Minnesota Sports Forum

Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 2:59 pm

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 2:42 pm

Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 1:09 pm I like these updates, thanks for sharing. I said it a few days ago but I think it bears repeating, Rudy's net rating is more of a Randle/NAZ stat than a Rudy one. Defensively, Randle and NAZ are a lot worse than Rudy is good. I'm not saying Rudy isn't a great defensive presence

I think you are basically saying the only reason his Net Rating is higher than everyone else is because he doesn't have to play with Naz and Julius at the same time, who when combined bring down the Net Rating of everyone not named Rudy, who is "immunized" by their bad defense because he's on the bench.

But it doesn't minimize the reality that we are objectively winning the minutes he plays at a rate of +12 points per 100 possessions. We have the #2 defense and #6 offense when he's on the floor, so his awkwardness and poor hands moments certainly hasn't prevented us from scoring. That doesn't make him the best player on the team, but he is a HUGE enabler of our best players on both ends of the floor.

Congrats goes to Finch for figuring out how to get this offense to click with what I've always thought were some awkward fitting, but talented, pieces.

We are a really good team, much better than I had thought entering the season. So it's no surprise we should have good numbers when our starting lineup is on the court. But yeah, Rudy is the only guy who doesn't have to play without Rudy. While it limits us some offensively, it hurts everybody else defensively. I'm willing to bet if you replaced Rudy with any other good defensive anchor, our team numbers wouldn't suffer at all. That's how good the surrounding cast is.

He's arguably a positive on offense too. While he's not fluid, a shooter nor ball handler. He does everything else. Screening and offensive rebounding at elite levels. Neither Naz nor Ju do those things well. Plus he's an easy lob dunk threat constantly.

Even in Utah he was part of top 3 offenses in the NBA. I just don't think you are watching the same player as we are, or simply putting too much emphasis on his negatives which do look bad, we all know it.

Also "insert defensive big" doesn't mean they will screen and rebound on offense as well as Rudy and defend worse, so I guess you can't have everything unless you are talking Jokic or Anthony Davis. With Rudy we got good offense and elite defense, that's a killer combo.

In the end we got years and years of Rudy being one of the top 5 centers in the NBA by all metrics. The numbers just don't lie, even if you don't like how it looks.

kekgeek wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 3:24 pm Per NBA.com tracking data, Rudy Gobert is holding opponents to 38.2% within 6 feet of the rim. A whopping -25.1% lower than expected. The lowest percentage for any player in the league that defends at least 5 of those attempts per game.

Good stat and more directly reflects Rudy's defensive impact, especially since it presumably includes other good defensive Centers.

I definitely sympathize with how dependent we are on Rudy. Finch (or Connelly) have to fix the defense so that it doesn't crumble just because he sits. We know in the playoffs that sometimes there are matchups where his impact is more limited than the regular season version and we can't be helpless defensively just because he's on the bench.

kekgeek wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 3:24 pm Per NBA.com tracking data, Rudy Gobert is holding opponents to 38.2% within 6 feet of the rim. A whopping -25.1% lower than expected. The lowest percentage for any player in the league that defends at least 5 of those attempts per game.

Very impressive. And of course there is no stat that I know of that keeps track of "never minds"...Rudy would likely lead the league!

One thing I noticed last night is that several Jazz players were challenging Rudy more than we usually see...you know, not so many never minds. Mostly Sabonis, but some other guys too. And that's why Rudy ended up with 5 blocks. Some young centers like Kessler haven't established their reputations yet, leading to more challenges at the rim and more blocks. Rudy's defensive value is understated because he just isn't challenged as much as most (all?) centers, and thus doesn't have the gaudy block numbers of some younger centers.

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 3:35 pm

Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 2:59 pm

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 2:42 pm

I think you are basically saying the only reason his Net Rating is higher than everyone else is because he doesn't have to play with Naz and Julius at the same time, who when combined bring down the Net Rating of everyone not named Rudy, who is "immunized" by their bad defense because he's on the bench.

But it doesn't minimize the reality that we are objectively winning the minutes he plays at a rate of +12 points per 100 possessions. We have the #2 defense and #6 offense when he's on the floor, so his awkwardness and poor hands moments certainly hasn't prevented us from scoring. That doesn't make him the best player on the team, but he is a HUGE enabler of our best players on both ends of the floor.

Congrats goes to Finch for figuring out how to get this offense to click with what I've always thought were some awkward fitting, but talented, pieces.

We are a really good team, much better than I had thought entering the season. So it's no surprise we should have good numbers when our starting lineup is on the court. But yeah, Rudy is the only guy who doesn't have to play without Rudy. While it limits us some offensively, it hurts everybody else defensively. I'm willing to bet if you replaced Rudy with any other good defensive anchor, our team numbers wouldn't suffer at all. That's how good the surrounding cast is.

He's arguably a positive on offense too. While he's not fluid, a shooter nor ball handler. He does everything else. Screening and offensive rebounding at elite levels. Neither Naz nor Ju do those things well. Plus he's an easy lob dunk threat constantly.

Even in Utah he was part of top 3 offenses in the NBA. I just don't think you are watching the same player as we are, or simply putting too much emphasis on his negatives which do look bad, we all know it.

Also "insert defensive big" doesn't mean they will screen and rebound on offense as well as Rudy and defend worse, so I guess you can't have everything unless you are talking Jokic or Anthony Davis. With Rudy we got good offense and elite defense, that's a killer combo.

In the end we got years and years of Rudy being one of the top 5 centers in the NBA by all metrics. The numbers just don't lie, even if you don't like how it looks.

I can't agree that we get "good" offense with Rudy. He has good games occasionally but he's normally not a positive on offense. Just like he causes never minds on defense, our other players have never minds when he's calling for the ball on offense. I just can't go there calling him a good offensive player.

Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 4:39 pm

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 3:35 pm

Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 2:59 pm

We are a really good team, much better than I had thought entering the season. So it's no surprise we should have good numbers when our starting lineup is on the court. But yeah, Rudy is the only guy who doesn't have to play without Rudy. While it limits us some offensively, it hurts everybody else defensively. I'm willing to bet if you replaced Rudy with any other good defensive anchor, our team numbers wouldn't suffer at all. That's how good the surrounding cast is.

He's arguably a positive on offense too. While he's not fluid, a shooter nor ball handler. He does everything else. Screening and offensive rebounding at elite levels. Neither Naz nor Ju do those things well. Plus he's an easy lob dunk threat constantly.

Even in Utah he was part of top 3 offenses in the NBA. I just don't think you are watching the same player as we are, or simply putting too much emphasis on his negatives which do look bad, we all know it.

Also "insert defensive big" doesn't mean they will screen and rebound on offense as well as Rudy and defend worse, so I guess you can't have everything unless you are talking Jokic or Anthony Davis. With Rudy we got good offense and elite defense, that's a killer combo.

In the end we got years and years of Rudy being one of the top 5 centers in the NBA by all metrics. The numbers just don't lie, even if you don't like how it looks.

I can't agree that we get "good" offense with Rudy. He has good games occasionally but he's normally not a positive on offense. Just like he causes never minds on defense, our other players have never minds when he's calling for the ball on offense. I just can't go there calling him a good offensive player.

Elite screens, lob dunks and offensive rebounding. It's the non flashy shit that wins. We all know he looks almost clumsy and gets stripped or fumbles the ball too often. Doesn't matter! He is a good offensive player still because he does the other crap at a very high level that wins.

Now it is up to the flashy players to do their part, because Rudy is usually only effective if they are. A great screen only works if you got a knock down shooter behind it, or a lob dunk only works if the player is capable of feeding him. Now he has had the occasional 25/20 game where he just dominates the offensive glass and kills the other team. Those are the extra nice nights.

Also no stats are made for a great screen or a never mind. Those stats only come out in the plus minus where he is dominating.

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 6:45 pm

Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 4:39 pm

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 3:35 pm

He's arguably a positive on offense too. While he's not fluid, a shooter nor ball handler. He does everything else. Screening and offensive rebounding at elite levels. Neither Naz nor Ju do those things well. Plus he's an easy lob dunk threat constantly.

Even in Utah he was part of top 3 offenses in the NBA. I just don't think you are watching the same player as we are, or simply putting too much emphasis on his negatives which do look bad, we all know it.

Also "insert defensive big" doesn't mean they will screen and rebound on offense as well as Rudy and defend worse, so I guess you can't have everything unless you are talking Jokic or Anthony Davis. With Rudy we got good offense and elite defense, that's a killer combo.

In the end we got years and years of Rudy being one of the top 5 centers in the NBA by all metrics. The numbers just don't lie, even if you don't like how it looks.

I can't agree that we get "good" offense with Rudy. He has good games occasionally but he's normally not a positive on offense. Just like he causes never minds on defense, our other players have never minds when he's calling for the ball on offense. I just can't go there calling him a good offensive player.

Elite screens, lob dunks and offensive rebounding. It's the non flashy shit that wins. We all know he looks almost clumsy and gets stripped or fumbles the ball too often. Doesn't matter! He is a good offensive player still because he does the other crap at a very high level that wins.

Now it is up to the flashy players to do their part, because Rudy is usually only effective if they are. A great screen only works if you got a knock down shooter behind it, or a lob dunk only works if the player is capable of feeding him. Now he has had the occasional 25/20 game where he just dominates the offensive glass and kills the other team. Those are the extra nice nights.

Also no stats are made for a great screen or a never mind. Those stats only come out in the plus minus where he is dominating.

Dude, you're getting a little carried away with this. Rudy has had (3) 25 point games in his entire Timberwolves regular season career. During last years playoff run, he only played 30 minutes twice out of 15 games. And I don't think anyone was clamoring for more of him. He is to offense what Kurt Rambis was to coaching.

Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 7:50 pm

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 6:45 pm

Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 4:39 pm

I can't agree that we get "good" offense with Rudy. He has good games occasionally but he's normally not a positive on offense. Just like he causes never minds on defense, our other players have never minds when he's calling for the ball on offense. I just can't go there calling him a good offensive player.

Elite screens, lob dunks and offensive rebounding. It's the non flashy shit that wins. We all know he looks almost clumsy and gets stripped or fumbles the ball too often. Doesn't matter! He is a good offensive player still because he does the other crap at a very high level that wins.

Now it is up to the flashy players to do their part, because Rudy is usually only effective if they are. A great screen only works if you got a knock down shooter behind it, or a lob dunk only works if the player is capable of feeding him. Now he has had the occasional 25/20 game where he just dominates the offensive glass and kills the other team. Those are the extra nice nights.

Also no stats are made for a great screen or a never mind. Those stats only come out in the plus minus where he is dominating.

Dude, you're getting a little carried away with this. Rudy has had (3) 25 point games in his entire Timberwolves regular season career. During last years playoff run, he only played 30 minutes twice out of 15 games. And I don't think anyone was clamoring for more of him. He is to offense what Kurt Rambis was to coaching.

Ben Wallace scored 20 pts 4 times in his career, shot 41% from ft, avg 5.7 pts for his career and is in the HOF. Rudy is no less to offense than Ricky Rubio was.

Porckchop wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 8:19 pm

Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 7:50 pm

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 10, 2025 6:45 pm

Elite screens, lob dunks and offensive rebounding. It's the non flashy shit that wins. We all know he looks almost clumsy and gets stripped or fumbles the ball too often. Doesn't matter! He is a good offensive player still because he does the other crap at a very high level that wins.

Now it is up to the flashy players to do their part, because Rudy is usually only effective if they are. A great screen only works if you got a knock down shooter behind it, or a lob dunk only works if the player is capable of feeding him. Now he has had the occasional 25/20 game where he just dominates the offensive glass and kills the other team. Those are the extra nice nights.

Also no stats are made for a great screen or a never mind. Those stats only come out in the plus minus where he is dominating.

Dude, you're getting a little carried away with this. Rudy has had (3) 25 point games in his entire Timberwolves regular season career. During last years playoff run, he only played 30 minutes twice out of 15 games. And I don't think anyone was clamoring for more of him. He is to offense what Kurt Rambis was to coaching.

Ben Wallace scored 20 pts 4 times in his career, shot 41% from ft, avg 5.7 pts for his career and is in the HOF. Rudy is no less to offense than Ricky Rubio was.

Those Detroit teams were nice, I actually bet on them against the Lakers and prime Shaq in the finals. I just knew with their defense they could hold down Shaq and Kobe. Wallace was really the one dude who could guard Shaq well in those days without just hacking him. He was so strong, even if he gave up a few inches if I remember right. Shaq just bullied pretty much everyone with his power, but Wallace could hold up.

Estimated Plus Minus numbers are out. This is one of the more sophisticated advanced stats that tries to get at both defensive impact and offense while considering who else is on the floor. Dane Moore thinks it's the best defensive stat out there, while acknowledging that no stat perfectly captures what's actually happening.

Here is the NBA percentile each of our main guys along with some players from other teams in a similar percentile. You be the judge on how valid you think this metric is!

Player - Offensive EPM/Defensive EPM/Overall EPM percentile:
Ant - 95th percentile/68th percentile/94th percentile - Cade Cunningham, Jalen Brunson
Julius - 97/69/97 - James Harden, Lauri Markkanen
Jaden - 73/91/86 - Jaylen Brown, Josh Okogie
Rudy - 44/97/77 - Pascal Siakim, Scottie Barnes
DDV - 88/33/79 - RJ Barrett, Moses Moody
Naz - 50/76/61 - Kel'el Ware, Vit Krejci
Mike - 55/15/42 - Sion James, Trendon Watford
Clark - 24/90/46 - CJ McCollum, Lu Dort
Dilly - 1/44/1 - Bub Carrington, Tyus Jones

- If you're curious where these percentiles rank guys in absolute terms, Julius has the 10th best EPM in the NBA right now. Ant is 23rd. Dillingham is 7th to last.

- It's interesting how offensive EPM gets weighted more than defensive EPM when assigning the overall EPM.

- No where to go but up for Dillingham! He's currently in the one percentile of NBA players and I must say, that kind of meets the eye test. Bub Carrington, another 2nd year PG is struggling just as much and old friend Tyus Jones has struggled as well. Dilly being in the 44th percentile defensively is encouraging, but his miserable shooting and high turnover rate have made him terrible offensively.

- I was surprised that Naz's defensive EPM was better than his offensive EPM. I know he's done better on that end the last few games, but man was he awful for a while there.

- Jaden definitely leveling up, being above average in both offense and defensive EPM and a legit 3rd option.

- You might be surprised to see Josh Okogie as a comparable to Jaden. Well, he's shooting 47% from the field and 43% from 3 so far and he has a better than 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. Add that to his always excellent defense and being part of a winning team and he shows out well in this stat. We''ll see if the shooting holds up over the course of the season!