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Re: Lakers heavy betting favorites over Wolves

Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2025 7:51 pm
by Q-is-here
Coolbreeze44 wrote: Thu Apr 17, 2025 6:51 pm
WildWolf2813 wrote: Thu Apr 17, 2025 5:54 pm Lakers in 6, but mainly because I don't think Randle shows up.
I agree with you on this, but I honestly believe the deck is just rigged against us. A Laker loss in round 1 would be a disaster for the NBA. I know this league is corrupt and they simply aren't going to let this Lebron-Luka-Tinseltown opportunity get away this year. They need the ratings, Lebron is almost done, and they have gotten away with similar things in the past. There might be an uproar about some egregious calls for a couple days, but they know that will fade away quickly. It wasn't that long ago the WNBA simply stole a championship from Minnesota for New York, and this series has far greater consequences than that one did. If you really want something close to fair and legitimate competition the NFL and NHL offer it. Sorry to be a Debbie Downer, but this isn't my first rodeo with this.
If you truly think it's rigged (meaning the NBA and refs association at the highest levels are conspiring to ensure a Laker victory), than why bother watching?

I personally think a highly orchestrated conspiracy would be too hard to keep under wraps. Too many people would need to know about it for it not to leak. Especially in this day and age.

What I do think is that there is built-in ref bias where most of them can't help but be influenced by the pro-Laker zeitgeist and the favorable star calls that the NBA has always had, even if they try to be objective. There is a reason juries are sequestered...

So I assume the Lakers will get a more generous whistle on both ends. But that's different than orders from on high to make it happen.

Re: Lakers heavy betting favorites over Wolves

Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2025 8:28 pm
by Coolbreeze44
Q-is-here wrote: Thu Apr 17, 2025 7:51 pm
Coolbreeze44 wrote: Thu Apr 17, 2025 6:51 pm
WildWolf2813 wrote: Thu Apr 17, 2025 5:54 pm Lakers in 6, but mainly because I don't think Randle shows up.
I agree with you on this, but I honestly believe the deck is just rigged against us. A Laker loss in round 1 would be a disaster for the NBA. I know this league is corrupt and they simply aren't going to let this Lebron-Luka-Tinseltown opportunity get away this year. They need the ratings, Lebron is almost done, and they have gotten away with similar things in the past. There might be an uproar about some egregious calls for a couple days, but they know that will fade away quickly. It wasn't that long ago the WNBA simply stole a championship from Minnesota for New York, and this series has far greater consequences than that one did. If you really want something close to fair and legitimate competition the NFL and NHL offer it. Sorry to be a Debbie Downer, but this isn't my first rodeo with this.
If you truly think it's rigged (meaning the NBA and refs association at the highest levels are conspiring to ensure a Laker victory), than why bother watching?

I personally think a highly orchestrated conspiracy would be too hard to keep under wraps. Too many people would need to know about it for it not to leak. Especially in this day and age.

What I do think is that there is built-in ref bias where most of them can't help but be influenced by the pro-Laker zeitgeist and the favorable star calls that the NBA has always had, even if they try to be objective. There is a reason juries are sequestered...

So I assume the Lakers will get a more generous whistle on both ends. But that's different than orders from on high to make it happen.
Q, it might be as simple as the president of league operations telling Albert Sanders that the Lakers better not lose a game due to officiating. It could be that small, it really doesn't require a huge orchestration of a carefully executed plan. I hope you realize there is corruption in sports, and the NBA in particular. No other league promotes it's stars to such a degree that they HAVE to get maximum exposure for them. They create the buzz, and then they capitalize on what they've created.

I'd bet my last dollar there have been discussions between the broadcast networks and the league regarding effective ways to boost ratings. Having the Timberwolves meet OKC in the conference finals isn't it.

To answer your question as to why I watch, there is a small part of me that believes it's possible the Wolves performance could be overwhelming enough where it would not be possible to take it from them. I remember the 1983 playoffs where my Bucks swept the favored Celtics. That series was not riggable. But there were several other series where I was kicked in the mouth as a fan due to one-sided officiating. I don't think it's as common today as it was in the 80's, when Stern was trying to build the business. But if there ever was a series vulnerable to some unscrupulous chicanery, I think this is the one.

Re: Lakers heavy betting favorites over Wolves

Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2025 9:47 pm
by Q-is-here
Coolbreeze44 wrote: Thu Apr 17, 2025 8:28 pm
Q-is-here wrote: Thu Apr 17, 2025 7:51 pm
Coolbreeze44 wrote: Thu Apr 17, 2025 6:51 pm

I agree with you on this, but I honestly believe the deck is just rigged against us. A Laker loss in round 1 would be a disaster for the NBA. I know this league is corrupt and they simply aren't going to let this Lebron-Luka-Tinseltown opportunity get away this year. They need the ratings, Lebron is almost done, and they have gotten away with similar things in the past. There might be an uproar about some egregious calls for a couple days, but they know that will fade away quickly. It wasn't that long ago the WNBA simply stole a championship from Minnesota for New York, and this series has far greater consequences than that one did. If you really want something close to fair and legitimate competition the NFL and NHL offer it. Sorry to be a Debbie Downer, but this isn't my first rodeo with this.
If you truly think it's rigged (meaning the NBA and refs association at the highest levels are conspiring to ensure a Laker victory), than why bother watching?

I personally think a highly orchestrated conspiracy would be too hard to keep under wraps. Too many people would need to know about it for it not to leak. Especially in this day and age.

What I do think is that there is built-in ref bias where most of them can't help but be influenced by the pro-Laker zeitgeist and the favorable star calls that the NBA has always had, even if they try to be objective. There is a reason juries are sequestered...

So I assume the Lakers will get a more generous whistle on both ends. But that's different than orders from on high to make it happen.
Q, it might be as simple as the president of league operations telling Albert Sanders that the Lakers better not lose a game due to officiating. It could be that small, it really doesn't require a huge orchestration of a carefully executed plan. I hope you realize there is corruption in sports, and the NBA in particular. No other league promotes it's stars to such a degree that they HAVE to get maximum exposure for them. They create the buzz, and then they capitalize on what they've created.

I'd bet my last dollar there have been discussions between the broadcast networks and the league regarding effective ways to boost ratings. Having the Timberwolves meet OKC in the conference finals isn't it.

To answer your question as to why I watch, there is a small part of me that believes it's possible the Wolves performance could be overwhelming enough where it would not be possible to take it from them. I remember the 1983 playoffs where my Bucks swept the favored Celtics. That series was not riggable. But there were several other series where I was kicked in the mouth as a fan due to one-sided officiating. I don't think it's as common today as it was in the 80's, when Stern was trying to build the business. But if there ever was a series vulnerable to some unscrupulous chicanery, I think this is the one.
But if the president of league operations tells Albert Sanders that the Lakers better not lose, then Albert Sanders in turn has to tell the head ref of multiple crews the same thing since a different crew works every game. I'm sorry, something that blatant eventually gets out, even if it takes some time to pass by. Too many people are going to know and it's not like the refs are permanently muzzled with fear of death. And even the mob had rats!

I hate the Lakers as much as the next guy and agree there will likely be officiating bias. I just don't think it will be pre-planned/meditated as dictated from the league office.

Again, not sure why you are going to bother to watch. Even if one were to assume no ref bias, it's highly unlikely the Wolves will "overwhelm" the Lakers. The Reaves/LeBron/Doncic combination is too good for that. If we win the series, it will likely be because Ant will crack the code of winning in clutch time. We all know how you feel about that!

Re: Lakers heavy betting favorites over Wolves

Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2025 12:10 am
by Coolbreeze44
Q-is-here wrote: Thu Apr 17, 2025 9:47 pm
Coolbreeze44 wrote: Thu Apr 17, 2025 8:28 pm
Q-is-here wrote: Thu Apr 17, 2025 7:51 pm

If you truly think it's rigged (meaning the NBA and refs association at the highest levels are conspiring to ensure a Laker victory), than why bother watching?

I personally think a highly orchestrated conspiracy would be too hard to keep under wraps. Too many people would need to know about it for it not to leak. Especially in this day and age.

What I do think is that there is built-in ref bias where most of them can't help but be influenced by the pro-Laker zeitgeist and the favorable star calls that the NBA has always had, even if they try to be objective. There is a reason juries are sequestered...

So I assume the Lakers will get a more generous whistle on both ends. But that's different than orders from on high to make it happen.
Q, it might be as simple as the president of league operations telling Albert Sanders that the Lakers better not lose a game due to officiating. It could be that small, it really doesn't require a huge orchestration of a carefully executed plan. I hope you realize there is corruption in sports, and the NBA in particular. No other league promotes it's stars to such a degree that they HAVE to get maximum exposure for them. They create the buzz, and then they capitalize on what they've created.

I'd bet my last dollar there have been discussions between the broadcast networks and the league regarding effective ways to boost ratings. Having the Timberwolves meet OKC in the conference finals isn't it.

To answer your question as to why I watch, there is a small part of me that believes it's possible the Wolves performance could be overwhelming enough where it would not be possible to take it from them. I remember the 1983 playoffs where my Bucks swept the favored Celtics. That series was not riggable. But there were several other series where I was kicked in the mouth as a fan due to one-sided officiating. I don't think it's as common today as it was in the 80's, when Stern was trying to build the business. But if there ever was a series vulnerable to some unscrupulous chicanery, I think this is the one.
But if the president of league operations tells Albert Sanders that the Lakers better not lose, then Albert Sanders in turn has to tell the head ref of multiple crews the same thing since a different crew works every game. I'm sorry, something that blatant eventually gets out, even if it takes some time to pass by. Too many people are going to know and it's not like the refs are permanently muzzled with fear of death. And even the mob had rats!

I hate the Lakers as much as the next guy and agree there will likely be officiating bias. I just don't think it will be pre-planned/meditated as dictated from the league office.

Again, not sure why you are going to bother to watch. Even if one were to assume no ref bias, it's highly unlikely the Wolves will "overwhelm" the Lakers. The Reaves/LeBron/Doncic combination is too good for that. If we win the series, it will likely be because Ant will crack the code of winning in clutch time. We all know how you feel about that!
Okay please don't misrepresent what I said. I didn't say Sanders would be told to not let the Lakers lose. I said he might be told that the Lakers better not lose due to a bad call or calls. That alone would give the Lakers a huge advantage. Truth is I have no idea how the pressure is applied. But my theory is the broadcast partners put huge pressure on Stern & the POLO who in turn relay that pressure on to Sanders. Sanders telling his crews that network executives are going to be livid if certain teams get jobbed, is not a crime but it certainly is a powerful statement. A referee making $300K per year (average) is going to take that information, interpret it as he sees fit, and then try to act in the best interests of the league and himself.

The Wolves chance in this series is to use their depth to wear down a 40's something Lebron and a less than physical marvel Luka. This will hopefully have an accumulative effect as the series progresses, and have the Wolves pulling away late in games. If the games are close in the last 5 minutes, I'm not expecting much success for the reasons I've talked about.

I'm a Minnesota sports fan, I'm used to losing, often in embarrassing fashion. It doesn't keep me from watching the Vikings, Twins, and Wild in the playoffs. My fan loyalty is beyond reproach. Of course I'm going to watch and hope for the best.

Re: Lakers heavy betting favorites over Wolves

Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2025 4:21 am
by 60WinTim
You guys are a bunch of Nervous Nellies!

Since the Luka trade, the Lakers have more bad losses than they do good wins. On paper, I think the Wolves match up just fine. Assuming we get “Playoff ANT”, I don’t expect this series to be very close. I am the lone vote for “Wolves in 5”.

I’ll be sending my best from Madagascar for game 1!

Re: Lakers heavy betting favorites over Wolves

Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2025 9:17 am
by AbeVigodaLive
I don't think there's some nasty cabal of NBA people conspiring to fix the series for the Lakers.

But as Q mentions... there's officiating bias.

So imagine you're Zach Garba or whoever. A 50/50 bang/bang play happens with 3 seconds left in the game. Was it a foul on LeBron James?

- Don't call the foul and the league's most treasured/prized player gets hosed. He's the largest mouthpiece in the league and that call will be scrutinized for a very long time. Heck, just look back to one missed call vs. Boston last year in a random regular season game. That thing was discussed for a ridiculously long time.

- Or, call the foul on the Wolves. Sure, you'll get Wolves fans upset. So what? They have 10% of the following. And... people EXPECT the Lakers to get the benefit of the doubt more often than the opponent. (This has been going on at least since they beat the Pistons in 1988.) Whether it's that game... or 2002 vs. the Kings... or 4th quarter of the 2010 Finals... or the last few games of the 2013 season... or even the 55-game stretch to end last season...

Anomalies or bad calls benefitting the Lakers have been going on for decades. And the league has thrived as a result. There's very little downside in giving that 50/50 call to the Lakers.

BUT... imagine the tens of millions (at least) of dollars lost if a 50/50 call against the Lakers costs the league a chance at a Lakers (James) vs. Warriors (Curry) 2nd round series.




[Note: Maybe the best thing for the Wolves is for the Warriors to get taken out early vs. Houston. Even then, we should stil expect the Wolves to get the short end of calls more often than not in this series. We can love the NBA and still despise that it happens. But that's the NBA as it's always been. We're not going anywhere.]

Re: Lakers heavy betting favorites over Wolves

Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2025 12:50 pm
by Wolvesfan21
They can create bias "slight rigging" but not certainty. So I agree with Cool. I think of course bias will be there, it always is to some extent. I doubt they outright refuse to let the Wolves win at any cost though, a complete rig job. I think that risk of being so obvious it's fixed is too costly to do. But still, a favorable whistle to LA is still a nice edge for them to have no doubt.

Re: Lakers heavy betting favorites over Wolves

Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2025 12:53 pm
by Wolvesfan21
AbeVigodaLive wrote: Fri Apr 18, 2025 9:17 am I don't think there's some nasty cabal of NBA people conspiring to fix the series for the Lakers.

But as Q mentions... there's officiating bias.

So imagine you're Zach Garba or whoever. A 50/50 bang/bang play happens with 3 seconds left in the game. Was it a foul on LeBron James?

- Don't call the foul and the league's most treasured/prized player gets hosed. He's the largest mouthpiece in the league and that call will be scrutinized for a very long time. Heck, just look back to one missed call vs. Boston last year in a random regular season game. That thing was discussed for a ridiculously long time.

- Or, call the foul on the Wolves. Sure, you'll get Wolves fans upset. So what? They have 10% of the following. And... people EXPECT the Lakers to get the benefit of the doubt more often than the opponent. (This has been going on at least since they beat the Pistons in 1988.) Whether it's that game... or 2002 vs. the Kings... or 4th quarter of the 2010 Finals... or the last few games of the 2013 season... or even the 55-game stretch to end last season...

Anomalies or bad calls benefitting the Lakers have been going on for decades. And the league has thrived as a result. There's very little downside in giving that 50/50 call to the Lakers.

BUT... imagine the tens of millions (at least) of dollars lost if a 50/50 call against the Lakers costs the league a chance at a Lakers (James) vs. Warriors (Curry) 2nd round series.




[Note: Maybe the best thing for the Wolves is for the Warriors to get taken out early vs. Houston. Even then, we should stil expect the Wolves to get the short end of calls more often than not in this series. We can love the NBA and still despise that it happens. But that's the NBA as it's always been. We're not going anywhere.]
I think the one thing we got going for us is Ant. He's box office also, is well known to the masses, in commercials, etc... So the dropoff of ratings between us and LA (whoever advances) shouldn't be that extreme. I think a team like Houston could be really in trouble. They got no superstars. The avg fan probably can't name more then 2 or 3 players on that team.

Re: Lakers heavy betting favorites over Wolves

Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2025 1:24 pm
by Q-is-here
Wolvesfan21 wrote: Fri Apr 18, 2025 12:50 pm They can create bias "slight rigging" but not certainty. So I agree with Cool. I think of course bias will be there, it always is to some extent. I doubt they outright refuse to let the Wolves win at any cost though, a complete rig job. I think that risk of being so obvious it's fixed is too costly to do. But still, a favorable whistle to LA is still a nice edge for them to have no doubt.
I think we all agree there will be bias. It's the source of the bias that we differ on. I don't believe there will be any direct pressure applied by the league office or refs association (the union) toward the refs assigned to the games.

I do think there is bias that will play itself out in split second 50/50 calls made by individual officials. Abe provides an example of how their internal calculus may work. It's probably mostly at the subconscious level.

Re: Lakers heavy betting favorites over Wolves

Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2025 2:19 pm
by Wolvesfan21
Q-is-here wrote: Fri Apr 18, 2025 1:24 pm
Wolvesfan21 wrote: Fri Apr 18, 2025 12:50 pm They can create bias "slight rigging" but not certainty. So I agree with Cool. I think of course bias will be there, it always is to some extent. I doubt they outright refuse to let the Wolves win at any cost though, a complete rig job. I think that risk of being so obvious it's fixed is too costly to do. But still, a favorable whistle to LA is still a nice edge for them to have no doubt.
I think we all agree there will be bias. It's the source of the bias that we differ on. I don't believe there will be any direct pressure applied by the league office or refs association (the union) toward the refs assigned to the games.

I do think there is bias that will play itself out in split second 50/50 calls made by individual officials. Abe provides an example of how their internal calculus may work. It's probably mostly at the subconscious level.
There are a multitude of benefactors so it's impossible to say. A person or persons could also go directly to the head ref. Who knows. All we can do is watch to make sure shenanigans are kept to a minimum.