I will be devastated if we fall to 4 in the lottery

[TRKO [enjin:12664595]]

There is more to offense than scoring and Jordan does a outstanding job of setting picks and screens. I'm not sure he is a max player, but he is a big time winning player who will get max money.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Has DJ ever been given the ball and been able to get a bucket on his own with no help? I don't think I've ever seen it and that's why he's not a max guy. 90-100% of his offense comes from foul shooting which he sucks at and being setup by other teammates. 92% of his shot attempts come from within 3 feet of the basket. That's why 71% FG% is not that impressive. His FG% drops to 37% from 3-10 feet. He has a usage rate of 14. Real stars are in the mid to high 20's. His best average was less than 15 PPG when Griffin was out when if he is as good as you make him out to be, they should have used him a lot more offensively to try to make up for missing Blake. There's a reason they didn't. The guy needs to be setup for almost everything he gets and you can't be a max player if you have to rely on others to be effective. Chandler isn't a max player. He is paid well, but he's not a max guy. DJ's not good enough. He's good, but he's not good enough to pay him 15+ million to keep him on his next contract. You have to at least have a semblance of your own offensive game at that point and he has nothing.

It is simply not true that 90-100% of DJ's offence would come from foul shooting and other people setting him up since only 69% of his baskets have been assisted. It would be probably true if you would totally forget baskets from offensive rebounds but you cannot do that because those are real scoring opportunities created by DJ himself. He creates possessions also for others with his offensive rebounding since he has almost 400 offensive rebounds and only 232 put back attempts.

If we only consider offensive end, I will currently rank DJ more valuable than Dwight Howard. We can compare their scoring statistics and see if anyone will agree with that.

DeAndre:
Transition: 1.13 FGA/GM 1.42 PPS
Rollman: 1.25 FGA/GM 1.36 PPS
Post-up: 0.80 FGA/GM 0.74 PPS
Cut: 2.34 FGA/GM 1.43 PPS
Putbacks: 2.83 FGA/GM 1.11 PPS

Dwight:
Transition: 0.71 FGA 1.45 PPS
Rollman: 1.65 FGA 1.35 PPS
Post-up: 7.92 FGA 0.75 PPS
Cut: 2.14 FGA 1.52 PPS
Putbacks: 1.88 FGA 1.13 PPS

Dwight has about same or better efficiency rate in all possession types. Why I still prefer DJ over him in offense? It is simply because you won't need to waste 8 possessions per game to very inefficient post-ups to keep DJ happy. I think it is very important to have some players in your starting five that can score efficiently without any plays to drawn them and DJ is one of the best in that.

He is really big reason why Clippers have had most efficient offense in whole NBA during last two years. I think he is 2nd biggest reason after CP3. Yes, I think that DJ has been even more important than Griffin. They scored this season 16.4 pts per 100 possessions more when DJ was on floor vs when he was off floor that 2nd highest difference for Ortg in Clippers team after CP3.

I still might not think that DJ would be worth of maximum contract but it is mainly because I think his defense is not that good as people think. Opponent FG% at rim with DJ has been .485 when real elite rim protectors like Gobert, Ibaka, Bogut and Hibbert have it around .40 to .43 Also if DJ would be really good defender, you would think that Clippers Drtg would have been typically worse in most the seasons when he is off the floor compared when he is on the floor. But only 2011-12 season it was slightly worse without DJ. Every other season Clippers have had better Drtg without DJ on the floor. I think this cannot be just coincidence, especially since Clippers backup centers, Hawes, Davis, Hollins, Mullens and Kaman have not that good reputation as defenders.

DJ is efficient because he is never asked to do anything hard on offense. It'd be like Korver only shooting open 3's. Of course he's efficient. He never has to do any hard work to get his baskets. He never has to post anyone up. He never has to take anyone off the dribble. He never has to shoot a jumper because his offense is within 3ft of the basket. All he has to do is be able to jump and dunk. What happens as he ages and his jumping ability goes down? He's a ticking time bomb because the second his athleticism dips he's done. He has no basketball skills. He's big, he jumps high and he can palm the ball. Those are his real basketball skills on offense.

What's he going to do here next to Payne and AB who demand little attention? He's playing next to an MVP candidate in that front court with an MVP candidate PG in the PnR. Teams don't care about him because they have bigger worries so he rolls to the basket and goes for boards cleanly because he knows teams are trying to stop the other two first and not himself so he gets better position and better looks because of it. Do people honestly believe he gets the same looks in the same volume here where guys go under screens clogging his roll to the bucket and play off the 3pt line because we don't have shooters? I would think it'd be a nightmare for him here because we offer no spacing for him to operate cleanly like he has now. He'd actually have to fight and bang around for everything here rather than have such an easy road. That's a lot of money to pay someone for defense, rebounding and cleanup work on the offensive end. Towns can do the same thing at a slightly lower level for 10+ million less.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Of course he doesn't have to do anything hard - that's the whole point! His God-given ability to play above the rim and muscle inside allows him to get a ton of "easy" baskets. You can't just plug any old Center in there and expect the same result just because they are playing with Griffin and Paul. Also, kudos to DJ for not trying to be something he's not capable of being.

I wouldn't be in favor of trading our top pick for him either, but a compelling case has been made.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Of course he doesn't have to do anything hard - that's the whole point! His God-given ability to play above the rim and muscle inside allows him to get a ton of "easy" baskets. You can't just plug any old Center in there and expect the same result just because they are playing with Griffin and Paul. Also, kudos to DJ for not trying to be something he's not capable of being.

I wouldn't be in favor of trading our top pick for him either, but a compelling case has been made.

So what's the plan when his God-given gift wanes as Wiggins is hitting his prime? That's why I am saying it's just not the right time. Best case scenario Wiggins is like Anthony Davis and is leading our team in year 3. Then DJ makes sense because you have an emerging Wiggins and DJ under 30. What if Wiggins doesn't become that guy until he's 23? DJ's now over 30 and big guys only age gracefully when they actually have basketball skills beyond athleticism to fall back on. So in that scenario DJ in his prime helps you maybe be a bottom 8 playoff team and you lose picks due to trades being carried out or have low picks to get Wiggins elite help for his prime years now. I'd be perfectly fine with this deal in 3-4 years if we got the next DJ at 26 to play in his prime with Wiggins at 23. It just doesn't make sense to make the move now. That's why Lebron picked Love over Wiggins. Lebron needs to win now, not wait for Wiggins to develop and be a star with him because it's too late in that scenario. We need to do the opposite. We need to develop now and get the pieces like DJ in 2-3 years when we have guys who can win. Making the move now is too early.

If Wiggins is as good as myself and others think he can become we have 2 drafts left of high picks to do this right and that's it. We're talking about a top 4 pick and most likely Towns to make this deal happen. I don't want a guy back with as big of limitations offensively as DJ has when Towns projects to do slightly less defensively and in rebounds but gives you more options on offense. Did the Thunder say Durant showed promise so we should trade our pick that ended up to be Westbrook for a known commodity? It's a risk, but trading for DJ is a cap on the potential we have moving forward. You either take the risk or the cap.

[MikkeMan]

Of course he doesn't have to do anything hard - that's the whole point! His God-given ability to play above the rim and muscle inside allows him to get a ton of "easy" baskets. You can't just plug any old Center in there and expect the same result just because they are playing with Griffin and Paul. Also, kudos to DJ for not trying to be something he's not capable of being.

I wouldn't be in favor of trading our top pick for him either, but a compelling case has been made.

I would trade Wolves pick for Jordan with max contract only if Pek could be included to deal and if we could also receive some other asset. Also I would do this deal only in case of Wolves would have some coach who understands modern NBA offenses.

Last year Wolves used 2nd most possessions (12.6%) for post-ups despite scoring only 0.85 pts per possession on them. That puts them in the middle of the pack in post up efficiency but since post-ups are in generally inefficient offense, it is even worse from efficiency point of view than it sounds.

Most efficient NBA offenses feature quite little post ups, Atlanta had least (5%) post-ups, Dallas was 4th (5,5% despite being most effective team in scoring post-up plays) and Golden State was 6th last (5.9%). Clippers used little more post-up and was 11th last in the list with 7.6%.

But this is pure speculation, since I'm not sure Clippers won't plan to do sign and trade for DJ. He is more important player for them than for almost any other team. Clippers play tons of pick and roll and even thought it is normally CP3 playing it with Griffin, DJ's offensive rebounding and lob threat will give them more space and make their offense much more effective.

Some tidbit is that lineup that features CP3, Jordan and Griffin has outscored their opponent by 17 pts per 100 possessions but lineups that feature CP3 and Griffin but won't have Jordan has been outscored by 10.3 pts per 100 possessions this season.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Of course he doesn't have to do anything hard - that's the whole point! His God-given ability to play above the rim and muscle inside allows him to get a ton of "easy" baskets. You can't just plug any old Center in there and expect the same result just because they are playing with Griffin and Paul. Also, kudos to DJ for not trying to be something he's not capable of being.

I wouldn't be in favor of trading our top pick for him either, but a compelling case has been made.

I would trade Wolves pick for Jordan with max contract only if Pek could be included to deal and if we could also receive some other asset. Also I would do this deal only in case of Wolves would have some coach who understands modern NBA offenses.

Last year Wolves used 2nd most possessions (12.6%) for post-ups despite scoring only 0.85 pts per possession on them. That puts them in the middle of the pack in post up efficiency but since post-ups are in generally inefficient offense, it is even worse from efficiency point of view than it sounds.

Most efficient NBA offenses feature quite little post ups, Atlanta had least (5%) post-ups, Dallas was 4th (5,5% despite being most effective team in scoring post-up plays) and Golden State was 6th last (5.9%). Clippers used little more post-up and was 11th last in the list with 7.6%.

But this is pure speculation, since I'm not sure Clippers won't plan to do sign and trade for DJ. He is more important player for them than for almost any other team. Clippers play tons of pick and roll and even thought it is normally CP3 playing it with Griffin, DJ's offensive rebounding and lob threat will give them more space and make their offense much more effective.

Some tidbit is that lineup that features CP3, Jordan and Griffin has outscored their opponent by 17 pts per 100 possessions but lineups that feature CP3 and Griffin but won't have Jordan has been outscored by 10.3 pts per 100 possessions this season.

Nice work Mikkeman. That would be a pretty good deal, but in the end, I think you point out how valuable DJ is to their team - on offense and defense. I think they try to hold things together. It's so, so hard to find a Center that is both good AND durable.

[MikkeMan]

DJ is efficient because he is never asked to do anything hard on offense. It'd be like Korver only shooting open 3's. Of course he's efficient. He never has to do any hard work to get his baskets. He never has to post anyone up. He never has to take anyone off the dribble. He never has to shoot a jumper because his offense is within 3ft of the basket. All he has to do is be able to jump and dunk. What happens as he ages and his jumping ability goes down? He's a ticking time bomb because the second his athleticism dips he's done. He has no basketball skills. He's big, he jumps high and he can palm the ball. Those are his real basketball skills on offense.

What's he going to do here next to Payne and AB who demand little attention? He's playing next to an MVP candidate in that front court with an MVP candidate PG in the PnR. Teams don't care about him because they have bigger worries so he rolls to the basket and goes for boards cleanly because he knows teams are trying to stop the other two first and not himself so he gets better position and better looks because of it. Do people honestly believe he gets the same looks in the same volume here where guys go under screens clogging his roll to the bucket and play off the 3pt line because we don't have shooters? I would think it'd be a nightmare for him here because we offer no spacing for him to operate cleanly like he has now. He'd actually have to fight and bang around for everything here rather than have such an easy road. That's a lot of money to pay someone for defense, rebounding and cleanup work on the offensive end. Towns can do the same thing at a slightly lower level for 10+ million less.

It seems that you missed my point. Main point was that DJ's presence on the court makes whole teams offense more effective. Just like Korver (but totally different way) his presence on the court creates space for others. DJ's man cannot help when someone is driving to hoop because then Jordan gets lob pass and gets an easy dunk or if driving player doesn't pass the ball, Jordan can still get an offensive board and score on that. You really underestimate the NBA defenses, if you think they will rather let DJ to get easy dunks than CP3 or Griffin shoot mid range jumpers. Of course occasionally some defender will forgot that it would be more important to check DJ under basket than to try challenge Paul's mid range jumper and DJ gets easy points but most of time they will stay with Jordan which makes CP3's and Griffin offense much more effective. If we look just this by numbers. CP3, Griffin and Jordan trio outscored their opponents by 17 pts per 100 possessions but CP3 and Griffin without Jordan were outscored by 10 pts per 100 possessions. That is huge difference.

I'm sure Houston would like that Dwight too would try to score only similar way than DJ. The point of effective offense is to avoid difficult shots since they tend to be low percentage possessions. If Dwight would be happy without his post-up possessions that have really low efficiency, they could run more pick and roll with Harden that could create better shot attempts for Dwight as roll man or spot up treys for their shooters. And if they would for some reason need to play post-up possession (just to make defense to o some adjustments) they would have better options for that. Motiejunas scored this year almost 1 pts per possession from post-ups which is about 30% better efficiency than Dwights .75 pts per possession.

If Wolves would do hypothetical sign and trade for Jordan (Pek would be traded to get salaries to match), I would trade either Bennett or Payne, sign Bjelica since his game would complement nicely DJ. Then I would make remaining PF (Bennett/Payne) to emphasize whole summer on improving his 3-point shot. Both players had promising 3-point percentage and volume in college, so they would have potential to be stretch PF. Then I would run some pick and roll with Lavine/Wiggins/Rubio and DJ. Some with Lavine/Wiggins/Rubio and Bjelica with DJ cutting to basket if his man leaves him alone. Having DJ in defense would also help Wolves transition offense since he would improve our defense and defensive rebounding. Of course he would not be as effective with that Wolves team than with Clippers but his presence would give our wings/guards more space to shoot and make generally our offense more effective.

[MikkeMan]

So what's the plan when his God-given gift wanes as Wiggins is hitting his prime? That's why I am saying it's just not the right time. Best case scenario Wiggins is like Anthony Davis and is leading our team in year 3. Then DJ makes sense because you have an emerging Wiggins and DJ under 30. What if Wiggins doesn't become that guy until he's 23? DJ's now over 30 and big guys only age gracefully when they actually have basketball skills beyond athleticism to fall back on. So in that scenario DJ in his prime helps you maybe be a bottom 8 playoff team and you lose picks due to trades being carried out or have low picks to get Wiggins elite help for his prime years now. I'd be perfectly fine with this deal in 3-4 years if we got the next DJ at 26 to play in his prime with Wiggins at 23. It just doesn't make sense to make the move now. That's why Lebron picked Love over Wiggins. Lebron needs to win now, not wait for Wiggins to develop and be a star with him because it's too late in that scenario. We need to do the opposite. We need to develop now and get the pieces like DJ in 2-3 years when we have guys who can win. Making the move now is too early.

If Wiggins is as good as myself and others think he can become we have 2 drafts left of high picks to do this right and that's it. We're talking about a top 4 pick and most likely Towns to make this deal happen. I don't want a guy back with as big of limitations offensively as DJ has when Towns projects to do slightly less defensively and in rebounds but gives you more options on offense. Did the Thunder say Durant showed promise so we should trade our pick that ended up to be Westbrook for a known commodity? It's a risk, but trading for DJ is a cap on the potential we have moving forward. You either take the risk or the cap.

Tyson Chandler has quite similar game than DJ. He is currently 32 and just had his best year at least offensively. He has also had quite a lot injuries. So I think we can expect that Jordan will be pretty effective at least next 6 years.

You gave Oklahoma as an example about keeping their picks to build with young talent. What about Portland? Do you think that they would be currently better if they would have traded Oden for some known commodity?

[AbeVigodaLive]

Abe, I think we need to look both at stats and at the players' testimonials to really assess the impact KG had on the Nets bigs. Plumlee credits KG for his improved play, and his numbers with and without him back up his assertion. Further, Jarret Jack talks about how KG was constantly coaching Plumlee when they were on the court together (knowing KG's style, "coaching" may have bordered on "harassing" at times) And I saw the same thing in the Portland and Washington games I went to this season. KG never stops coaching when he is on the court, both on offense and defense, and it makes the other 4 players on the court with him better. That has to have something to do with why we outscored our opponents in the 5 games KG played in this year. Big deal, some might say. But a 16-win team outscoring its opponent in a certain subset of its games is a big deal. and needs to be analyzed.

One of the most frustrating parts of the season for most of us was watching our young guys (AB, Zach, Payne, Bazz, Dieng) acting like young guys...especially on defense. KG knows where they need to be on defense and isn't shy about telling them. How can that be a bad thing? KG's presence on the court is exactly what Plumlee needed, and it's exactly what this young team needs.

Nobody has ever claimed it's a bad thing.

But there are other factors. How much will Garnett cost? How much will he play? When he's not playing, does he stick around the team... or rest in California?

As for Plumlee... I'm sure Garnett helped him when he was there. But it's not like the guy was a puppet who only did what Garnett told him to do. The guy had to have SOME instincts. He had to be able to retain SOMETHING.

When Plumlee was rolling, Lopez was on the bench. When those roles reversed, Plumlee played less and produced less. Both guys seemed to thrive when they were given heavier minutes. That seems relevant and can be backed up a bit. Talking about Garnett's impact is a bit more intangible or anecdotal or esoteric.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Abe, I think we need to look both at stats and at the players' testimonials to really assess the impact KG had on the Nets bigs. Plumlee credits KG for his improved play, and his numbers with and without him back up his assertion. Further, Jarret Jack talks about how KG was constantly coaching Plumlee when they were on the court together (knowing KG's style, "coaching" may have bordered on "harassing" at times) And I saw the same thing in the Portland and Washington games I went to this season. KG never stops coaching when he is on the court, both on offense and defense, and it makes the other 4 players on the court with him better. That has to have something to do with why we outscored our opponents in the 5 games KG played in this year. Big deal, some might say. But a 16-win team outscoring its opponent in a certain subset of its games is a big deal. and needs to be analyzed.

One of the most frustrating parts of the season for most of us was watching our young guys (AB, Zach, Payne, Bazz, Dieng) acting like young guys...especially on defense. KG knows where they need to be on defense and isn't shy about telling them. How can that be a bad thing? KG's presence on the court is exactly what Plumlee needed, and it's exactly what this young team needs.

Nobody has ever claimed it's a bad thing.

But there are other factors. How much will Garnett cost? How much will he play? When he's not playing, does he stick around the team... or rest in California?

As for Plumlee... I'm sure Garnett helped him when he was there. But it's not like the guy was a puppet who only did what Garnett told him to do. The guy had to have SOME instincts. He had to be able to retain SOMETHING.

When Plumlee was rolling, Lopez was on the bench. When those roles reversed, Plumlee played less and produced less. Both guys seemed to thrive when they were given heavier minutes. That seems relevant and can be backed up a bit. Talking about Garnett's impact is a bit more intangible or anecdotal or esoteric.

Right, if KG were free and didn't occupy a roster spot, hell yeah, bring him on board! If he costs us $5M for playing 25% of our PF minutes, I'm going to puke. At $2.5M I'll feel a little queezy. For less than $2M...I can probably live with that. We'll see how much Flip ends up shelling out....

Again, the alternative was to hire him this offseason as an assistant coach or player development consultant and saved the cap space and roster spot while still benefiting from whatever knowledge he can impart on the youngsters.