Presser at 10

[FNG]

I follow Beverly on instagram, he has been in Italy for some kind of fashion week

I would like to take your attention to this picture of Leandro Bolmaro

https://twitter.com/Timberwolves/status/1442957666276478976?s=19

We will see how raw he is but I have to say I didn't expect him to have an NBA body already

This may be the most defining sentence I have ever read about the current state of the NBA. And this is PatBev- a guy many of us think represents more of an "old school" approach to the game. And yet, he chooses to skip (at least) the first day of practice so he can attend fashion week in Milan (full disclosure: I was there too. How else am I going to know what the current fashion trends are?). This brings back memories of Juancho missing the first days of training camp and then showing up out of shape so that he could finish his filming in the Adam Sandler movie.

I'm sure some of you will say this is not a big deal. But if you listened to the media day interviews, no teammate was mentioned more than PatBev. He has replaced Rubio as the veteran leader on this roster that the young players will look to for guidance as to how to conduct themselves. I would say he is not off to a very good start.

But at least he is going to look fashionable on the sidelines during the 25 games he misses this year. So, there's that...

[FNG]

This isn't necessarily a prediction, but rather several benchmarks that I think D'Angelo Russell can reach this season. And if he were to hit all or most of them, I think not only would Timberwolves fans be pleased, but the team itself would win more than they lost -- i.e. 42-plus wins. That's obviously assuming Karl-Anthony Towns also stays relatively healthy as it will take both of them to play competitive basketball.

70 regular season games played
2,240 total minutes (32.0 MPG)
1,573 points scored (22.5 PPG)
560 assists (8.0 APG)
280 rebounds (4.0 RPG)
70 steals (1.0 SPG)
524 field goals made (7.5 FGM)
1190 field goals attempted (17.0 FGA)
245 three-pointers made (3.5 3PM)
616 three-pointers attempted (8.8 3PA)
280 free throws made (4.0 FTM)
350 free throws attempted (5.0 FTA)
44.0 FG%
39.8 3P%
80.0 FT%
.585 TS%
3.0 - 4.0 BPM
3.0 - 4.0 VORP
+ 2.0 total RAPTOR

Many of the reasons why Russell could produce a season like this boil down to the quality of his teammates and the expectedly good health of his lower body. Less defensive attention on him, less pressure to carry the nightly scoring load, less ball-handling duties -- this should all result in way more quality looks for a near elite shot-maker. Not to mention, with three other shot-hunters surrounding him on the roster in Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and Malik Beasley, Russell will adapt his game to theirs and facilitate the basketball more. Again, these numbers are not a prediction in the traditional sense, but rather marks that I can absolutely see him hitting this upcoming season.

Good thorough reply, Cam. I don't disagree that most of the raw numbers you provided are within reach for DLO. Obviously a 58.5 TS% is a huge stretch for a guy who has averaged 53% in his first 6 years...that would be an enormous leap. But I understand your reasoning that more focus on other scorers (KAT and Ant in particular) is likely to lead to more open looks for DLO and fewer low-percentage shots at the end of shot clocks. His improved 55.5% (almost to the league average for guards) last season is evidence of that.

I note that most of the measures you cite are offensive in nature. That makes sense because defensive statistics are often unreliable. But many of us believe DLO needs to be much better on the defensive end if the Wolves are going to be even marginally successful this season. BPM and VORP include defense in the measure I believe, and the numbers you put out there are not out of reach for Russell. I would love to see him achieve them.

I think Q and I though would both like to see DLO improve on his woeful Net Rating (ORtg -DRtg on either basketball reference or NBA.com). He has averaged a negative 10 throughout his career, and a max salary player showing up that poorly in that particular stat is not a prescription for a winning season. I hear your argument that stats like this can be impacted by the players a certain player is on the court with, but over the span of 6 years DLO has played with a wide assortment of players on 4 different teams, and he has consistently measured poorly. KAT hasn't exactly had the benefit of playing with excellent teammates (the Butler year being the exception), but still his Net Rating is the mirror opposite of DLO's...a positive 10 for his career. My prediction continues to be the same: if one of our two max salary players can't produce at least a small positive net rating, this team has little chance of winning many more games than the Vegas line. DLO is the key to this team improving significantly this season, and I'll be watching his net rating, TS% and on/off stats closely hoping for significant improvement. Another season of high volume but only low to average efficiency scoring combined with sub-par defense will doom this team to a finish far out of the playoffs I think.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

FNG, While I agree with your larger point, you continue to apply the wrong net rating stat. DO NOT USE the Ortg or Drtg from Basketball Reference. That is not a true reflection of points per 100 possessions scored or given up while on the floor. Use the Play by Play info in Basketball reference if you want a more accurate readout that truly looks at team performance while the player is on or off the floor.

KAT's career net rating is +.6 per 100 possessions. Barely positive.

DLO's career net rating is -7.4 per 100 possessions. Awful.

These numbers may differ slightly in NBA.com, but they should be close. Again, your larger point stands. We need both to be well into positive territory this season assuming both are healthy and sharing a lot of floor time together. Then I really don't care if DLO's TS% is mediocre or his VORP is just OK - if the team is scoring more than the opposition while he's on the floor, it means he's doing something right even if that's just spacing the floor for KAT and Ant.

[FNG]

FNG, While I agree with your larger point, you continue to apply the wrong net rating stat. DO NOT USE the Ortg or Drtg from Basketball Reference. That is not a true reflection of points per 100 possessions scored or given up while on the floor. Use the Play by Play info in Basketball reference if you want a more accurate readout that truly looks at team performance while the player is on or off the floor.

KAT's career net rating is +.6 per 100 possessions. Barely positive.

DLO's career net rating is -7.4 per 100 possessions. Awful.

These numbers may differ slightly in NBA.com, but they should be close. Again, your larger point stands. We need both to be well into positive territory this season assuming both are healthy and sharing a lot of floor time together. Then I really don't care if DLO's TS% is mediocre or his VORP is just OK - if the team is scoring more than the opposition while he's on the floor, it means he's doing something right even if that's just spacing the floor for KAT and Ant.

Thanks Q. I have to admit I don't have a solid understanding of how ORtg and DRtg are calculated on basketball reference. However, I do find that the numbers generally seem to support the value I think an individual player is providing. For instance, DLO has consistently been about 10 points negative throughout his career, except for his All-Star year when he was only 3 points negative, while KAT has consistently been 10 points positive. If you review the top 25 paid players in the league, only John Wall (-3) and Andrew Wiggins (-10) have negative ratings, and most like KAT are at least +10, so there is substantial evidence that good ratings on basketball reference generally results in GMs seeing value and paying you. It is truly Wolvian that by far the two worst ratings are max players who have played for the Wolves!

So I'll continue to access Basketball Reference to assess relative value, but I will add NBA.com to my research materials too. And yes, let's hope that DLO can finally become a positive player this season...that could do wonders for this woeful franchise.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

FNG, While I agree with your larger point, you continue to apply the wrong net rating stat. DO NOT USE the Ortg or Drtg from Basketball Reference. That is not a true reflection of points per 100 possessions scored or given up while on the floor. Use the Play by Play info in Basketball reference if you want a more accurate readout that truly looks at team performance while the player is on or off the floor.

KAT's career net rating is +.6 per 100 possessions. Barely positive.

DLO's career net rating is -7.4 per 100 possessions. Awful.

These numbers may differ slightly in NBA.com, but they should be close. Again, your larger point stands. We need both to be well into positive territory this season assuming both are healthy and sharing a lot of floor time together. Then I really don't care if DLO's TS% is mediocre or his VORP is just OK - if the team is scoring more than the opposition while he's on the floor, it means he's doing something right even if that's just spacing the floor for KAT and Ant.

Thanks Q. I have to admit I don't have a solid understanding of how ORtg and DRtg are calculated on basketball reference. However, I do find that the numbers generally seem to support the value I think an individual player is providing. For instance, DLO has consistently been about 10 points negative throughout his career, except for his All-Star year when he was only 3 points negative, while KAT has consistently been 10 points positive. If you review the top 25 paid players in the league, only John Wall (-3) and Andrew Wiggins (-10) have negative ratings, and most like KAT are at least +10, so there is substantial evidence that good ratings on basketball reference generally results in GMs seeing value and paying you. It is truly Wolvian that by far the two worst ratings are max players who have played for the Wolves!

So I'll continue to access Basketball Reference to assess relative value, but I will add NBA.com to my research materials too. And yes, let's hope that DLO can finally become a positive player this season...that could do wonders for this woeful franchise.

But you don't even need to go to NBA.com. Simply scroll down two inches to the Play by Play section and it tells you exactly how the team performs per 100 possessions when the player is on the court and then it tells you the differential between being On vs. being Off the court. This is a more "pure" stat and similar to NBA.com's version.

[FNG]

FNG, While I agree with your larger point, you continue to apply the wrong net rating stat. DO NOT USE the Ortg or Drtg from Basketball Reference. That is not a true reflection of points per 100 possessions scored or given up while on the floor. Use the Play by Play info in Basketball reference if you want a more accurate readout that truly looks at team performance while the player is on or off the floor.

KAT's career net rating is +.6 per 100 possessions. Barely positive.

DLO's career net rating is -7.4 per 100 possessions. Awful.

These numbers may differ slightly in NBA.com, but they should be close. Again, your larger point stands. We need both to be well into positive territory this season assuming both are healthy and sharing a lot of floor time together. Then I really don't care if DLO's TS% is mediocre or his VORP is just OK - if the team is scoring more than the opposition while he's on the floor, it means he's doing something right even if that's just spacing the floor for KAT and Ant.

Thanks Q. I have to admit I don't have a solid understanding of how ORtg and DRtg are calculated on basketball reference. However, I do find that the numbers generally seem to support the value I think an individual player is providing. For instance, DLO has consistently been about 10 points negative throughout his career, except for his All-Star year when he was only 3 points negative, while KAT has consistently been 10 points positive. If you review the top 25 paid players in the league, only John Wall (-3) and Andrew Wiggins (-10) have negative ratings, and most like KAT are at least +10, so there is substantial evidence that good ratings on basketball reference generally results in GMs seeing value and paying you. It is truly Wolvian that by far the two worst ratings are max players who have played for the Wolves!

So I'll continue to access Basketball Reference to assess relative value, but I will add NBA.com to my research materials too. And yes, let's hope that DLO can finally become a positive player this season...that could do wonders for this woeful franchise.

But you don't even need to go to NBA.com. Simply scroll down two inches to the Play by Play section and it tells you exactly how the team performs per 100 possessions when the player is on the court and then it tells you the differential between being On vs. being Off the court. This is a more "pure" stat and similar to NBA.com's version.

Thanks Q...I'll add that to my repertoire.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

FNG, I have a genuine question for you. Why is that you routinely refer to a player's career stats rather than either the most recent season or the most recent seasons in cumulative form? Is what a guy produced five or six years ago (or more) even relevant anymore if there's been tangible improvement (or regression) in a number of statistical categories since then? I understand building a statistical case for or against a player and that requires data, but if the data is significantly outdated, then what is it worth?

For example, you like to use D'Angelo Russell's career numbers when it comes to three-point shooting (36.0 3P%) and his overall scoring efficiency (.529 TS%). Is that a true reflection of that player's ability in the present or could we deduce that there's been legitimate progression that renders those career marks a bit outdated and no longer meaningful?

2015-16: 35.1 3P%, .507 TS%
2016-17: 35.2 3P%, .518 TS%
2017-18: 32.4 3P%, .509 TS%

Total: 355-1032 3PA (34.4 3P%), .511 TS%

2018-19: 36.9 3P%, .533 TS%
2019-20: 36.7 3P%, .556 TS%
2020-21: 38.7 3P%, .555 TS%

Total: 512-1376 3PA (37.2 3P%), .544 TS%

I want to reiterate that this isn't about Russell and I used that as an example, but rather this is me wanting to understand the "how" and "why" you use stats the way you do. Maybe it's not even conscious on your part, but it's happened enough to where it's piqued my interest.

[Monster]

I follow Beverly on instagram, he has been in Italy for some kind of fashion week

I would like to take your attention to this picture of Leandro Bolmaro

https://twitter.com/Timberwolves/status/1442957666276478976?s=19

We will see how raw he is but I have to say I didn't expect him to have an NBA body already

This may be the most defining sentence I have ever read about the current state of the NBA. And this is PatBev- a guy many of us think represents more of an "old school" approach to the game. And yet, he chooses to skip (at least) the first day of practice so he can attend fashion week in Milan (full disclosure: I was there too. How else am I going to know what the current fashion trends are?). This brings back memories of Juancho missing the first days of training camp and then showing up out of shape so that he could finish his filming in the Adam Sandler movie.

I'm sure some of you will say this is not a big deal. But if you listened to the media day interviews, no teammate was mentioned more than PatBev. He has replaced Rubio as the veteran leader on this roster that the young players will look to for guidance as to how to conduct themselves. I would say he is not off to a very good start.

But at least he is going to look fashionable on the sidelines during the 25 games he misses this year. So, there's that...

Wait you were at fashion week and you haven't given us any info? Are Crocs still in? Which decade of clothes I have saved will I be able to wear this season? Which was your favorite designer and do you have their efficiency ratings?

[KG4Ever]

FNG, I have a genuine question for you. Why is that you routinely refer to a player's career stats rather than either the most recent season or the most recent seasons in cumulative form? Is what a guy produced five or six years ago (or more) even relevant anymore if there's been tangible improvement (or regression) in a number of statistical categories since then? I understand building a statistical case for or against a player and that requires data, but if the data is significantly outdated, then what is it worth?

For example, you like to use D'Angelo Russell's career numbers when it comes to three-point shooting (36.0 3P%) and his overall scoring efficiency (.529 TS%). Is that a true reflection of that player's ability in the present or could we deduce that there's been legitimate progression that renders those career marks a bit outdated and no longer meaningful?

2015-16: 35.1 3P%, .507 TS%
2016-17: 35.2 3P%, .518 TS%
2017-18: 32.4 3P%, .509 TS%

Total: 355-1032 3PA (34.4 3P%), .511 TS%

2018-19: 36.9 3P%, .533 TS%
2019-20: 36.7 3P%, .556 TS%
2020-21: 38.7 3P%, .555 TS%

Total: 512-1376 3PA (37.2 3P%), .544 TS%

I want to reiterate that this isn't about Russell and I used that as an example, but rather this is me wanting to understand the "how" and "why" you use stats the way you do. Maybe it's not even conscious on your part, but it's happened enough to where it's piqued my interest.

Cam, if you are criticizing FNG using career stats, why do you even still refer to DLO as an All-star? It was a few years back now and DLO was quite fortunate to have been selected by Adam Silver as an injury replacement. Jeff Teague was an All-star, but i don't think you referred to Teague the all-star even 5% of the time you refer to DLO as an All-Star.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Cam, if you are criticizing FNG using career stats, why do you even still refer to DLO as an All-star? It was a few years back now and DLO was quite fortunate to have been selected by Adam Silver as an injury replacement. Jeff Teague was an All-star, but i don't think you referred to Teague the all-star even 5% of the time you refer to DLO as an All-Star.

I refer to D'Angelo Russell as an All-Star. I refer to Ben Simmons as an All-NBA player. I refer to Karl-Anthony Towns as an All-NBA player. I used to refer to Jeff Teague as an All-Star. They earned those superlatives, but at the end of the day they're just labels. That's quite a bit different from analyzing numbers and making assessments about individual players. My question to FNG still stands and I have no doubt he'll answer it honestly and thoughtfully.

I suppose I should have used someone like Carmelo Anthony as my example considering it's unlikely anyone here would refer to his career numbers when discussing his present value or production, but I thought I'd make it more Timberwolves specific.