What’s really going on?

[thedoper]

Honestly if the offers are as crappy as the rumors suggest I say let Jimmy play and get injured. The worst thing we could do now is take on more dead salary via Waiters or some other stiff. If Jimmy's trade value goes down let him play out his contract and walk or trade him for cap space at the deadline. We get the cap space, Fire Thibs, let his cronies walk, and give someone new a chance with a relatively clean slate. I don't want long contracts for Jimmy for mid level players. If we can get Richardson and expiring contracts great (doesn't look like that is possible so..). We need to be targeting cheap assets and financial flexibility to give a new GM some sort of view that there was opportunity. Which GM would want to come to a maxed out team with difficult to move assets? I don't see a rush to make a deal for crap. EIther play him to injury or sit him, if teams are trying to unload salary our way, just wait till the deadline and get some expiring contracts.

[Monster]

Video of Thibs Butler and Tyus from after practice yesterday is up on Timberwolves.com. It was kinda fun listening to Butler answer questions etc but it was entertaining to watching him and also Tyus. Good stuff.

[Lipoli390]

Monster -- Bobby Marks' view that Butler's value will go up as the season progresses needs some thorough explanation. The only factor that could help facilitate a trade is the Dec. 15 date, which would free up additional players to include in trades. Otherwise, I don't see any logical basis for concluding that Jimmy's trade value will go up.

Yet, there's a huge risk in waiting. If Butler suffers a significant injury his value goes way down, possibly to zero, depending on the severity of the injury. And of course, Jimmy tends to get injured. Even if it's just another miniscus in the other knee, that seriously diminishes Jimmy's trade value given his one-year rental status at this point. As a one-year rental, the prospect of missed games has a much bigger impact on his trade value. Jimmy's value is based entirely on his contribution to wins. It's a positive per-game impact. Each game he plays is a game he helps your team win. That means his overall value is tied to the number of games he plays. So it's not just games missed via injury. Every game Butler remains with the Wolves is one less game a potential trade partners gets from Jimmy. Therefore, in addition to the injury risk, Butler's trade value to other teams logically goes down over time.

Also, another eruption between Butler and the team or particular players would further diminish the little leverage the Wolves have and further drive Jimmy's value down.

I've said this from the beginning and I'll repeat it now. A thoughtful, objective evaluation of the situation suggests that the longer the Wolves wait, the less the Wolves will likely get in return for Jimmy. Events could certainly happen that increase his value. But those are highly speculative and uncertain. If we're going to trade him, we need to do so sooner rather than later. Jimmy's market value is what it is. We can't change that. If the value isn't good enough now, it likely won't get better over time and it goes away entirely after the Feb. trade deadline. So not trading Butler soon likely means keeping him for the rest of the season or getting even less for him via trade in the December-Feb. timeframe. At that point, I'd just as soon keep him and clear his salary next summer. But the better move, in my view, is to do a deal yet this month and get something of value in return.

If your theory of value going down so much then why do teams wait till the trade deadline to do deals? You are assuming teams are rational. Honestly often they aren't. Marks tweet said some team will thinknthey are a Butler away from being a contender. Yep there is risk involved but again we don't actually know what the offers are now. Depending on the offers the risk of getting nothing for Butler (keep in mind of possible sign and trade options would still be possible in the offseason) might not be so terrible.

Edit:

Lip I think my post replying to you started out in an argumentative tone and that wasn't my intent. It was a counterpoint with some tongue in cheek. I think a lot of your concerns are valid.

Monster - I didn't think your tone was argumentative. You made some good points.

I think we'd both agree that NBA front office executives/owners aren't always rational in their decision-making. We'd probably agree their decisions involve a blend of rational and irrational thinking. But we can't account one way or the other for the irrational component of a team's thinking. A team's irrational motivations might lead them to be more or less inclined to pursue Jimmy, so we can't use irrational thinking as a way to reliably predict Jimmy's future trade value. That leaves us with the rational side. And the rational side tells us, logically, that Jimmy's value to a team increases with the number of games he plays. If a team believes Butler would help them win playoff games, they would logically have to conclude that he'd help them win regular season games. And winning regular season games not only has its own intrinsic value, but also improves playoff seeding, thus enhancing a team's chances of winning in the playoffs. Moreover, the longer Jimmy is with a team, the better his chances of connecting more deeply with that team and re-signing, a la Paul George.

So there isn't really any logical rational basis for concluding that Jimmy's value will go up over the course of the season. There might be scenarios that make him more valuable. For example, the Sixers could be near the top of the Eastern Conference standings and then lose Simmons to a season-ending injury in January. At that point, Butler could become far more valuable to them and they might be willing to give up Covington and a whole bunch of future draft picks to get Jimmy and keep their Eastern Conference Championship hopes alive. On the other hand, the Heat might be a top 3 team in the East with Richardson playing at an allstar level and the team clicking together by January, in which case Jimmy's value to them would likely go down, perhaps to zero at that point. And of course, if Jimmy gets injured, even if it's just another miniscus tear, his trade value would obviously take a hit. But these are all unpredictable variables that can't be assumed one way or the other. So we have to come back to the logical or rational considerations because those are the ones that have some reliable predictive value.

As for why teams sometimes make trades just before the February deadline, I don't think there's a single answer. First of all, I think most deals are made in the summer. Trades in February usually happen based on a change in a team's perspective. Sometimes a team realizes that they're not as good as they thought and finally conclude they need to rebuild. In that instance, the team might decide to trade good veterans for picks or young players to jump-start their rebuilding process. Sometimes teams will be doing better than expected in January and conclude they could take it up a notch and get into championship contention by adding a really good veteran though a trade. But trades for all-stars in their prime rarely happen around the February trade deadline and typically happen in summer offseasons. In any event, these scenarios all fall into the chance bucket -- they are random, unpredictable variables that can't be relied on to predict a player's future trade value.

So yes, Butler's value could go up or down over the course of the season based on a whole assortment of unpredictable chance variables. But the one constant that informs the analysis is the fact that the longer you have a good player who helps you win games the more games you'll win. The inverse of that tells us that waiting diminishes the value of the player a team seeks to trade.

I still think the Heat will end up trading for Butler in a deal that is a bit more favorable to the Wolves than the deal the Wolves apparently killed last week. But that's not because Jimmy's value has gone up. It's likely because the Heat have been holding back in an effort to get a better deal than the one they're ultimately willing to make. If I'm right, the deal will happen within the next 7 days. But if Miami truly gave us their best offer before, then I wouldn't expect a deal with Miami at any point this season. And I don't see any team offering a better deal than the one Miami purportedly offered. In that case, we'll have to keep Butler and hope we get lucky with some random event that increases Butler's value to a particular team. Unfortunately, the Wolves franchise isn't known for its luck. Based on this organization's history, it's more likely that Butler suffers a serious injury or gets in a fist fight with KAT, significantly diminishing Jimmy's trade value.

[crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]]

Ouch

"Meanwhile, RUMINT has it that none of this is going over well in KAT territory. They wanted (and want) both Butler and Thibs out, and are, I believe, furious that Thibs essentially threw the team under the bus by backing Butler after his performance last week. KAT's refusal to answer questions relating to Butler at his media availability in Milwaukee was telling"

Kat is probably thinking he's got only 1 ally /friend in this entire organization.

https://www.canishoopus.com/2018/10/15/17977810/jimmy-butler-to-play-in-season-opener-minnesota-timberwolves-nba-trade

[Lipoli390]

Ouch

"Meanwhile, RUMINT has it that none of this is going over well in KAT territory. They wanted (and want) both Butler and Thibs out, and are, I believe, furious that Thibs essentially threw the team under the bus by backing Butler after his performance last week. KAT's refusal to answer questions relating to Butler at his media availability in Milwaukee was telling"

Kat is probably thinking he's got only 1 ally /friend in this entire organization.

https://www.canishoopus.com/2018/10/15/17977810/jimmy-butler-to-play-in-season-opener-minnesota-timberwolves-nba-trade

It's probably true that KAT's not happy Butler's still with the team. But I'm not sure how KAT feels about Thibodeau. I'm not sure it's fair to say that Thibodeau entirely took Butler's side in the recent Butler tirade. In was was an obvious reference to Butler's antics, Thibodeau said that "leadership is about uniting and inspiring... Confrontration is OK, but you have to lift people up, not put them down." Those public comments by Thibodeau were obviously critical of Butler. I'm not a Thibodeau fan and think he's handled his entire matter horribly. But I don't think it would be fair for KAT or anyone else to conclude that Thibodeau has taken Butler's side or thrown the rest of the team under the bus. Nevertheless, Thibodeau should have been fired weeks ago and Butler should have already been traded.

[Monster]

Ouch

"Meanwhile, RUMINT has it that none of this is going over well in KAT territory. They wanted (and want) both Butler and Thibs out, and are, I believe, furious that Thibs essentially threw the team under the bus by backing Butler after his performance last week. KAT's refusal to answer questions relating to Butler at his media availability in Milwaukee was telling"

Kat is probably thinking he's got only 1 ally /friend in this entire organization.

https://www.canishoopus.com/2018/10/15/17977810/jimmy-butler-to-play-in-season-opener-minnesota-timberwolves-nba-trade

It's probably true that KAT's not happy Butler's still with the team. But I'm not sure how KAT feels about Thibodeau. I'm not sure it's fair to say that Thibodeau entirely took Butler's side in the recent Butler tirade. In was was an obvious reference to Butler's antics, Thibodeau said that "leadership is about uniting and inspiring... Confrontration is OK, but you have to lift people up, not put them down." Those public comments by Thibodeau were obviously critical of Butler. I'm not a Thibodeau fan and think he's handled his entire matter horribly. But I don't think it would be fair for KAT or anyone else to conclude that Thibodeau has taken Butler's side or thrown the rest of the team under the bus. Nevertheless, Thibodeau should have been fired weeks ago and Butler should have already been traded.

Just my personal opinion but the author of that piece doesn't sound like he knows anything based on their takeaway from Jon K's Athletic piece. Having said that is Towns happy about the situation? I doubt it. He seems much more of a guy that wants good vibes. He was obviously unhappy with something this summer to wait to sign his deal when he did. I'm sure this wasn't his vision of how the season was supposed to start! lol

[AbeVigodaLive]

Based on what we know (we could be wrong)... KAT has every right to be upset... especially in the world of pro sports where slights can surface quickly.

Here's the future of the franchise... who has been ripped and ripped and ripped both indirectly and directly by Jimmy Butler, a guy who's threatened to upend the entire season with his antics... and yet from what we've seen publicly... the Wolves haven't backed KAT.

Heck, if anything, we've seen more hints of them backing Butler since his tirade. An NBA team in a non-desirable market has only one path to success... nurture its own young stars.

The Wolves might be alienating theirs?

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

KAT is welcome to be pissed sure. But what the hell did he do this pre-season to show this team would be fine without Jimmy? The whole reason Jimmy is getting any support is this team looked like the worst team in the NBA without him. Stop looking for the handout and earn this team. Getting drafted high and scoring points and grabbing rebounds doesn't cut it. Just look at Kevin Love. He wasn't much of a leader here either and we couldn't win with him as our best player because of it. There was a huge opportunity with Jimmy away from the team to become the leader of this team and truly take over the franchise moving forward and he miserably failed that test in all possible ways as this team looked completely lifeless and lost without it's true leader in Jimmy. So be mad at Jimmy and the organization, but he also needs to realize he had a golden opportunity to take over the team and show we didn't need Jimmy and he failed as that guy. Getting beat by a bunch of 3rd stringers was just icing on the cake. Towns just isn't ready to lead this team and everyone on the team knows it which is why Jimmy is starting tomorrow night and not sitting at home on the couch.

[AbeVigodaLive]

KAT is welcome to be pissed sure. But what the hell did he do this pre-season to show this team would be fine without Jimmy? The whole reason Jimmy is getting any support is this team looked like the worst team in the NBA without him. Stop looking for the handout and earn this team. Getting drafted high and scoring points and grabbing rebounds doesn't cut it. Just look at Kevin Love. He wasn't much of a leader here either and we couldn't win with him as our best player because of it. There was a huge opportunity with Jimmy away from the team to become the leader of this team and truly take over the franchise moving forward and he miserably failed that test in all possible ways as this team looked completely lifeless and lost without it's true leader in Jimmy. So be mad at Jimmy and the organization, but he also needs to realize he had a golden opportunity to take over the team and show we didn't need Jimmy and he failed as that guy. Getting beat by a bunch of 3rd stringers was just icing on the cake. Towns just isn't ready to lead this team and everyone on the team knows it which is why Jimmy is starting tomorrow night and not sitting at home on the couch.

Maybe.

But it was preseason... and a practice. So if we're calling him a failure under those circumstances?

Tough crowd.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

KAT is welcome to be pissed sure. But what the hell did he do this pre-season to show this team would be fine without Jimmy? The whole reason Jimmy is getting any support is this team looked like the worst team in the NBA without him. Stop looking for the handout and earn this team. Getting drafted high and scoring points and grabbing rebounds doesn't cut it. Just look at Kevin Love. He wasn't much of a leader here either and we couldn't win with him as our best player because of it. There was a huge opportunity with Jimmy away from the team to become the leader of this team and truly take over the franchise moving forward and he miserably failed that test in all possible ways as this team looked completely lifeless and lost without it's true leader in Jimmy. So be mad at Jimmy and the organization, but he also needs to realize he had a golden opportunity to take over the team and show we didn't need Jimmy and he failed as that guy. Getting beat by a bunch of 3rd stringers was just icing on the cake. Towns just isn't ready to lead this team and everyone on the team knows it which is why Jimmy is starting tomorrow night and not sitting at home on the couch.

Maybe.

But it was preseason... and a practice. So if we're calling him a failure under those circumstances?

Tough crowd.

I think that just furthers Jimmy's point though. The vets and coaches all said that was the best practice of the year so far. The pre-season games were legitimately all disasters for the starting 5. Teague and Rose did what they wanted and Towns and Wiggins were just bystanders who didn't go get the ball. Everyone just keeps pointing at Thibs, but real stars and leaders go get the ball and lead the team and don't just let the train wrecks happen over and over again. Treating it as just pre-season and just practice isn't a luxury a team missing it's best player who wants out should be taking. That was a chance to show your veteran teammates and coaches that Jimmy was a luxury and he failed. Not taking the opportunity that was available seriously played right into Jimmy's hands.