Big O wrote:If Denver beats Portland which is possible given the next two are meaningless for Portland the Wolves Nuggets game decides who is in and who is out of the playoffs. My guess is that if we lose an important game like that, at home, to an inferior team, Glen eats the paltry $24MM and finds a new coach. Think about it, $24MM is a lot of money but when you are old as dirt, filthy rich, and your team just finished out of the lottery for the 15th year in a row, you'd be pissed enough to can the blowhard whom you blame.
I partially agree with you, O. Fans should not underestimate how much Glen wants to win, and how enormously dissatified he is with Thibs right now...both his demeanor and his performance. Sure, we have won several more games this year, but Glen expected that after agreeing to spend millions on Butler, Teague and Gibson. I don't think he even considered the possibility of not making the playoffs this year, and that's why I think the $24 mill won't be the deciding factor here.
I don't agree with your Portland assessment though...their next two are not meaningless. If Utah wins out (and they just might) they will pass Portland for the third seed. And I think the Wolves/Denver game will decide who makes the playoffs regardless of how the Denver/Portland game ends up.
To be fair... does it really make a difference if Portland is #3 or #4. They still have homecourt... and it's not like they have much say in who they'll be playing. With all the tied teams, it could be NOP, OKC or SA, right?
They really have very little at stake win or lose beyond momentum... which can be meaningless once the playoffs hit.
That 3 might get a Warriors team without Steph in the second round where the 4 gets the Rockets. 3 v 4 absolutely is a big deal.
That Denver/Portland game is huge if the wolves beat the Grizzlies and the nuggets lose to the blazers the wolves clinch on Monday. No matter the result of the last game of the year
I am on the miss the playoffs or bust bus at this point. I am pulling for Jazz and Nuggets until Thibs is replaced. Hard to say that after all these years.
longstrangetrip wrote:I clearly hear the majority view here, and I wish I felt the same way...it's a much healthier way for a fan to feel. But I come down on Lip's side...an 8th seed is not optimal for this team. It's not the .5% chance of a top 3 pick that sways my opinion. It's these factors:
1) My G2 that Thibs is on the hot seat if the team doesn't make the playoffs, and conversely, that he is certain to stay if they do. A new coach is much more important to the future of this team (and to my viewing enjoyment) than playoff experience, especially against a team that destroyed us 4 times this year (3 times by 18 points)
2) The avoidance of a 4-game sweep with all losses double digit. This Thibs defense has proven over and over again that it simply can't defend the 3-point shot, and I would prefer avoiding the agony of watching 150 wide-open threes over the course of a series.
3) The avoidance of a negative experience for our young guys. Yes, playoff experience can be good for a young team, but not if the experience is a complete disaster. And come on, guys...you know that this would be a complete disaster.
4) The 14th pick in the draft. I hear Abe's point that we fans are tired of hoping draft picks will turn this team around. But wouldn't you rather have Miles Bridges (or the available wing of your choice) backing up our wings over Jamal Crawford?
I will be actively cheering for the Heat to beat the crap out of OkC tomorrow night, because I would very much enjoy a playoff series against Portland or Utah. But if OkC wins, I don't want the Wolves to beat Denver in the finale and end up playing the Rockets. The four points I lay out above are just too persuasive to me.
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Playoffs or not... does anybody really believe Thibs isn't coming back?
Firing him after the first winning season in 13 years doesn't seem like a Taylor move. Neither does eating $24M or whatever it is.
Most have reservations with Thibs... to varying degrees. But we might as well plan for hoping him to fail NEXT year because that's going to be when he really starts feeling the heat. If the Wolves miss the playoffs this season, I think Wiggins takes a lot more heat than Thibs does... whether that should be the case can be debated. But usually in these situations, there's one person who becomes the fall guy. And I think with Wiggins contract staring at us... and Wiggins already showing up on "Most Disappointing Player" lists... he gets the heat first.
Next season... it's Thibs turn.
As for your hypothetical drafted wing vs. Crawford angle. It's quite the staged one. Isn't it just as likely the team drafts another Justin Patton or Shabazz Muhammad or William Avery as it is a quality wing (and this part is important) that Thibs thinks deserves run over a guy like Jamal Crawford?
And a negative experience for the players? If they're THAT soft... that watching the playoffs as one of the relatively few teams who miss out is better than playing in a tournament that many of the best players play in every single year... it's better to learn about it now and start planning another rebuild. If they're THAT type of competitor... get rid of them. Now. Even if for 8 cents on the dollar. Seriously.
Great post, Abe. As usual, it's both thoughtful and entertaining. But I'm so disgusted with Thibs that I'm willing to take the chance that missing the playoffs is the impetus needed to get Taylor to eat the $24 million. We're all aware of the Wolves historically pathetic use of the draft, especially outside the top 5 of the first round. But that's part of why I want Thibs gone. I'd like someone running our front office who we can trust to make optimal use of the picks we have or acquire young players recently drafted relatively low by other teams. Just last summer with the 16th pick, we could have drafted Kuzma (#27), John Collins (#19) or Josh Hart (#30) instead of Patton. I know the automatic response is that the jury's out on Patton. Yes, but compare his G-League stats with the real NBA stats of the others and there shouldn't be much debate about what Thibs should have done. In fact, there's an argument we would have been better of with Dillon Brooks (#45) or Jordan Bell (#38). Flip wasn't much better, although he did draft LaVine at #13. McHale was putrid in his use of the draft and Kahn was even worse tha putrid. Can we please hire someone to run the front office who is really good at the job?
I understand the odds of landing a good player at #15, but the more picks the better the chance of success, even if it's Thibs and Layden making the picks. Even better if someone more astute is making the picks. And better yet if we have a head coach better suited to the modern NBA who can get the most out of the players we have.
We'll just have to agree to disagree on this issue.
I'm watching the Detroit-Memphis game right now. MarShon Brooks looks great. He's not just scoring, he's also making some nice passes and handling the ball well. In the 4 games before today since Memphis signed him, MarShon is averaging 23.3 PPG, 3.5 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 28 minutes. In his 25 games with the Sixers, Belinelli is averaging 28 minutes, and 13.3 points per game on 39.5% shooting from behind the arc. In his 20 games with the Sixers, Ilyasova is averaging 10.5 points and 6.6 rebounds in 24 minutes per game. Thibs signed Derrick Rose.
Speaking of the Grizzlies, they're really playing hard and playing cohesively. They have a pretty good young head coach who used to be an assistant here. The Wolves will have to be at their best to beat Memphis here Monday night. I fully expect the Wolves to win and, assuming Butler is feeling good, I think the win will be lopsided.
More on the Memphis Grizzlies. They entered last summer's draft with no picks. The walked away from the draft with Dillon Brooks, PAC-10 player of the year, and Ivan Rabb who averaged 10.5 rebounds per game in college last season. They swapped two future 2nd rounders for these two 2nd round picks last June. That's impressive.
Big O wrote:If Denver beats Portland which is possible given the next two are meaningless for Portland the Wolves Nuggets game decides who is in and who is out of the playoffs. My guess is that if we lose an important game like that, at home, to an inferior team, Glen eats the paltry $24MM and finds a new coach. Think about it, $24MM is a lot of money but when you are old as dirt, filthy rich, and your team just finished out of the lottery for the 15th year in a row, you'd be pissed enough to can the blowhard whom you blame.
I partially agree with you, O. Fans should not underestimate how much Glen wants to win, and how enormously dissatified he is with Thibs right now...both his demeanor and his performance. Sure, we have won several more games this year, but Glen expected that after agreeing to spend millions on Butler, Teague and Gibson. I don't think he even considered the possibility of not making the playoffs this year, and that's why I think the $24 mill won't be the deciding factor here.
I don't agree with your Portland assessment though...their next two are not meaningless. If Utah wins out (and they just might) they will pass Portland for the third seed. And I think the Wolves/Denver game will decide who makes the playoffs regardless of how the Denver/Portland game ends up.
To be fair... does it really make a difference if Portland is #3 or #4. They still have homecourt... and it's not like they have much say in who they'll be playing. With all the tied teams, it could be NOP, OKC or SA, right?
They really have very little at stake win or lose beyond momentum... which can be meaningless once the playoffs hit.
That 3 might get a Warriors team without Steph in the second round where the 4 gets the Rockets. 3 v 4 absolutely is a big deal.
That Denver/Portland game is huge if the wolves beat the Grizzlies and the nuggets lose to the blazers the wolves clinch on Monday. No matter the result of the last game of the year
My mistake, kek, thanks for the correction. You are correct that a Denver loss against Portland likely makes our finale against Denver irrelevant (and totally irrelevant if we beat Memphis). Denver's motivation in that game may be more than Portland, because I don't believe the game means anything to the Blazers...they are likely the third seed if they beat Utah in their finale, and 4th if they lose.
Big O wrote:If Denver beats Portland which is possible given the next two are meaningless for Portland the Wolves Nuggets game decides who is in and who is out of the playoffs. My guess is that if we lose an important game like that, at home, to an inferior team, Glen eats the paltry $24MM and finds a new coach. Think about it, $24MM is a lot of money but when you are old as dirt, filthy rich, and your team just finished out of the lottery for the 15th year in a row, you'd be pissed enough to can the blowhard whom you blame.
I partially agree with you, O. Fans should not underestimate how much Glen wants to win, and how enormously dissatified he is with Thibs right now...both his demeanor and his performance. Sure, we have won several more games this year, but Glen expected that after agreeing to spend millions on Butler, Teague and Gibson. I don't think he even considered the possibility of not making the playoffs this year, and that's why I think the $24 mill won't be the deciding factor here.
I don't agree with your Portland assessment though...their next two are not meaningless. If Utah wins out (and they just might) they will pass Portland for the third seed. And I think the Wolves/Denver game will decide who makes the playoffs regardless of how the Denver/Portland game ends up.
To be fair... does it really make a difference if Portland is #3 or #4. They still have homecourt... and it's not like they have much say in who they'll be playing. With all the tied teams, it could be NOP, OKC or SA, right?
They really have very little at stake win or lose beyond momentum... which can be meaningless once the playoffs hit.
That 3 might get a Warriors team without Steph in the second round where the 4 gets the Rockets. 3 v 4 absolutely is a big deal.
That Denver/Portland game is huge if the wolves beat the Grizzlies and the nuggets lose to the blazers the wolves clinch on Monday. No matter the result of the last game of the year
My mistake, kek, thanks for the correction. You are correct that a Denver loss against Portland likely makes our finale against Denver irrelevant (and totally irrelevant if we beat Memphis). Denver's motivation in that game may be more than Portland, because I don't believe the game means anything to the Blazers...they are likely the third seed if they beat Utah in their finale, and 4th if they lose.
Hard to assess relative levels of motivation. The Blazers will be defending their 3rd seed when they play Denver because they can't count on what Utah does. In any event, I'll be pulling for Denver. If Denver beats Portland and we lose to Memphis, I think we would still finish 8th with a win over Denver next Wednesday. I expect us to beat Memphis Monday night, so it will be up to Denver to beat Portland. If that happens, I'll probably be pulling for Denver next Wednesday night. I'm counting on a 9th place finish as enough to push Glen over the threshold into firing Thibs. But what a bummer if we finish 9th and Thibs stays!
Focusing on other teams like Memphis today, I'll turn my attention to the Pacers. Talk about an organization that has its act together. Paul George all but said he wouldn't stay in Indiana. Yet, even though the world knew the position the Pacers were in, the Pacers' front office was able to deal Paul George for Oladipo and Sabonis. As it turns out, Oladipo has been fantastic, actually putting up better numbers than Paul George and leading his team 48 wins so far -- a team expected to be in the lottery. Then add in Sabonis, who has averaged 11.4 points and 7.7 rebounds in 24 minutes per game. Note also that neither Oladipo nor Sabonis are threatening to or likely to leave. Consider also that the Pacers signed Darren Collison for a mere 2 year $10 million per year contract. Collison has averaged 12.4 points, 5.4 assists, 2.6 rebounds and 1.4 assists in 29.5 minutes per game, while shooting 49.7% from the field and 46.5% from behind the arc. Congrats to the Pacers' front office on a job well done.
Big O wrote:If Denver beats Portland which is possible given the next two are meaningless for Portland the Wolves Nuggets game decides who is in and who is out of the playoffs. My guess is that if we lose an important game like that, at home, to an inferior team, Glen eats the paltry $24MM and finds a new coach. Think about it, $24MM is a lot of money but when you are old as dirt, filthy rich, and your team just finished out of the lottery for the 15th year in a row, you'd be pissed enough to can the blowhard whom you blame.
I partially agree with you, O. Fans should not underestimate how much Glen wants to win, and how enormously dissatified he is with Thibs right now...both his demeanor and his performance. Sure, we have won several more games this year, but Glen expected that after agreeing to spend millions on Butler, Teague and Gibson. I don't think he even considered the possibility of not making the playoffs this year, and that's why I think the $24 mill won't be the deciding factor here.
I don't agree with your Portland assessment though...their next two are not meaningless. If Utah wins out (and they just might) they will pass Portland for the third seed. And I think the Wolves/Denver game will decide who makes the playoffs regardless of how the Denver/Portland game ends up.
To be fair... does it really make a difference if Portland is #3 or #4. They still have homecourt... and it's not like they have much say in who they'll be playing. With all the tied teams, it could be NOP, OKC or SA, right?
They really have very little at stake win or lose beyond momentum... which can be meaningless once the playoffs hit.
That 3 might get a Warriors team without Steph in the second round where the 4 gets the Rockets. 3 v 4 absolutely is a big deal.
That Denver/Portland game is huge if the wolves beat the Grizzlies and the nuggets lose to the blazers the wolves clinch on Monday. No matter the result of the last game of the year
My mistake, kek, thanks for the correction. You are correct that a Denver loss against Portland likely makes our finale against Denver irrelevant (and totally irrelevant if we beat Memphis). Denver's motivation in that game may be more than Portland, because I don't believe the game means anything to the Blazers...they are likely the third seed if they beat Utah in their finale, and 4th if they lose.
Hard to assess relative levels of motivation. The Blazers will be defending their 3rd seed when they play Denver because they can't count on what Utah does. In any event, I'll be pulling for Denver. If Denver beats Portland and we lose to Memphis, I think we would still finish 8th with a win over Denver next Wednesday. I expect us to beat Memphis Monday night, so it will be up to Denver to beat Portland. If that happens, I'll probably be pulling for Denver next Wednesday night. I'm counting on a 9th place finish as enough to push Glen over the threshold into firing Thibs. But what a bummer if we finish 9th and Thibs stays!
Thats sad man. We are in still in decent shape to be higher than the 8 seed. We can be as high as the 5 seed and a pretty darn good chance to be the 6 seed but you are hoping we lose out so we can be the 9 seed and have yet another year of no playoffs.
That is a losing attitude you are better than that.
Big O wrote:If Denver beats Portland which is possible given the next two are meaningless for Portland the Wolves Nuggets game decides who is in and who is out of the playoffs. My guess is that if we lose an important game like that, at home, to an inferior team, Glen eats the paltry $24MM and finds a new coach. Think about it, $24MM is a lot of money but when you are old as dirt, filthy rich, and your team just finished out of the lottery for the 15th year in a row, you'd be pissed enough to can the blowhard whom you blame.
I partially agree with you, O. Fans should not underestimate how much Glen wants to win, and how enormously dissatified he is with Thibs right now...both his demeanor and his performance. Sure, we have won several more games this year, but Glen expected that after agreeing to spend millions on Butler, Teague and Gibson. I don't think he even considered the possibility of not making the playoffs this year, and that's why I think the $24 mill won't be the deciding factor here.
I don't agree with your Portland assessment though...their next two are not meaningless. If Utah wins out (and they just might) they will pass Portland for the third seed. And I think the Wolves/Denver game will decide who makes the playoffs regardless of how the Denver/Portland game ends up.
To be fair... does it really make a difference if Portland is #3 or #4. They still have homecourt... and it's not like they have much say in who they'll be playing. With all the tied teams, it could be NOP, OKC or SA, right?
They really have very little at stake win or lose beyond momentum... which can be meaningless once the playoffs hit.
That 3 might get a Warriors team without Steph in the second round where the 4 gets the Rockets. 3 v 4 absolutely is a big deal.
That Denver/Portland game is huge if the wolves beat the Grizzlies and the nuggets lose to the blazers the wolves clinch on Monday. No matter the result of the last game of the year
My mistake, kek, thanks for the correction. You are correct that a Denver loss against Portland likely makes our finale against Denver irrelevant (and totally irrelevant if we beat Memphis). Denver's motivation in that game may be more than Portland, because I don't believe the game means anything to the Blazers...they are likely the third seed if they beat Utah in their finale, and 4th if they lose.
Hard to assess relative levels of motivation. The Blazers will be defending their 3rd seed when they play Denver because they can't count on what Utah does. In any event, I'll be pulling for Denver. If Denver beats Portland and we lose to Memphis, I think we would still finish 8th with a win over Denver next Wednesday. I expect us to beat Memphis Monday night, so it will be up to Denver to beat Portland. If that happens, I'll probably be pulling for Denver next Wednesday night. I'm counting on a 9th place finish as enough to push Glen over the threshold into firing Thibs. But what a bummer if we finish 9th and Thibs stays!
Thats sad man. We are in still in decent shape to be higher than the 8 seed. We can be as high as the 5 seed and a pretty darn good chance to be the 6 seed but you are hoping we lose out so we can be the 9 seed and have yet another year of no playoffs.
That is a losing attitude you are better than that.
If we're in a position to land a 7th seed or higher next Wednesday night, I'll definitely be pulling for the Wolves. But if it's between 8th and 9th, then I'm inclined to root for the Nuggets because I want Thibs out of here. I wish I were better than that, but I'm not. On the other hand, knowing me, when I show up at the game next Wednesday my heart will take over and I'll ruin my voice cheering for the Wolves. :)
