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Re: Rate Finch

Posted: Wed May 06, 2026 2:56 pm
by Wolvesfan21
BeenLurkin wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 12:45 pm
Wolvesfan21 wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 11:22 am
BeenLurkin wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 11:10 am Phil Jackson is one person you can’t use him for two different fucking examples. And we’re all waiting for you to name one of these other dozens like you are not short of time here go ahead pull out another one.
Fine I’ll do YOUR homework for you.
I the history of NBA championships there have been exactly 7 Head coaches to win a title in their first year as Head Coach of that team. Ready? Here we go;

Paul Westhead LAL - he was an assistant the year prior to his title. go watch the HbO series winning time, it’s amazing!

Bill Sharman 1971 LAL (played for Boston, coached LA. Must have been truly Hated by Celtics Nation)

George Snesky 55/56 Philadelphia Warriors. Looks like he took a year off after playing for that team for 8 years then won a title first try coaching. So technically been with the program for a WHILE

Jack Ramsay 76/77 Portland

Buddy Jeanette 1948 BAA league Baltimore Bullets! Played for them for three seasons first so again, not technically new to program.

Here’s a fun one and an actual learned something useful moment, coach
John Kunlda of the Msp Lakers won it his first try plus 5 out of the next 6 years!

Then we have Steve Kerr and Lakers Phil Jackson.

Now that list expands to a few more coaches given a 2nd or third year with their new team but besides the outliers of Kerr and Jackson none of those additional examples happened after 1980 and I think listing these relics of yester year might bring my point into crystal clarity.
There are not INFUCKINGFACT dozens of examples of coaches coming into a program and winning it all immediatly.

There are 7.

Of which two were players turned into coaches of their same team so maybe Mike Conely is the answer? I’d love that honestly.
The remaining 5 include titles from 56’ 71’ and 77’ so forgive me if I’m not a bit skeptical of the lack of recency there.

Now that leaves again Phil and Kerr.

So to hopefully end this inane and redundantly stupid argument that a new coach is worth the chance let us conclude with something that happened at best 7 times in the history of a 79 year old league might not be something to gamble on? Is that enough for you? Are you able to take in new information and adjust your take? Or are you a MAGA cultist?

If it’s not Finch it should be an assistant from within (Micah) or a player the guys all respect and is ready to coach (Mike or Joe). If it comes from outside it is a 6% chance of success and a 3.7% chance of sustained success (Kerr, Kunlda, Jackson going on to win multiple titles. Most other coaches won 1 and done).
Why do new coaches only get one year to win it all? Finch has had 6 and 5 full seasons now. You're giving Finch 5 or 6 or 10 seasons and no one else two? According to your standard we should have fired Finch after year 1 or do you give every coach a decade? I'm not sure.

Also the list is very erroneous.

Re: Rate Finch

Posted: Wed May 06, 2026 2:57 pm
by BeenLurkin
Wolvesfan21 wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 2:56 pm
BeenLurkin wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 12:45 pm
Wolvesfan21 wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 11:22 am

Fine I’ll do YOUR homework for you.
I the history of NBA championships there have been exactly 7 Head coaches to win a title in their first year as Head Coach of that team. Ready? Here we go;

Paul Westhead LAL - he was an assistant the year prior to his title. go watch the HbO series winning time, it’s amazing!

Bill Sharman 1971 LAL (played for Boston, coached LA. Must have been truly Hated by Celtics Nation)

George Snesky 55/56 Philadelphia Warriors. Looks like he took a year off after playing for that team for 8 years then won a title first try coaching. So technically been with the program for a WHILE

Jack Ramsay 76/77 Portland

Buddy Jeanette 1948 BAA league Baltimore Bullets! Played for them for three seasons first so again, not technically new to program.

Here’s a fun one and an actual learned something useful moment, coach
John Kunlda of the Msp Lakers won it his first try plus 5 out of the next 6 years!

Then we have Steve Kerr and Lakers Phil Jackson.

Now that list expands to a few more coaches given a 2nd or third year with their new team but besides the outliers of Kerr and Jackson none of those additional examples happened after 1980 and I think listing these relics of yester year might bring my point into crystal clarity.
There are not INFUCKINGFACT dozens of examples of coaches coming into a program and winning it all immediatly.

There are 7.

Of which two were players turned into coaches of their same team so maybe Mike Conely is the answer? I’d love that honestly.
The remaining 5 include titles from 56’ 71’ and 77’ so forgive me if I’m not a bit skeptical of the lack of recency there.

Now that leaves again Phil and Kerr.

So to hopefully end this inane and redundantly stupid argument that a new coach is worth the chance let us conclude with something that happened at best 7 times in the history of a 79 year old league might not be something to gamble on? Is that enough for you? Are you able to take in new information and adjust your take? Or are you a MAGA cultist?

If it’s not Finch it should be an assistant from within (Micah) or a player the guys all respect and is ready to coach (Mike or Joe). If it comes from outside it is a 6% chance of success and a 3.7% chance of sustained success (Kerr, Kunlda, Jackson going on to win multiple titles. Most other coaches won 1 and done).
Why do new coaches only get one year to win it all? Finch has had 6 and 5 full seasons now. You're giving Finch 5 or 6 or 10 seasons and no one else two? According to your standard we should have fired Finch after year 1 or do you give every coach a decade? I'm not sure.

Also the list is very erroneous.
Listen fuckwad I am using your logic of hiring a new coach and showing you how often it works. Stop changing the goal posts you gaslighting idiot.

Re: Rate Finch

Posted: Wed May 06, 2026 2:58 pm
by BeenLurkin
And point out the erroneous nature of the list. I already said I forgot to add Larry and Nurse.

Re: Rate Finch

Posted: Wed May 06, 2026 3:34 pm
by guest81
Wolvesfan21 wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 9:12 am
guest81 wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 8:35 am
Wolvesfan21 wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 7:38 am

Coaching changes are often a thing that helps create championship teams. Phil with the Bulls and Lakers, Brown with Pistons, Riley with Heat, Kerr with GSW and I'm sure there are many, many more. Those teams didn't settle for good.
You know there are way more examples of coaching changes that didn't work and those are super rare examples right?
Yeah sure, but I just named 5 off the top of my head that did work. It's not an outlier, It's actually normal for coaching changes to result in championships. Those teams were good but didn't settle for good and most coaching changes are not good teams either obviously.

The thing too is, would those teams have won it all without a coaching change? Some of them like the Bulls, probably would have. Would it have been 6 though? IDK. Some of those it's pretty clear the coaching change was a big factor.

We regret not drafting Curry, but does he win a Championship here? I'd say very unlikely. We didn't have the surrounding talent or coaching to facilitate it. I think he'd still be an All Star, but his career would have been quite different.
5 compared to the hundreds of coaching changes is in fact the definition of an outlier

Re: Rate Finch

Posted: Wed May 06, 2026 3:34 pm
by Wolvesfan21
BeenLurkin wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 2:57 pm
Wolvesfan21 wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 2:56 pm
BeenLurkin wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 12:45 pm

Why do new coaches only get one year to win it all? Finch has had 6 and 5 full seasons now. You're giving Finch 5 or 6 or 10 seasons and no one else two? According to your standard we should have fired Finch after year 1 or do you give every coach a decade? I'm not sure.

Also the list is very erroneous.
Listen fuckwad I am using your logic of hiring a new coach and showing you how often it works. Stop changing the goal posts you gaslighting idiot.
I never concluded 1st year championship or bust, that was you who added that stipulation to make you feel better. "Oh the coach didn't win it in year 1 that means coaching changes don't work". Sure 1st year ideal, but not realistic. 2-3 years, OK you had time.

I've been defending Finch for 5 years now, thats completely fair as he is a good coach, but I also want to see us on a path to winning a championship and what I've seen so far this season says otherwise. These playoffs are helping but we'll see. As I said, no flowers for a win in round 2. No one is remembering who won a game in round 2 of the playoffs in 5 years.

Re: Rate Finch

Posted: Wed May 06, 2026 3:40 pm
by BeenLurkin
I stopped at one year because I have a life and things to do! I could go deeper if you feel you still have any legitimate ground to stand on. I warn you that you do not. New coaching hires rarely pay off and when the do it takes many years. If you extend the window to three years after hire it only adds 5 or so coaches. So still well under your completely random grasp at a dozen more than the 4 you listed. And yeah I said 4 Ava. Because the bulls version of Phil doesn’t count at three years either!!!! He was an assistant there! Just stop and admit defeat or at least debate with ethics man. Good lord you’re doing badly at this.

Re: Rate Finch

Posted: Wed May 06, 2026 3:42 pm
by Wolvesfan21
guest81 wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 3:34 pm
Wolvesfan21 wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 9:12 am
guest81 wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 8:35 am

You know there are way more examples of coaching changes that didn't work and those are super rare examples right?
Yeah sure, but I just named 5 off the top of my head that did work. It's not an outlier, It's actually normal for coaching changes to result in championships. Those teams were good but didn't settle for good and most coaching changes are not good teams either obviously.

The thing too is, would those teams have won it all without a coaching change? Some of them like the Bulls, probably would have. Would it have been 6 though? IDK. Some of those it's pretty clear the coaching change was a big factor.

We regret not drafting Curry, but does he win a Championship here? I'd say very unlikely. We didn't have the surrounding talent or coaching to facilitate it. I think he'd still be an All Star, but his career would have been quite different.
5 compared to the hundreds of coaching changes is in fact the definition of an outlier
Considering that only a little over a handful of coaches are new to a team each year and by far most coaches hired are on terrible teams, it's remarkable it's ever happened at all!!!

Think about the mega nuts Lore and Arod would have to have to fire Finch then go on to win it ALL within the next couple seasons. That would be crazy.

I very highly doubt Finch is fired no matter how the playoffs finish, I just don't see it happening. I think they give him one more year.

Re: Rate Finch

Posted: Wed May 06, 2026 3:45 pm
by BeenLurkin
If you think a three year window still isn’t enough to judge a new coach then You have to wrestle with the impending end of the Ant window here. Any new coach starts a timer for Ants departure as I have stated in the past he is immensely loyal and will have no patience for some new douche canoe telling him what to do and not getting results. That’s the last of your rope bud. There is 0 reason to consider moving on from Finch this off season. There is a near 0 chance tha doing so in the following season will lead to success while Anthony Edwards is part of the team. There is no reason to entertain the debate of when do we rebuild at this point. So really what’s the point here? Finch is A- at worst if you think he should get more regular season success out of them. Hes A or A+ if you realize that post season is what matters. He has leveled us and himself up continuously with ceiling to spare.

Re: Rate Finch

Posted: Wed May 06, 2026 5:50 pm
by BeenLurkin
Wolvesfan21 wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 3:42 pm
guest81 wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 3:34 pm
Wolvesfan21 wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 9:12 am

Yeah sure, but I just named 5 off the top of my head that did work. It's not an outlier, It's actually normal for coaching changes to result in championships. Those teams were good but didn't settle for good and most coaching changes are not good teams either obviously.

The thing too is, would those teams have won it all without a coaching change? Some of them like the Bulls, probably would have. Would it have been 6 though? IDK. Some of those it's pretty clear the coaching change was a big factor.

We regret not drafting Curry, but does he win a Championship here? I'd say very unlikely. We didn't have the surrounding talent or coaching to facilitate it. I think he'd still be an All Star, but his career would have been quite different.
5 compared to the hundreds of coaching changes is in fact the definition of an outlier
Considering that only a little over a handful of coaches are new to a team each year and by far most coaches hired are on terrible teams, it's remarkable it's ever happened at all!!!

Think about the mega nuts Lore and Arod would have to have to fire Finch then go on to win it ALL within the next couple seasons. That would be crazy.

I very highly doubt Finch is fired no matter how the playoffs finish, I just don't see it happening. I think they give him one more year.
You’re such a flip flopper. It’s not an outlier! I’m surprised it happens at all! Which is it? Where are these dozens of examples? When in reality even the 4 you named have asterisk in my opinion. Phill hired from within isn’t the same as a new coach to the system

Re: Rate Finch

Posted: Wed May 06, 2026 7:04 pm
by AussieWolf3
BeenLurkin wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 5:50 pm
Wolvesfan21 wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 3:42 pm
guest81 wrote: Wed May 06, 2026 3:34 pm

5 compared to the hundreds of coaching changes is in fact the definition of an outlier
Considering that only a little over a handful of coaches are new to a team each year and by far most coaches hired are on terrible teams, it's remarkable it's ever happened at all!!!

Think about the mega nuts Lore and Arod would have to have to fire Finch then go on to win it ALL within the next couple seasons. That would be crazy.

I very highly doubt Finch is fired no matter how the playoffs finish, I just don't see it happening. I think they give him one more year.
You’re such a flip flopper. It’s not an outlier! I’m surprised it happens at all! Which is it? Where are these dozens of examples? When in reality even the 4 you named have asterisk in my opinion. Phill hired from within isn’t the same as a new coach to the system
It would be more rewarding to discuss this with you if you weren't such an ass about it.
I'll be honest you have brought some great points to this thread and given me plenty to think about, so thanks for that, but seriously stop lording over everybody how much smarter you think you are

I also think your dataset is flawed. You need more controls than just "new hire wins championship in x years"
It would be really interesting to see something like, "how long did it take for new hires on teams that were in the playoffs the prior year to win a championship? How many teams reached a higher tier of success in the subsequent year?"

Something like that would be much more compelling than just measuring championships won in the first year against ALL new hires. Most new coaches are hired to bad teams so of course they didn't win championships in the first year or even three years, so you have a sample size that way diluted.

I'm not saying my test would bear out one way or the other, it would just be a more honest dataset

So your .0000006% or whatever it was is based on a flawed premise.