I will be devastated if we fall to 4 in the lottery

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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
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Re: I will be devastated if we fall to 4 in the lottery

Post by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564] »

AbeVigodaLive wrote:
longstrangetrip wrote:Abe, I think we need to look both at stats and at the players' testimonials to really assess the impact KG had on the Nets bigs. Plumlee credits KG for his improved play, and his numbers with and without him back up his assertion. Further, Jarret Jack talks about how KG was constantly coaching Plumlee when they were on the court together (knowing KG's style, "coaching" may have bordered on "harassing" at times) And I saw the same thing in the Portland and Washington games I went to this season. KG never stops coaching when he is on the court, both on offense and defense, and it makes the other 4 players on the court with him better. That has to have something to do with why we outscored our opponents in the 5 games KG played in this year. Big deal, some might say. But a 16-win team outscoring its opponent in a certain subset of its games is a big deal. and needs to be analyzed.

One of the most frustrating parts of the season for most of us was watching our young guys (AB, Zach, Payne, Bazz, Dieng) acting like young guys...especially on defense. KG knows where they need to be on defense and isn't shy about telling them. How can that be a bad thing? KG's presence on the court is exactly what Plumlee needed, and it's exactly what this young team needs.




Nobody has ever claimed it's a bad thing.

But there are other factors. How much will Garnett cost? How much will he play? When he's not playing, does he stick around the team... or rest in California?

As for Plumlee... I'm sure Garnett helped him when he was there. But it's not like the guy was a puppet who only did what Garnett told him to do. The guy had to have SOME instincts. He had to be able to retain SOMETHING. .

When Plumlee was rolling, Lopez was on the bench. When those roles reversed, Plumlee played less and produced less. Both guys seemed to thrive when they were given heavier minutes. That seems relevant and can be backed up a bit. Talking about Garnett's impact is a bit more intangible or anecdotal or esoteric.

Yeah, we'll never know if KG had as much of an impact on Plumlee as he and Jarrett Jack said. But it's more difficult to argue that KG didn't have a significant positive impact on the Wolves in the five games he was on the court. They were more active on offense and defense, and they outscored some pretty good opponents...good enough for me.

The other issues you raise are how much will he cost, how much will he play, and where will he be on his off nights. Of those three questions, I'm only concerned about the second one. I think KG will get 2 years at anywhere between $5-10 million, and I don't think it matters much where that number eventually falls. Because of existing roster commitments and upcoming draft picks, I don't see how the Wolves can participate in the free agent marketplace this year, so 2015 cap space is not an issue. And the 2016 cap is projected to increase so much that cap space shouldn't be an issue that year either. It hurts Taylor's pocketbook if he pays KG 10 rather than 5, but I don't think his contract is an issue fans have to worry about.

So, we know KG will miss some games next year and that he was not on the bench for several games this past year, so where will he be on his off days next year? I don't think it matters much. I'm a big advocate of KG as an on-court coach and player developer, but I have never bought into the off-court mentoring narrative. That said, I still would like to see him on the bench during off-night games, because of the bench instruction he can provide to our youngsters. If you watched our bench last year, the young guys were like sponges absorbing what KG was telling them. And I think KG will be on the bench on his off-nights next year. I don't know for sure that he (and Flip) were faking the knee injury, but I have been told that he was quite sick with the flu for about ten days and that, having so few healthy players, Flip told him to stay away. KG is a basketball junkie and needs to be where the action is. If he's not sick, he will either be on the court or on the bench.

So the most important issue is this: How many minutes will he play? We don't know, of course, but if the Wolves are in a playoff race, I see KG playing 50-60 games for about 20 minutes per night. And that would be fine with me. I think he will miss one of the games in most of the back to backs, and a few other games just for rest purposes. But if Flip stays true to the 20-minute plan, I don't think KG will have to miss many games.
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AbeVigodaLive
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Re: I will be devastated if we fall to 4 in the lottery

Post by AbeVigodaLive »

I mentioned this when it happened: but if Garnett is NOT around all the time, will those young players tune him out a bit?

Garnett was working overtime in his very brief stint with the Wolves. He was talking A LOT and really embracing the mentoring role (or at least trying to create that narrative). But what's the shelf life of constant "mentoring/criticism" ... especially if Garnett picks and chooses when he's with the team or when he shares it?
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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
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Re: I will be devastated if we fall to 4 in the lottery

Post by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564] »

AbeVigodaLive wrote:I mentioned this when it happened: but if Garnett is NOT around all the time, will those young players tune him out a bit?

Garnett was working overtime in his very brief stint with the Wolves. He was talking A LOT and really embracing the mentoring role (or at least trying to create that narrative). But what's the shelf life of constant "mentoring/criticism" ... especially if Garnett picks and chooses when he's with the team or when he shares it?


I agree there's some risk here. I think the young players won't have a problem with the Aging Warrior taking a game off now and then. But if they're busting their asses, and KG isn't even showing up, there may be some resentment. As I said above, I think KG's absence this year was due to his flu and I think he will be on the bench on his off nights next year. But if KG proves me wrong and decides to start skipping games, Flip needs to step in and explain to KG what he is being paid for.
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khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]
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Re: I will be devastated if we fall to 4 in the lottery

Post by khans2k5 [enjin:6608728] »

Mikkeman wrote:
khans2k5 wrote:
So what's the plan when his God-given gift wanes as Wiggins is hitting his prime? That's why I am saying it's just not the right time. Best case scenario Wiggins is like Anthony Davis and is leading our team in year 3. Then DJ makes sense because you have an emerging Wiggins and DJ under 30. What if Wiggins doesn't become that guy until he's 23? DJ's now over 30 and big guys only age gracefully when they actually have basketball skills beyond athleticism to fall back on. So in that scenario DJ in his prime helps you maybe be a bottom 8 playoff team and you lose picks due to trades being carried out or have low picks to get Wiggins elite help for his prime years now. I'd be perfectly fine with this deal in 3-4 years if we got the next DJ at 26 to play in his prime with Wiggins at 23. It just doesn't make sense to make the move now. That's why Lebron picked Love over Wiggins. Lebron needs to win now, not wait for Wiggins to develop and be a star with him because it's too late in that scenario. We need to do the opposite. We need to develop now and get the pieces like DJ in 2-3 years when we have guys who can win. Making the move now is too early.

If Wiggins is as good as myself and others think he can become we have 2 drafts left of high picks to do this right and that's it. We're talking about a top 4 pick and most likely Towns to make this deal happen. I don't want a guy back with as big of limitations offensively as DJ has when Towns projects to do slightly less defensively and in rebounds but gives you more options on offense. Did the Thunder say Durant showed promise so we should trade our pick that ended up to be Westbrook for a known commodity? It's a risk, but trading for DJ is a cap on the potential we have moving forward. You either take the risk or the cap.


Tyson Chandler has quite similar game than DJ. He is currently 32 and just had his best year at least offensively. He has also had quite a lot injuries. So I think we can expect that Jordan will be pretty effective at least next 6 years.

You gave Oklahoma as an example about keeping their picks to build with young talent. What about Portland? Do you think that they would be currently better if they would have traded Oden for some known commodity?


If they trade Oden for a known commodity that means no Lillard so I guess that entirely depends on the known commodity. They've had a few years now of really good teams with Aldridge and Lillard. Hard to say if they pair Aldridge with a DJ type center they do much better if they do be better. They got unlucky with injuries, but a Roy, Aldridge, Oden team would have been formidable in the West had it had better injury luck. How about GS? If you change one draft of theirs do they still come out with Steph, Thompson, Green and Barnes. Unlikely. Portland had bad luck with Oden, but him and Roy not being able to play at all helped them get Lillard down the line. You can't make moves out of fear of anything like injury or underperformance which are out of your hands as a GM. It's your job to make the best long-term moves for the franchise and from the looks of it 1 team paid the price because of injuries out of their hands.

GS- Steph, Klay, Green, Barnes
WAS- Wall, Beal, Porter
ATL- Horford, Teague
CHI- Rose, Noah, Butler
SA- Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Kawhi
OKC-Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Adams
TOR- Derozan, Jonas, Ross
LAC- Griffin, DJ, used Eric Gordon as centerpiece of CP3 trade
POR- Aldridge, Lillard, Batum

Look how many teams have drafted their top players or 2/3 in some cases. Most have traded for players that fit around those top guys, but their foundations were still laid out through the draft. We need our top 2 and then we can trade for a guy like DJ and you don't have many better chances for a top 2 guy than a top 4 pick. We're not in a market that can compete with the Rockets, Mavericks, Heat, Lakers, Celtics and Knicks of the world for free agents or to have stars force their hand here so you have to draft those top 2-3 pieces yourself and make savy moves like the Millsap's and Randolph's to fill around your top guys.
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Coolbreeze44
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Re: I will be devastated if we fall to 4 in the lottery

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My biggest worry is how much KG is going to get paid. We all know he isn't going to play a very large percentage of the minutes. Flip has to be judicious in dealing with this.
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TheGrey08
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Re: I will be devastated if we fall to 4 in the lottery

Post by TheGrey08 »

Mikkeman wrote:
Tyson Chandler has quite similar game than DJ. He is currently 32 and just had his best year at least offensively. He has also had quite a lot injuries. So I think we can expect that Jordan will be pretty effective at least next 6 years.

You gave Oklahoma as an example about keeping their picks to build with young talent. What about Portland? Do you think that they would be currently better if they would have traded Oden for some known commodity?

Or maybe they could have made the smarter move and drafted Durant? Instead they went with the coveted big man type. That's one thing NBA teams fall victim to. They always covet and overpay guys that at or near 7 foot. That height is what had Oden consider at #1, but I think many thought Durant was the better player.
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TheGrey08
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Re: I will be devastated if we fall to 4 in the lottery

Post by TheGrey08 »

Q12543 wrote:
Right, if KG were free and didn't occupy a roster spot, hell yeah, bring him on board! If he costs us $5M for playing 25% of our PF minutes, I'm going to puke. At $2.5M I'll feel a little queezy. For less than $2M...I can probably live with that. We'll see how much Flip ends up shelling out....

Again, the alternative was to hire him this offseason as an assistant coach or player development consultant and saved the cap space and roster spot while still benefiting from whatever knowledge he can impart on the youngsters.

You'd have that big of a problem over 5 mill which is unlikely to impact our cap situation/free agency in any way? That is the key thing to think about here. Figure out the Wolves cap without Garnett. Now are they able to make any moves that signing KG to a 5 mill per would make impossible? I don't think there will be and we'd also have the MLE if we wanted to use it. Outside of unloading Pek's contract or Martin/Bud/Bennett there really isn't much salary I see coming off the books.

I just have a feeling the Wolves are going to give KG as much as they can without affecting free agency at all.
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AbeVigodaLive
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Re: I will be devastated if we fall to 4 in the lottery

Post by AbeVigodaLive »

TheGrey08 wrote:
Mikkeman wrote:
Tyson Chandler has quite similar game than DJ. He is currently 32 and just had his best year at least offensively. He has also had quite a lot injuries. So I think we can expect that Jordan will be pretty effective at least next 6 years.

You gave Oklahoma as an example about keeping their picks to build with young talent. What about Portland? Do you think that they would be currently better if they would have traded Oden for some known commodity?

Or maybe they could have made the smarter move and drafted Durant? Instead they went with the coveted big man type. That's one thing NBA teams fall victim to. They always covet and overpay guys that at or near 7 foot. That height is what had Oden consider at #1, but I think many thought Durant was the better player.


It wasn't only that height. Remember, Oden was considered one of the most promising (athletic and skilled) big men to enter the league in quite some time.

Oden went for 16 / 10 / 3 as a freshman to help his team reach the Final Four (title game?)... while shooting LEFT handed for most of the season.
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TheGrey08
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Re: I will be devastated if we fall to 4 in the lottery

Post by TheGrey08 »

AbeVigodaLive wrote:
TheGrey08 wrote:
Mikkeman wrote:
Tyson Chandler has quite similar game than DJ. He is currently 32 and just had his best year at least offensively. He has also had quite a lot injuries. So I think we can expect that Jordan will be pretty effective at least next 6 years.

You gave Oklahoma as an example about keeping their picks to build with young talent. What about Portland? Do you think that they would be currently better if they would have traded Oden for some known commodity?

Or maybe they could have made the smarter move and drafted Durant? Instead they went with the coveted big man type. That's one thing NBA teams fall victim to. They always covet and overpay guys that at or near 7 foot. That height is what had Oden consider at #1, but I think many thought Durant was the better player.


It wasn't only that height. Remember, Oden was considered one of the most promising (athletic and skilled) big men to enter the league in quite some time.

Oden went for 16 / 10 / 3 as a freshman to help his team reach the Final Four (title game?)... while shooting LEFT handed for most of the season.

Right, people wondered if he could be as good as Ewing, Duncan, etc. Also had some minor health questions. Point is the NBA at times greatly covets Center talent and rates it higher than an equally skilled wing or guard.

No doubt he could have been very very good had he not been plagued by injuries, but it's a huge what if, just like Portland drafting Durant or trading their pick. All huge what ifs.
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mrhockey89
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Re: I will be devastated if we fall to 4 in the lottery

Post by mrhockey89 »

AbeVigodaLive wrote:
TheGrey08 wrote:
Mikkeman wrote:
Tyson Chandler has quite similar game than DJ. He is currently 32 and just had his best year at least offensively. He has also had quite a lot injuries. So I think we can expect that Jordan will be pretty effective at least next 6 years.

You gave Oklahoma as an example about keeping their picks to build with young talent. What about Portland? Do you think that they would be currently better if they would have traded Oden for some known commodity?

Or maybe they could have made the smarter move and drafted Durant? Instead they went with the coveted big man type. That's one thing NBA teams fall victim to. They always covet and overpay guys that at or near 7 foot. That height is what had Oden consider at #1, but I think many thought Durant was the better player.


It wasn't only that height. Remember, Oden was considered one of the most promising (athletic and skilled) big men to enter the league in quite some time.

Oden went for 16 / 10 / 3 as a freshman to help his team reach the Final Four (title game?)... while shooting LEFT handed for most of the season.


Coolbreaz, are you reading this? This previous post by TheGrey proves we aren't the same person. What he says about Oden is something that I'd never utter in that he thinks Oden was drafted for size, and I think he was drafted #1 overall legitimately because he was a flat out BEAST at The Ohio State for the time he was healthy.

Oden, I think, would be right up there with Durant right now in terms of top NBA players if he would have been able to stay healthy. And he'd be every bit as impactful, in my opinion, as well. I believe his ceiling was right up there with that of Dwight Howard, and he had a pretty advanced game for a college player (much less freshman).

So I agree with Abe :)
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