AbeVigodaLive wrote:Luka Doncic is 21.
Jayson Tatum is 22.
Jaylen Brown is 23.
Shai Gilgeous Alexander is 22.
Donovan Mitchell is 23.
Jamal Murray is 23.
So that's 6 out of how many people drafted in that same time period? So we just have to be near flawless at prospect evaluation for a rebuild through the draft to work. Got it. 6/180 (3 years in this case) is a 3% chance to hit that caliber of player and we don't develop players well hence the "if our prospects follow the same timeline our high end young talent had".
The Warriors won 47 games in the 2011-12 season, 51 games in the 2012 season and a record 73 games in the4 2013-14 season. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green were both 21, 22 and 23 years in their 2nd 3rd and 4th seasons during that span. Curry was age 23, 24 and 25.
The NBA is more of a young guy's game than ever before. Different players develop at different speeds, but it's typical for great players to come into their own in their 2nd and 3rd seasons while in their early 20s. But age isn't the issue here. The question is whether DLO was the right guy to pair with KAT as the core of an eventual championship contender. Does he have the talent, temperament and complementary skill set to be that guy? My sense is that he doesn't. And for that reason, I wouldn't have given up the picks to bring him here. But I see the argument on the other side. Rosas didn't have another potential all-star on the roster to pair with KAT when he took over and he messed up in last year's draft. He was also stuck with the Wiggins contract. So Rosas' decision to do the DLO deal is totally understandable.
It's always the exception to the rule that proves the strategy is best somehow even though it's only ever done by literally 1 team out of 30 every couple of years. "Well the Warriors drafted Steph, Klay and Draymond and won early" (failing to mention all the veteran talent around them that we don't have). "The Thunder drafted Westbrook, KD and Harden" (the only real pure draft strategy that built through the draft with little help from trades and FA's). "The Celtics drafted Tatum and Brown" (failing to mention they've been consistently flanked with veteran All-Stars like Kyrie, Horford, Kemba and a hurt Hayward). Always the "just draft good 4head" strategy after 20 years of having a horrible overall track record of drafting. There are two fold more teams who have tried and failed at that strategy which is why these are exceptions and not the norm.
There are a lot of great young players. It's not a young guys league. Half that list of 6 didn't make it out of the first round. Tatum and Brown are the two who might make it far in the playoffs on a stacked team around them. The veterans are slapping the young guns around right now (Jimmy and the Heat are taking Giannis and the Bucks lunch money right now after they took it all from the young Pacers squad in round 1, Kawhi and PG entertained Luka for a couple games and then just eviscerated Jokic/Murray and Denver last night).
We just don't have the same environment that enabled the success of all those exceptions to the rule. At what point do you start trying to win? Russell wasn't the move for you so let's say we don't make that trade and keep playing the lottery. When do we try to win around Towns? How much losing do you think a player can go through and still come out on top with that team long-term? How are we not just becoming the Pelicans in that scenario with KAT and no help every year until he leaves?
I get your point about going for it. I just disagree. But let's not kid ourselves. The Warriors weren't the best team in the League for several years running because of the veterans around Klay, Steph and Draymond. You won because of their core three stars. Same for the Thunder with Durant, Westbrook and Harden. Same for the Bulls with Jordan, Pippen and Grant. Same for the Jazz with Stockton and Malone. Now we have the Celtics with Tatum, Brown and Walker - two of those three in their early 20s. Yes, you need the right role players around your stars. But it's all about your core stars with rare exception. Having at least two of your core three grow and develop together is the best approach for success and especially for sustained success. And there's plenty of precedent for being a contender with a young core of two or three players in their early 20s, especially more recently.
But again, the bigger issue for me is whether you have the right core guys - their overall talent, their will to win, their toughness and how well they fit together. That's the issue; not age. I don't think we have a particularly good mix now with KAT, Russell and Beasley. At the same time, I'm happier with that core three than Towns, Wiggins and LaVine. And I'm done talking about the Russell deal. He's hear and his presence along with Beasley significantly improves this team. For me the more important issue is whether we have the right head coach. I don't think we do. And I think we need to add another allstar caliber player. I think our best chance of doing that is through the draft. I have no doubt there are some future allstars in this draft. It's up to the Wolves front office to identify and draft at least one of them.
Good news from the bubble: the Lakers lost game 1 to the Rockets. For me, it's always a good day when the Lakers lose - especially when they're cashed in on their Hollywood cache to assemble a so-called super team via free agency.
The Heat went up 3-0 tonight over the Bucks. It's not that the Bucks aren't a great team; they are. Miami is simply better and they're gelling at the right time. Butler, Bam, Dragic and Herro are the key core players in my view, but they have other key contributors and are really well coached. They're not worried about style or individual accomplishment. Instead they play as a team and everyone plays with consistent intensity and a competitive edge.
I've been watching the Miami/Milwaukee games and Jimmy Butler's post-game press conferences. I wasn't thrilled with bringing Butler to the Wolves and I didn't like the way things ended with him. But watching how he's played in this series and listening to him talk after these games tells me the problem here wasn't Jimmy. The problem was Wiggins, KAT and even more so the organization. In his press conferences this week, Jimmy has heaped praise on his teammates, especially the young guys. He talks about how hard they play and how hard they practice. I hope Towns has been watching and doing some serious self-reflection. Butler can be a jerk and acted out in ways that weren't what should be expected from a leader who the organization was counting on to mentor 22 year olds. But there must have been something lacking in KAT's approach to the game that caused Jimmy to take what appeared to be such a hostile view of him. It wasn't clear to me before, but watching and listening to Jimmy in the bubble has prompted me to shine the light on KAT and wonder what it was about his approach to the game that pissed off Butler. I suspect it goes beyond poor defense and has something to do with KAT's overall approach. Whatever it was, it definitely needs to change
lipoli390 wrote:Good news from the bubble: the Lakers lost game 1 to the Rockets. For me, it's always a good day when the Lakers lose - especially when they're cashed in on their Hollywood cache to assemble a so-called super team via free agency.
The Heat went up 3-0 tonight over the Bucks. It's not that the Bucks aren't a great team; they are. Miami is simply better and they're gelling at the right time. Butler, Bam, Dragic and Herro are the key core players in my view, but they have other key contributors and are really well coached. They're not worried about style or individual accomplishment. Instead they play as a team and everyone plays with consistent intensity and a competitive edge.
I've been watching the Miami/Milwaukee games and Jimmy Butler's post-game press conferences. I wasn't thrilled with bringing Butler to the Wolves and I didn't like the way things ended with him. But watching how he's played in this series and listening to him talk after these games tells me the problem here wasn't Jimmy. The problem was Wiggins, KAT and even more so the organization. In his press conferences this week, Jimmy has heaped praise on his teammates, especially the young guys. He talks about how hard they play and how hard they practice. I hope Towns has been watching and doing some serious self-reflection. Butler can be a jerk and acted out in ways that weren't what should be expected from a leader who the organization was counting on to mentor 22 year olds. But there must have been something lacking in KAT's approach to the game that caused Jimmy to take what appeared to be such a hostile view of him. It wasn't clear to me before, but watching and listening to Jimmy in the bubble has prompted me to shine the light on KAT and wonder what it was about his approach to the game that pissed off Butler. I suspect it goes beyond poor defense and has something to do with KAT's overall approach. Whatever it was, it definitely needs to change
I suspect many things. Jimmy has learned from his stints here, CHI and PHI. Riley and Spoelstra are elite when it comes to running things and coaching (Ogre, a disaster, lol). I still give Miami zero percent chance of beating the Clippers, unless the Clips suffer some major injury/s. Boston will probably beat them too, we'll see.
I'd give it up to Riley and Spoelstra though. Mostly. And yes, it reflects badly on Ogre and Glen.
PJ Tucker and Robert Covington are absolutely PERFECT fits with what Houston is trying to do. 3 & D forwards that can also mix it up inside and switch onto anyone. Now throw Westbrook into the mix and this team isn't really that small in how they play. All these guys punch above their weight.
lipoli390 wrote:Good news from the bubble: the Lakers lost game 1 to the Rockets. For me, it's always a good day when the Lakers lose - especially when they're cashed in on their Hollywood cache to assemble a so-called super team via free agency.
The Heat went up 3-0 tonight over the Bucks. It's not that the Bucks aren't a great team; they are. Miami is simply better and they're gelling at the right time. Butler, Bam, Dragic and Herro are the key core players in my view, but they have other key contributors and are really well coached. They're not worried about style or individual accomplishment. Instead they play as a team and everyone plays with consistent intensity and a competitive edge.
I've been watching the Miami/Milwaukee games and Jimmy Butler's post-game press conferences. I wasn't thrilled with bringing Butler to the Wolves and I didn't like the way things ended with him. But watching how he's played in this series and listening to him talk after these games tells me the problem here wasn't Jimmy. The problem was Wiggins, KAT and even more so the organization. In his press conferences this week, Jimmy has heaped praise on his teammates, especially the young guys. He talks about how hard they play and how hard they practice. I hope Towns has been watching and doing some serious self-reflection. Butler can be a jerk and acted out in ways that weren't what should be expected from a leader who the organization was counting on to mentor 22 year olds. But there must have been something lacking in KAT's approach to the game that caused Jimmy to take what appeared to be such a hostile view of him. It wasn't clear to me before, but watching and listening to Jimmy in the bubble has prompted me to shine the light on KAT and wonder what it was about his approach to the game that pissed off Butler. I suspect it goes beyond poor defense and has something to do with KAT's overall approach. Whatever it was, it definitely needs to change
I suspect many things. Jimmy has learned from his stints here, CHI and PHI. Riley and Spoelstra are elite when it comes to running things and coaching (Ogre, a disaster, lol). I still give Miami zero percent chance of beating the Clippers, unless the Clips suffer some major injury/s. Boston will probably beat them too, we'll see.
I'd give it up to Riley and Spoelstra though. Mostly. And yes, it reflects badly on Ogre and Glen.
I agree that Jimmy probably did some self-reflection and learned from his experiences with the Wolves and Sixers, which made it three teams in a row that didn't want to keep him in spite of his prowess as a player. And yes, you have to give the Miami organization credit as well.
Q12543 wrote:PJ Tucker and Robert Covington are absolutely PERFECT fits with what Houston is trying to do. 3 & D forwards that can also mix it up inside and switch onto anyone. Now throw Westbrook into the mix and this team isn't really that small in how they play. All these guys punch above their weight.
Good point, Q. So assuming Rosas and Ryan want to emulate the Rockets, who in this draft would best fit that 3&D forward mold for the Wolves?
Q12543 wrote:PJ Tucker and Robert Covington are absolutely PERFECT fits with what Houston is trying to do. 3 & D forwards that can also mix it up inside and switch onto anyone. Now throw Westbrook into the mix and this team isn't really that small in how they play. All these guys punch above their weight.
Good point, Q. So assuming Rosas and Ryan want to emulate the Rockets, who in this draft would best fit that 3&D forward mold for the Wolves?
Saddiq Bey is going to be an absolutely key piece -- as a role player -- for some team moving forward.
Q12543 wrote:PJ Tucker and Robert Covington are absolutely PERFECT fits with what Houston is trying to do. 3 & D forwards that can also mix it up inside and switch onto anyone. Now throw Westbrook into the mix and this team isn't really that small in how they play. All these guys punch above their weight.
Good point, Q. So assuming Rosas and Ryan want to emulate the Rockets, who in this draft would best fit that 3&D forward mold for the Wolves?
Saddiq Bey is going to be an absolutely key piece -- as a role player -- for some team moving forward.
I agree, Cam. Unfortunately, I don't see him being available at #17 for the Wolves and I know you don't either.
Do the Lakers have guys that are going to punish the Rockets for playing small ball?
Miami's culture and Jimmy fit really well. I think its hard to not consider that Jimmy likely didn't believe in Thibs as the guy in charge of the organization. Town is likely going to have to find and edge. Russell claimed on a recent podcast Towns is going to have it after everything that's happened the last few months. We will see. It also doesn't hurt that Miami has a depth of talent the Wolves haven't had in at least 15 years.
Bam Adebayo might just be the 2nd most important player on Miami after Jimmy. What a heck of an all-around player he has grown into. Remember when his name along with Jason Richardson was floated in the Jimmy Butler trade? I think I'd prefer that deal to what we ultimately ended up with (although the full story hasn't been written yet).
Sets great screens, makes good passes, has some post game if needed, expanding his range a bit, rebounds, can defend smaller guys in space, and protects the paint. The Heat have done an outstanding job with this kid.
