Re: The Gauntlet: The House - Bucks at Wolves GDT
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 8:11 am
Gambling means giving away money, with the hope that it loves you enough to come back. Right?
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The Gauntlet: The House - Bucks at Wolves GDT
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Re: The Gauntlet: The House - Bucks at Wolves GDT
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 9:44 am
I enjoyed the give and take on the rumored Luka/Ant discussions, but clutch shooting wasn't even considered in evaluating the two players. Ant is an unbelievable shooter for sure, but to be 2 for 22 in the clutch is too dramatic a failure to ignore...his shot is obviously not reliable when the game is on the line, and Finchie needs to be more assertive in setting up other options. The difference in clutch shooting between Luka and Ant makes the comparison discussion close to absurd.
Re: The Gauntlet: The House - Bucks at Wolves GDT
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 11:51 am
Don't bet on the Wolves against bad teams. They nearly always play down to their competition. Bet on the opponent moneyline if anything and get a good payout. Now I wouldn't take them against the elite either, they just are not that good (OKC, Celts, Cavs). It's the middling good teams I think they play best against, take to cover possibly on those. I don't gamble anymore but I did for a long time. I know a little bit. I got into trouble trying to bet too many games I knew not enough about. If you stick to the prime games you know about you can make a little profit.Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2025 6:45 pm I think this is going to be a rout, thus my money is on Dilly tonight.
Re: The Gauntlet: The House - Bucks at Wolves GDT
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 11:55 am
Modern basketball is all about analytics. Sometimes, to a fault.
I know Edwards is a 42% three-point shooter this season... a season where he's had more than his fair share of close, late-game shot attempts.
But what are his percentages on step-back contested threes? 42%? Probably less, right?
So I have to believe there are better options on some of these.
[Note: There's probably a post of mine somewhere from 15 or 20 years ago where I'm talking about all the hoopla around Gilbert Arenas popularizing the inefficient kill shot at the end of games.]
I know Edwards is a 42% three-point shooter this season... a season where he's had more than his fair share of close, late-game shot attempts.
But what are his percentages on step-back contested threes? 42%? Probably less, right?
So I have to believe there are better options on some of these.
[Note: There's probably a post of mine somewhere from 15 or 20 years ago where I'm talking about all the hoopla around Gilbert Arenas popularizing the inefficient kill shot at the end of games.]
Re: The Gauntlet: The House - Bucks at Wolves GDT
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:28 pm
Saw a stat that since 1997 Ant is 243 out of 246 players in FG% in players who have taken 20 shots in these situationsFNG wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 9:44 amI enjoyed the give and take on the rumored Luka/Ant discussions, but clutch shooting wasn't even considered in evaluating the two players. Ant is an unbelievable shooter for sure, but to be 2 for 22 in the clutch is too dramatic a failure to ignore...his shot is obviously not reliable when the game is on the line, and Finchie needs to be more assertive in setting up other options. The difference in clutch shooting between Luka and Ant makes the comparison discussion close to absurd.
Re: The Gauntlet: The House - Bucks at Wolves GDT
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 2:42 pm
That's crazy. Ultimately there will be progression, as it's very rare for someone to be that bad in that context while being so good over the course of thousands of other minutes and shots. It certainly isn't for lack of confidence.kekgeek wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:28 pmSaw a stat that since 1997 Ant is 243 out of 246 players in FG% in players who have taken 20 shots in these situationsFNG wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 9:44 amI enjoyed the give and take on the rumored Luka/Ant discussions, but clutch shooting wasn't even considered in evaluating the two players. Ant is an unbelievable shooter for sure, but to be 2 for 22 in the clutch is too dramatic a failure to ignore...his shot is obviously not reliable when the game is on the line, and Finchie needs to be more assertive in setting up other options. The difference in clutch shooting between Luka and Ant makes the comparison discussion close to absurd.
Having said that, there needs to be some meeting of the minds that has Ant and Finch as the central figures and some other 3rd party authority figure - not sure who, may be Tim Connelly - to say that their clutch time performance is totally unacceptable and they each have to change. Ant has to change his definition of a good shot and Finch needs to put Ant and the team in more favorable situations.
Re: The Gauntlet: The House - Bucks at Wolves GDT
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 2:56 pm
Okay, but any chance Luka is 244th?kekgeek wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:28 pmSaw a stat that since 1997 Ant is 243 out of 246 players in FG% in players who have taken 20 shots in these situationsFNG wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 9:44 amI enjoyed the give and take on the rumored Luka/Ant discussions, but clutch shooting wasn't even considered in evaluating the two players. Ant is an unbelievable shooter for sure, but to be 2 for 22 in the clutch is too dramatic a failure to ignore...his shot is obviously not reliable when the game is on the line, and Finchie needs to be more assertive in setting up other options. The difference in clutch shooting between Luka and Ant makes the comparison discussion close to absurd.
I only started listening to Dane's pod today with Brit, but they are on the topic of Ant in the clutch. Dane went back and reviewed video of all 22 clutch shots. He said both of the two makes had other players involved...JMac with a nice assist on one, and NAW involved in the other. Many (but not all) of the others were similar to last night...Ant trying to do it alone. I've been harping on this for a while, but Ant will reach his ceiling when he allows others to initiate the offense while he moves around screens trying to get open. I understand why Finchie didn't call a time out last night...he didn't want to give the Bucks a chance to make defensive subs. But there should be an understanding in those situations that the inbounds pass has to go to a PG (or to whomever is acting as PG). I would say the same thing for end of quarter shots...I want Ant taking it as the best option, but I don't want any more of his dribbling the clock down to 5 seconds and then hoisting a low percentage shot.
But Robson added some balance. Clutch performing is more than this one isolated stat. You could argue that Ant demonstrates he is a clutch player in all those 4th quarters where he gets hot and brings us back from a big deficit to a victory.
Re: The Gauntlet: The House - Bucks at Wolves GDT
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 3:13 pm
There have also been times when Ant takes over in the 4th and the score and time ends up being such that it doesn't count as "clutch". We've seen that fairly recently in fact where Ant just goes nuclear in the 4th.FNG wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 2:56 pmOkay, but any chance Luka is 244th?kekgeek wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:28 pmSaw a stat that since 1997 Ant is 243 out of 246 players in FG% in players who have taken 20 shots in these situationsFNG wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 9:44 am
I enjoyed the give and take on the rumored Luka/Ant discussions, but clutch shooting wasn't even considered in evaluating the two players. Ant is an unbelievable shooter for sure, but to be 2 for 22 in the clutch is too dramatic a failure to ignore...his shot is obviously not reliable when the game is on the line, and Finchie needs to be more assertive in setting up other options. The difference in clutch shooting between Luka and Ant makes the comparison discussion close to absurd.
I only started listening to Dane's pod today with Brit, but they are on the topic of Ant in the clutch. Dane went back and reviewed video of all 22 clutch shots. He said both of the two makes had other players involved...JMac with a nice assist on one, and NAW involved in the other. Many (but not all) of the others were similar to last night...Ant trying to do it alone. I've been harping on this for a while, but Ant will reach his ceiling when he allows others to initiate the offense while he moves around screens trying to get open. I understand why Finchie didn't call a time out last night...he didn't want to give the Bucks a chance to make defensive subs. But there should be an understanding in those situations that the inbounds pass has to go to a PG (or to whomever is acting as PG). I would say the same thing for end of quarter shots...I want Ant taking it as the best option, but I don't want any more of his dribbling the clock down to 5 seconds and then hoisting a low percentage shot.
But Robson added some balance. Clutch performing is more than this one isolated stat. You could argue that Ant demonstrates he is a clutch player in all those 4th quarters where he gets hot and brings us back from a big deficit to a victory.
The other thing clutch stats don't cover (or at least as far as I know) is defensive clutch, where Ant has been involved in key defensive plays to help secure a win.
I think the other thing they never seem to try is to get Ant the ball in the mid-post area at the elbow or even mid-range wing where he can face-up and just bully his way to the hoop. It's always him bringing the ball up or receiving it way above the 3-point arc.
I think 65% of this is on Ant, but the other 35% on Finch.
Re: The Gauntlet: The House - Bucks at Wolves GDT
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 3:50 pm
He tends to take tough shots. He says, I'm shooting this shit no matter what. The defender knows that. So they end up being very tough. To expand and progress his game to another level I'd like to see some more passes in those spots to open guys, which may or may not work too. But it will ultimately soften up the defense so he gets better looks. I can't remember an assisted clutch/late game Ant pass even. I'm sure there are a few. But that I think makes him better ultimately.kekgeek wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 1:28 pmSaw a stat that since 1997 Ant is 243 out of 246 players in FG% in players who have taken 20 shots in these situationsFNG wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 9:44 amI enjoyed the give and take on the rumored Luka/Ant discussions, but clutch shooting wasn't even considered in evaluating the two players. Ant is an unbelievable shooter for sure, but to be 2 for 22 in the clutch is too dramatic a failure to ignore...his shot is obviously not reliable when the game is on the line, and Finchie needs to be more assertive in setting up other options. The difference in clutch shooting between Luka and Ant makes the comparison discussion close to absurd.
People even ripped LeBron for passing to open guys in clutch moments (media talking heads), but in the end it's the percentage play. I know Ant wants the game in his hands, he wants the shot. But sometimes just playing team ball is the winning formula.
Re: The Gauntlet: The House - Bucks at Wolves GDT
Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2025 6:26 pm
Ant's teammates HAVE to be getting annoyed by these shots to end games. There is basically nothing they can do besides watch and hope it goes in. I think it's time they run an actual play and the guy with the best shot takes it. It can't be any worse at this point.