Minnesota Sports Forum

AbeVigodaLive wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2026 3:22 pm By the way... Lakers now +7 in real wins vs. expected wins. (San Antonio is next at +2. At least the Wolves aren't negative this season... +0.)

The Lakers are now 20 - 6 in "close games" this season.

Nothing shady in the close Houston game this week though. Luka Doncic is just too damn good. And as noted elsewhere on this site... Marcus Smart has really helped shore up the previously leaky Lakers defense.

He's going to need to hit big shots in the playoffs though. It's always interesting to see Smart in those moments. Anything can happen.

KiwiMatt wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2026 11:07 pm Free throw attempts per game disparity plays a big part in Lakers winning more games than they are expected to.

I can’t find the stats for this season, but I remember seeing it last season that since 2022/23 they were something like +1200 in FTA for and against. The next team was under half that. This was before Luka. I’ve been looking at their box scores recently and they always have 5 to 10 more FTA per game than their opposition. There is also a disparity in personal fouls for and against.

They get a favourable whistle. Whether it’s premeditated by the officials or not is the real question.

KiwiMatt wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2026 11:07 pm Free throw attempts per game disparity plays a big part in Lakers winning more games than they are expected to.

I can’t find the stats for this season, but I remember seeing it last season that since 2022/23 they were something like +1200 in FTA for and against. The next team was under half that. This was before Luka. I’ve been looking at their box scores recently and they always have 5 to 10 more FTA per game than their opposition. There is also a disparity in personal fouls for and against.

They get a favourable whistle. Whether it’s premeditated by the officials or not is the real question.

KiwiMatt wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2026 11:07 pm Free throw attempts per game disparity plays a big part in Lakers winning more games than they are expected to.

I can’t find the stats for this season, but I remember seeing it last season that since 2022/23 they were something like +1200 in FTA for and against. The next team was under half that. This was before Luka. I’ve been looking at their box scores recently and they always have 5 to 10 more FTA per game than their opposition. There is also a disparity in personal fouls for and against.

They get a favourable whistle. Whether it’s premeditated by the officials or not is the real question.

Phenom wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2026 9:09 am

KiwiMatt wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2026 11:07 pm Free throw attempts per game disparity plays a big part in Lakers winning more games than they are expected to.

I can’t find the stats for this season, but I remember seeing it last season that since 2022/23 they were something like +1200 in FTA for and against. The next team was under half that. This was before Luka. I’ve been looking at their box scores recently and they always have 5 to 10 more FTA per game than their opposition. There is also a disparity in personal fouls for and against.

They get a favourable whistle. Whether it’s premeditated by the officials or not is the real question.

Lakers are +366 in fta differential as a team this season according to stat muse. That's number one in the NBA by 101 over 2nd place Spurs

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2026 2:07 pm

KiwiMatt wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2026 11:07 pm Free throw attempts per game disparity plays a big part in Lakers winning more games than they are expected to.

I can’t find the stats for this season, but I remember seeing it last season that since 2022/23 they were something like +1200 in FTA for and against. The next team was under half that. This was before Luka. I’ve been looking at their box scores recently and they always have 5 to 10 more FTA per game than their opposition. There is also a disparity in personal fouls for and against.

They get a favourable whistle. Whether it’s premeditated by the officials or not is the real question.

But before Doncic, they had AD. He's always been pretty high up there in FTAs and a really good defender that avoids fouling. He created a huge differential just by himself.

My theory has always been that the Lakers happen to have players on their roster that are good at drawing fouls. I mean, LeBron averaged 8+ FTAs per game in his Cleveland stints, which is more than his Laker FTA average. AD averaged 7 FTAs per game while with New Orleans. Etc.

I do think there is some "unconscious" bias that the Lakers benefit from, but they also happen to have a long history of having really good players and most really good players draw a lot of fouls and get the benefit on defense too.