Minnesota Sports Forum

The window is now Closed! Here are the final predictions:

60WinTim - 51
TheSP - 50
crazysauce - 46
Lipoli - 46
ItsJustSoSab - 46
lead01 - 45
cpg29 - 45
thedoper - 44
BloopOracle - 44
CO Transplant - 44
kekgeek - 43
Phenom - 43
rapsuperstar - 42
Camden - 42
KiwiMatt - 41
Sundog - 41
worldK - 40
D'Natagal - 39
Mikkeman - 39
Volans - 39
Monsterpile - 38
SameOldNudityDrew - 38
Bleed - 37
Cool - 37
Abe - 36
TheFuture - 36
Jester - 35
FNG - 35
Q - 34
KG4Ever - 33
PorkChop - 32
WolvesFan - 29
mrhockey - 28

Wolves are on pace to win 27 games

I wasn't expecting a 4-6 record at best out of the gate through the first 10 games, and it'll most likely be 3-7 after Wednesday's game against 9-1 Golden State, but there's reason for optimism if you squint a little bit.

Minnesota's team defensive rating ranks 13th in the NBA, which is much better than any of us would have expected. Whether or not that can be sustained over the 82-game schedule remains to be seen, but the scheme certainly fits the personnel much better than what was implemented in the past so at least it's a possibility. Furthermore, this team is severely underperforming as the 25th ranked offense in the league. This is eye-opening because the Wolves had the sixth-best offense last year post-All Star break, or basically close to the time Chris Finch took over head coaching duties.

The cause for such disappointment can be attributed to several factors, but none more important than their shooting. Minnesota's ranked 23rd overall in three-point shooting (32.8%), and 26th in wide open three-point percentage (32.9%) despite generating the 10th-most wide open three-point attempts. What that tells me is that the offense is creating good shots. They just aren't making them at the expected rate. Unlike in past years where the team simply lacked perimeter shooters, this year's team is arguably well-equipped with shot-makers... they're just missing a lot more than they ever have for their careers. Here are Minnesota's top eight deep threats and their career averages (not including this year) versus their production through the first nine games of the season.

Karl-Anthony Towns: 39.4% -- 46.7%
Malik Beasley: 39.1% -- 33.3%
Patrick Beverley: 38.2% -- 43.5%
Taurean Prince: 37.0% -- 16.7%
Jaden McDaniels: 36.4% -- 26.1%
D'Angelo Russell: 36.0% -- 32.8%
Naz Reid: 34.3% -- 34.6%
Anthony Edwards: 32.9% -- 31.4%

Either these players fell asleep one night and forgot how to shoot the basketball the next morning, which is unlikely, or they're in the midst of a nasty slump and their percentages will correct themselves as the season continues. I find this to be a good thing in that the team is 3-6 and shooting poorly versus being 3-6 with everything going right. There's at least expected statistical regression that should make the Wolves a better basketball team moving forward. How many wins does Minnesota have right now if their shooters simply convert their attempts closer to their career norms? Probably more than three.

Have they played a back to back yet this season?

Camden wrote:I wasn't expecting a 4-6 record at best out of the gate through the first 10 games, and it'll most likely be 3-7 after Wednesday's game against 9-1 Golden State, but there's reason for optimism if you squint a little bit.

Minnesota's team defensive rating ranks 13th in the NBA, which is much better than any of us would have expected. Whether or not that can be sustained over the 82-game schedule remains to be seen, but the scheme certainly fits the personnel much better than what was implemented in the past so at least it's a possibility. Furthermore, this team is severely underperforming as the 25th ranked offense in the league. This is eye-opening because the Wolves had the sixth-best offense last year post-All Star break, or basically close to the time Chris Finch took over head coaching duties.

The cause for such disappointment can be attributed to several factors, but none more important than their shooting. Minnesota's ranked 23rd overall in three-point shooting (32.8%), and 26th in wide open three-point percentage (32.9%) despite generating the 10th-most wide open three-point attempts. What that tells me is that the offense is creating good shots. They just aren't making them at the expected rate. Unlike in past years where the team simply lacked perimeter shooters, this year's team is arguably well-equipped with shot-makers... they're just missing a lot more than they ever have for their careers. Here are Minnesota's top eight deep threats and their career averages (not including this year) versus their production through the first nine games of the season.

Karl-Anthony Towns: 39.4% -- 46.7%
Malik Beasley: 39.1% -- 33.3%
Patrick Beverley: 38.2% -- 43.5%
Taurean Prince: 37.0% -- 16.7%
Jaden McDaniels: 36.4% -- 26.1%
D'Angelo Russell: 36.0% -- 32.8%
Naz Reid: 34.3% -- 34.6%
Anthony Edwards: 32.9% -- 31.4%

Either these players fell asleep one night and forgot how to shoot the basketball the next morning, which is unlikely, or they're in the midst of a nasty slump and their percentages will correct themselves as the season continues. I find this to be a good thing in that the team is 3-6 and shooting poorly versus being 3-6 with everything going right. There's at least expected statistical regression that should make the Wolves a better basketball team moving forward. How many wins does Minnesota have right now if their shooters simply convert their attempts closer to their career norms? Probably more than three.

There's no question that most of this roster is not shooting threes as well as they have historically, and I agree that is one reason for optimism in the midst of a 5 game losing streak (which might be a 9-gamer after the Suns game on the 15th. If our shooting returns to normal, we somehow continue the defensive improvement we have seen, and stay as healthy as we have been through the first 9 games, we might look more like a 40-win team than a 25-win team. A lot of "ifs" there, but not totally out of the question.

If I were to put a more negative spin on it, it would be this. We're 3-6 now, but what do people think our record would be if both we and our opponents had been 100% healthy? I would argue that we would have won our opener against Houston, but only maybe won one of our other games...one of the two against the Pelicans with Zion. Although the fact that we only split with them without Zion makes that only a maybe. And I don't see us beating a Clippers team with Kawhi even with DLo playing, or a Bucks team with its two missing starters back or a Nuggets team with Murray. So I think we would have started the season 1-8 or maybe 2-7. I know this is a hypothetical, but it helps us to realistically analyze the start we are off to.

The biggest thing to consider is what is our future look like with DLO/KAT?

NBA Championship? If that is out of the question then we need to start making plans to move on from both.

WolvesFan21 wrote:The biggest thing to consider is what is our future look like with DLO/KAT?

NBA Championship? If that is out of the question then we need to start making plans to move on from both.

Given the current state of the franchise, they shouldn't be thinking championship or bust. They should be working towards being a competent and competitive organization and going from there. That unfortunately means baby steps and making the playoffs first. I'll also add that the conversation is no longer about just Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell, but it's about those two and whatever player Anthony Edwards develops into.

Camden wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:The biggest thing to consider is what is our future look like with DLO/KAT?

NBA Championship? If that is out of the question then we need to start making plans to move on from both.

Given the current state of the franchise, they shouldn't be thinking championship or bust. They should be working towards being a competent and competitive organization and going from there. That unfortunately means baby steps and making the playoffs first. I'll also add that the conversation is no longer about just Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell, but it's about those two and whatever player Anthony Edwards develops into.

Yeah but they are not making baby steps into making the playoffs, so far at least. So that's the point. We need to see progress in wins and losses, yet we are not. If this team made the playoffs this season with 40-42 wins, I could see a path to contention in a few seasons. Continued growth from Ant/Jaden and even DLO/KAT.

I need to see progress or I'm fine in making moves. In fact it would be foolish not to try and make moves to get better if we don't see progress.

WolvesFan21 wrote:

Camden wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:The biggest thing to consider is what is our future look like with DLO/KAT?

NBA Championship? If that is out of the question then we need to start making plans to move on from both.

Given the current state of the franchise, they shouldn't be thinking championship or bust. They should be working towards being a competent and competitive organization and going from there. That unfortunately means baby steps and making the playoffs first. I'll also add that the conversation is no longer about just Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell, but it's about those two and whatever player Anthony Edwards develops into.

Yeah but they are not making baby steps into making the playoffs, so far at least. So that's the point. We need to see progress in wins and losses, yet we are not. If this team made the playoffs this season with 40-42 wins, I could see a path to contention in a few seasons. Continued growth from Ant/Jaden and even DLO/KAT.

I need to see progress or I'm fine in making moves. In fact it would be foolish not to try and make moves to get better if we don't see progress.

I don't think we really disagree here. It sounds like we're saying similar things. I was one of those who agreed with blowing it up if this team can only gather 30-ish wins with reasonable health. That's definitely not good enough.

But we also have to remind ourselves that it's only been nine games and the offense that looked to be the strength of this team has opened the season in a slump. Not only is there 73 games left to be played, but there's also the expected bounce back from the scorers on the team. Frankly, too many guys are playing much worse than they ever have. We can agree to disagree on this last part, but I don't expect half of the rotation to continue being below replacement level scorers. That leads me to believe that this team still has a path to the playoffs with this core. And that should be the goal for now. Make the playoffs. Any talk of championships should be tabled until this team isn't an embarrassment.

Camden wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:

Camden wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:The biggest thing to consider is what is our future look like with DLO/KAT?

NBA Championship? If that is out of the question then we need to start making plans to move on from both.

Given the current state of the franchise, they shouldn't be thinking championship or bust. They should be working towards being a competent and competitive organization and going from there. That unfortunately means baby steps and making the playoffs first. I'll also add that the conversation is no longer about just Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell, but it's about those two and whatever player Anthony Edwards develops into.

Yeah but they are not making baby steps into making the playoffs, so far at least. So that's the point. We need to see progress in wins and losses, yet we are not. If this team made the playoffs this season with 40-42 wins, I could see a path to contention in a few seasons. Continued growth from Ant/Jaden and even DLO/KAT.

I need to see progress or I'm fine in making moves. In fact it would be foolish not to try and make moves to get better if we don't see progress.

I don't think we really disagree here. It sounds like we're saying similar things. I was one of those who agreed with blowing it up if this team can only gather 30-ish wins with reasonable health. That's definitely not good enough.

But we also have to remind ourselves that it's only been nine games and the offense that looked to be the strength of this team has opened the season in a slump. Not only is there 73 games left to be played, but there's also the expected bounce back from the scorers on the team. Frankly, too many guys are playing much worse than they ever have. We can agree to disagree on this last part, but I don't expect half of the rotation to continue being below replacement level scorers. That leads me to believe that this team still has a path to the playoffs with this core. And that should be the goal for now. Make the playoffs. Any talk of championships should be tabled until this team isn't an embarrassment.

You may be right Cam, but at what point is the hole too big to climb out of? And it's not like things get easier for us over the next few games. The hole could get deep REAL fast. And at that point, you aren't just hoping for guys to revert to their mean but now you need multiple guys to get white-hot while staying largely injury free. This team's mental fragility just couldn't afford such a bad first 9 games.