Mavericks Land Flagg

[AbeVigodaLive]

So... when do the Wolves get to move to the East?

To add to the disparity, my 2nd favorite team is looking at A LOT of changes... its window closed for this year and next with Tatum's injury.

[Lipoli390]

Makes sense now why there wasn't much of a bidding war for Luka.

Yep. I could comfortably attribute the Luka deal to a dumb Dallas GM being snookered by his old buddy Rob Pelinka. But I can’t credibly attribute Dallas getting the#1 pick to coincidence. Was Cleveland getting the top pick to pick home-town superstar LeBron a coincident? Maybe, but I don’t think so. Dallas getting Cooper just can’t be. And the lottery fix we saw last night ties back to the Luka deal. It’s really disgusting.

[FNG]

I've kept silent on this in other years, but I want to explain why I know the lottery is not rigged. I worked for the firm that audits the process for over 30 years, and having talked with partners who have been involved in the audit, I can explain what we did to ensure its legitimacy.

I think everyone knows what we watch on TV is not the actual lottery. It has already taken place earlier in a separate room with representatives of the teams, various journalists, and the auditors present. The big shot partner who sometimes gets introduced is mostly just a figurehead in the process...the real work is done previously by a couple junior auditors. They have control of the "ping pong machine" in the days leading up to the lottery...it is never out of their possession. And in the days before the actual lottery, they have tested the system over and over again to make sure it is functioning correctly. By the time the lottery is conducted, the auditors have conducted thousands of iterations and recorded the results. And I can tell you that just like Father Time, Mother Math is undefeated. As the auditors begin their testing, the first iteration may indeed come up "Dallas", just as it did last night. But after conducting thousands of iterations, I can tell you that Dallas wins very close to 1.8% of the time. If the audit results came up substantially different than expected, they would report to the NBA that there was a problem. But they never do...the law of large numbers is infallible. The NBA pays the firm EY thousands of dollars for this not very complicated audit. But it's necessary to preserve the integrity of the lottery. The NBA is a multi billion dollar business, and as we know, the lottery can drastically alter the fortunes of a franchise (hello Ant and KAT). The NBA needs the credibility of a Big 4 firm auditing and controlling their process to ensure they could never be sued for doing something crooked.

Am I surprised that Dallas won the lottery last night? Hell yes! Just like I was surprised that Orlando got Chris Webber in 1993 with only a 1.5% chance of winning. But if you look back at the lottery winners' odds each year, it's clear that the teams with the three shortest odds win most of the time. Sometimes shit happens though, and it happened last night!

[Lipoli390]

Quote from ESPN report on last night’s lottery:

Sources told ESPN that Patrick Dumont, who just finished his first year as the Mavs' governor, considers the opportunity to be in position to draft a generational talent such as Flagg a "gift." While Dumont has given Harrison great leeway to run basketball operations, the governor has final decision on all personnel matters.

I don’t know anything about Patrick Dumont, but he’s spot on calling it a gift. Question is — a gift from whom? Was it God or Adam Silver? Hmm.

[FNG]

Quote from ESPN report on last night’s lottery:

Sources told ESPN that Patrick Dumont, who just finished his first year as the Mavs' governor, considers the opportunity to be in position to draft a generational talent such as Flagg a "gift." While Dumont has given Harrison great leeway to run basketball operations, the governor has final decision on all personnel matters.

I don’t know anything about Patrick Dumont, but he’s spot on calling it a gift. Question is — a gift from whom? Was it God or Adam Silver? Hmm.

Lol, no question this was a big "gift" for the Mavs! I'm not going to speculate on the source of the gift, but I will throw out one fact about Adam Silver. Even though he grew up in NY, his college roommate at Duke said Adam never missed an episode of Dallas every Friday night .

[FNG]

Teams up 3-1 in NBA series have over a 95% chance of winning the series. We now have three good teams down 1-3. How do you rank them in terms of "best" chance of winning three in a row. I say (best chance to worse):

Cleveland
Boston
Golden State

[Coolbreeze44]

Teams up 3-1 in NBA series have over a 95% chance of winning the series. We now have three good teams down 1-3. How do you rank them in terms of "best" chance of winning three in a row. I say (best chance to worse):

Cleveland
Boston
Golden State

I would agree with that

[FNG]

Teams up 3-1 in NBA series have over a 95% chance of winning the series. We now have three good teams down 1-3. How do you rank them in terms of "best" chance of winning three in a row. I say (best chance to worse):

Cleveland
Boston
Golden State

I would agree with that

And I assume you agree none of the three are going to advance.

Sorry about posting this question in the wrong thread. I'll probably get Flagged by our moderator Tim.

[Coolbreeze44]

Teams up 3-1 in NBA series have over a 95% chance of winning the series. We now have three good teams down 1-3. How do you rank them in terms of "best" chance of winning three in a row. I say (best chance to worse):

Cleveland
Boston
Golden State

I would agree with that

And I assume you agree none of the three are going to advance.

Sorry about posting this question in the wrong thread. I'll probably get Flagged by our moderator Tim.

I was giving Cleveland a chance but they look to be going down tonight

[Q-is-here]

I've kept silent on this in other years, but I want to explain why I know the lottery is not rigged. I worked for the firm that audits the process for over 30 years, and having talked with partners who have been involved in the audit, I can explain what we did to ensure its legitimacy.

I think everyone knows what we watch on TV is not the actual lottery. It has already taken place earlier in a separate room with representatives of the teams, various journalists, and the auditors present. The big shot partner who sometimes gets introduced is mostly just a figurehead in the process...the real work is done previously by a couple junior auditors. They have control of the "ping pong machine" in the days leading up to the lottery...it is never out of their possession. And in the days before the actual lottery, they have tested the system over and over again to make sure it is functioning correctly. By the time the lottery is conducted, the auditors have conducted thousands of iterations and recorded the results. And I can tell you that just like Father Time, Mother Math is undefeated. As the auditors begin their testing, the first iteration may indeed come up "Dallas", just as it did last night. But after conducting thousands of iterations, I can tell you that Dallas wins very close to 1.8% of the time. If the audit results came up substantially different than expected, they would report to the NBA that there was a problem. But they never do...the law of large numbers is infallible. The NBA pays the firm EY thousands of dollars for this not very complicated audit. But it's necessary to preserve the integrity of the lottery. The NBA is a multi billion dollar business, and as we know, the lottery can drastically alter the fortunes of a franchise (hello Ant and KAT). The NBA needs the credibility of a Big 4 firm auditing and controlling their process to ensure they could never be sued for doing something crooked.

Am I surprised that Dallas won the lottery last night? Hell yes! Just like I was surprised that Orlando got Chris Webber in 1993 with only a 1.5% chance of winning. But if you look back at the lottery winners' odds each year, it's clear that the teams with the three shortest odds win most of the time. Sometimes shit happens though, and it happened last night!

Good insight FNG, thanks for sharing!