Minnesota Sports Forum

Q12543 wrote:

Camden wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:

Camden wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:The biggest thing to consider is what is our future look like with DLO/KAT?

NBA Championship? If that is out of the question then we need to start making plans to move on from both.

Given the current state of the franchise, they shouldn't be thinking championship or bust. They should be working towards being a competent and competitive organization and going from there. That unfortunately means baby steps and making the playoffs first. I'll also add that the conversation is no longer about just Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell, but it's about those two and whatever player Anthony Edwards develops into.

Yeah but they are not making baby steps into making the playoffs, so far at least. So that's the point. We need to see progress in wins and losses, yet we are not. If this team made the playoffs this season with 40-42 wins, I could see a path to contention in a few seasons. Continued growth from Ant/Jaden and even DLO/KAT.

I need to see progress or I'm fine in making moves. In fact it would be foolish not to try and make moves to get better if we don't see progress.

I don't think we really disagree here. It sounds like we're saying similar things. I was one of those who agreed with blowing it up if this team can only gather 30-ish wins with reasonable health. That's definitely not good enough.

But we also have to remind ourselves that it's only been nine games and the offense that looked to be the strength of this team has opened the season in a slump. Not only is there 73 games left to be played, but there's also the expected bounce back from the scorers on the team. Frankly, too many guys are playing much worse than they ever have. We can agree to disagree on this last part, but I don't expect half of the rotation to continue being below replacement level scorers. That leads me to believe that this team still has a path to the playoffs with this core. And that should be the goal for now. Make the playoffs. Any talk of championships should be tabled until this team isn't an embarrassment.

You may be right Cam, but at what point is the hole too big to climb out of? And it's not like things get easier for us over the next few games. The hole could get deep REAL fast. And at that point, you aren't just hoping for guys to revert to their mean but now you need multiple guys to get white-hot while staying largely injury free. This team's mental fragility just couldn't afford such a bad first 9 games.

Disappointment is a fair reaction to how this team started the season, but panic shouldn't begin to set in until at least 20 games in. If this team is winning just 33-percent of their games through one quarter of the season, then yeah, by all means let's seriously discuss blowing it up and rebuilding. We're not there yet.

As far as the hole Minnesota has to climb out of, they're only one game (two wins) behind Portland at 5-6 for the 10-seed. The season is still so young that a poor start can be overcome. Atlanta is 4-8. Indiana is 4-7. Boston is 4-6. Milwaukee is 5-6. None of these teams expected to be below .500. We're acting as if the Wolves are the team located in New Orleans who opened the year 1-10 with an overweight and possibly injury prone star missing game after game. The situation isn't that dire right now and the hole is surmountable. I'm trusting the talent on the roster and the coaching in place for now.

Camden wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

Camden wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:

Camden wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:The biggest thing to consider is what is our future look like with DLO/KAT?

NBA Championship? If that is out of the question then we need to start making plans to move on from both.

Given the current state of the franchise, they shouldn't be thinking championship or bust. They should be working towards being a competent and competitive organization and going from there. That unfortunately means baby steps and making the playoffs first. I'll also add that the conversation is no longer about just Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell, but it's about those two and whatever player Anthony Edwards develops into.

Yeah but they are not making baby steps into making the playoffs, so far at least. So that's the point. We need to see progress in wins and losses, yet we are not. If this team made the playoffs this season with 40-42 wins, I could see a path to contention in a few seasons. Continued growth from Ant/Jaden and even DLO/KAT.

I need to see progress or I'm fine in making moves. In fact it would be foolish not to try and make moves to get better if we don't see progress.

I don't think we really disagree here. It sounds like we're saying similar things. I was one of those who agreed with blowing it up if this team can only gather 30-ish wins with reasonable health. That's definitely not good enough.

But we also have to remind ourselves that it's only been nine games and the offense that looked to be the strength of this team has opened the season in a slump. Not only is there 73 games left to be played, but there's also the expected bounce back from the scorers on the team. Frankly, too many guys are playing much worse than they ever have. We can agree to disagree on this last part, but I don't expect half of the rotation to continue being below replacement level scorers. That leads me to believe that this team still has a path to the playoffs with this core. And that should be the goal for now. Make the playoffs. Any talk of championships should be tabled until this team isn't an embarrassment.

You may be right Cam, but at what point is the hole too big to climb out of? And it's not like things get easier for us over the next few games. The hole could get deep REAL fast. And at that point, you aren't just hoping for guys to revert to their mean but now you need multiple guys to get white-hot while staying largely injury free. This team's mental fragility just couldn't afford such a bad first 9 games.

Disappointment is a fair reaction to how this team started the season, but panic shouldn't begin to set in until at least 20 games in. If this team is winning just 33-percent of their games through one quarter of the season, then yeah, by all means let's seriously discuss blowing it up and rebuilding. We're not there yet.

As far as the hole Minnesota has to climb out of, they're only one game (two wins) behind Portland at 5-6 for the 10-seed. The season is still so young that a poor start can be overcome. Atlanta is 4-8. Indiana is 4-7. Boston is 4-6. Milwaukee is 5-6. None of these teams expected to be below .500. We're acting as if the Wolves are the team located in New Orleans who opened the year 1-10 with an overweight and possibly injury prone star missing game after game. The situation isn't that dire right now and the hole is surmountable. I'm trusting the talent on the roster and the coaching in place for now.

While I understand the concept of pointing out other teams not doing well... just like we did with other players not shooting well.

Track record matters. The benefit of the doubt matters.

Boston and Milwaukee are proven commodities in years past. Even Atlanta deserves some of it. We know that it's a team CAPABLE of winning a lot of games. Indiana has won 3 out of 4, so at least they can point to improvement.

The Wolves roster has not proven to be anything but a bottom feeder for all but 25 games at the end of an odd season where they managed to win about as much as they lost. Considering it's the worst franchise in NBA history and has next-to-zero success (and barely even mediocre) for 15+ years... I don't feel like comparing the Wolves to the defending champs is really any more accurate than comparing them to the woeful Pelicans or Rockets. Even OKC has won back-to-back games.

Summary: I don't think the Wolves have done enough to automatically deserve the benefit of the doubt. Someday that will change... but right now, it's more likely THIS is gonna be yet another long season.

Wow, that's a very compelling argument. The Wolves have sucked so they will always suck regardless of the talent on the roster. The sky is gray. Nine games is more than enough. We don't need the other 73. We've seen all we need to see. Pack it in, folks. Pray for better days in 2022, but just know that they're doomed too. Tear it down. Move locations. It won't matter, though. The damage has been done to this franchise. Woe is me!

Camden wrote:Wow, that's a very compelling argument. The Wolves have sucked so they will always suck regardless of the talent on the roster. The sky is gray. Nine games is more than enough. We don't need the other 73. We've seen all we need to see. Pack it in, folks. Pray for better days in 2022, but just know that they're doomed too. Tear it down. Move locations. It won't matter, though. The damage has been done to this franchise. Woe is me!

No reason to get huffy.

I'm just saying it's more likely this is not going to be a good season... and that proven teams with the same key players back are more likely to improve than the Wolves. That's not remotely controversial or a kneejerk reactionary take.

It's common sense.

The other thing you haven't taken into consideration Cam is strength of schedule. Based on the teams we have played and the number of home games, our poor start looks even worse than the record reflects. I mean, practically all of our games have been at home with plenty of rest. It's an embarrassing start to say the least and even the biggest pessimists among us didn't think we'd start this poorly given the easy early schedule. It only gets harder from here!

You do have to consider history. The Wolves "top" 2 players (DLO is debatable for sure as the 2nd best) are both perennial non playoff players. Both making it once in 6 seasons.

They start out the season versus a softer then avg schedule and are still losing.

Some optimism is there, the defense looks better, the offense and other players are shooting below if not far below avg.

I think in the end we've not seen either DLO or KAT become players that win night in and out. Sure the rest of their rosters have been poor to terrible for much of their careers, but at some point you have to consider that neither of these guys will be the best player on a perennial playoff winner either.

Do they make others better? I would say on DLO's case he's been mostly an ISO ball hogging chucker. Doesn't drive and finish well. He's basically a volume scorer and not efficient either. He's shown ability to dish, but we don't see it nearly enough.

KAT is a much better player. Is very efficient on offense. Yet his passing is fairly weak as well. He can score and does so well. Rebounds well. Is KAT making others better?

I would say neither player really makes others around them better which is a big reason why they haven't won consistently.

Both have been avg at best on defense as well. KAT again has been historically better on that end.

Now we have some hope in Ant. Who can drive, finish and dish. He has the potential to make others better, yet is still a little underperforming on the passing ability but is 20 years old. He still has a ways to go but his upside is a lot higher.

Q12543 wrote:The other thing you haven't taken into consideration Cam is strength of schedule. Based on the teams we have played and the number of home games, our poor start looks even worse than the record reflects. I mean, practically all of our games have been at home with plenty of rest. It's an embarrassing start to say the least and even the biggest pessimists among us didn't think we'd start this poorly given the easy early schedule. It only gets harder from here!

I understand strength of schedule. It's largely why I thought Minnesota could get off to a 7-3 start. As of right now, statistically, the Wolves have the hardest schedule remaining. All of that doesn't change the fact that there are 73 games remaining and Minnesota's roster has significantly underperformed in ways that they simply won't continue to do. The road to the playoffs remains difficult, but the Wolves also aren't completely off the rails.

There are an abundance of Wolves fans (not necessarily here) that are already giving up on the season in what seems to be a hyper emotional response to some disappointing losses. If we think logically, however, the reasons for optimism that existed before the season still remain with 89-percent of the schedule to go. Seems weird to turn your back on everything because of nine games. Oh, well.

Camden wrote:

Q12543 wrote:The other thing you haven't taken into consideration Cam is strength of schedule. Based on the teams we have played and the number of home games, our poor start looks even worse than the record reflects. I mean, practically all of our games have been at home with plenty of rest. It's an embarrassing start to say the least and even the biggest pessimists among us didn't think we'd start this poorly given the easy early schedule. It only gets harder from here!

I understand strength of schedule. It's largely why I thought Minnesota could get off to a 7-3 start. As of right now, statistically, the Wolves have the hardest schedule remaining. All of that doesn't change the fact that there are 73 games remaining and Minnesota's roster has significantly underperformed in ways that they simply won't continue to do. The road to the playoffs remains difficult, but the Wolves also aren't completely off the rails.

There are an abundance of Wolves fans (not necessarily here) that are already giving up on the season in what seems to be a hyper emotional response to some disappointing losses. If we think logically, however, the reasons for optimism that existed before the season still remain with 89-percent of the schedule to go. Seems weird to turn your back on everything because of nine games. Oh, well.

You mean that as new data makes itself available to us - in this case being 3-6 - that shouldn't erode at least some of that optimism? There is a difference between 0-0 and 3-6. At what point do you factor in the data? After 12 games? 15 games? 20 games?

I agree it's too early to blow things up or tank, but certainly one's confidence in this roster and coaching staff should be rightfully shaken. Hopefully they turn it around.

Q12543 wrote:

Camden wrote:

Q12543 wrote:The other thing you haven't taken into consideration Cam is strength of schedule. Based on the teams we have played and the number of home games, our poor start looks even worse than the record reflects. I mean, practically all of our games have been at home with plenty of rest. It's an embarrassing start to say the least and even the biggest pessimists among us didn't think we'd start this poorly given the easy early schedule. It only gets harder from here!

I understand strength of schedule. It's largely why I thought Minnesota could get off to a 7-3 start. As of right now, statistically, the Wolves have the hardest schedule remaining. All of that doesn't change the fact that there are 73 games remaining and Minnesota's roster has significantly underperformed in ways that they simply won't continue to do. The road to the playoffs remains difficult, but the Wolves also aren't completely off the rails.

There are an abundance of Wolves fans (not necessarily here) that are already giving up on the season in what seems to be a hyper emotional response to some disappointing losses. If we think logically, however, the reasons for optimism that existed before the season still remain with 89-percent of the schedule to go. Seems weird to turn your back on everything because of nine games. Oh, well.

You mean that as new data makes itself available to us - in this case being 3-6 - that shouldn't erode at least some of that optimism? There is a difference between 0-0 and 3-6. At what point do you factor in the data? After 12 games? 15 games? 20 games?

I agree it's too early to blow things up or tank, but certainly one's confidence in this roster and coaching staff should be rightfully shaken. Hopefully they turn it around.

In what world is 10 games enough to determine which way a season will go, especially to start the season? If you're confidence is shaken, then I think that's okay. If your confidence has completely dissipated, then I think that's an overly emotional response lacking an analytical approach.

Like I said, if the team was playing at their best and still losing two-thirds of their games, especially against inferior opponents, then the concern -- and overly pessimistic tone -- would be justified. That's just not the case. This team has severely underperformed both in a team context and in regards to individuals. It's just too early to be this down on the Wolves.

Any preseason optimism was from conjecture.

Any pessimism right now is from actual performance.

Which one carries more weight?



[Note: Again, it's not impossible for the Wolves to improve with 87% of the season remaining... but it's more likely that the Wolves are closer to what we're seeing than what many predicted they would be.]