So What's Your Plan? The Offseason Roster Construction Thread

[TheFuture]

Having a bit of a revelation here (maybe)

My current position is that the team needs to prioritize Ant and Jaden and balancing the roster around their strengths. Naz fits that picture better than Julius, ergo keep Naz deal Julius (over simplified i know, but that's the path I see)

Now I come this conclusion based on the fact that Julius really crowds out Jaden from moving in the direction he needs to go (less poa defense/ more offense flowing through him).

But tbh a starting line up with Rudy/Jaden/Naz/DDV/Ant is a pretty gamble on upside. I'm not opposed, but betting on more proven play maker in Randle is certainly tempting given the extremely positive returns during the back end of the season.

But now we're back to the Jaden problem that Julius creates and we still haven't solved the issue of giving Ant a better backcourt partner.

So here's the revelation- what can you trade Jaden for? Can he beget a positive enough return, particularly I regards to getting a blue chip PG? Who would that player be?

Fox or White wouldn't be worth the loss of Jaden. I honestly don't hate Jaden for Morant but not straight up and Morant is quite a bone head.

Anyway, just an alternative route that I hadn't thought much about because I was regarding McDaniels as untouchable

Cheers

Interesting thought, but as you noted, McDaniels is likely untouchable as I think he should be. I’d be interested on thoughts on who we could get in return for Randle if he opts in. I honestly would NOT trade Randle for Durant because I don’t trust Durant to stay on the court and he’s no longer a good defender. I also think he’s pretty whiny and mentally weak, which are qualities you don’t want on your team. I can’t think of a Randle deal that would viable and make sense for the Wolves so I’m thinking he’ll opt in and play here for one more season. I’m OK with that.

I don’t want to see Donte starting in the backcourt with Edwards. I like Donte, but not as a starting PG. I want to see Rob thrust into that role even if it means taking a step back next season. I think Rob is exactly what we need long term with Ant and Jaden but he’s not going to get where he needs to be unless he gets on the court consistently.

Other than a sensible Randle trade, which I can’t envision, the only trade we should make this off-season in my view is a trade up in the draft (if necessary) to draft Thomas Sorber. I’ve being digging into the draft prospects who are expected to be available in the mid teens. Based on what I’ve read, the metrics, and video highlights, I’m super impressed by Sorber. He looks like Randle but longer, with defensive instincts and without sticky fingers. Sorber is a tank but also quite quick and nimble with a very nice mid-range shooting touch and 3-point range. He seems to have a basketball IQ that’s off the charts and he clearly loves playing defense.

I completely agree regarding Donte and Rob, but I'm just assuming Rob doesn't get the starting nod. So my working assumption is that Ant is the de facto starting PG with Dante as the starting SG. Rob then comes in to get Ant off ball and is hopefully able to develop into a starter.

In either scenario I don't like DDV as a starter but I'm not sure what the realistic alternative is.

Yeah, DDV is clearly not a starting pg. Ant would fare far better in that role. An idea I don't hate if Randle and Naz both opt-in is having Clark start next to Ant in the backcourt. Clark can be the POA defender, freeing up Jaden to conserve some energy for the offensive end as well as being freed up to provide more help defense.
Ant/Clark/Jaden/Randle/Rudy I like that mix of defense and offense, and we will have a lot of firepower off the bench.

Naz as the 6th man, DDV second off the bench.

Bench unit: Naz/DDV/Shannon/Rob/Conley/whatever C big we sign or draft.

[DNatagal]

Did anyone see the Embiid idea tossed out there? I sure hope it was a nothing burger. I really would not want to see him in Minnesota for multiple reasons.

His injury history and huge salary has killed his value, so I would only be interested in him if and when (1) we won't have to give up anything of value for him; (2) he comes at a low salary; and (3) he is healthy enough to play 30 games a year and we could choose to sit him out for the first half of the year, slowly ramp him up over the second half of the regular season to get him ready for the playoffs and play him throughout playoffs. So in other words, highly unlikely unless everything were to lineup.

Agreed

[Sundog]

So I think we’re better as a team on both sides of the ball with Naz rather than Randle.

I think you’re projecting a lot onto those 17 games that Naz started, and not giving nearly enough weight to all those nights Naz goes 1-6 from 3. I don’t think he’s shown he can be relied on as a starter and certainly not paid starter money. Don’t get me wrong, I want to keep Naz around, but on a value contract coming off the bench.

[Lipoli390]

So I think we’re better as a team on both sides of the ball with Naz rather than Randle.

I think you’re projecting a lot onto those 17 games that Naz started, and not giving nearly enough weight to all those nights Naz goes 1-6 from 3. I don’t think he’s shown he can be relied on as a starter and certainly not paid starter money. Don’t get me wrong, I want to keep Naz around, but on a value contract coming off the bench.

You’re reaching a bit, Sundog. It’s hard to conclude that a PF who hit 38% of his threes on relatively high volume, averaged only 1.4 turnovers per game, and had the third best defensive rating on the team (essentially tied with Jaden McDaniels) isn’t starter quality because of his three point shooting.

Shooting 1-6 is 16.6%. Regarding “all those nights” when he “goes 1-6 from 3”, Naz shot 16.6% or less from behind the arc in 18 of his 80 games. I would want to see that improve. But for comparison, Myles Turner shot 16.6% or less from three in 13 of his 72 games as a starting big on a team headed to the NBA finals. Meanwhile, our own starting PF, Julius Randle, shot 16.6% or less from behind the arc in 21 of his 69 games. And Julius hit 34.4% of his threes overall. Now, let’s break down Naz Reid’s 38% three point shooting. Naz played 8 games in April and shot under 40% from three in only two of those games. He played 14 games in March and shot under 33.3% from three in 6 of those games. He played 11 games in February and shot under 33.3% from three in only 3 of them. He played 17 games in January and shot under 33.3% from three in only 3 of them and under 40% in only 6. He played 13 games in December and shot under 33.3% from three in only 4 of them and under 40% in only 5. He played 15 games in November and shot under 33.3% in only 5 of them and under 40% in only 8.

I’m not putting a lot of stock in Naz Reid’s 17 games as a starter. In fact, he shot under his average from behind the arc in those 17 games. However, those 17 games showed he can be consistently productive as a starter from a scoring and rebounding perspective without an increase in turnovers. My assessment of Naz as a starting quality NBA PF rests more on his overall stats and skills. For purposes of the Wolves the important comparison is between Naz and Randle. On a per minute equivalent basis, Naz had the same number of rebounds per game (7) as Randle, only 2 fewer points per game, fewer turnovers and a significantly better defensive rating than Randle. As a starter, Naz averaged more points and rebounds than Randle. If Randle is a starting caliber PF as we all know he is, then I don’t see how anyone can categorically dismiss Naz as potential starter. When you factor in the likelihood that Naz has untapped potential, the case for Naz as a starter over Randle gets stronger. The case gets even stronger when you look how Naz fits with the rest of the team as a guy who moves the ball faster, spreads the floor better, and doesn’t turn the ball over. The turnover contrast is particularly relevant given how big a factor turnovers were in many of the Wolves losses this season.

There’s room to debate whether the team should bring Randle or Naz back, assuming the Wolves have to choose one or the other. And if both come back there’s legitimate debate over which one should start. But I don’t think there’s a credible basis for concluding that Naz can’t be a quality starter. In fact, I can’t think of many teams that would not want a 25 year old starting PF who, in 32.3 minute per game (Randle’s minutes), averages 16 points, 38% shooting from behind the arc on relatively high volume, 7 rebounds and only 1.5 turnovers while also being regarding as a great teammate who moves the ball quickly in the flow of the offense and whose defensive rating ranks 18th in the League. Yes, I know Rudy has a lot to do with Naz Reid’s 110.4 defensive rating. But Rudy was on the floor just as much with Randle who produced a 113.2. defensive rating.

I like Randle and I love that he wants to be here. I like his toughness and his ability to get big buckets in the paint. I just think Naz is a better fit than Randle as a starting PF for this Wolves team with Rudy, Jaden and Ant. That said, I wouldn’t mind running it back next season with Randle as our startling PF and Naz as our 6th man. I can’t categorically dismiss the possibility that we could get to the NBA finals in that scenario. I just don’t think that’s realistic because I don’t think Naz will return under that scenario and I also don’t think it’s the best long-term strategy for the Wolves championship aspirations.

[Sundog]

Well, maybe you’re right, Lip, and I’m the only one here that isn’t ready to make Naz a starter for the Wolves. The idea just gives me the willies. It seems to me that you just can’t count on Naz to produce. Maybe Connelly/Finch see things differently or maybe there’s another team that wants to pay Naz starter money — I guess we’ll see. And I’m not saying ride or die with Julius either — I like Q’s suggestion that moving on from Randle opens things up for Jaden’s development. But I think the Wolves are still a win-now team, and Julius is the only player other than Ant that the Wolves could count on to score night in and night out, after he came back from injury. That consistent production has to be replaced if Randle is gone. Maybe someone can show us numbers that Naz can do that — I just haven’t seen it.

[Lipoli390]

Well, maybe you’re right, Lip, and I’m the only one here that isn’t ready to make Naz a starter for the Wolves. The idea just gives me the willies. It seems to me that you just can’t count on Naz to produce. Maybe Connelly/Finch see things differently or maybe there’s another team that wants to pay Naz starter money — I guess we’ll see. And I’m not saying ride or die with Julius either — I like Q’s suggestion that moving on from Randle opens things up for Jaden’s development. But I think the Wolves are still a win-now team, and Julius is the only player other than Ant that the Wolves could count on to score night in and night out, after he came back from injury. That consistent production has to be replaced if Randle is gone. Maybe someone can show us numbers that Naz can do that — I just haven’t seen it.

I don’t think you’re the only one here who isn’t ready to make Naz the Wolves starting PF. There are others just as wrong as you. . Seriously, Finch might agree with you given the fact that he started Randle over Naz. And honestly, I’m not sure he’s the guy we should roll with as our starting PF but I think he’s our best option right now and that we should give it a shot next season if we can bring him back without pushing the team over the 2nd apron. I come down with Q that Naz fits better and that includes optimizing Jaden. The good news is that both Randle and Naz want to be here and were both major contributors to the team making the Western Conference Finals.

I actually consider the Randle/Naz dilemma secondary to the importance of giving Ant a better backcourt mate than Mike Conley. I think Rob is the only guy on the roster who potentially fits that bill with Donte as our 6th or 7th man depending on whether Julius and Naz both return. Is Rob ready? I don’t know but I’d like to use next season to find out. I’m willing to take a half step or full step back next season for sake of the longer term success of this team as Ant and Jaden approach the prime years of their careers.

[D-Loser25]

I don’t think they’ll both be back next year and that’s good. I think Naz and Randle are pretty much a wash on both ends of the court (obviously different strengths and weaknesses) so the reason I lean toward Naz is because I assume his contract would be significantly cheaper. If it ends up being more than 4-80, I’m fine with ditching them both and going with door #3.

[60WinTim]

I don’t think they’ll both be back next year and that’s good. I think Naz and Randle are pretty much a wash on both ends of the court (obviously different strengths and weaknesses) so the reason I lean toward Naz is because I assume his contract would be significantly cheaper. If it ends up being more than 4-80, I’m fine with ditching them both and going with door #3.

Yeah, I am not a fan of a Randle-NAZ frontcourt for any significant portion of a game. Therefore, I really don't want to see them both back. But my preference between the two goes towards Randle. He is the more proven of the two, and clearly has a skillset that's more complimentary to the team than what NAZ provides, which is based mostly 3-point shooting. And Randle was able to adjust his game to what the Wolves needed, and I would hope that process continues into next season.

On how it is all likely to do down? The draft comes first, and we will see if we come away with one (or two) big men that might have a chance to contribute this coming season. Then comes the Randle player option / extension decision. My guess is they work out an extension, which will only give NAZ one more reason to look for greener pastures. But if Randle chooses the player option without an extension, then I expect the Wolves to move on from Randle and pursue NAZ for an extension.

We should know the path by the end of the month!

[Lipoli390]

I don’t think they’ll both be back next year and that’s good. I think Naz and Randle are pretty much a wash on both ends of the court (obviously different strengths and weaknesses) so the reason I lean toward Naz is because I assume his contract would be significantly cheaper. If it ends up being more than 4-80, I’m fine with ditching them both and going with door #3.

Yeah, I am not a fan of a Randle-NAZ frontcourt for any significant portion of a game. Therefore, I really don't want to see them both back. But my preference between the two goes towards Randle. He is the more proven of the two, and clearly has a skillset that's more complimentary to the team than what NAZ provides, which is based mostly 3-point shooting. And Randle was able to adjust his game to what the Wolves needed, and I would hope that process continues into next season.

On how it is all likely to do down? The draft comes first, and we will see if we come away with one (or two) big men that might have a chance to contribute this coming season. Then comes the Randle player option / extension decision. My guess is they work out an extension, which will only give NAZ one more reason to look for greener pastures. But if Randle chooses the player option without an extension, then I expect the Wolves to move on from Randle and pursue NAZ for an extension.

We should know the path by the end of the month!

I think you’re right that it will likely be one or the other (Naz or Randle) when the dust settles this summer. I disagree that Randle’s a better fit than Naz for all the reasons some of us have given. I’ll just note that there’s a lot more than 3-point shooting to Naz Reid’s offensive game. He’s a remarkably talented ball-handler for a player as his position and has a terrific dribble drive game with the ability to finish well with either hand. He also has a nice feel for the game as he keeps the ball moving in the flow of the offense. He doesn’t overpower defenders like Randle but he scores in the paint effectively with his ballhandling, quickness and finesse.

I lean towards Naz over Randle for six main reasons: (1) Naz does a much better job of protecting the ball and turnovers were our biggest flaw this past season; (2) Naz doesn’t dominate the ball nearly as much as Randle and is much better at keeping the ball moving in the flow of the offense, which helps optimize the contributions of others especially Jaden; (3) Naz is a better three-point shooter and therefore commands far more defensive attention at the three-point line, which helps stretch the defense and open up more room for Ant and Jaden to cut and penetrate inside; (4) Naz is at least a marginally better defender than Randle as evident in their respective defensive ratings and Naz Reid’s ability to protect the rim; (5) Naz is younger and has the potential to improve as he settles into a starting role with more minutes overall and more more consistent minutes whereas Randle is who he is and might be close to declining; and (6) Naz has a longer history with our key core guys, Ant and Jaden, and is very close to them personally as well.

I think Randle and Naz probably have similar market values. I suspect Naz has a slightly higher overall market value on a multi-year deal because of his age and potentially untapped upside. And I think Naz Reid’s value is even higher relative to Randle specifically for the Wolves given what our team needs. For the Wolves, a 4-year $100 million contract for the 25 year old Naz to move forward with the 23 year old Ant, 24 year old Jaden and 24 year old TSJ makes far more sense in my view than a 4-year $100 million deal for 30 year old Julius Randle.

[Q-is-here]

Here is the net rating stuff for various big pairings over the past two seasons:

Player Pairing/Offensive Rating/Defensive Rating/Net Rating:

2024-25 Regular Season
Randle-Rudy - 114.4/108.9/+5.4
Randle-Naz - 115.3/112.9/+2.4
Naz-Rudy - 113.4/101.6/+11.8

2025 Playoffs
Randle-Rudy - 112.5/102.5/+10.0
Randle-Naz - 112.0/112.2/-.2
Naz-Rudy - 107.4/103.7/+3.7

2023-24 Regular Season:
KAT-Rudy - 118.0/109.4/+8.6
KAT-Naz - 113.1/106.1/+7.0
Naz-Rudy - 108.6/99.4/+9.2

2024 Playoffs
KAT-Rudy - 118.0/108.3/+9.7
KAT-Naz - 103.6/114.4/-10.8
Naz-Rudy - 118.1/108.6/+9.6