longstrangetrip wrote:Yeah, Q, I actually think 37 or 38 wins gets the 8th seed this year. The problem is nobody here has shot any holes in your game-by-game analysis which puts the Wolves at 30, so there's just way too much ground to make up. It's just not realistic to expect 7 or 8 clear upsets the remainder of the season with so few games left.
OK, I'll make a desperate attempt to give some hope for you. I think upcoming nine game stretch is really important for our team. If we could get some surprise wins, we might have a change to get back to battle of last playoff spot. Below are our remaining games and results that I'm expecting (hoping in some cases):
Dallas - W - I think this is really important game for us since Dallas has been lately the hottest team of those that are still competing about last playoff spot. I'll hope that adding Noel will have a negative effect for them at least in first game and Wolves will get a win.
@ Houston - W/L After their loss to Wolves, Houston has not looked that good. They have had record 10-9 after that and Memphis has been only good team that they have won. So I see that Wolves could have a change for surprise win here. We just should not let their shooters to get as hot as they were tonight against New Orleans.
@ Sacramento - W This should be a win after Boogie trade even tough Sacramento looked much better against Denver than I expected.
@ Utah - W/L Utah has struggled this year mainly against teams that feature center with three point shot. They have lost twice to Memphis, once to Dallas (with Dirk as a center), once to Denver and twice to Boston. So it seems that the key is to have a big that can force Gobert to follow him out of the paint. This is one game where I wouldn't mind if Towns spends more time behind three point line and Thibbs to pair him more often with Belly. This also 2nd game of back to back for Utah. So I see some change for a surprise win here too.
@ San Antonio - L 3rd game for four nights and latter one of back to back. Maybe Popo rests his starters and Wolves could have a chance...
Portland - W Portland is one team that we have change to catch by just winning our remaining three games against them. Lillard and McCollum just seem to be too clutch but
Clippers - W If Clippers are still missing Chris Paul as they should be, we have a good chance to get this one since Clippers have just 8-12 record without him.
Warriors - L Probably Wolves only chance is that Golden State has already their mind in next days game against San Antonio.
@ Milwaukee - W/L This is a tricky one. Bucks have been really struggling lately and they are missing Parker but Middleton is back and is maybe not that rusty anymore. I'll keep Q:s original prediction.
Washington - L Washington has been playing great lately and they added Bogdanovic to strenghten their bench. I'm pretty sure Wall will make him to look Korver level three point shooter.
@ Boston - L Difficult to find any reason for hope against Boston.
@ Miami - W/L Miami's winning streak ended and I expect that they won't continue to play as well as during that streak. I also won't expect that they would hit again 15 three pointers against us. Should be winnable game for Wolves.
@ New Orleans - W/L This one won't be easy even tough New Orleans could really use more outside shooting. Both Boogie and Davis have had monster games against Wolves in past.
San Antonio - L I have no idea why this was a win in Q's list. Unless San Antonio rests all starters I don't see them losing.[left][/left]
@ Lakers - W Lakers traded their best scorer and I expect that they start tanking to have more hope to keep their pick next summer. (they lose it if it's not top3)
@ Portland - L 2nd game of back to back for us. Most probably loss even tough win would put us probably ahead of Portland.
@ Indiana - L Indiana has been really erratic this season. On good day they can win whatever team (wins against Clipper with CP3 twice and Houston and losses to Philly & Brooklyn) but they have played much better at home. So probably loss for Wolves.
Lakers - W See previous Lakers game
Sacramento - W See previous Sacramento game
@ Golden State - L Only chance would be that this is already meaningless game for Golden State and they rest some of their starters.
@ Portland - W/L I think this is a game that we have to win to have a any hope for playoffs.
@ Utah - L Second game of back to back for us. Probably no chance.
@ Lakers - W See previous Lakers game
OKC - W/L Hopefully this is already meaningless game for OKC and they would rest Westbrook.
@ Houston - W I expect that this is meaningless game to Houston. They have secured 3rd seed before last game and I expect them to rest Harden.
So my optimistic estimate would have 31-38 wins for Wolves. If they could win 5 out of 7 W/L marked games, they would end up with 36 wins. That might still not be enough for playoffs since Dallas has quite easy schedule and they have been playing quite well lately.
