Minnesota Sports Forum

Acutally, Pork, most of the people pointing out the negatives on Wiggins (and there have/are negatives) are the same people who are quick to point out Rubio's weaknesses as well.

I don't have a problem with pointing out concerns about players, even though I fall on the opTIMistic side most of the time...

As Q and others have pointed out, Wiggins' numbers tell a troubling tale so far. But I don't think anyone on this board is ready to write him off as a potential all-star or even superstar. Unfortunately, there are enough troubling signs -- his passivity, terrible ball-handling and underwhelming stats -- that to plant some serious seeds of doubt.

Wiggins vs Lebron

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12071123/andrew-wiggins-vs-2003-lebron-james

2014 Wiggins vs. 2003 LeBron: Athleticism and motor

When evaluating how athletic a player is, it is wise to also consider the player's motor. A lazy but gifted athlete will often be outdone in the "athlete" category by a less athletic player who simply tries harder. But toughness and relentlessness are talents that can be developed in some cases, which is where we begin with Wiggins.

Purely as a physical specimen -- combining his speed, quickness, jumping and overall agility -- Wiggins might indeed be slightly more athletic than LeBron was in his first season. This may sound absurd when considering what a freak athlete LeBron was at 18 years old (and about 45-50 pounds heavier than Wiggins), but that's just how gifted Wiggins is.

However, and this is the point, Wiggins' athleticism doesn't always show on the court. That's because his motor is just mild most of the time, so his supreme athletic gifts are not registering as often as we saw from LeBron when he was a rookie playing with a hot motor at all times. Wiggins appears to be faster than 2003 LeBron, but only when he doesn't have the ball or is running at his top speed.

Wiggins may be a better pure athlete than LeBron, but he is not using those gifts as well as LeBron did, with or without the ball. It's something that Wiggins can improve on, and he is already making progress.

Advantage: 2003 LeBron

2014 Wiggins vs. 2003 LeBron: Shooting

LeBron didn't make better than 36.2 percent of his 3s until the 2011-12 season, and he has never made 80 percent of his free throws. He simply was not a consistent shooter throughout his teens and early/mid-20s, often changing form from shot to shot and rarely staying balanced.

Like most guys who can drive by just about any defender (or defenders), LeBron did not think like a shooter, resulting in his tepid percentages. But great defenses, and some wear and tear, helped him to focus on his form and shot selection over the past few years, and he's seen very good results.

Wiggins, as mentioned in previous rookie reports, looks beautiful shooting the ball. He has basically the same form on almost every shot, putting good arc on the ball and taking long shots that are typically, if not almost always, uncontested.

At the free throw line, Wiggins is shooting 70 percent, which is solid for a rookie. Free throws tend to be more about concentration than anything else, an area where Wiggins needs to improve, just as every other teenager does. In time, his form projects him to be an 80-plus percent shooter from the line. And no one would be surprised if he shot 38 percent from 3 in the near future.

Advantage: 2014 Wiggins

2014 Wiggins vs. 2003 LeBron: Scoring

LeBron hit the NBA running, scoring 25 points in his first game and averaging 21 for the season, thanks to his incredible combination of athleticism, power and ballhandling wizardry.

Most young players at LeBron's size get slower when they have to dribble (see Wiggins), but the best ball handlers use the dribble to make them even harder to guard. Change of speed, change of direction, misdirection -- all are used as tools in their effort to beat a defender. LeBron earned 7.1 free throws per 48 minutes as a rookie thanks in large part to those talents and skills.

Wiggins is almost the complete opposite. His lack of a dribble attack, in fact, takes away most of his athletic skills on the perimeter. However, this has served him well with his shooting because he has had to focus on that part of his game in order to make an impact on offense.

His lack of dribbling skills has also helped him in another key area: Wiggins has an advanced post game for a small forward who is 19. He looks to post often, tries to attack the middle much of the time (as he should) and has a few countermoves when the defense stiffens toward his middle probes. He can make the quick baseline spin or just size up a smaller defender and shoot over him.

Wiggins isn't as involved in the transition game as LeBron was (LeBron was often a primary ball handler), but once Ricky Rubio returns for the Wolves that should get better. Still, Wiggins' post work has helped him earn 6.4 free throws per 48 minutes, which is impressive considering how much less he has the ball compared to LeBron. LeBron took 22.9 shots per 48 minutes as a rookie, Wiggins is at 18 shots.

It's not likely that Wiggins will end up leading the league in scoring during his career, as it will take him a long time to learn how to be effective using his dribble to create consistent scoring chances, which is necessary for a perimeter player to be a dominant scorer. But can he score 25 points per night efficiently in the seasons ahead? Absolutely.

Advantage: 2003 LeBron

2014 Wiggins vs. 2003 LeBron: Defense




In this area, the one season Wiggins spent at Kansas has given him a huge advantage over LeBron, who didn't go to college.

Wiggins spent about 50 hours on defensive drills in his one college season, working on footwork and technique in dealing with screens and actions, terminology and systems, etc. LeBron, during his first season, survived on pure athletic talent, physical advantages and a great motor and mindset. But he used poor technique on and off the ball frequently as a rookie.

Over time, of course, LeBron became the best wing defender in the game (evidence against the argument that a young player needs to go to college to learn basketball fundamentals). Wiggins has that exact kind of potential.

In Minnesota, Flip Saunders has Wiggins defend primary scorers throughout every game. That is helping him gain valuable experience, which will quicken his ascent.

Advantage: 2014 Wiggins

2014 Wiggins vs. 2003 LeBron: Passing and feel

If there is one area where these two differ the most, it's here. Wiggins moves within the flow of the game fine. Sure, he can get lost at times, but that is as much due to his lack of primary ballhandling skills as anything; if the main guard does not get him the ball when he is open, Wiggins can't be blamed.

He does not stand out, though, when it comes to that obvious "he just has it" quality of elite players who always seem to be in the right place, making the special pass or brilliant-thinking play, like Bird, Magic, Chris Paul, Steve Nash, etc.

LeBron, of course, is in that club, too, having had his passing compared to Magic since he was a rookie. LeBron is one of the most gifted passers to ever play the game, and he is also one of the smartest. His basketball IQ and feel for the game are better than any single player playing today.

Projecting Wiggins to be this kind of talent in this category is not possible. His limited ball skills greatly inhibit the impact he can make with his passing. Although his basketball IQ can and should improve greatly, as will his passing, he likely won't be at LeBron's level ever in this category.

Advantage: 2003 LeBron

Conclusion

Though these two players have been mentioned together in scouting reports for a few years now, thanks to the kind of size and athletic talents Wiggins showed in his mid-teen years, the first two months of this NBA season do not suggest that he will be as good as LeBron has been during his career, or was as a rookie. That's no harsh knock, as it is entirely possible that LeBron will go down as a top-10 or top-five player of all time, just as he was an incredibly special player his first season.

Wiggins' lack of ball skills and overall feel, and perhaps a motor that just doesn't run hot often enough, lowers his ceiling. (His floor as a player is the current version of Harrison Barnes -- a starter on the league's best team.) If Wiggins begins to play more ambitiously night after night, and then trains in the offseason as if he wants to be the best player to ever play -- as Kobe has done for nearly two decades -- the Timberwolves forward can be a great team's best player on offense and defense for many seasons. As Paul George has been for a few seasons in Indiana.

Wiggins can be better than Kawhi Leonard, the reigning Finals MVP, or another Finals MVP, Paul Pierce. But the key is Wiggins can be, not necessarily will be. He needs help from his franchise and coaches, and from teammates and good fortune, to be at the level of those guys, much less be better.

Wiggins doesn't have a chance to be a top-five player of all time, but he can be a top-five player in the NBA for a number of years. And that should make everybody happy.

Even thought that it seems that in the end everyone agreed that two months of play is still too early to evaluate how Wiggins will perform in future, I did dig some stats about first couple of months of current and past star wing players. This is mainly just for fun.:)

I have generally included only players that have got more than 20 minutes per game during first two months with the exception of Paul George. (I included him mainly because so many thought that he is good comparison for Wiggins)

Here are Wiggins' stats scaled for 36 minutes:
15.1 pts, 4.5 trb, 1.6 ast, 1.2 stl, 0.6 blk 2.3 tov 47.8 TS% and 21.7 USG

Best 19 year old wing rookie players in comparison: (all stats scaled for 36 minutes)

Lebron: 18.1 pts, 5.4 trb, 5.4 ast, 1.4 stl, 0.6 blk 3.5 tov 50.1 TS% and 27.5 USG
Durant: 21.5 pts, 4.6 trb, 2.3 ast, 1.2 stl, 1.3 blk 3.4 tov 51.1 TS% and 29.5 USG
Melo: 18.9 pts, 6.4 trb, 2.2 ast, 1.2 stl, 0.9 blk 2.8 tov 48.4 TS% and 26.9 USG

It's kind of surprise that these guy's didn't have that much higher TS% in the beginning of their career. Also it seems that Lebron and Durant were not that good rebounders during first 2 months. Melo and Durant were not much better passers than Drew. All these guys had much higher usage rate than Wiggins which might at least partially explain why their TS% was not so much better.

Some notable 19 year old 2nd year wings that were still coming from bench: (I took their 2nd year because they came to NBA directly from high school one year younger than Wiggins)
Kobe: 24.1 pts, 4.4 trb, 3.1 ast, 1.6 stl, 0.6 blk 2.4 tov 53.9 TS% and 30.6 USG
McGrady: 14.5 pts, 9.0 trb, 3.7 ast, 1.7 stl, 2.1 blk 2.5 tov 48.8 TS% and 21.5 USG

McGrady and Kobe were quite opposite in their 2nd year. McGrady was not much scorer but all other of his stats were terrific. Kobe was terrific scorer already at the age of 19 but otherwise his stat line was not that much better than Wiggins has.

Some other young (19 or 20 year old) rookie wings that were starting right away:
Deng: 16.1 pts, 6.4 trb, 3.0 ast, 1.0 stl, 0.5 blk 2.4 tov 47.8 TS% and 24.2 USG
Artest: 13.8 pts, 5.6 trb, 3.5 ast, 1.8 stl, 0.4 blk 2.5 tov 46.2 TS% and 21.7 USG
Joe Johnson: 11.5 pts, 5.4 trb, 3.0 ast, 1.5 stl, 0.3 blk 0.9 tov 51.1 TS% and 15.4 USG
DeRozan: 13.6 pts, 5.3 trb, 1.3 ast, 1.1 stl, 0.8 blk 2.1 tov 52.1 TS% and 18.4 USG

These wings struggled to score although Deng was still better than Wiggins. Deng, Artest and JJ had quite well rounded game as a rookie but DeRozan's handle was even worse compared to Wiggins. Unfortunately Deng didn't improve much after his rookie year.

Some other young (19 or 20 year old) rookie wings that were coming mainly from bench first couple months:
Gay: 13.4 pts, 6.1 trb, 1.1 ast, 1.5 stl, 1.2 blk 2.4 tov 44.6 TS% and 22.9 USG
George: 15.5 pts, 6.2 trb, 1.9 ast, 1.7 stl, 0.7 blk 2.4 tov 56.2 TS% and 18.8 USG
Harden: 15.7 pts, 5.4 trb, 3.9 ast, 1.7 stl, 0.5 blk 2.2 tov 52.2 TS% and 21.7 USG

Gay and George didn't seem to have better handle than Wiggins. George was scoring more effectively but he might have benefit by playing in better team. George's stats contain all pre-all star games since he was injured in so many games during first 2 months. Harden had a terrific handle and court vision right from the beginning of his career.

Some older rookie wings (21 or 22 years old):

Pippen: 14.8 pts, 5.7 trb, 3.8 ast, 2.1 stl, 1.1 blk 3.1 tov 48.4 TS% and 22 USG
Caron Butler: 12.9 pts, 5.7 trb, 2.4 ast, 1.4 stl, 0.3 blk 2.4 tov 48.3 TS% and 20.9 USG
Grant Hill: 18.1 pts, 4.8 trb, 4.2 ast, 1.9 stl, 1.0 blk 2.4 tov 55.0 TS% and 23.5 USG
Glen Robinson: 20.1 pts, 6.2 trb, 2.3 ast, 1.5 stl, 0.2 blk 4.0 tov 49.6 TS% and 29.7 USG
Wade: 16.0 pts, 4.1 trb, 4.4 ast, 1.3 stl, 0.7 blk 2.2 tov 50.5 TS% and 24.7 USG
Carter: 17.5 pts, 5.9 trb, 2.4 ast, 1.1 stl, 1.6 blk 2.1 tov 52.3 TS% and 23.8 USG
Pierce: 16.6 pts, 6.8 trb, 2.3 ast, 2.0 stl, 1.2 blk 2.5 tov 52.6 TS% and 22.5 USG

It's also surprise for me that Hill and Pippen were not that good rebounders in beginning. Hopefully Wiggins can improve similarly later. Both of those players had terrific other defensive stats right away. Big Dog was almost same player as a rookie than later and Carter & Pierce were filling stat sheet right away. Both players improved as passers quite much later.

Mikkeman wrote:Even thought that it seems that in the end everyone agreed that two months of play is still too early to evaluate how Wiggins will perform in future, I did dig some stats about first couple of months of current and past star wing players. This is mainly just for fun.:)

I have generally included only players that have got more than 20 minutes per game during first two months with the exception of Paul George. (I included him mainly because so many thought that he is good comparison for Wiggins)

Here are Wiggins' stats scaled for 36 minutes:
15.1 pts, 4.5 trb, 1.6 ast, 1.2 stl, 0.6 blk 2.3 tov 47.8 TS% and 21.7 USG

Best 19 year old wing rookie players in comparison: (all stats scaled for 36 minutes)

Lebron: 18.1 pts, 5.4 trb, 5.4 ast, 1.4 stl, 0.6 blk 3.5 tov 50.1 TS% and 27.5 USG
Durant: 21.5 pts, 4.6 trb, 2.3 ast, 1.2 stl, 1.3 blk 3.4 tov 51.1 TS% and 29.5 USG
Melo: 18.9 pts, 6.4 trb, 2.2 ast, 1.2 stl, 0.9 blk 2.8 tov 48.4 TS% and 26.9 USG

It's kind of surprise that these guy's didn't have that much higher TS% in the beginning of their career. Also it seems that Lebron and Durant were not that good rebounders during first 2 months. Melo and Durant were not much better passers than Drew. All these guys had much higher usage rate than Wiggins which might at least partially explain why their TS% was not so much better.

Some notable 19 year old 2nd year wings that were still coming from bench: (I took their 2nd year because they came to NBA directly from high school one year younger than Wiggins)
Kobe: 24.1 pts, 4.4 trb, 3.1 ast, 1.6 stl, 0.6 blk 2.4 tov 53.9 TS% and 30.6 USG
McGrady: 14.5 pts, 9.0 trb, 3.7 ast, 1.7 stl, 2.1 blk 2.5 tov 48.8 TS% and 21.5 USG

McGrady and Kobe were quite opposite in their 2nd year. McGrady was not much scorer but all other of his stats were terrific. Kobe was terrific scorer already at the age of 19 but otherwise his stat line was not that much better than Wiggins has.

Some other young (19 or 20 year old) rookie wings that were starting right away:
Deng: 16.1 pts, 6.4 trb, 3.0 ast, 1.0 stl, 0.5 blk 2.4 tov 47.8 TS% and 24.2 USG
Artest: 13.8 pts, 5.6 trb, 3.5 ast, 1.8 stl, 0.4 blk 2.5 tov 46.2 TS% and 21.7 USG
Joe Johnson: 11.5 pts, 5.4 trb, 3.0 ast, 1.5 stl, 0.3 blk 0.9 tov 51.1 TS% and 15.4 USG
DeRozan: 13.6 pts, 5.3 trb, 1.3 ast, 1.1 stl, 0.8 blk 2.1 tov 52.1 TS% and 18.4 USG

These wings struggled to score although Deng was still better than Wiggins. Deng, Artest and JJ had quite well rounded game as a rookie but DeRozan's handle was even worse compared to Wiggins. Unfortunately Deng didn't improve much after his rookie year.

Some other young (19 or 20 year old) rookie wings that were coming mainly from bench first couple months:
Gay: 13.4 pts, 6.1 trb, 1.1 ast, 1.5 stl, 1.2 blk 2.4 tov 44.6 TS% and 22.9 USG
George: 15.5 pts, 6.2 trb, 1.9 ast, 1.7 stl, 0.7 blk 2.4 tov 56.2 TS% and 18.8 USG
Harden: 15.7 pts, 5.4 trb, 3.9 ast, 1.7 stl, 0.5 blk 2.2 tov 52.2 TS% and 21.7 USG

Gay and George didn't seem to have better handle than Wiggins. George was scoring more effectively but he might have benefit by playing in better team. George's stats contain all pre-all star games since he was injured in so many games during first 2 months. Harden had a terrific handle and court vision right from the beginning of his career.

Some older rookie wings (21 or 22 years old):

Pippen: 14.8 pts, 5.7 trb, 3.8 ast, 2.1 stl, 1.1 blk 3.1 tov 48.4 TS% and 22 USG
Caron Butler: 12.9 pts, 5.7 trb, 2.4 ast, 1.4 stl, 0.3 blk 2.4 tov 48.3 TS% and 20.9 USG
Grant Hill: 18.1 pts, 4.8 trb, 4.2 ast, 1.9 stl, 1.0 blk 2.4 tov 55.0 TS% and 23.5 USG
Glen Robinson: 20.1 pts, 6.2 trb, 2.3 ast, 1.5 stl, 0.2 blk 4.0 tov 49.6 TS% and 29.7 USG
Wade: 16.0 pts, 4.1 trb, 4.4 ast, 1.3 stl, 0.7 blk 2.2 tov 50.5 TS% and 24.7 USG
Carter: 17.5 pts, 5.9 trb, 2.4 ast, 1.1 stl, 1.6 blk 2.1 tov 52.3 TS% and 23.8 USG
Pierce: 16.6 pts, 6.8 trb, 2.3 ast, 2.0 stl, 1.2 blk 2.5 tov 52.6 TS% and 22.5 USG

It's also surprise for me that Hill and Pippen were not that good rebounders in beginning. Hopefully Wiggins can improve similarly later. Both of those players had terrific other defensive stats right away. Big Dog was almost same player as a rookie than later and Carter & Pierce were filling stat sheet right away. Both players improved as passers quite much later.

How dare you not be disappointed in Wiggins. This is some quality work btw. I will call Flip to get you on the staff.