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Re: First Playoff Game

Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2026 2:24 pm
by Phenom
AussieWolf3 wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2026 12:18 pm
Phenom wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2026 10:17 am Rudy is another key piece to watch this series. The Wolves will either need to figure out a way to score better with Rudy on the court (pace) or defend better with him on the bench (Slo Mo).
I don't think it's either or, it's an 'and' situation. Kyle needs to help maintain a high level of defense in his minutes.
I hope the team doesn't fall for the bait and think that they need to win this in a shoot out. Ultimately their offense will be good enough to score in the half court, but to win the series they need to play aggressive and locked in defense so they can create turnover opportunities and score in transition.

We just haven't really gotten a good chance to see the full iteration of this roster healthy and playing together, so it's gonna be interesting to see how quickly they jell and adapt to each other. Is iso ball, and disconnected defense in the past, or will they resort to their worst habits when the pressure is on?
Ideally, yes, you hit on both but Rudy's minutes tend to dip when things get hairy in the playoffs. If it is an 'and' proposition, it would be considered growth for this group.

Re: First Playoff Game

Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2026 2:52 pm
by FNG
Let's not overlook the fact that Rudy has been outstanding in the playoffs each of the past two seasons, although he did play fewer minutes last season compared to the prior playoffs (27 MPG vs. 34). But there's no question we were much better when he was on the court than when he was sitting. We outscored our three opponents in 2024 by an incredible and team-leading 22.6 points per 100 possessions, and much of it was because we were better offensively (+14.1) when he was on the court. Last season his offensive performance was not as good, but holding our three opponents to 12 fewer points per 100 possessions still led to a positive on/off of +7.5 (third behind Jaden and Ant). Playoff basketball is much more physical than the regular season, and that is where Rudy brings value. We know how effective he is defensively in the halfcourt, and his ability to effectively screen without fouling gives Ant a lot of open looks.

I do see two issues though with Rudy in the first round of the playoffs. First, unlike 2 years ago when Finchy let him sag off of Gordon and focus on rim protection, I suspect he may have to be on Joker this year. I'm not confident that is going to turn out well. In addition, his free throw shooting has been a disaster this season. It will be difficult for Finchy to play him in crunch time if he continues to only make half of his free throws. Offense/defense substitutions will be critical in close games.

Re: First Playoff Game

Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2026 3:18 pm
by rapsuperstar31
FNG wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2026 2:52 pm Let's not overlook the fact that Rudy has been outstanding in the playoffs each of the past two seasons, although he did play fewer minutes last season compared to the prior playoffs (27 MPG vs. 34). But there's no question we were much better when he was on the court than when he was sitting. We outscored our three opponents in 2024 by an incredible and team-leading 22.6 points per 100 possessions, and much of it was because we were better offensively (+14.1) when he was on the court. Last season his offensive performance was not as good, but holding our three opponents to 12 fewer points per 100 possessions still led to a positive on/off of +7.5 (third behind Jaden and Ant). Playoff basketball is much more physical than the regular season, and that is where Rudy brings value. We know how effective he is defensively in the halfcourt, and his ability to effectively screen without fouling gives Ant a lot of open looks.

I do see two issues though with Rudy in the first round of the playoffs. First, unlike 2 years ago when Finchy let him sag off of Gordon and focus on rim protection, I suspect he may have to be on Joker this year. I'm not confident that is going to turn out well. In addition, his free throw shooting has been a disaster this season. It will be difficult for Finchy to play him in crunch time if he continues to only make half of his free throws. Offense/defense substitutions will be critical in close games.
I do kind of like Dane Moore's idea of trying Ayo on Joker at times and fronting him like OKC did with Caruso last season and multiple teams have had success with this year. Putting a smaller defender on him to keep playing physical hard defense on him and hopefully the refs don't call too many foul calls.

Re: First Playoff Game

Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2026 3:29 pm
by FNG
rapsuperstar31 wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2026 3:18 pm
FNG wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2026 2:52 pm Let's not overlook the fact that Rudy has been outstanding in the playoffs each of the past two seasons, although he did play fewer minutes last season compared to the prior playoffs (27 MPG vs. 34). But there's no question we were much better when he was on the court than when he was sitting. We outscored our three opponents in 2024 by an incredible and team-leading 22.6 points per 100 possessions, and much of it was because we were better offensively (+14.1) when he was on the court. Last season his offensive performance was not as good, but holding our three opponents to 12 fewer points per 100 possessions still led to a positive on/off of +7.5 (third behind Jaden and Ant). Playoff basketball is much more physical than the regular season, and that is where Rudy brings value. We know how effective he is defensively in the halfcourt, and his ability to effectively screen without fouling gives Ant a lot of open looks.

I do see two issues though with Rudy in the first round of the playoffs. First, unlike 2 years ago when Finchy let him sag off of Gordon and focus on rim protection, I suspect he may have to be on Joker this year. I'm not confident that is going to turn out well. In addition, his free throw shooting has been a disaster this season. It will be difficult for Finchy to play him in crunch time if he continues to only make half of his free throws. Offense/defense substitutions will be critical in close games.
I do kind of like Dane Moore's idea of trying Ayo on Joker at times and fronting him like OKC did with Caruso last season and multiple teams have had success with this year. Putting a smaller defender on him to keep playing physical hard defense on him and hopefully the refs don't call too many foul calls.
Rap, I was driving through New Mexico and kind of chuckling listening to Dane's pre-pre-playoff pod, because I was thinking "Does Dane really think either the Spurs or the Lakers are going to lose tomorrow as double digit favorites...why is he spending so much time analyzing a Wolves/Denver series?" So I wasn't really paying much attention. Well, the joke is on me, so I probably have to go back and listen to it again, paying attention this time! But yeah, it's not the worst idea in the world. Rudy has shown he can guard in space pretty well, so I don't have a big problem with him taking Gordon. Ayo actually has a wingspan that is 4 inches bigger than Caruso's (6-10.25), so he might be even more effective than him.

Re: First Playoff Game

Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2026 11:12 pm
by 60WinTim
I expect a tough series, but Denver is really flying high right now. They think they have a ton of momentum with their 12-game winning streak heading into the playoffs. Their vibes are really good. How far are they going to fall when they lose one of the first two games?!?

While any 12-game winning streak is something to be proud of, a closer look takes some of the shine off the streak. First, look what preceded the streak - a loss to the tanking Memphis Grizzlies that has been pointed to as their worst loss of their season. They started the streak with a solid win hosting the Raptors. With the exception of one game, all the rest were against non-playoff teams (I'm not counting their last 2 wins when they sat all their main guys). That one win was at home in OT against the Spurs. Nice nail-biter win. But touting that 12-game win streak as an indicator of being "tuned up for the playoffs" is a farce. We should have a very competitive series.

Of course, I do wonder what level of ANT we are gonna see. I worry about that knee...

Re: First Playoff Game

Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2026 10:24 am
by Wolvesfan21
FNG wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2026 2:52 pm Let's not overlook the fact that Rudy has been outstanding in the playoffs each of the past two seasons, although he did play fewer minutes last season compared to the prior playoffs (27 MPG vs. 34). But there's no question we were much better when he was on the court than when he was sitting. We outscored our three opponents in 2024 by an incredible and team-leading 22.6 points per 100 possessions, and much of it was because we were better offensively (+14.1) when he was on the court. Last season his offensive performance was not as good, but holding our three opponents to 12 fewer points per 100 possessions still led to a positive on/off of +7.5 (third behind Jaden and Ant). Playoff basketball is much more physical than the regular season, and that is where Rudy brings value. We know how effective he is defensively in the halfcourt, and his ability to effectively screen without fouling gives Ant a lot of open looks.

I do see two issues though with Rudy in the first round of the playoffs. First, unlike 2 years ago when Finchy let him sag off of Gordon and focus on rim protection, I suspect he may have to be on Joker this year. I'm not confident that is going to turn out well. In addition, his free throw shooting has been a disaster this season. It will be difficult for Finchy to play him in crunch time if he continues to only make half of his free throws. Offense/defense substitutions will be critical in close games.
Not looking it up but I feel Rudy struggled against OKC and the Mavs, but then who didn't but those were tough matchups.

I think he also cooked LA and more then had his way with Denver, GSW and Phoenix. All of which had matchup issues with him. (As good as Jokic is on offense he's sub par on defense so a potential plus for Rudy).

I guess saying that could skew the numbers slightly in Rudys favor. Dominating the easier matchups then losing to the more difficult ones. I would like to see him be more consistent if we are ever going to win it all with Rudy here.

Re: First Playoff Game

Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2026 11:40 am
by FNG
Wolvesfan21 wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2026 10:24 am
FNG wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2026 2:52 pm Let's not overlook the fact that Rudy has been outstanding in the playoffs each of the past two seasons, although he did play fewer minutes last season compared to the prior playoffs (27 MPG vs. 34). But there's no question we were much better when he was on the court than when he was sitting. We outscored our three opponents in 2024 by an incredible and team-leading 22.6 points per 100 possessions, and much of it was because we were better offensively (+14.1) when he was on the court. Last season his offensive performance was not as good, but holding our three opponents to 12 fewer points per 100 possessions still led to a positive on/off of +7.5 (third behind Jaden and Ant). Playoff basketball is much more physical than the regular season, and that is where Rudy brings value. We know how effective he is defensively in the halfcourt, and his ability to effectively screen without fouling gives Ant a lot of open looks.

I do see two issues though with Rudy in the first round of the playoffs. First, unlike 2 years ago when Finchy let him sag off of Gordon and focus on rim protection, I suspect he may have to be on Joker this year. I'm not confident that is going to turn out well. In addition, his free throw shooting has been a disaster this season. It will be difficult for Finchy to play him in crunch time if he continues to only make half of his free throws. Offense/defense substitutions will be critical in close games.
Not looking it up but I feel Rudy struggled against OKC and the Mavs, but then who didn't but those were tough matchups.

I think he also cooked LA and more then had his way with Denver, GSW and Phoenix. All of which had matchup issues with him. (As good as Jokic is on offense he's sub par on defense so a potential plus for Rudy).

I guess saying that could skew the numbers slightly in Rudys favor. Dominating the easier matchups then losing to the more difficult ones. I would like to see him be more consistent if we are ever going to win it all with Rudy here.
WF, you are correct on a couple points. Rudy did struggle in the OkC series last year...only averaged 5.8 PPG and 6.6 RPG with a terrible EFG% (for him) of 52% (he's 64% for his career). But you're also correct that he has had success against Jokic and Denver in the playoffs, averaging a double double both times he has faced them...16.9 and 11.4 in 2020, and 10.3 and 10.8 two years ago. And overall he has been a solid performer in the playoffs...his playoff averages of 12.3 and 10.6 are very close to his career numbers for the regular season. So I guess there's no reason not to expect him to be effective in the Denver series, except for his poor free throwing.

Re: First Playoff Game

Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2026 1:01 pm
by Wolvesfan21
FNG wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2026 11:40 am
Wolvesfan21 wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2026 10:24 am
FNG wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2026 2:52 pm Let's not overlook the fact that Rudy has been outstanding in the playoffs each of the past two seasons, although he did play fewer minutes last season compared to the prior playoffs (27 MPG vs. 34). But there's no question we were much better when he was on the court than when he was sitting. We outscored our three opponents in 2024 by an incredible and team-leading 22.6 points per 100 possessions, and much of it was because we were better offensively (+14.1) when he was on the court. Last season his offensive performance was not as good, but holding our three opponents to 12 fewer points per 100 possessions still led to a positive on/off of +7.5 (third behind Jaden and Ant). Playoff basketball is much more physical than the regular season, and that is where Rudy brings value. We know how effective he is defensively in the halfcourt, and his ability to effectively screen without fouling gives Ant a lot of open looks.

I do see two issues though with Rudy in the first round of the playoffs. First, unlike 2 years ago when Finchy let him sag off of Gordon and focus on rim protection, I suspect he may have to be on Joker this year. I'm not confident that is going to turn out well. In addition, his free throw shooting has been a disaster this season. It will be difficult for Finchy to play him in crunch time if he continues to only make half of his free throws. Offense/defense substitutions will be critical in close games.
Not looking it up but I feel Rudy struggled against OKC and the Mavs, but then who didn't but those were tough matchups.

I think he also cooked LA and more then had his way with Denver, GSW and Phoenix. All of which had matchup issues with him. (As good as Jokic is on offense he's sub par on defense so a potential plus for Rudy).

I guess saying that could skew the numbers slightly in Rudys favor. Dominating the easier matchups then losing to the more difficult ones. I would like to see him be more consistent if we are ever going to win it all with Rudy here.
WF, you are correct on a couple points. Rudy did struggle in the OkC series last year...only averaged 5.8 PPG and 6.6 RPG with a terrible EFG% (for him) of 52% (he's 64% for his career). But you're also correct that he has had success against Jokic and Denver in the playoffs, averaging a double double both times he has faced them...16.9 and 11.4 in 2020, and 10.3 and 10.8 two years ago. And overall he has been a solid performer in the playoffs...his playoff averages of 12.3 and 10.6 are very close to his career numbers for the regular season. So I guess there's no reason not to expect him to be effective in the Denver series, except for his poor free throwing.
Interesting, thanks for looking it up. I thought their big combos were tough for him, they also were physical with their other forwards and guards too knocking loose balls from him or stripping him, not letting him get boards. 6.6 RPG isn't going to cut it.

Re: First Playoff Game

Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2026 3:56 pm
by Phenom
Finch said Ant was full go today.

I am really looking forward to playoff basketball again. I also love that nobody is giving the Wolves much love in this matchup.

For one, the Wolves love the underdog status.

I also want to see the Wolves spoil everyone's hopes of getting Jokic/Wemby and Nuggets/Thunder.

Re: First Playoff Game

Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2026 4:06 pm
by Q-is-here
Phenom wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2026 3:56 pm Finch said Ant was full go today.

I am really looking forward to playoff basketball again. I also love that nobody is giving the Wolves much love in this matchup.

For one, the Wolves love the underdog status.

I also want to see the Wolves spoil everyone's hopes of getting Jokic/Wemby and Nuggets/Thunder.
I'm on the FNG side of the equation when it comes to this series....not confident at all. Denver is a better team than they were two years ago and we haven't kept up.

While I don't think the Ant era will end after we're likely ousted by Denver, it could be the end of a lot of other tenures. Connelly, Finch, Randle, Naz, Rudy, DDV, Conley....more than half of those names may be gone between now and next October.