Minnesota Sports Forum

Phenom wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 2:55 pm We probably need a new thread titled Randle or NAW, can't keep both. One of these guys needs to be traded. Many have outlined the Randle trade complicating factors. I tend to believe Finch and Julius are in this together.

If that is the case you absolutely do not like NAW walk this summer. You offer him to the highest bidder and let all these teams that want to win now give you a first or a young piece. His shooting and defense will translate to ANY team. It would be an absolute travesty to hold onto NAW knowing that you will let him walk this summer.

60WinTim wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 3:12 pm I am officially off the "Randle does not fit" bandwagon. How in the hell are you going to replace everything he is able to do?!? Checking out his per 36 minutes stats:

- Our second leading scorer behind ANT
- Our second leading assist guy behind Conley
- Our second leading rebounder behind Rudy
- Our leading player drawing fouls (and second in FT% behind Conley)
- A reasonable 3pt % for spacing

He is a legit starting PF. NAZ does not check all those boxes. And we aren't finding someone who checks all those boxes in free agency that we can afford.

We were all on the "Randle does not fit" bandwagon early in the season because of the lengthy "pounding the ball on offense" times, the defensive lapses (effort) on defense, and a lack of Rudy-chemistry. But kudos to Randle for cleaning up those deficiencies, as many have noticed in recent weeks. My expectation is Randle will do a similar "opt out and sign an extension" that Rudy did last offseason. Worst case is the extension starts at 31 mil, but hopefully starts well under 30 mil in exchange for more years with raises (unlike his previous declining contract).

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 3:56 pm

60WinTim wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 3:12 pm I am officially off the "Randle does not fit" bandwagon. How in the hell are you going to replace everything he is able to do?!? Checking out his per 36 minutes stats:

- Our second leading scorer behind ANT
- Our second leading assist guy behind Conley
- Our second leading rebounder behind Rudy
- Our leading player drawing fouls (and second in FT% behind Conley)
- A reasonable 3pt % for spacing

He is a legit starting PF. NAZ does not check all those boxes. And we aren't finding someone who checks all those boxes in free agency that we can afford.

We were all on the "Randle does not fit" bandwagon early in the season because of the lengthy "pounding the ball on offense" times, the defensive lapses (effort) on defense, and a lack of Rudy-chemistry. But kudos to Randle for cleaning up those deficiencies, as many have noticed in recent weeks. My expectation is Randle will do a similar "opt out and sign an extension" that Rudy did last offseason. Worst case is the extension starts at 31 mil, but hopefully starts well under 30 mil in exchange for more years with raises (unlike his previous declining contract).

How did we do it last year when KAT was out for 18 games during the stretch run of the season? We went 12-6 and had an offensive rating of 115.3, which was 12th best during that stretch. Our defense was 4th best.

And guess who started at PF for most of those games? Naz Reid! And he shared the position with the very offensively limited Kyle Anderson.

I'm pretty sure we can survive without Julius. The point isn't that he is having a bad season individually. I just think his absence would lead to enhanced play by others.

60WinTim wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 4:38 pm

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 3:56 pm

60WinTim wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 3:12 pm I am officially off the "Randle does not fit" bandwagon. How in the hell are you going to replace everything he is able to do?!? Checking out his per 36 minutes stats:

- Our second leading scorer behind ANT
- Our second leading assist guy behind Conley
- Our second leading rebounder behind Rudy
- Our leading player drawing fouls (and second in FT% behind Conley)
- A reasonable 3pt % for spacing

He is a legit starting PF. NAZ does not check all those boxes. And we aren't finding someone who checks all those boxes in free agency that we can afford.

We were all on the "Randle does not fit" bandwagon early in the season because of the lengthy "pounding the ball on offense" times, the defensive lapses (effort) on defense, and a lack of Rudy-chemistry. But kudos to Randle for cleaning up those deficiencies, as many have noticed in recent weeks. My expectation is Randle will do a similar "opt out and sign an extension" that Rudy did last offseason. Worst case is the extension starts at 31 mil, but hopefully starts well under 30 mil in exchange for more years with raises (unlike his previous declining contract).

How did we do it last year when KAT was out for 18 games during the stretch run of the season? We went 12-6 and had an offensive rating of 115.3, which was 12th best during that stretch. Our defense was 4th best.

And guess who started at PF for most of those games? Naz Reid! And he shared the position with the very offensively limited Kyle Anderson.

I'm pretty sure we can survive without Julius. The point isn't that he is having a bad season individually. I just think his absence would lead to enhanced play by others.

Yeah, but that is actually a pretty lousy sample size, with lots of games against tanking teams and teams missing a key player. I am not taking much solace in that 12-6 record.

There is no question KAT is the superior player to Randle. But TC did address one of our deficiencies that showed in the playoffs -- another playmaker on the floor in addition to ANT. KAT could hit 3s and get tough inside baskets. But he wasn't great at being a playmaker for himself or others, not as good as Randle.

I think we will see our offensive efficiency climb as the season goes on. You're right that a few of our players had tough starts to the season, and the addition of Randle is partly to blame. But it isn't because Randle made them worse, it's because the team needed time to develop their chemistry. We'll see if that offensive efficiency continues to climb...

WildWolf2813 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 9:08 pm I don't believe in the notion of making a trade for the purpose of keeping NAW. Enjoy NAW the rest of the year, but he's a goner no matter what. You can try to keep Reid at a higher price point than expected, but I'd argue keeping NAW is pretty irresponsible financially. We can't have a lineup of near max to max guys everywhere and then a bench of $10+ mil guys everywhere else. Shannon was drafted to replace NAW, and if you don't believe that, cool, then DiVincenzo is here to replace NAW. We drafted Clark for the possibility that can replicate NAW at a super cheap cost. This franchise is gonna have to get production from their cheap guys. To avoid that is to call out the farce that is our goal of having flexibility. Flexibility comes from Minott, Miller, Dillingham, Shannon, Clark, one of them, maybe even two, offering you rotational player value while they're cheap. Having a bunch of $10 mil a year guys that you're hesitant to part with only works if you're willing to part with McDaniels or Reid which nobody really wants to do.

Monster wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 12:54 pm a couple scearios or possible things than could happen this offseason that have not been mentioned.

1. Randle opts in and the Wolves trade him. He would be a good player ona 1 year deal and of some team that might be a good option. Think about a team like Detroit this last offseason. They might have taken him for nothing or sending back something with a smaller salary. There tends to be a couple teams hoping to take a step and add a vet player. Randle can be frustrating but I have not heard anything about him being a bad guy.

2. NAW sign and trade to a team that either can't pay the mid level or a team that needs to trade more than the mid-level to sign him. Of course this is tricky considering the Wolves salary situation but we saw a bunch of creative sign and trades last offseason so I would not be shocked to see it happen again.

Its been mentioned that Randle couple possibly be dealt next season to a team that wants him. Thats another option and one where the Wolves in that deal could find a way to drop below the 2nd apron. The Lakers did that in dealing Russell a few weeks ago. What if the Wolves say screw the 2nd Apron we are gonna keep as much talent as we can? That's not impossible right? if the Wolves resign guys to contracts they feel like can be moved they could reconfigure the roster. I do agree this is somewhat unlikely. Doing it to keep NAW might make sense.

I'm more interested in look at what we can get out of this trade deadline than looking pretty much at just future situations due to financial constraints. Is there any reasonable players that might be able to be acquired?

kekgeek wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 12:02 pm

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 11:25 am Thanks for starting this thread, FNG. My guess is that the Wolves won’t trade Julius or make any other major trades by the deadline. I actually think it’s more likely they’ll trade NAW by the deadline since, other than Ant or Jaden, he’d yield us the biggest return. It would also avoid the prospect of losing NAW for nothing, which is exactly what would happen in the likely event Julius opts in and we sign Naz.

I haven’t listened to the podcast on our cap situation yet, but here’s the cap situation based on my review:

Projected salary thresholds for next season are (1) $154.6M salary cap; (2) 187.9M luxury tax; (3) $195.9 1st apron; and (4) $207.8M 2nd apron. These are maximums increases under the CBA (10% higher than this season) and could be less.

Keep in mind that 1st apron restrictions, while not quite as bad as 2nd apron limits, are pretty harsh and include among other things: (1) not being able to use the full MLE; (2) not being allowed to take back more than outgoing salary in trades; (3) can’t acquire sign-and-trade players unless doing so moves team below the 1st apron, etc.

Assuming Julius ops in and we pick up Garza’s $2.6 million option, our total payroll will be right around $175 million for a roster of 11 players without Naz. Assuming we sign Naz for around $30 million, that would put our payroll at $205 million, which would put us only $2.8 million below the 2nd apron without NAW and with two roster spots to fill to get to 14. I believe that each vet minimum contract will count $2.08 million against the salary cap. That means would not be able to get our roster to 14 even if we simply signed players to vet minimum deals. Hopefully we’ll be able to sign Naz for closer to $25 million, in which case we’d end up with a total payroll of around $205 million for 14 players without NAW. We’d stay barely under the 2nd apron (assuming the threshold increases by the maximum 10% allowed) but we’d still be over the 1st apron.

I’m not sure what Dane Moore was projecting in his podcast, but the reality is what I’ve provided in this post. Assuming we don’t trade Randle, the best case scenario is keeping Naz at a bargain contract starting at $25 million but losing NAW and unable to make any moves to improve the roster after a season that will likely end with a 5th seed at best. And again, that assumes the cap goes up by the full 10% allowed. Even then, we’d still be over the 1st apron and severely restricted by the CBA both transactionally and financially. If we’re honest with ourselves, keeping Randle and Rudy doesn’t make sense even if Finch thinks it makes sense on the court.

So I’m hoping Finch’s comments are not indicative of an intent to keep Randle. Finch praised KAT a lot last season and yet we traded him before this season. I see no reason to read a lot into Finch’s recent comments about Randle. I think he likes Randle and values Randle’s production as he should. But that doesn’t mean Randle’s a good fit on the court for this team or that it makes sense organizationally to keep him.

As for me, I’d be reluctant to trade Randle this season if it meant giving up the Detroit pick, which now looks destined to be a 1st rounder either this year or next. I think there’s a chance we can trade Randle for less salary without giving up more than a future 2nd round pick. Randle’s a very good player; just not a good fit for us. If we can’t trade Randle this season without giving up the Detroit pick, another future 1st or multiple 2nds, then I’d probably keep Randle and trade NAW by the deadline mainly for draft capital and/or a good PG then I’d hope we can squeeze in under the 2nd apron and hopefully get below the 1st apron by the 2026-27 season. Randle will have more trade value next February as an expiring contract than he has now.

You should listen to the pod Lip. It's a really good breakdown. They were projecting Naz at 24 million and Naw at 15 million (Just over the MLE). They also believe Naz at 24 million might be a high projection because there is not many teams in the NBA with cap space this offseason (Nets are the scary team in all of this) and with Naz weaknesses and how the CBA now works giving a player like NAZ a big contract is franchise suicide and they think he could get near 20 million.

You have brought up trading NAW multiple times. What do you want to trade NAW for because they can't receive more money back in a trade so that pretty much eliminates every single player with value in the NBA coming back. Im not sure they could get a late first (I think it would be close), would you trade for 3 2nds like DFS was traded for?

But you should listen to the podcast so you can hear a really good breakdown on it (I did break it down 2 weeks ago also on this forum).

Everything comes down does Julius opt in or not (We do not know what he wants to do)

WildWolf2813 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 9:08 pm I don't believe in the notion of making a trade for the purpose of keeping NAW. Enjoy NAW the rest of the year, but he's a goner no matter what. You can try to keep Reid at a higher price point than expected, but I'd argue keeping NAW is pretty irresponsible financially. We can't have a lineup of near max to max guys everywhere and then a bench of $10+ mil guys everywhere else. Shannon was drafted to replace NAW, and if you don't believe that, cool, then DiVincenzo is here to replace NAW. We drafted Clark for the possibility that can replicate NAW at a super cheap cost. This franchise is gonna have to get production from their cheap guys. To avoid that is to call out the farce that is our goal of having flexibility. Flexibility comes from Minott, Miller, Dillingham, Shannon, Clark, one of them, maybe even two, offering you rotational player value while they're cheap. Having a bunch of $10 mil a year guys that you're hesitant to part with only works if you're willing to part with McDaniels or Reid which nobody really wants to do.