Who should Wolves draft at 19?

[Monster]

Always interesting to hear Chris Finch talk, and he was on KFAN this morning. One interesting comment he made...he said draft picks after #17 historically have only a 17% chance of being a rotation player after 3 years. About 1 in 6.

I take that as Chris Finch trying to lower expectations and take pressure off the pick, but if the Wolves keep the pick they are seeking and expecting to get a quality starter or rotational piece. That stat is meaningless as most second round picks flame out, so its a deceptive stat when you hold the 19th pick. I did a thread and there were a lot of quality picks made at 19 since 2000 and 75% were rotational players three years later and most of the remaining 25% were still in the league three years later getting 9-12 minutes a game. I bumped the thread so you can take a look at some of the players taken at 19.

My only worry is that Finchy is spouting a meaningless and deceptive stat, to rationalize trading away the first round pick and selling a potential trade to the Wolves fan base. I certainly hope not.

I'll have to listen to the entire conversation but lets say if the quote was in response to a question about all the Wolves draft picks Finch bringing up this stat would be make more sense in that context.

[FNG]

Always interesting to hear Chris Finch talk, and he was on KFAN this morning. One interesting comment he made...he said draft picks after #17 historically have only a 17% chance of being a rotation player after 3 years. About 1 in 6.

I take that as Chris Finch trying to lower expectations and take pressure off the pick, but if the Wolves keep the pick they are seeking and expecting to get a quality starter or rotational piece. That stat is meaningless as most second round picks flame out, so its a deceptive stat when you hold the 19th pick. I did a thread and there were a lot of quality picks made at 19 since 2000 and 75% were rotational players three years later and most of the remaining 25% were still in the league three years later getting 9-12 minutes a game. I bumped the thread so you can take a look at some of the players taken at 19.

My only worry is that Finchy is spouting a meaningless and deceptive stat, to rationalize trading away the first round pick and selling a potential trade to the Wolves fan base. I certainly hope not.

The more I thought about it, it was a meaningless comment by Finchy. There are a lot of picks after 17, and obviously the ones late in the second round have a very small chance of becoming rotation players, and that skews the math. I much prefer your more detailed analysis of prior #19 picks. Actually he was not very informative when answering Paul Allen's questions about the draft. When Allen asked him of the first 19 expected picks were stronger at any particular position, Finchy said something to the effect that he hadn't really focused that much on the draft to date. Um, I'm guessing that's not correct.

[Q-is-here]

First off, Finch isn't even the decision maker when it comes to the draft. While I'm sure he has input, this is really a front office decision. So I wouldn't put too much weight on what he says.

And second, it seems like you (KG) are putting an awful lot of weight on this draft, as if it could make or break our future. While our front office should leave no stone unturned as it relates to their draft diligence, the fact remains that it is a bit of a crapshoot and it's tough to nail every pick, especially outside of the lottery. Most of these guys outside the lottery will end up being "meh" at best.

[KG4Ever]

First off, Finch isn't even the decision maker when it comes to the draft. While I'm sure he has input, this is really a front office decision. So I wouldn't put too much weight on what he says.

And second, it seems like you (KG) are putting an awful lot of weight on this draft, as if it could make or break our future. While our front office should leave no stone unturned as it relates to their draft diligence, the fact remains that it is a bit of a crapshoot and it's tough to nail every pick, especially outside of the lottery. Most of these guys outside the lottery will end up being "meh" at best.

Hmm, not sure about that. I think this year and next year are important years to build the core around Kat and Ant. I think free agency is just as important. I'm just excited the Wolves have four picks in this draft and have someone who has a better than average track record of making picks. Why not get a bit excited?

I've never liked the crapshoot analogy, since I don't think its that random as some organizations consistently excel with the draft (San Antonio, Golden State, Toronto) relative to the hand they are dealt. Of course, no organization bats a thousand, but it would be nice to nail more than our share of drafts going forward.

[Monster]

Q a couple days ago some of us had crossed over into that wonderful time where we have spent time on this draft and the players we could select and now...we gotta get em all!!! :) This happens most years it just took longer than usual. I think the Wolves are in a good spot to take a couple swings at getting a good or worthwhile player/s. If you want to stay skeptical that probably wise. I'm not dying for any particular player from this draft but I do think a guy at #19 could be quite valuable. We have seen too many guy in that range or below turn out to be guys we or other teams would like to have on a roster. Sure we shouldn't get carried away especially in terms of impact this year (totally agree with your adding to the pipeline idea) but I think getting excited about this draft where the Wolves have 4 picks and some assets where they could make some moves is reasonable. I'm a little disappointed that you aren't looking at prospects with your BS meter (which I totally get why you aren't spending my time lookin at draft picks). Maybe we will get that from you after picks have been made. :)

[SameOldNudityDrew]

First off, Finch isn't even the decision maker when it comes to the draft. While I'm sure he has input, this is really a front office decision. So I wouldn't put too much weight on what he says.

And second, it seems like you (KG) are putting an awful lot of weight on this draft, as if it could make or break our future. While our front office should leave no stone unturned as it relates to their draft diligence, the fact remains that it is a bit of a crapshoot and it's tough to nail every pick, especially outside of the lottery. Most of these guys outside the lottery will end up being "meh" at best.

Hmm, not sure about that. I think this year and next year are important years to build the core around Kat and Ant. I think free agency is just as important. I'm just excited the Wolves have four picks in this draft and have someone who has a better than average track record of making picks. Why not get a bit excited?

I've never liked the crapshoot analogy, since I don't think its that random as some organizations consistently excel with the draft (San Antonio, Golden State, Toronto) relative to the hand they are dealt. Of course, no organization bats a thousand, but it would be nice to nail more than our share of drafts going forward.

In my opinion, LAST year was the crucial draft for us. I said this at the time and I think it's even more true now.

KAT only has two years left on his contract right now, if I'm not mistaken. That means realistically, if we don't really take a big step forward to real competitiveness this year, I think the chances of him not extending his contract after next season and essentially forcing us to trade him next summer are high.

Q is right that rookies are rarely positive contributors, so it's highly doubtful that somebody we pick at 19 this year could help us salvage the KAT-era. I have a bit more hope for that now, given how the rest of the team came together this past year, especially the acquisition of Beverley and the growth of Edwards, McDaniels, and even DLO and KAT. I don't think we necessarily need another star at this point, which is why getting a solid guy who fits a highly needed role could be more likely actually help us avoid having to trade KAT next summer.

But time's almost up. That's why, after years of criticizing tanking, I actually argued down the stretch of the 20-21 season that we should have been tanking instead of winning all those games. I felt dirty making that argument because in general, I think tanking is done way too much and doesn't always pay off because of the uncertainties of whether draft picks will be good and whether you'll even get that high pick, especially with the flattened odds, not to mention that it's arguably a kind of sanctioned cheating. At the time, I think we calculated that losing those games would have increased the likelihood of keeping that pick by landing in the top 3 or 4 by something like 10-20%. That might not seem like much. And I was secretly glad that a lot of guys disagreed, because I still think tanking is kind of dirty. But I remember arguing that we should have tanked then to try to keep the pick in last year's draft because: 1) we needed to acquire talent fast to be able to try to get good enough to keep KAT as one of our cornerstones; 2) that draft looked really good in the top 4--god, how awesome would it be to have Cade or Mobley or Barnes on this team; and 3) we were obviously going to improve the next season (this 21-22 season) so there was little chance we'd be picking that high again soon.

I do think our improvement has me feeling better. Good enough that I actually do think it's reasonable to assume continued improvement from Ant and McDaniels might even make getting the right limited role player in the draft could help give us an edge this year. This is why I'm thinking about Mark Williams the last day or so, although on paper he seems like kind of a low-upside pick. Maybe that would be enough to really compete this year.

Or maybe Ant develops enough that being forced to trade KAT next summer might not necessarily require another 3-5 year rebuild, and in which case, getting another good young player in this draft to fit with Ant could actually be really important for that reason. In other words, maybe this draft will be important not for getting a guy to help us make a run in the playoffs and basically improving the team we have, but for potentially building a foundation for the post-KAT Wolves era. I'm hoping for the former, as annoying as I find KAT. I want to win in the playoffs now, not keep hoping for a better team in a few years.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Respectfully, Minnesota only had a 40.1-percent chance of keeping last year's first-round pick even if they had tanked hard enough to finish with a bottom-three record in the NBA. If the Wolves had finished with the fourth-worst record in the NBA, their odds of keeping the pick would have dropped to a measly 36.6 percent, then 31.6-percent (fifth), 27.6-percent (sixth), and 21.4-percent (seventh). Simply, the odds were not in their favor and there were a handful of worse teams actively trying to lose harder than Minnesota even could have. Frankly, tanking would have been the worst thing this franchise could have done. They would have intentionally lost games and still lost their pick-- a would-be all-time embarrassing outcome that would only further sour the reputation of this organization around the sports world.

Not to mention, the ping pong balls just didn't fall our way regardless. We actually know that now so harping on whether Minnesota should have tanked or not is misguided. Had Minnesota tanked their way to a third-worst finish they would have had Orlando's lottery odds and the Magic wound up with the fifth-overall pick. That pick would have processed to Golden State as it fell outside the top-four. The same can be said for a fourth-worst finish as they would have had Oklahoma City's lottery odds and they won the sixth-overall pick, which also would have been sent to the Warriors.

Minnesota essentially said to hell with ping pong balls and competed until the very end, and they were right to do so. They needed to see what that group actually looked like before entering the off-season and the probability that they would retain their pick was low anyways. It's a fun "what if" because any one of those top-four picks would look great in Minnesota, but in the end it lacks logical reasoning behind it.

[Q-is-here]

So glad we didn't tank two seasons ago. To me the way we played down the stretch of the prior season was the first step toward putting together a winning campaign this past season and making the playoffs.

[thedoper]

The idea of Anthony Edwards being on a team that tanks disgusts me. I hope that bullshit never enters this franchise again.

[Lipoli390]

"KAT only has two years left on his contract right now, if I'm not mistaken. That means realistically, if we don't really take a big step forward to real competitiveness this year, I think the chances of him not extending his contract after next season and essentially forcing us to trade him next summer are high."

Drew - I strongly disagree with you premise that the Wolves success last season wasn't "real competitiveness." Consequently, I don't believe the Wolves need to take a "big step forward" next season. The Wolves won 46 games and took the #2 seed in the West to 6 games. That was a HUGE step forward from the previous season and it wasn't a mirage. The Wolves had a terrific season last season and were clearly a highly competitive, playoff team while at the same time there were one of the youngest teams in the League.

The Wolves big leap forward last season reflected the development of our young star, Ant, incremental defensive improvement from both KAT and DLO, the addition of Patrick Beverley and the fact that we finally have a really good head coach. There's are good reasons to expect this team to improve even more next season:

1. Edwards and McDaniels are really talented and are at the point in their respective careers when good players tend to show the most improvement.

2. KAT and DLO are just entering the prime years of their careers and should be expected to be at the top of their respective games. Moreover, DLO had a subpar shooting season and will likely progress to his mean next season.

3. Nowell showed a lot of growth last season and looks to be developing into a really good player

4. The Wolves will have all their salary cap exceptions and will be around $20 million under the luxury tax threshold, which will given them ample opportunity to significantly improve the roster via free agency

5. The entire team will have a full season of familiarity with each other and the head coach under their belts, and that alone should lead to improvement.

Nevertheless, as Tim Connelly pointed out, improvement isn't always linear - meaning the Wolves might not win more than 46 games next season and could win less than 46. The key is that they keep winning while they continue to build and move in the right direction. The Wolves are not yet a "win-now" team that needs to iron out a few details and compete for a championship before a disgruntled key player forces his way out. KAT clearly wants to stay here and last season likely further cemented that desire. Nor are the Wolves what I'd call a rebuilding team. I'd say they're a "win-soon" team that's still in the process of building a sustainable winner - like the Nuggets and Warriors. As Tim has said, you can't skip steps. This is not the time to take a big swing on a major trade for the "right" player. And it's not time to stop adding young talent to the roster. The front office needs to be smart, calculated and prudent in pursuing steady, consistent improvement, focusing on both next season AND the seasons thereafter. The Wolves are well positioned to focus on both. They can add one or two talented young players through this year's draft and help further improve the team for next season through free agency and/or through a strategic trade involving Beasley with some other player assets like Naz Reid.

I'll add that, if KAT becomes disgruntled and wants out, that's all the more reason to draft high-upside talent now with an eye towards having young that can grow and develop with Wolves best talent, Edwards, and perhaps McDaniels. If KAT starts hinting that he might want out, then the Wolves can trade him next summer and get a huge return in draft assets and young talent. But I don't see things going that route. Instead, I see KAT signing the max extension before the season starts, in which case there would be no concern about KAT leaving.

Does any of this mean the Wolves should absolutely not trade the #19 pick for a win-now veteran? No, but it would depend on who that veteran is. If it's a 28-year old Capela who would fit a key need, then that's OK with me depending on the rest of the players and picks involved. My preference is to keep the pick or combine it with a couple of our second-round picks and perhaps Naz Reid to move up in the first round if it would ensure the Wolves can get are really good high-upside talent they want (for me that would be Jalen Williams, Dalen Terry or Jalen Duren). Then use free agency or Beasley to acquire the best veteran big to start alongside Towns, not just for next season, but for many seasons thereafter. That would be my approach. It will be interesting the approach taken by our new, high-priced, front office.