Key Individual Stats Tracker - '24-25 Season

[Q-is-here]

20-game update below:

Player - PER/WS48/VORP/Net Rating
Ant - 18.8/.111/.9/+1.1
Rudy - 16.0/.178/.4/+5.2
Randle - 18.7/.152/.6/+.3
Jaden - 9.9/.068/0.0/-2.4
DDV - 10.0/.047/.1/+2.1
Naz - 16.7/.138/0.4/+3.0
NAW - 13.9/.131/.4//+9.3
Conley - 12.8/.112/.2/+6.1


PER - Very much individual box-score driven and rewards volume more than efficiency. Doesn't really account for defense. This tends to reward higher usage offensive players and guys that get lots of counting stats.
WS/48 - Combines individual box-score stats with team performance; tends to reward efficiency as much as volume; tries to apportion team performance to individual players, so a great team defense for example tends to lift all boats (or weight them down if the defense is poor).
VORP - Value over Replacement Player. This extrapolates from box score stats and takes into account actual minutes played, so it helps recognize that starters have to carry a bigger load.
Net Rating - Team points per 100 possessions minus opponent points per 100 possessions while player is on the floor, per NBA.com.

[Q-is-here]

Commentary:

- By far the most concerning thing to me is how dependent we are on Rudy and Conley to play winning basketball. The hope was that Ant, Jaden, and to a lesser degree Naz would grow into leadership roles and make more winning plays and fewer losing plays. That hasn't happened to the degree we need it to.

- I'm going to exonerate Ant of 50% of the blame, with the other 50% him needing to own. The Wolves starting lineup may be one of the worst fits possible for his offensive skill-set. In order to maximize Randle, he has to touch the ball a bunch, which limits Ant's ability to make plays. And when he does touch the ball, he is looking to "get his", often missing open guys or throwing sloppy passes. Then there is the wall of bodies in the paint because teams don't need to worry about Rudy shooting and Randle and Jaden require only soft close outs. Just a terrible combination of player personnel for our most talented offensive player.

- Randle is putting up solid box score stats, but you can see how our net rating isn't all that great when he's out there. How much does his presence limit what others can do?

- I'm confident Jaden is going to continue to start, but he's at risk of being a starter in name only. My guess is that Finch and the coaches have told Jaden to just go back to doing what he does best - be a defensive stopper and don't worry so much about everything else. The problem is he's playing like Matisse Thybulle, but paid like Aaron Gordon. Not good.

- I really think as long as Finch (and Connelly) keep this starting personnel unit in tact, it severely limits the ceiling of the team. It just isn't good enough offensively, even if they can re-kindle their defensive identity.

[FNG]

Yep, fortunately Rudy hasn't missed any games yet, but we are certainly lost without Daddy...now 10-6 when Mike plays (a 51-win pace) and 0-4 when he doesn't.

And of course I'm going to point out where Ant ranks on the team in some of the broader deep stats:

WS/48: 6th out of our main 8, only ahead of woeful Jaden and underperforming Donte.
Net rating: Again 6th out of 8, only ahead of Jaden and Julius.

I challenge anyone to find another face of a contending franchise who ranks so low on his own team. The guy can score, but he's just not doing enough to help us win ball games.

While I'm pretty sure we don't have much of a chance of winning a game if either Rudy or Mike is out, I think we could be competitive if any of the other 6 missed a game. Even Ant or NAW (who I would argue is our best player this season). It's great to have terrific wing depth, but our lack of a backup center and PG is scary.

[Lipoli390]

Commentary:

- By far the most concerning thing to me is how dependent we are on Rudy and Conley to play winning basketball. The hope was that Ant, Jaden, and to a lesser degree Naz would grow into leadership roles and make more winning plays and fewer losing plays. That hasn't happened to the degree we need it to.

- I'm going to exonerate Ant of 50% of the blame, with the other 50% him needing to own. The Wolves starting lineup may be one of the worst fits possible for his offensive skill-set. In order to maximize Randle, he has to touch the ball a bunch, which limits Ant's ability to make plays. And when he does touch the ball, he is looking to "get his", often missing open guys or throwing sloppy passes. Then there is the wall of bodies in the paint because teams don't need to worry about Rudy shooting and Randle and Jaden require only soft close outs. Just a terrible combination of player personnel for our most talented offensive player.

- Randle is putting up solid box score stats, but you can see how our net rating isn't all that great when he's out there. How much does his presence limit what others can do?

- I'm confident Jaden is going to continue to start, but he's at risk of being a starter in name only. My guess is that Finch and the coaches have told Jaden to just go back to doing what he does best - be a defensive stopper and don't worry so much about everything else. The problem is he's playing like Matisse Thybulle, but paid like Aaron Gordon. Not good.

- I really think as long as Finch (and Connelly) keep this starting personnel unit in tact, it severely limits the ceiling of the team. It just isn't good enough offensively, even if they can re-kindle their defensive identity.

I agree, Q. Note that Ant is averaging 4.7 free-throw attempts per game. Compare that to the average FTAs of the top players on winning teams this season: Jaylen Brown 7.7; Jason Tatum 7.7; SGA 8.3, Jalen Brunson 6.5. Given his physically gifts, Ant should get to the line more than Brown or Tatum and at least as much as SGA. When you have a star you need to build your offense - personnel and style - around that star’s strengths to optimize his value to the team. It’s obvious the Wolves are not doing that. Having a player with Ant’s talent is a gift. This organization is squandering that gift. We really need to move Randle and possibly move Jaden. And we’d better hope that Rudy stays healthy. He and NAW have been our salvation so far this season.

[thedoper]

Ant has had the unique situation of being surrounded by offensive zeros minus another ball dominant player in Randle. As constructed defense will be our path to winning with this team as it was last year unless all of DDV, Conley and Jaden start hitting shots. Ant isnt going to get an uptick in advanced stats until or if that happens. I actually think its impressive that in spite of the below average offensive numbers of multiple key players getting minutes that Ant still has a positive net rating, when his shooting has dipped a bit too as of late.

[Phenom]

Ant has had the unique situation of being surrounded by offensive zeros minus another ball dominant player in Randle. As constructed defense will be our path to winning with this team as it was last year unless all of DDV, Conley and Jaden start hitting shots. Ant isnt going to get an uptick in advanced stats until or if that happens. I actually think its impressive that in spite of the below average offensive numbers of multiple key players getting minutes that Ant still has a positive net rating, when his shooting has dipped a bit too as of late.

I agree with this. It's felt like in most games if Ant doesn't make the shot, no one will. I hope the supporting cast can replicate their performance against the Lakers much more often

[Phenom]

Commentary:

- By far the most concerning thing to me is how dependent we are on Rudy and Conley to play winning basketball. The hope was that Ant, Jaden, and to a lesser degree Naz would grow into leadership roles and make more winning plays and fewer losing plays. That hasn't happened to the degree we need it to.

- I'm going to exonerate Ant of 50% of the blame, with the other 50% him needing to own. The Wolves starting lineup may be one of the worst fits possible for his offensive skill-set. In order to maximize Randle, he has to touch the ball a bunch, which limits Ant's ability to make plays. And when he does touch the ball, he is looking to "get his", often missing open guys or throwing sloppy passes. Then there is the wall of bodies in the paint because teams don't need to worry about Rudy shooting and Randle and Jaden require only soft close outs. Just a terrible combination of player personnel for our most talented offensive player.

- Randle is putting up solid box score stats, but you can see how our net rating isn't all that great when he's out there. How much does his presence limit what others can do?

- I'm confident Jaden is going to continue to start, but he's at risk of being a starter in name only. My guess is that Finch and the coaches have told Jaden to just go back to doing what he does best - be a defensive stopper and don't worry so much about everything else. The problem is he's playing like Matisse Thybulle, but paid like Aaron Gordon. Not good.

- I really think as long as Finch (and Connelly) keep this starting personnel unit in tact, it severely limits the ceiling of the team. It just isn't good enough offensively, even if they can re-kindle their defensive identity.

I agree, Q. Note that Ant is averaging 4.7 free-throw attempts per game. Compare that to the average FTAs of the top players on winning teams this season: Jaylen Brown 7.7; Jason Tatum 7.7; SGA 8.3, Jalen Brunson 6.5. Given his physically gifts, Ant should get to the line more than Brown or Tatum and at least as much as SGA. When you have a star you need to build your offense - personnel and style - around that star’s strengths to optimize his value to the team. It’s obvious the Wolves are not doing that. Having a player with Ant’s talent is a gift. This organization is squandering that gift. We really need to move Randle and possibly move Jaden. And we’d better hope that Rudy stays healthy. He and NAW have been our salvation so far this season.

What do we make of the league's targeted and celebrated decrease in FTAs across the board in conjunction with Ant's increase in 3PA? Ant has generally received a depressed whistle to begin with.

[Q-is-here]

Commentary:

- By far the most concerning thing to me is how dependent we are on Rudy and Conley to play winning basketball. The hope was that Ant, Jaden, and to a lesser degree Naz would grow into leadership roles and make more winning plays and fewer losing plays. That hasn't happened to the degree we need it to.

- I'm going to exonerate Ant of 50% of the blame, with the other 50% him needing to own. The Wolves starting lineup may be one of the worst fits possible for his offensive skill-set. In order to maximize Randle, he has to touch the ball a bunch, which limits Ant's ability to make plays. And when he does touch the ball, he is looking to "get his", often missing open guys or throwing sloppy passes. Then there is the wall of bodies in the paint because teams don't need to worry about Rudy shooting and Randle and Jaden require only soft close outs. Just a terrible combination of player personnel for our most talented offensive player.

- Randle is putting up solid box score stats, but you can see how our net rating isn't all that great when he's out there. How much does his presence limit what others can do?

- I'm confident Jaden is going to continue to start, but he's at risk of being a starter in name only. My guess is that Finch and the coaches have told Jaden to just go back to doing what he does best - be a defensive stopper and don't worry so much about everything else. The problem is he's playing like Matisse Thybulle, but paid like Aaron Gordon. Not good.

- I really think as long as Finch (and Connelly) keep this starting personnel unit in tact, it severely limits the ceiling of the team. It just isn't good enough offensively, even if they can re-kindle their defensive identity.

I agree, Q. Note that Ant is averaging 4.7 free-throw attempts per game. Compare that to the average FTAs of the top players on winning teams this season: Jaylen Brown 7.7; Jason Tatum 7.7; SGA 8.3, Jalen Brunson 6.5. Given his physically gifts, Ant should get to the line more than Brown or Tatum and at least as much as SGA. When you have a star you need to build your offense - personnel and style - around that star’s strengths to optimize his value to the team. It’s obvious the Wolves are not doing that. Having a player with Ant’s talent is a gift. This organization is squandering that gift. We really need to move Randle and possibly move Jaden. And we’d better hope that Rudy stays healthy. He and NAW have been our salvation so far this season.

What do we make of the league's targeted and celebrated decrease in FTAs across the board in conjunction with Ant's increase in 3PA? Ant has generally received a depressed whistle to begin with.

The starting lineup has had to adjust to Julius Randle's game and Ant needs to be a floor spacer when Randle has the ball, which is a lot. Additionally, there just isn't as much room to drive the ball and get to the line without good floor spacing, which the combination of Rudy, Julius, and Jaden hurt. I think those factors are a much bigger reason for Ant's decrease in FTAs than the league's less generous whistle for offensive players.

[Lipoli390]

I agree, Q. Note that Ant is averaging 4.7 free-throw attempts per game. Compare that to the average FTAs of the top players on winning teams this season: Jaylen Brown 7.7; Jason Tatum 7.7; SGA 8.3, Jalen Brunson 6.5. Given his physically gifts, Ant should get to the line more than Brown or Tatum and at least as much as SGA. When you have a star you need to build your offense - personnel and style - around that star’s strengths to optimize his value to the team. It’s obvious the Wolves are not doing that. Having a player with Ant’s talent is a gift. This organization is squandering that gift. We really need to move Randle and possibly move Jaden. And we’d better hope that Rudy stays healthy. He and NAW have been our salvation so far this season.

What do we make of the league's targeted and celebrated decrease in FTAs across the board in conjunction with Ant's increase in 3PA? Ant has generally received a depressed whistle to begin with.

The starting lineup has had to adjust to Julius Randle's game and Ant needs to be a floor spacer when Randle has the ball, which is a lot. Additionally, there just isn't as much room to drive the ball and get to the line without good floor spacing, which the combination of Rudy, Julius, and Jaden hurt. I think those factors are a much bigger reason for Ant's decrease in FTAs than the league's less generous whistle for offensive players.

I agree, Q. And to back up your assessment, I’ll point again to SGA’s 8.3 FTAs, Tatum’s 7.7, Brown’s 7.7 and Brunson’s 6.5. Ant averaged 6.2 FTAs last season. His drop to 4.7 clearly reflects the change from KAT to Randle. There can be no doubt that having Randle, Rudy and Jaden on the floor with Ant results in poor spacing for Ant to take full advantage of his ability to drive the lane and draw fouls. Credit to Ant for working hard to make himself a really good 3-point shooter, but his greatness offensively is optimized when he’s attacking the rim and drawing fouls.

[Lipoli390]

I think we need to have a little more perspective when evaluating Ant’s play so far this season. Others have mentioned a few of the key factors to keep in mind. Bottom line is that I don’t think there’s any solid basis for concluding that Ant isn’t a great player or potentially the best player on a championship caliber team. Consider the following:

1. Ant actually WAS the best player on a championship contending Wolves team last season when he was only 22 years old. This point alone should quiet the criticism.

2. Ant has had to endure major personnel changes - adjusting to Rudy, adjusting from DLO to Conley and then adjusting to Randle replacing KAT. That’s a lot of change that other stars haven’t had to endure.

3. Without KAT, Ant doesn’t have another star on the roster and some might question whether KAT was another star on par with what Tatum has in Brown, what Curry had in Thompson, what LeBron had in Kyrie or Wade, what Kobe had in Shaq or what MJ had in Pippen. SGA has Jalen Williams and no one on the current Wolves roster is playing at anything close to the level of Jalen Williams overall.

4. As others have mentioned, Ant is significantly younger than stars like SGA who Ant is being compared to. And as others have pointed out, some of the best players of all time didn’t take their teams into championship contention until their mid to late 20s.

Postscript: I recall that many were questioning whether KG was a true superstar who could be the best player on a championship contender until we finally made the Western Conference finals in 2004. The different that season of course was the addition of two all-star caliber players in Sprewell and Cassell. The next season when Sam and Spree checked out mentally, the Wolves fell out of contention. The Wolves then sent KG to Boston where he became the best player on a championship team. The difference? KG had Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. Ant is 23 and has Rudy and Randle. Hmm.