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Re: Wolves' Bench

Posted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 11:31 am
by FNG
Lipoli390 wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 12:49 am
FNG wrote: Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:37 am Thanks for teeing up this interesting thread, Carlos.

I agree that +/- is probably the best way to evaluate a bench...you want them to at least maintain leads (or not increase deficits) while they are in there, and our positive .5 meets that goal. We do lag Boston and OkC though.

I don't know that bench PPG is the most meaningful stat because of the difference in MPG. I would compare points per minute instead. And it's not surprising that the Clippers lead with future HOFer Westbrook coming off the bench (but it's also not surprising that the Clippers are second to last in +/- given Russ's subpar defense.

The Wolves then rank second to the Clippers in points per minute at 1.93...doesn't that tell us that our offensive firepower off the bench is just fine?
If that stat tells us our offensive firepower off the bench is adequate, then our starting lineup must be woefully lacking in offensive firepower because this Wolves team has the 5th fewest points per game in the NBA. We’re still a good team with our League-leading defense. But we’re not a championship contender with that sort of relative offensive production. Maybe it’s the bench, maybe it’s the starting lineup, or maybe it’s a combination of the two. In any case, it’s really bad.
Lip. there's no question that we don't score as many points as most of the teams in the league...that's a fact. But I think where you and I disagree is that I am perhaps more of a fan of a stingy defense than you are. The ultimate goal of a team is to score more points than the opponent, but there are two ways to do it: you can outscore an opponent with a productive offense (hello Indiana), or you can outscore an opponent with a stifling defense (hello Minnesota). The interesting thing about the Wolves is that they do it both ways depending on who is on the court. The starters outscore the opponent through defense, and the reserves narrowly outscore the opponent through offense. The starters defend the perimeter and the rim so well that our opponent very often has to use the entire 24 seconds before getting a shot off...this results in fewer offensive possessions for our offense, and accordingly, fewer points scored despite a very good EFG%. Unfortunately our starters' offense also contributes to the low PPG. Even though our starters are elite shooters (again, the stats don't lie here), the combination of excessive turnovers and incessant dribbling by Ant also negatively impact our PPG.

Our reserves are a different story, and it has a lot to do with Naz Reid. He is a very productive scorer, and is the main reason our reserves average more points per minute than any contender other than the Clippers. But he's also easy to target on defense. Fortunately Naz's improving offensive game combined with a couple good defenders off the bench (SloMo and NAW) allow our bench to still slightly outscore our opponent, and that has been a big factor in our great start this year.

But the hole in my enthusiastic argument is there is one team out there that has both a high-scoring offense and a very good defense...the Boston Celtics. They are 4th in the league both in points scored and fewest points given up, and that is why they are have the best record in the Association right now. I don't like our chances in and NBA finals against a balanced team like the Celtics. But all things considered, I prefer a dominant defensive team (that can also shoot ) over a team that is more mediocre on defense. And that's why the Wolves are still my pick to come out of the West this season, barring a significant injury.

Re: Wolves' Bench

Posted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 12:06 pm
by TheFuture
The one thing that can be the Celtics downfall vs. us is Porzingis' health. Tatum, Horford, Kornet battling KAT, Rudy, and Naz? Easy win in the frontcourt.

Their backcourt/wing defense is a problem with Holiday, White, and Brown. Just tell Jrue that he has one job all series: stop Ant. Any foul trouble? Slot in White or Brown.

There is no reason that team should not win the Finals this year if healthy. Best 1 through 6 team in the league, and I don't think it's particularly close.

Re: Wolves' Bench

Posted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 12:49 pm
by FNG
Future, you make a good point about the importance of Porzingis to the Celtics...he's been terrific this year, but he's always been fragile, and his hurt again. But then I was surprised to see that Boston is 10-2 in the games he has missed this season. Kornet and Horford have apparently provided enough size to help them cope with the loss of Porzingis. He's going to miss a few games now again, and it will be interesting to see how Boston does without him.

Re: Wolves' Bench

Posted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 2:18 pm
by Q-is-here
FNG wrote: Sat Jan 27, 2024 12:49 pm Future, you make a good point about the importance of Porzingis to the Celtics...he's been terrific this year, but he's always been fragile, and his hurt again. But then I was surprised to see that Boston is 10-2 in the games he has missed this season. Kornet and Horford have apparently provided enough size to help them cope with the loss of Porzingis. He's going to miss a few games now again, and it will be interesting to see how Boston does without him.
Size is overrated. Look at OKC. And as you said, Boston does just fine without Porzingis using just Horford and Kornet.

Skilled size like what we have is great, so I'm not suggesting we blow things up, but we've seen the downside of trying to jam the ball into the paint to Rudy or KAT's mud runs and the TOs it leads to versus a 5-out system where the ball is moving and guys have a ton of space for a drive and kick game.