So What's Your Plan? The Offseason Roster Construction Thread

[AbeVigodaLive]

I saw Randle do the same thing twice. Just blatantly quit on plays. And I've never seen Jaden give less than 100%. How many times have you seen Randle nullify a 2 on 1 with a block at the rim, and then also scramble to get the rebound and head down court. Comparing the effort of those two is offensive to me.

Sorry.

Not in Game 5 vs. OKC.

McDaniels was not into that game after the first few minutes. No way to sugarcoat it.

[TheFuture]

I think there’s room to debate Naz Reid’s monetary and basketball value to the Wolves. But some things are just silly. The claim that he doesn’t play defense is contradicted by the facts. Naz had a defensive rating of 110.4 this season, which was 3rd best on the Wolves behind Rudy at 108.8 and Jaden at 110.3. Naz’s defensive rating was 18th in the entire League. To say Naz doesn’t rebound is hyperbolic to say the least. He’s not as good as he should be but he wasn’t terrible. In fact, he averaged 9.0 rebounds as a starter, which was better than Julius and in line with what you’d expect from a good starting PF in the NBA. And keep in mind that Jaden took a huge leap forward from being a poor rebounder to being a good one just this past season. He got sloppy with the ball in the playoffs but of course so did Ant and Randle. Bottom line is that over the course of the entire season, Naz averaged only 1.4 turnovers per game overall and 1.5 as a starter averaging over 35 minutes per game. So he’s excellent at protecting the ball. The ball doesn’t stick to his fingers and he keeps the offensive flowing.

I look at his stats as a starter for 17 games this past season and wonder what team would not want a starting PF who averages 18.3 points, 9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.5 blocks and only 1.5 turnovers. As a 25 year old late bloomer, it’s highly likely Naz has more untapped upside that he’ll start to show with consistent minutes as a starter.

Again, I don’t know his dollar value. The market will eventually give us the answer to that question. But if the choice is between Naz and Randle as our starting PF next season that seems like a pretty easy call to me. And if the Wolves have to pay Naz $30 million per year because the market tells us that’s his value and we can sign him without losing any core players or bumping up above the 2nd apron, then it would seem to make sense to sign him. My sense is that he won’t get an offer that starts at $30 million per year. I see his top offers starting at around $25 million and I think it would be a big mistake not to sign him at that price.

Naz defensive rating without Rudy in the playoffs 117.1. 6.6 points per 100 worse when Naz gets to play with Rudy.

Same thing happened in the regular season Naz w/o Rudy 115.4 and with Rudy 103.6 (99th percentile).


Rudy is the Naz defensive savior. With Rudy on the floor the wolves are an elite defense when Rudy comes off and Naz is still in the regular season the defense was slightly below average and in the playoffs it cratered. Rudy skews Naz defensive numbers dramatically.

Yep, look at how Rudy made towns look last year compared to what his knicks teammates are saying about him this year. For as awkward as Rudy is on offense, he makes pretty much anyone look good or at least decent on D. Just to clarify, when I say 4-80 for Naz that means it’s starting at 17 or whatever it is in the first year. If someone like Brooklyn wants to offer more, let them. Naz is a great story and a fan favorite, but when you start overpaying based on that emotional stuff, that’s when you get in trouble

Agreed on all. I like that idea of a contract structure for Naz. 17,19,21,23.

[60WinTim]

Naz defensive rating without Rudy in the playoffs 117.1. 6.6 points per 100 worse when Naz gets to play with Rudy.

Same thing happened in the regular season Naz w/o Rudy 115.4 and with Rudy 103.6 (99th percentile).


Rudy is the Naz defensive savior. With Rudy on the floor the wolves are an elite defense when Rudy comes off and Naz is still in the regular season the defense was slightly below average and in the playoffs it cratered. Rudy skews Naz defensive numbers dramatically.

Yep, look at how Rudy made towns look last year compared to what his knicks teammates are saying about him this year. For as awkward as Rudy is on offense, he makes pretty much anyone look good or at least decent on D. Just to clarify, when I say 4-80 for Naz that means it’s starting at 17 or whatever it is in the first year. If someone like Brooklyn wants to offer more, let them. Naz is a great story and a fan favorite, but when you start overpaying based on that emotional stuff, that’s when you get in trouble

Agreed on all. I like that idea of a contract structure for Naz. 17,19,21,23.

But only if Randle is moved (or allowed to expire). A Randle/NAZ frontcourt pairing is not a Championship frontcourt!

[TheFuture]

Yep, look at how Rudy made towns look last year compared to what his knicks teammates are saying about him this year. For as awkward as Rudy is on offense, he makes pretty much anyone look good or at least decent on D. Just to clarify, when I say 4-80 for Naz that means it’s starting at 17 or whatever it is in the first year. If someone like Brooklyn wants to offer more, let them. Naz is a great story and a fan favorite, but when you start overpaying based on that emotional stuff, that’s when you get in trouble

Agreed on all. I like that idea of a contract structure for Naz. 17,19,21,23.

But only if Randle is moved (or allowed to expire). A Randle/NAZ frontcourt pairing is not a Championship frontcourt!

I also agree with that. I'm rather positive that Randle will opt-in. I said in a different post I would offer him 3/75 as an opt-out extension, otherwise I would be doing anything I could to move him this offseason. If it doesn't get done by the start of the year, then roll with it and just let him expire.

[DNatagal]

Did anyone see the Embiid idea tossed out there? I sure hope it was a nothing burger. I really would not want to see him in Minnesota for multiple reasons.

[60WinTim]

Did anyone see the Embiid idea tossed out there? I sure hope it was a nothing burger. I really would not want to see him in Minnesota for multiple reasons.

Zion crossed my mind the other day….

[KG4Ever]

Did anyone see the Embiid idea tossed out there? I sure hope it was a nothing burger. I really would not want to see him in Minnesota for multiple reasons.

His injury history and huge salary has killed his value, so I would only be interested in him if and when (1) we won't have to give up anything of value for him; (2) he comes at a low salary; and (3) he is healthy enough to play 30 games a year and we could choose to sit him out for the first half of the year, slowly ramp him up over the second half of the regular season to get him ready for the playoffs and play him throughout playoffs. So in other words, highly unlikely unless everything were to lineup.

[Lipoli390]

Exactly. I said 20, but that would be reluctantly. The dude completely forgot how to dribble in the playoffs and the passing was dreadful too. I mean the guy doesn’t rebound or play defense either.

I think there’s room to debate Naz Reid’s monetary and basketball value to the Wolves. But some things are just silly. The claim that he doesn’t play defense is contradicted by the facts. Naz had a defensive rating of 110.4 this season, which was 3rd best on the Wolves behind Rudy at 108.8 and Jaden at 110.3. Naz’s defensive rating was 18th in the entire League. To say Naz doesn’t rebound is hyperbolic to say the least. He’s not as good as he should be but he wasn’t terrible. In fact, he averaged 9.0 rebounds as a starter, which was better than Julius and in line with what you’d expect from a good starting PF in the NBA. And keep in mind that Jaden took a huge leap forward from being a poor rebounder to being a good one just this past season. He got sloppy with the ball in the playoffs but of course so did Ant and Randle. Bottom line is that over the course of the entire season, Naz averaged only 1.4 turnovers per game overall and 1.5 as a starter averaging over 35 minutes per game. So he’s excellent at protecting the ball. The ball doesn’t stick to his fingers and he keeps the offensive flowing.

I look at his stats as a starter for 17 games this past season and wonder what team would not want a starting PF who averages 18.3 points, 9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.5 blocks and only 1.5 turnovers. As a 25 year old late bloomer, it’s highly likely Naz has more untapped upside that he’ll start to show with consistent minutes as a starter.

Again, I don’t know his dollar value. The market will eventually give us the answer to that question. But if the choice is between Naz and Randle as our starting PF next season that seems like a pretty easy call to me. And if the Wolves have to pay Naz $30 million per year because the market tells us that’s his value and we can sign him without losing any core players or bumping up above the 2nd apron, then it would seem to make sense to sign him. My sense is that he won’t get an offer that starts at $30 million per year. I see his top offers starting at around $25 million and I think it would be a big mistake not to sign him at that price.

Naz defensive rating without Rudy in the playoffs 117.1. 6.6 points per 100 worse when Naz gets to play with Rudy.

Same thing happened in the regular season Naz w/o Rudy 115.4 and with Rudy 103.6 (99th percentile).


Rudy is the Naz defensive savior. With Rudy on the floor the wolves are an elite defense when Rudy comes off and Naz is still in the regular season the defense was slightly below average and in the playoffs it cratered. Rudy skews Naz defensive numbers dramatically.

Rudy skews everyone’s defensive numbers. What is Randle’s defensive rating without Rudy? And who’s on the court with Naz when Rudy’s not on the floor? I think the answer is Julius Randle - a player who has a really low career defensive rating. Playing with a poor defender like Randle probably skews Naz Reid’s defensive numbers in the other direction. And guess who else plays with Rudy? The answer: the other four starters including Jaden McDaniels who had essentially the exact same overall defensive rating as Naz. In reality, Rudy is everyone’s (the entire team’s) defensive savior.

In any event, the value Naz brings to the Wolves has context to it. The context is that, if Naz starts next season he’ll be playing next to Rudy (unless we trade Rudy). And playing with Rudy part of the time last season, Naz had the 3rd best defensive rating on the team - 18th best in the League. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not suggesting that Naz is a great defender; not by any stretch. But it’s hyperbolic and inaccurate to say Naz doesn’t defend. As it turns out, Naz is a very good defender statistically when Rudy’s on the floor. That’s just a fact. And he was statistically much better defensively than Randle last season.

What the Wolves decide to do with Naz, Randle and Rudy this offseason should be based on the facts. Those facts tell us we should probably hang onto unless we’re going to jettison both Randle and Naz. The facts also tell us that Naz is much better defensively than Randle with Rudy here - and probably without. Actually, the entire team is much better defensively with Rudy here. I’ve never liked the Rudy deal but I do like Rudy. More importantly, this team’s success seems too intertwined with Rudy to transition away from him any time soon since we have no defensive bigs on the roster who can pick up any of the slack he’d leave behind if the Wolves moved him.

[Lipoli390]

Naz defensive rating without Rudy in the playoffs 117.1. 6.6 points per 100 worse when Naz gets to play with Rudy.

Same thing happened in the regular season Naz w/o Rudy 115.4 and with Rudy 103.6 (99th percentile).


Rudy is the Naz defensive savior. With Rudy on the floor the wolves are an elite defense when Rudy comes off and Naz is still in the regular season the defense was slightly below average and in the playoffs it cratered. Rudy skews Naz defensive numbers dramatically.

Yep, look at how Rudy made towns look last year compared to what his knicks teammates are saying about him this year. For as awkward as Rudy is on offense, he makes pretty much anyone look good or at least decent on D. Just to clarify, when I say 4-80 for Naz that means it’s starting at 17 or whatever it is in the first year. If someone like Brooklyn wants to offer more, let them. Naz is a great story and a fan favorite, but when you start overpaying based on that emotional stuff, that’s when you get in trouble

Agreed on all. I like that idea of a contract structure for Naz. 17,19,21,23.

Future - I think that’s a reasonable contract for Naz not knowing what his market value will turn out to be. I think it will probably take a contract that starts at 20 million to have a legitimate shot at keeping him - something like 22 24, 26, 28. By my calculation, we could give him that contract and end up below the 2nd apron even if Randle exercises his $30 million option and we keep the rest of our players other than NAW. That seems reasonable. What we should NOT do, in my view, is give long term deals to both Randle AND Naz. If we give a long term deal to Naz and Randle opts in then so be it, provided we get Naz at a price that avoids the second apron. But signing both long term seems ill-advised since both play the same position and are primarily offensive oriented players.

I think the best Naz deal for both sides would be a flat four-year deal at $25 million per year. That is probably what it will take to keep him and even then I’m not sure he’ll stay if Randle stays, which would probably mean Naz wouldn’t start and I don’t think he’ll be OK with that.

[Sundog]

I think the biggest problem with Naz’s game is how volatile he is … when he’s doing well, the team does well. But his nights when his 3 is not falling occur way too frequently to rely on him as a starter. Randle on the other hand, was incredibly consistent after coming back from injury this season — even nights when Ant was not feeling it, Julius kept the Wolves in games. A bad series against the best team in the league shouldn’t mask that fact.

Naz cannot replace Randle’s consistent offensive contributions … both players have significant flaws, but that’s a bottom line for me. If Randle leaves or is traded, the Wolves have to find a way to replace the massive hole he leaves behind.