Re: I Don't Know But I Know
Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:45 pm
Kyle Anderson would need to hit like 25 3’s in a row to change how teams play him on the perimeter. He should play his game like he has for years and he has been fairly successful.Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:22 am Well done, FNG! I don’t KNOW anything. But I’ll tell you what I THINK on each of your points:
I don't know if Ant will ever be an efficient scorer, but I do know he has the second lowest TS% (just a titch ahead of Donavan Mitchell) of the current top 20 scorers.
What I think: I think Ant’s scoring will be efficient enough for him to be the best player on a championship team and end up in the Hall of Fame. His career TS is already higher than Kobe’s, Wade’s and Drexler’s. I also think Ant’s TS will continue to improve and end up on par with the best scorers among his contemporaries. MJ, Kobe, LeBron, Drexler, Butler, Murray, K. Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and SGA all had TS percentages in their first four years that were below their career percentages. Note the shooting efficiency of the top NBA scorers typically doesn’t peak until their 5th, 6th or sometimes their 7th season. You can see the TS% pattern with nearly all the top scorers in the game (past and present). They all start lower and ramp up, eventually peaking around their 5th or 6th season and then plateauing around their peak TS for at least several years thereafter before starting to decline. Ant’s progression year to year in his first 4 years has actually been better than most of the great scorers I looked at. Ant’s progression has been linear - improving significantly in each of his first four seasons.
I don't know if JMac will ever earn enough trust from Finchie to get significant minutes as backup PG, but I do know that we outscore our opponent during almost every stint he is on the court.
What I think: I think that Finchie should be fired if he doesn’t trust JMac enough to give him significant minutes as our backup PG. That’s not hyperbole. As you know, I’m a big Finchie fan and staunch defender of Finch. But a continuing failure to recognize JMac’s value as a backup PG and continued reliance on Shake or anyone else on this current roster to back up Conley would indicate a large unacceptable blind spot in our head coach.
I don't know if Naz Reid will ever be an adequate enough defender to be a consistent positive contributor, but I do know that he is a productive offensive force with a 62.7% TS%.
What I think: I think Naz has already improved defensively compared to prior seasons and I expect that improvement to continue. Reid’s defense improved significantly late last season the moment Finch started playing him at the PF spot next to KAT or Rudy. Naz is typically overmatched defensively against centers. But his quick feet and athleticism give him the tools to guard in space and hold his own against most of the League’s PFs. I watched the replay of the Houston game last night and thought Naz was actually terrific defensively. He doesn’t have to be great defensively. We have Rudy, Jaden, Ant, NAW and Slo Mo for that. He just needs to be pretty good and I’m confident he can be. In fact, he could end up very good defensively.
I don't know if SloMo can make 35% of the threes he attempts, but I do know defenses will mostly ignore him if he doesn't at least try them.
What I think: I don’t think Slo Mo can make 35% (or even 30%) his three attempts. I also think I’d rather not see him try unless he’s nailing those shots in practice. I just don’t see him making those threes at an high enough clip to draw any attention, which means defenses will probably ignore him even if he tries. Slo Mo adds a lot of value to this team. So I’m torn on whether to try to re-sign him beyond this season. And while I’m not anxious to trade him by this season’s deadline, I’m not completely averse to trading him either if we get enough in return. On balance, I’d prefer to keep him. .
I don't know if we can expect 36-year-old Mike Conley to continue to play at the high level he is playing at this year, but I do know that LeBron James is three years older and playing at a very high level (2.7 VORP)
What I think: I think Conley can continue at his current level beyond this season, but I’m not sure whether that’s one season or two and I’m not entirely confident even about next season. Father Time is undefeated and I’ve noticed that older players tend to decline suddenly, not gradually when then get into their mid to late 30s. Conley looks like a guy with a young body, but you never know. So I think we need a succession plan, which means we need a young PG with high-end potential to eventually replace Conley and the need could arise as soon as next season.
I don't know that win shares is a valid way to evaluate value and performance, but I do know that the two guys TC brought in from Utah (Gobert and Conley) have the best WS on the squad this season (at 4.4 and 4, respectively).
What I think: I don’t think win shares alone is a solid basis for evaluating performance; although it’s not entirely invalid as a measure of a player’s value. I think Rudy and Conley had been terrific this season and two keys among others to our success so far. But I think it’s safe to say we would not be in first place (or anywhere close to first place) if we had lost KAT again this season or if Edwards wasn’t here. I don’t think we’d be in first without NAW’s stellar defense and timely buckets this season.
I don't know if we are the best team in the West or if Boston is the best team in the East, but I know that Bill Parcells once said "you are what your record says you are" and the Wolves and the Celtics currently have the best records in their divisions.
What I think: I think Bill Parcells was right.
How long will Conley be able to stay effective? One thing is he doesn’t rely on wild athletic ability to be successful. To me the question is how much will the Wolves have to pay him to come back? Let’s say he signs for $8 million a year for 2 years with a 3rd year option. I would be fine taking that bet that he can still be effective at that amount. I would guess he resigns for more than that but how much? The Wolves tried to find a possible replacement in Moore, Shake or even I suppose a really long shot in Nix. NAW has been a success as a depth guy but is unlikely to be good enough to be a starter. Connelly has made some savvy moves and not everything has worked out either. Keep in mind Connelly made a pretty good move adding Aaron Gordon to Denver for the amount of assets the Wolves could be able to move in a deal for a young player. Even if Conley has say 2 more years of solid play left in him and the Wolves resign him I think everyone would agree the Wolves need another guard added to the roster. I have a decent amount of faith that Connelly can make a move to make that happen.
