Minnesota Sports Forum

Posted: **Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:55 pm**

I was initially concerned by Dunn's low assist:turnover ratio. However, in looking at many of the league's top point guards' college stats, I found it difficult to find any ratios above 2.

Curry, Westbrook, Wall, Rose, Lowry, Lillard, etc. This has lessened my concern a great deal.

Posted: **Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:07 pm**

Thanks for all the links on ga

Mr. Brightside wrote:
longstrangetrip wrote:Good discussion here about our PG situation. I think we're all learning more about Dunn...some good, some not so good. I watched portions of the Georgetown game and won't add my comments here because Monster did a great job of summarizing his performance.

My opinion of Kris Dunn the man has gotten more favorable since draft night, but my opinion of Kris Dunn the PG has gone in the other direction. With the potential fire power we have in our young Big 3, we need a Rubio-like distributor who can get them the ball without turning it over, and Dunn isn't that guy yet.

Some here have commented on his good assist totals as an indicator that he is a good distributor, but I think when you dig into the numbers more, some questions come up. During November and December pre-season games (against a soft schedule), he put up 7.4 assists per game against only 2.8 turnovers. But his numbers against conference competition in January and February were not very good...4.7 assists per game and 4.3 turnovers per game. He improved in March, but then had as many turnovers as assists in his two NCAA tournament games. NBA defenses will be even better than Big East defenses, so I do have concerns.

My sense is that there are still potential deals out there for Dunn, and I would be more interested now than I was on draft night. I would pull the trigger on any one of these deals:

1) Dunn for Russell and a draft pick
2) Dunn and LaVine for Butler and Valentine
3) Dunn for Noel, Covington and Luwawu

Are you of the opinion that Rubio should continue to be our stating point guard for the foreseeable future and will be a key in a long, deep playoff run? I love Ricky and I want him on this team. However, Dunn's athleticism and finishing ability along with his shut down defense will take this team to another level.

Rubio is like Kevin Love in a lot of ways. He's a flawed player that needs very specific types of players around him due to his flaws. Love needs someone to create shots for him. He also needs an athletic big next to him that can rim protect and defend along with other perimeter defenders. Ricky needs shooters/scorers all around him due to his limitations in those departments. That's what makes a player like Towns so great. It doesn't matter who is beside him. He fits well with anyone because he's very good to great at all aspects.

Dunn can be good to very good in every aspect. He'll become a good (not elite) shooter. He'll defend like a pit bull. He'll get to the rack and finish consistently. Will he pass like Ricky? Probably not. Will he see the floor like Ricky? Probably not. Will he do those things along with everything else good enough to be a very good point guard and an excellent compliment to Towns, Wiggins, and LaVine? Absolutely.

We, as fans, have loved (hell, adored!) Ricky since he got here in 2011. He's provided fun and excitement in a rather dull time in Timberwolves basketball. His enthusiasm and charm is infectious. Because of this, we are somewhat blind to his flaws. His lack of being a scoring/shooting threat will continue to hold this team back, specifically in the playoffs.

Every year we say "If Ricky can just learn to shoot. If Ricky can just finish at the rim a little better, we'll be that much better." However, we have seen very little improvement in that area the last 5 seasons, some of which were injury riddled. Kris Dunn is here to eventually become the leader of this team and the starting point guard. It's time to start to embrace him and start to distance ourselves from Ricky Rubio, no matter how hard that may be.

Again, Rubio has not "held this team back". His career net rating is +2 (Ortg - Drtg) and On/Off net rating is +8. I'm trying to figure out how he's the guy holding us back when we've been so much better when he's on the court.

I like Dunn because he gives us PG depth, versatility (he can play some SG), and defense. And perhaps he could someday overtake Rubio, but it's a huge gamble on Thibs' part if they ship out Rubio and hand the reigns over to a turnover-prone rookie who didn't exactly lead his college team to glory.

Posted: **Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:37 pm**

Mr. Brightside wrote:
longstrangetrip wrote:Good discussion here about our PG situation. I think we're all learning more about Dunn...some good, some not so good. I watched portions of the Georgetown game and won't add my comments here because Monster did a great job of summarizing his performance.

My opinion of Kris Dunn the man has gotten more favorable since draft night, but my opinion of Kris Dunn the PG has gone in the other direction. With the potential fire power we have in our young Big 3, we need a Rubio-like distributor who can get them the ball without turning it over, and Dunn isn't that guy yet.

Some here have commented on his good assist totals as an indicator that he is a good distributor, but I think when you dig into the numbers more, some questions come up. During November and December pre-season games (against a soft schedule), he put up 7.4 assists per game against only 2.8 turnovers. But his numbers against conference competition in January and February were not very good...4.7 assists per game and 4.3 turnovers per game. He improved in March, but then had as many turnovers as assists in his two NCAA tournament games. NBA defenses will be even better than Big East defenses, so I do have concerns.

My sense is that there are still potential deals out there for Dunn, and I would be more interested now than I was on draft night. I would pull the trigger on any one of these deals:

1) Dunn for Russell and a draft pick
2) Dunn and LaVine for Butler and Valentine
3) Dunn for Noel, Covington and Luwawu

Are you of the opinion that Rubio should continue to be our stating point guard for the foreseeable future and will be a key in a long, deep playoff run? I love Ricky and I want him on this team. However, Dunn's athleticism and finishing ability along with his shut down defense will take this team to another level.

Rubio is like Kevin Love in a lot of ways. He's a flawed player that needs very specific types of players around him due to his flaws. Love needs someone to create shots for him. He also needs an athletic big next to him that can rim protect and defend along with other perimeter defenders. Ricky needs shooters/scorers all around him due to his limitations in those departments. That's what makes a player like Towns so great. It doesn't matter who is beside him. He fits well with anyone because he's very good to great at all aspects.

Dunn can be good to very good in every aspect. He'll become a good (not elite) shooter. He'll defend like a pit bull. He'll get to the rack and finish consistently. Will he pass like Ricky? Probably not. Will he see the floor like Ricky? Probably not. Will he do those things along with everything else good enough to be a very good point guard and an excellent compliment to Towns, Wiggins, and LaVine? Absolutely.

We, as fans, have loved (hell, adored!) Ricky since he got here in 2011. He's provided fun and excitement in a rather dull time in Timberwolves basketball. His enthusiasm and charm is infectious. Because of this, we are somewhat blind to his flaws. His lack of being a scoring/shooting threat will continue to hold this team back, specifically in the playoffs.

Every year we say "If Ricky can just learn to shoot. If Ricky can just finish at the rim a little better, we'll be that much better." However, we have seen very little improvement in that area the last 5 seasons, some of which were injury riddled. Kris Dunn is here to eventually become the leader of this team and the starting point guard. It's time to start to embrace him and start to distance ourselves from Ricky Rubio, no matter how hard that may be.

I think you're asking a question that is as critical as any for the future of this franchise, and one that I suspect Thibs is spending a lot of time pondering. It's a tough question for me to answer...we pretty much know what Ricky is, but we don't know what Dunn is going to become. But if I had to guess what our conclusions will be if we have this conversation in 5-6 years, I think they might be something like this in comparing the two PGs.

-both are high character guys with great leadership qualities and a drive to win
-Dunn is a terrific on-ball and team defender, but not substantially better than Ricky
-Dunn is a better jump shooter and finisher than Ricky, but Ricky is a better free thrower
- Ricky is a far superior distributor and far more careful with the ball

How do I summarize that information? In 5-6 years we will be looking at both of them as very good, but not great, PGs. But in terms of who will we think is the better fit with KAT/Wig/Zach? I'm going with Ricky. Our young three studs are all capable of averaging 20 PPG, so it's not going to be vital for our starting PG to be a great shooter and scorer. Being capable of delivering the ball to the right guy in the right place to optimize his scoring chance is the critical skill we will be looking for. I think Ricky is the better choice to help our Big 3 maximize their potential, and if he can average 10-5-5 with a couple steals shooting exactly like he is now, I think this can be a championship team.

But I think it's a very difficult question.

Posted: **Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:38 pm**

This team doesn't "need" Ricky. He's a nice player to have on a young team, but he's not the only chance guys like Lavine/Wiggins/Towns have at being effective players. They don't need him to get them looks. Wiggins can create his own offense. Lavine when it clicks will be able to create his own offense. Towns can create his own offense. A lot of you are ignoring a blatantly obvious trend in the league when you say this team needs the type of player Ricky is at the point. Curry, Irving, Westbrook, Parker, Lowry, Lillard, Wall, Teague, Dragic, Reggie Jackson and on and on. They are all scoring PG's who get their assists from dribble penetration. You simply don't "need" a pass first, floor general. Dunn fits more in the mold with all these guys than Ricky does. That's why I think he's a very important player for our future. He gives us one more player who can create offense off the dribble in a league where that is still the king of playmaking.

Posted: **Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:08 pm**

While it's not imperative for our starting PG to be a huge scorer/shooter, the threat makes it that much more difficult to defend us. That's why I feel Dunn will be a better fit at some point.

Again, I do not want Rubio off the team. While I acknowledge the fact that we are absolutely better with Rubio on the floor, I think a PG like Dunn will make us that much better on both ends. We become extremely difficult to defend with 5 legitimate scorers on the floor at once, which you need in the post-season.

Posted: **Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:51 pm**

It's almost amusing at this point to me that we must now have to choose Rubio or Dunn. It's funny how sometimes history repeats itself. the Wolves go through droughts of time with poor PG play and then have some sort of surplus and let guys go that are really valuable or trade them away sometimes picking the wrong guys to let go and the wrong guys to keep. The Wolves have 3 young PGs with intriguing talents. All are signed for at least 3 years. Keeping all 3 isn't that expensive and teams play combo guards all the time. If either Tyus or Dunn are pretty talented it won't be hard to find them time to get them on the floor it will be a very good problem to have. Let's sit back and enjoy the wonderful depth we have at the position and quit worrying about moving this guy or that guy. If the Wolves can't shore up some of the other issues on the team via FA well they are terrible at their jobs. I don't see Layden and Thibs being that stupid.

Posted: **Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:03 am**

monsterpile wrote:It's almost amusing at this point to me that we must now have to choose Rubio or Dunn. It's funny how sometimes history repeats itself. the Wolves go through droughts of time with poor PG play and then have some sort of surplus and let guys go that are really valuable or trade them away sometimes picking the wrong guys to let go and the wrong guys to keep. The Wolves have 3 young PGs with intriguing talents. All are signed for at least 3 years. Keeping all 3 isn't that expensive and teams play combo guards all the time. If either Tyus or Dunn are pretty talented it won't be hard to find them time to get them on the floor it will be a very good problem to have. Let's sit back and enjoy the wonderful depth we have at the position and quit worrying about moving this guy or that guy. If the Wolves can't shore up some of the other issues on the team via FA well they are terrible at their jobs. I don't see Layden and Thibs being that stupid.

Extremely well said, Monster! I'm going to take what you wrote here as the final definitely word on the Ricky/Dunn debate. Now it's on to other more central issues like who we're going to sign as free agents.

Posted: **Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:57 am**

Mr. Brightside wrote:I was initially concerned by Dunn's low assist:turnover ratio. However, in looking at many of the league's top point guards' college stats, I found it difficult to find any ratios above 2.

Curry, Westbrook, Wall, Rose, Lowry, Lillard, etc. This has lessened my concern a great deal.

Most of those guys have been either freshmen (Westbrook, Wall, Rose) or main scorers of really small school (Curry, Lillard). Dunn is senior and he isn't nearly same level scorer than Curry or Lillard were. So I think those were not that good comparisons. In addition it seems that most of the guys, you listed have had pretty bad assists/TO ratio also in NBA. Lowry has been sole exception in that group. All others have almost never achieved even 2.5 assists/TO ratio in NBA.

Posted: **Mon Jun 27, 2016 8:13 am**

lipoli390 wrote:
monsterpile wrote:It's almost amusing at this point to me that we must now have to choose Rubio or Dunn. It's funny how sometimes history repeats itself. the Wolves go through droughts of time with poor PG play and then have some sort of surplus and let guys go that are really valuable or trade them away sometimes picking the wrong guys to let go and the wrong guys to keep. The Wolves have 3 young PGs with intriguing talents. All are signed for at least 3 years. Keeping all 3 isn't that expensive and teams play combo guards all the time. If either Tyus or Dunn are pretty talented it won't be hard to find them time to get them on the floor it will be a very good problem to have. Let's sit back and enjoy the wonderful depth we have at the position and quit worrying about moving this guy or that guy. If the Wolves can't shore up some of the other issues on the team via FA well they are terrible at their jobs. I don't see Layden and Thibs being that stupid.

Extremely well said, Monster! I'm going to take what you wrote here as the final definitely word on the Ricky/Dunn debate. Now it's on to other more central issues like who we're going to sign as free agents.

Couldn't agree more with Monster - it's the whole reason I wanted Dunn in the first place! I think what has been disconcerting to most Wolves fans is that credible NBA insiders like Woj have mentioned that we were actively shopping Rubio. And if you listen to the way Thibs and Layden discuss the issue, you don't come away super confident that they intend on keeping Rubio.

Posted: **Mon Jun 27, 2016 8:16 am**

Mikkeman wrote:
Mr. Brightside wrote:I was initially concerned by Dunn's low assist:turnover ratio. However, in looking at many of the league's top point guards' college stats, I found it difficult to find any ratios above 2.

Curry, Westbrook, Wall, Rose, Lowry, Lillard, etc. This has lessened my concern a great deal.

Most of those guys have been either freshmen (Westbrook, Wall, Rose) or main scorers of really small school (Curry, Lillard). Dunn is senior and he isn't nearly same level scorer than Curry or Lillard were. So I think those were not that good comparisons. In addition it seems that most of the guys, you listed have had pretty bad assists/TO ratio also in NBA. Lowry has been sole exception in that group. All others have almost never achieved even 2.5 assists/TO ratio in NBA.

Someone had brought up the comparison of Dunn to Lowry before. A slightly bigger, more agile Lowry type sounds about right. If that's Dunn's ceiling, i'm very excited.

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