longstrangetrip wrote:There was a good discussion on KFAN today on this topic between Barreiro and Jon K. They agreed with the consensus here that it would be foolish to move Ricky before we are certain Dunn can handle the job. They both thought the ideal situation for Dunn was to spend at least this year backing up Ricky (and they agreed there is no guarantee Dunn will even be an adequate backup this year).
When Dan asked Jon if Thibs was really making Rubio available for a deal last week, Jon thought he was...for the right deal. He said he wasn't certain that Thibs was really sold on Ricky at PG. But then he said something that I wasn't aware of. He said that when Flip inherited Ricky as his PG, privately he was revealing that he wasnt sure Ricky was the right guy for the team. But after he learned more about Ricky's intensity, work ethic and effectiveness, he became sold on him. Jon K said he wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happened with Thibs after he has the chance to coach him.
Yeah, I just listened to the most recent Jon K/Souhan podcast and it was very similar. Even Souhan, who took a lot of flak from fans like me about the article he wrote, agreed that Ricky should not be traded for at least this season so as to allow Dunn to come into his own gradually and see what we've got. Neither believed the team could make the playoffs with a rookie PG starting for us.
Jon K. also shared the Flip/Rubio story on the podcast. I would think Thibs is a keen enough observer and enough of a b-ball junkie to know and understand this about Rubio, which makes it all the more baffling that he'd be making Rubio available in a trade even before we had Dunn fall in our laps.
longstrangetrip wrote:There was a good discussion on KFAN today on this topic between Barreiro and Jon K. They agreed with the consensus here that it would be foolish to move Ricky before we are certain Dunn can handle the job. They both thought the ideal situation for Dunn was to spend at least this year backing up Ricky (and they agreed there is no guarantee Dunn will even be an adequate backup this year).
When Dan asked Jon if Thibs was really making Rubio available for a deal last week, Jon thought he was...for the right deal. He said he wasn't certain that Thibs was really sold on Ricky at PG. But then he said something that I wasn't aware of. He said that when Flip inherited Ricky as his PG, privately he was revealing that he wasnt sure Ricky was the right guy for the team. But after he learned more about Ricky's intensity, work ethic and effectiveness, he became sold on him. Jon K said he wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happened with Thibs after he has the chance to coach him.
Yeah, I just listened to the most recent Jon K/Souhan podcast and it was very similar. Even Souhan, who took a lot of flak from fans like me about the article he wrote, agreed that Ricky should not be traded for at least this season so as to allow Dunn to come into his own gradually and see what we've got. Neither believed the team could make the playoffs with a rookie PG starting for us.
Jon K. also shared the Flip/Rubio story on the podcast. I would think Thibs is a keen enough observer and enough of a b-ball junkie to know and understand this about Rubio, which makes it all the more baffling that he'd be making Rubio available in a trade even before we had Dunn fall in our laps.
I'll listen to the latest podcast after these comments.
The key here is what LST said Rubio was available "for the right price" what was the price? Do they have a couple vet PFs they think they could get in FA that would be good enough till Dunn is ready? It doesn't sound like Thibs was just going to give the guy away like it was sorta put out there a few days ago. Like I have said a couple times I wouldn't be shocked if there were teams called to see if Rubio was available. There are teams that need PGs and if they could acquire Rubio for not much they would likely do the deal in a heartbeat. Notice Layden and Thibs both mentioned how hard it was to find good PGs when they talked about getting Dunn. It would seem odd then they would turn around and just give up a legit starting PG for peanuts does it? It doesn't to me.
It's amusing at this point that people can't seem to just assume Dunn was just the best player available and they picked him which makes sense. This team does need shooting but having a possible upgrade at PG especially since the starter we have here has had a problem staying on the floor.
Monster -- Good analysis. I'm convinced Thibs and Scott took Dunn as what they considered the best player available. That's what the good front office execs generally do when drafting high lottery picks. We don't need to look further than what Thibs has said. In his interview with Dan B last week after the draft, Thibs said that a 29-win team like the Wolves needs to add talent. He said he likes Dunn and he also likes what Ricky brings. Both are tenacious, intense, defensive-minded, unselfish players -- right up Thibs' alley.
As for making Ricky available, I agree that the key phrase is "for the right price." I suspect he was willing to give up Ricky for Butler, but I'm not sure he was willing to include Dunn. But even if he was willing to give up both, chalk that up to Thibs' unconditional love for Butler. Add the fact that Butler can handle a lot of the ball-handling and who knows what Thibs might have had in mind. It would have been foolish for his to assume he could sign Conley. Perhaps he planned to sign Jeremy Lin as a FA after trading Ricky and Dunn for Butler. Then again, perhaps Thibs never offered Ricky in any sort of package for Butler. Perhaps Thibs simply let teams know that, unlike KAT, Wiggins and LaVine, Ricky was available.
I still have to believe that Thibs would not have traded Ricky without a high quality PG in return. He has to be smarter than that. Please tell me he's smarter than that!! :)
A lot of conjecture from me and others here, because we just don't know if Ricky was really made available or not. I agree with Lip that Thibs likes Butler so much, that he may have included Ricky in a deal for him. I like Butler too, but not enough to give Rubio up when we have no suitable replacement. If that deal was close to happening and Thibs eventually turned it down, kudos to him for correctly making his first big decision.
lipoli390 wrote:Monster -- Good analysis. I'm convinced Thibs and Scott took Dunn as what they considered the best player available. That's what the good front office execs generally do when drafting high lottery picks. We don't need to look further than what Thibs has said. In his interview with Dan B last week after the draft, Thibs said that a 29-win team like the Wolves needs to add talent. He said he likes Dunn and he also likes what Ricky brings. Both are tenacious, intense, defensive-minded, unselfish players -- right up Thibs' alley.
As for making Ricky available, I agree that the key phrase is "for the right price." I suspect he was willing to give up Ricky for Butler, but I'm not sure he was willing to include Dunn. But even if he was willing to give up both, chalk that up to Thibs' unconditional love for Butler. Add the fact that Butler can handle a lot of the ball-handling and who knows what Thibs might have had in mind. It would have been foolish for his to assume he could sign Conley. Perhaps he planned to sign Jeremy Lin as a FA after trading Ricky and Dunn for Butler. Then again, perhaps Thibs never offered Ricky in any sort of package for Butler. Perhaps Thibs simply let teams know that, unlike KAT, Wiggins and LaVine, Ricky was available.
I still have to believe that Thibs would not have traded Ricky without a high quality PG in return. He has to be smarter than that. Please tell me he's smarter than that!! :)
About bolded part. I watched couple of late season games from Bulls and most of time it looked like Butler was taking care of point guard duties and Rose was playing more like shooting guard at least in half court offense. Similar to roles of Harden and Beverley in Houston. If you check Butler's post all star break stats, he averaged 6.1 assists with less than two turnovers per game. Those numbers would have been good even for full time point guard.
Mr. Brightside wrote:I was initially concerned by Dunn's low assist:turnover ratio. However, in looking at many of the league's top point guards' college stats, I found it difficult to find any ratios above 2.
Curry, Westbrook, Wall, Rose, Lowry, Lillard, etc. This has lessened my concern a great deal.
Most of those guys have been either freshmen (Westbrook, Wall, Rose) or main scorers of really small school (Curry, Lillard). Dunn is senior and he isn't nearly same level scorer than Curry or Lillard were. So I think those were not that good comparisons. In addition it seems that most of the guys, you listed have had pretty bad assists/TO ratio also in NBA. Lowry has been sole exception in that group. All others have almost never achieved even 2.5 assists/TO ratio in NBA.
So are you saying you wouldn't take any of the point guards (probably not Rose) over Rubio right now?
That was my point with the assists/TO ratio argument that is being used against Dunn.
I'm saying that it is pretty far fetched to expect that Dunn would be ever as good in offense than anyone whom you listed are (or was in case of Rose). I think that Rose, Westbrook and Wall had a bad assists to turnover rate in college mainly because they were freshmen playing point guard position. Even tough Lowry was drafted as sophmore, he also was just 19 years old and not yet as polished as Dunn should be. Lillard and Curry were mainly scorers for their respective teams which typically reduces assists/TO rate. I think that Dunn's bad assists/TO rate should be real concern since he is senior and he hasn't been able to improve that much during college. Especially since it looks like even those guys that you listed haven't improved that much their assists/TO rate in NBA.
So my point is that Dunn's low assists/TO rate will be a problem in NBA unless he develops to similar level scoring ability than the guys you listed, which is pretty unrealistic. If we compare him to those guys at same age 22 than Dunn is as rookie, Rose was already NBA MVP, Westbrook all star and Wall averaged 20.4 pts and 8.4 assists that season and has been all star every season after that. Older rookies like Curry and Lillard were not as good at same age but since both of those guys are superior shooters compared to Dunn, I cannot expect that Dunn would be even remotely as good as they were at age 22.
Lowry at same age is much better comparison. He averaged at age 22 7.6 pts, 3.6 assists and 1 steal per game in 22 minutes. Another player that could be pretty good comparison to Dunn is Elfrid Payton whom averaged 8.9 pts, 65 assits in 30 minutes as rookie. Those would be OK numbers for Dunn as a rookie but he wouldn't be yet even close that good that he should be expected to be able to replace Rubio as our starting PG.
lipoli390 wrote:Monster -- Good analysis. I'm convinced Thibs and Scott took Dunn as what they considered the best player available. That's what the good front office execs generally do when drafting high lottery picks. We don't need to look further than what Thibs has said. In his interview with Dan B last week after the draft, Thibs said that a 29-win team like the Wolves needs to add talent. He said he likes Dunn and he also likes what Ricky brings. Both are tenacious, intense, defensive-minded, unselfish players -- right up Thibs' alley.
As for making Ricky available, I agree that the key phrase is "for the right price." I suspect he was willing to give up Ricky for Butler, but I'm not sure he was willing to include Dunn. But even if he was willing to give up both, chalk that up to Thibs' unconditional love for Butler. Add the fact that Butler can handle a lot of the ball-handling and who knows what Thibs might have had in mind. It would have been foolish for his to assume he could sign Conley. Perhaps he planned to sign Jeremy Lin as a FA after trading Ricky and Dunn for Butler. Then again, perhaps Thibs never offered Ricky in any sort of package for Butler. Perhaps Thibs simply let teams know that, unlike KAT, Wiggins and LaVine, Ricky was available.
I still have to believe that Thibs would not have traded Ricky without a high quality PG in return. He has to be smarter than that. Please tell me he's smarter than that!! :)
About bolded part. I watched couple of late season games from Bulls and most of time it looked like Butler was taking care of point guard duties and Rose was playing more like shooting guard at least in half court offense. Similar to roles of Harden and Beverley in Houston. If you check Butler's post all star break stats, he averaged 6.1 assists with less than two turnovers per game. Those numbers would have been good even for full time point guard.
If I was the Bulls I would be seeing how much it would cost to sign Brandon Jennings as a solid starting PG in more of a scoring role next to Butler. The Wolves could have done the same thing if they needed a vet PG. I'm not a fan of Jennings game overall but I think he is a legit starter when healthy and on the right team I think he can be pretty useful.
I know some people are bored with the Rubio/Dunn discussion, but I've enjoyed it...several different takes on it. One board regular we haven't heard from since right before we picked Dunn on draft night is Camden. We know he was a Jamal Murray proponent, and posted that he would only support drafting Dunn if Murray was off the board...which of course he wasn't.
Cam, your thoughts on how the Dunn pick is going to work out?
Interesting tweet from Ricky. Confirms my understanding that any talk about trading Ricky has ended. And it further confirms my sense that Thibs was not "shopping" Ricky as had been reported although he may have been tempted by or even offered a Butler/Rick swap. We'll never know for sure what Thibs really offered or turned down.
