Series Primer Wolves and Lakers

[FNG]

I hear a lot about the Lakers having 3 of the best 4 players in this series, but while LeBron again put up impressive raw stats (24/8/8), there is a lot of evidence (both eye test and statistically) that he is not close to the player he used to be...and maybe not even someone we need to fear in this series. The Lakers were a significant 6.9 points per 100 possessions worse this season when LeBron was on the court compared to when he was off. This ranked him 12th out of 13 Lakers who played more than 100 minutes, only better than Cam Reddish who was waived last month. To further demonstrate how far his effectiveness has fallen, this was the first time in his 22 seasons that he has had a negative on/off! A lot of this has to do that Father Time is undefeated, and he looks too old to be effective on defense (opponents score 4.1 more points per 100 when he is out there), but it should also be noted that the Lakers also scored 2.8 fewer points per 100 when he was out there.

It's only fair to point out that the Wolves two highest scorers, Randle and Ant, also had negative on/off numbers this season, a stat I would attribute to each of them often not showing up consistently on the defensive side of the ball. But I'm not too worried about that. Ant has shown a tendency to greatly elevate his game in the playoffs...he was a spectacular +21.4 on/off throughout the playoffs and was brilliant on defense. I expect him to be dialed in on defense this series, and to be a big positive contributor like last year. Similarly, we have all seen how different Randle can look on defense when he cares, and I think he is going to really care. I don't question LeBron's competitiveness or effort, but being 40 limits his ability to step up on defense like Ant and Ju can. He's probably going to draw Randle as a defensive assignment, and we need Ju to be able to exploit that matchup.

[Q-is-here]

I hear a lot about the Lakers having 3 of the best 4 players in this series, but while LeBron again put up impressive raw stats (24/8/8), there is a lot of evidence (both eye test and statistically) that he is not close to the player he used to be...and maybe not even someone we need to fear in this series. The Lakers were a significant 6.9 points per 100 possessions worse this season when LeBron was on the court compared to when he was off. This ranked him 12th out of 13 Lakers who played more than 100 minutes, only better than Cam Reddish who was waived last month. To further demonstrate how far his effectiveness has fallen, this was the first time in his 22 seasons that he has had a negative on/off! A lot of this has to do that Father Time is undefeated, and he looks too old to be effective on defense (opponents score 4.1 more points per 100 when he is out there), but it should also be noted that the Lakers also scored 2.8 fewer points per 100 when he was out there.

It's only fair to point out that the Wolves two highest scorers, Randle and Ant, also had negative on/off numbers this season, a stat I would attribute to each of them often not showing up consistently on the defensive side of the ball. But I'm not too worried about that. Ant has shown a tendency to greatly elevate his game in the playoffs...he was a spectacular +21.4 on/off throughout the playoffs and was brilliant on defense. I expect him to be dialed in on defense this series, and to be a big positive contributor like last year. Similarly, we have all seen how different Randle can look on defense when he cares, and I think he is going to really care. I don't question LeBron's competitiveness or effort, but being 40 limits his ability to step up on defense like Ant and Ju can. He's probably going to draw Randle as a defensive assignment, and we need Ju to be able to exploit that matchup.

LeBron isn't the player he used to be, but he's basically gone from "second best ever" to top 15. I'm actually pretty stunned at how well he still produces at his age.

But to your point, I am really hoping Finch is willing to extend the bench a bit, look to run, and really go at LeBron and Doncic when they are on defense. Play the long game and wear these guys down for the back half of the series. But if we just play a methodical, half-court game and jack up tons of 3s, they are going to pick us apart.