Ben Simmons

[FNG]

Q, good post, and I agree with your premise that individual efficiency needs to be combined with team efficiency in evaluating a player's overall impact on a team's offense. Being able to spread the floor does open up more opportunities for teammates, and there's no question that DLO and Beasley do a much better job of this than Simmons. But being an elite playmaker also opens up more opportunities for teammates, and there's no question that Simmons is an elite playmaker. Beasley is not a playmaker in any way. DLO can be a creative playmaker at times, but he averages a full 2 1/2 fewer assists per game than Simmons and is primarily a high-usage (and not very efficient) shooter. We think Simmons as being an elite defender, but Philly's offense actually is also more productive when he is on the floor than when he is off, while the Wolves offense was less productive this year when Beasley was on the floor than when he was off (per Cleaning the Glass on/off stats). Like Simmons, DLO also made his team's offense more productive when he was on the floor than off, but his horrible defense more than offset any positive impact his offense might bring.

I also take issue with any claim that DLO is an elite 3-point shooter who is essential for this team to spread the floor. There's no question that he is a high-volume 3-point shooter, but he consistently ranks in the lower half of the league for 3-point accuracy. His 36% career average is below the league average for guards, and surprisingly lower than the 36.4% Jaden McDaniels put up in his rookie season. We all saw improvement in Ant's 3-point shooting also as the season progressed. I am not going to say that the Wolves will be an elite 3-point shooting team if we trade DLO and Beas for Simmons...heck, we aren't now...but I also think KAT, Ant and Jaden are fully capable of spreading the floor with their 3-point shooting.

So we have a chance to trade two 1-way players who are totally ineffective on defense for an elite distributor and defender whose only discernible flaw (outside shooting) is more than compensated by his excellent 2-point shooting efficiency. And I'm not even including Beasley's character issues in my analysis...a lot of us haven't forgotten what he did last summer, and wouldn't be unhappy to see him shipped out of town. It's a tried and true tenet in the NBA that the team who ends up with the best player in a deal wins trades, and there's no question who the best player is of these three...Simmons is simply in a totally different strata than DLO and Beasley,

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

FNG, you keep looking at percentages without looking at other relevant information, like volume and role. Jaden McDaniels isn't taking 3's unless he is open and has his feet completely set. Meanwhile, DLO as a primary ball handler and scorer is taking 3's off the bounce, often with a hand in his face. I can assure you that when an opposing team is doing defensive game planning, they are playing McDaniels a hell of a lot softer on the perimeter than DLO.

By the way, DLO hit 50% of his wide open 3's last season. So did Beasley. You simply can't leave these guys open. So even without them taking a shot, they draw the defense away from the paint and open up things for KAT and Edwards.

After all of this back and forth, I can honestly say I'm on the fence. I completely get that talent trumps quantity and a case can be made that you do whatever it takes to get Simmons short of trading KAT and Edwards. But I struggle believing that this franchise can go find the shooters this squad would desperately need if we had to give up both DLO and Beasley to acquire Simmons.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Simmons is in a great situation with Philly because the other four starters - Green, Embiid, Harris, and Curry - are all somewhere in the range of capable to elite 3-point shooters.

If we traded Beasley and DLO for Simmons, we'd have one truly proven 3-point shooter to put out there with him and that's KAT. Now opposing teams can play soft on multiple guys - not just Simmons. For as great of an all-around player Simmons is, I find this to be problematic given how important outside shooting is to an offense these days.

It's not like Simmons has had all-time elite shooters around him previously... he's only had one season where more than 2 starting teammates shot above the league average.

1. This was the 76ers other starters in 2020 beyond the arc:
- Harris 36.7%
- Richardson - 34.1%
- Horford - 35.0%
- Embiid - 33.1%

The team was still 35 - 22 when Simmons played. 8 - 12 when he didn't play.

In 2019...

- Redick - 39.8%
- Covington - 39.0%
- Butler - 33.8%
- Embiid - 30.0%

The team finished 50 - 29 with Simmons.

In 2018...

- Redick - 42.0%
- Covington - 36.9%
- Saric - 39.3%
- Embiid - 30.8%

Because of Towns' prolific (efficient) three point shooting from a spot that doesn't always give a team that option... the Wolves have more flexibility with non-shooters elsewhere.

2. Sure, the Wolves would need to find shooters. But let's not forget how transient today's NBA is. 19 of the 21 players that appeared on the 2019 Timberwolves weren't on the roster by the end of the 2020 season. Guys come and go. The key is to nab on to a few key foundational pieces that complement each other for as long as you can and fill in around the margins.


----------

Hypothetical lineup:

- Towns - 39.4%
- Edwards - 34.9% (2nd half)
- McDaniels - 36.4%
- Nowell or other - 33%

Is that really all that different than what the 76ers had in 2019 or 2020?

[Wolvesfan21]

Some people I think are not focusing enough on Simmons defense and just looking at his offense. The dude is one of the best defenders in the entire NBA. 1st Team - All Defensive 2020 and 2021.

While both DLO and Bease simply are not good. So there you go.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Some people I think are not focusing enough on Simmons defense and just looking at his offense. The dude is one of the best defenders in the entire NBA. 1st Team - All Defensive 2020 and 2021.

While both DLO and Bease simply are not good. So there you go.

I agree he improves the defense, but you inevitably take one of our other good defenders off the floor by acquiring Simmons (Vanderbilt or Okogie), thus somewhat negating the impact he could have on that end. You can't have two guys on the floor literally unwilling/unable to shoot. Invariably Finch would have to start Juancho at PF and now you have a really soft interior with KAT and Juancho.

[Wolvesfan21]

Some people I think are not focusing enough on Simmons defense and just looking at his offense. The dude is one of the best defenders in the entire NBA. 1st Team - All Defensive 2020 and 2021.

While both DLO and Bease simply are not good. So there you go.

I agree he improves the defense, but you inevitably take one of our other good defenders off the floor by acquiring Simmons (Vanderbilt or Okogie), thus somewhat negating the impact he could have on that end. You can't have two guys on the floor literally unwilling/unable to shoot. Invariably Finch would have to start Juancho at PF and now you have a really soft interior with KAT and Juancho.

Nah,

Rubio (assuming he is here)
Ant
McDaniels
Simmons
KAT

[kekgeek]

Some people I think are not focusing enough on Simmons defense and just looking at his offense. The dude is one of the best defenders in the entire NBA. 1st Team - All Defensive 2020 and 2021.

While both DLO and Bease simply are not good. So there you go.

I agree he improves the defense, but you inevitably take one of our other good defenders off the floor by acquiring Simmons (Vanderbilt or Okogie), thus somewhat negating the impact he could have on that end. You can't have two guys on the floor literally unwilling/unable to shoot. Invariably Finch would have to start Juancho at PF and now you have a really soft interior with KAT and Juancho.

I think we are both in the same boat. Simmons is a talent upgrade over Dlo and Beasley. We would not be mad if the trade would happen. But there is a ton of worry how the rest of the roster would mesh with Simmons. We would have 4 guys who are almost unplayable with Simmons right away in Rubio, Okogie, Culver and Vandy if he is resigned. Ant shot better at the end of the year but no promises that Ant continues to improve. We would legit have 2 guys maybe who could hit a shot off the dribble and that would be Ant and Nowell (Nowell still has massive questions about his game).

We are also talking about adding a guy who has been played out of playoff games because when the game has slowed down they have struggled a lot in the playoffs.

We have no draft picks and really no tradeable assets this summer to acquire shooting of Dlo and Beasley are traded. Also the Wolves would still be up against the lux tax line.

Simmons is also great at D. But does his presence make the Wolves great at D. Simmons did play with 2 elite defenders in Embiid and Thybul. So who knows how the wolves defensive unit would play together.


Wolves are in a werid spot. Kat only has 3 years left it is not like the Wolves will have a ton of time to add shooting around those 2.

I know yesterday a Philly reporter proposed a 3 way. Where:

Wolves get:
Simmons

76ers get:
Beasley
Naz
Lowry (Sign and trade)
Wolves top 10 protected pick

Raptors get:
Rubio
Culver
Wolves top 10 protected pick.

Now I do that trade in a heartbeat.

I will not be mad if the wolves trade Dlo and Beasley because of the talent upgrade but I'll be nervous with the trade working out

[kekgeek]

Some people I think are not focusing enough on Simmons defense and just looking at his offense. The dude is one of the best defenders in the entire NBA. 1st Team - All Defensive 2020 and 2021.

While both DLO and Bease simply are not good. So there you go.

I agree he improves the defense, but you inevitably take one of our other good defenders off the floor by acquiring Simmons (Vanderbilt or Okogie), thus somewhat negating the impact he could have on that end. You can't have two guys on the floor literally unwilling/unable to shoot. Invariably Finch would have to start Juancho at PF and now you have a really soft interior with KAT and Juancho.

Nah,

Rubio (assuming he is here)
Ant
McDaniels
Simmons
KAT

The thing with that is if that is our closing lineup. Anytime Ant has the ball you can just sag off Rubio and Simmons so much to make Ants life hell.

[Wolvesfan21]

Some people I think are not focusing enough on Simmons defense and just looking at his offense. The dude is one of the best defenders in the entire NBA. 1st Team - All Defensive 2020 and 2021.

While both DLO and Bease simply are not good. So there you go.

I agree he improves the defense, but you inevitably take one of our other good defenders off the floor by acquiring Simmons (Vanderbilt or Okogie), thus somewhat negating the impact he could have on that end. You can't have two guys on the floor literally unwilling/unable to shoot. Invariably Finch would have to start Juancho at PF and now you have a really soft interior with KAT and Juancho.

Nah,

Rubio (assuming he is here)
Ant
McDaniels
Simmons
KAT

The thing with that is if that is our closing lineup. Anytime Ant has the ball you can just sag off Rubio and Simmons so much to make Ants life hell.

Starting lineup, closing lineup would depend on who is playing well that game, among other things.

Rubio was much improved later on in the season also, once he got "in shape" or "over Covid" whatever it was that was messing with him.

[Wolvesfan21]

Rubio I believe was closer to 35-36% on 3's in the second half of the season. That is my guess anyways. I didn't look it up nor have a way to do so. I just know he was straight trash, then finished the year solidly and was 30.8% on 3.

I honestly would expect 33-36% from Rubio on 3's. He's trended up in the last 3-4 years. Career 32.5%.

If he is in that 35-36% range, I don't think teams leave him open.