Minnesota Sports Forum

I really like those deep dive stats Rap!

I'd to add a little more.

Ant's relative TS% - which is how much higher your true shooting is relative your positional league average - is at +4.2% which is a 2.3 percent jump and in 93 percentile. It's not an elite elite level - Shai's is +8.9 which is godly - but it's a huge jump in the right direction.

I found a ranking of NetEFF, which is the team's net difference between offensive TS and defensive TS.

The Wolves rank 4th here at +4.1
7th on defense: +1.7
4th on offense: +2.4

Fun stuff imo

This one is wild to me.

Over all game since the 24 season to present (postseason included), Julius Randle's TS% is 9.4% better without Ant on the floor, and 9.4% from 3.

No one else on the roster has such extreme difference, and almost all players shoot better with Ant than without. Naz has a drop of 1.6 --- interestingly the only other PF. Ayo, over a small sample, shoots 14.6% better.

Ant and Randle really don't seem to work together.... At all

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2026 1:17 pm This one is wild to me.

Over all game since the 24 season to present (postseason included), Julius Randle's TS% is 9.4% better without Ant on the floor, and 9.4% from 3.

No one else on the roster has such extreme difference, and almost all players shoot better with Ant than without. Naz has a drop of 1.6 --- interestingly the only other PF. Ayo, over a small sample, shoots 14.6% better.

Ant and Randle really don't seem to work together.... At all

Their net rating as a player pairing is +5.2 this season, which is not elite but solid. It's Ant's 3rd highest net rating player pair after Rudy and DDV.

Ant's top three two-man lineups in terms of net rating (minimum 1,000 minutes played together in regular seasons):

2023-24 Regular Season:
Ant/Rudy +8.9
Ant/KAT +8.9
Ant/SloMo +8.8
Playoffs:
Ant/Rudy +12.8
Ant/Jaden +8.3
Ant/Conley +7.4

2024-25 Regular Season:
Ant/NAW +6.9
Ant/Rudy +6.6
Ant/Naz +6.1
Playoffs:
Ant/Rudy +9.4
Ant/Jaden +8.4
Ant/Conley +8.1

2025-26 Regular Season:
Ant/DDV +9.3
Ant/Rudy +5.8
Ant/Randle +5.2


- The biggest common denominator here is Rudy. He's in literally every top 3 group despite he and Ant not having much synergy on offense. Goes to show how important Rudy has been on defense.

- Jaden doesn't show up in any of the regular season "top 3", but as we know both he and Ant elevate their games in the playoffs, so it's not surprising to see him in the playoff top 3.

- Naz shows up once here (last year's regular season) and has been a poor playoff performer in his career so far.

- I'm skeptical that DDV will be among Ant's top three pairings in the upcoming playoffs, as like Naz he has a terrible history when it comes to playoff net rating.

- Ayo is a big TBD of course, but for what it's worth, his net rating when paired with Ant so far this season is +7.7 in a pretty small sample of minutes. But the eye test is very encouraging and Ant's history when paired with Conley in the playoffs suggests good things to come with the Ayo/Ant pairing.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2026 7:51 am

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2026 1:17 pm This one is wild to me.

Over all game since the 24 season to present (postseason included), Julius Randle's TS% is 9.4% better without Ant on the floor, and 9.4% from 3.

No one else on the roster has such extreme difference, and almost all players shoot better with Ant than without. Naz has a drop of 1.6 --- interestingly the only other PF. Ayo, over a small sample, shoots 14.6% better.

Ant and Randle really don't seem to work together.... At all

Their net rating as a player pairing is +5.2 this season, which is not elite but solid. It's Ant's 3rd highest net rating player pair after Rudy and DDV.

That's fair. It's probably too far for me to say that work together at all, and I'm having a bit of tunnel vision there.

But again, I think it's worth highlighting that their true shooting numbers together aren't all that remarkable and also aren't as good as other pairings. TS is a good indicator of offensive efficiency and sustainability and these two just aren't that synergistic in this element.

For some reference; Murray and Jokic have a +14.3 ORTG this year, and +6.1 in TS above average when they share the floor. Ant and Ju have an ORTG of 4.8 and TS is +1.7 which is the lowest mark among starter pairings with Ant besides Rudy.

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2026 9:37 am

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2026 7:51 am

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2026 1:17 pm This one is wild to me.

Over all game since the 24 season to present (postseason included), Julius Randle's TS% is 9.4% better without Ant on the floor, and 9.4% from 3.

No one else on the roster has such extreme difference, and almost all players shoot better with Ant than without. Naz has a drop of 1.6 --- interestingly the only other PF. Ayo, over a small sample, shoots 14.6% better.

Ant and Randle really don't seem to work together.... At all

Their net rating as a player pairing is +5.2 this season, which is not elite but solid. It's Ant's 3rd highest net rating player pair after Rudy and DDV.

That's fair. It's probably too far for me to say that work together at all, and I'm having a bit of tunnel vision there.

But again, I think it's worth highlighting that their true shooting numbers together aren't all that remarkable and also aren't as good as other pairings. TS is a good indicator of offensive efficiency and sustainability and these two just aren't that synergistic in this element.

For some reference; Murray and Jokic have a +14.3 ORTG this year, and +6.1 in TS above average when they share the floor. Ant and Ju have an ORTG of 4.8 and TS is +1.7 which is the lowest mark among starter pairings with Ant besides Rudy.

Ant just isn't a great "two-man game" type of player. Jokic and Murray are probably the best ever at it.

I've always felt that Ant is the perfect fit for the Celtics offense over the last few years, which is (mostly) a 5-out offense predicated on hunting mis-matches and breaking down guys one on one, with ball movement coming as a result of breaking down the defense versus causing the breakdown. How much of a two-man game do Tatum and Brown play? Hardly none. But they each take turns breaking down whoever has the advantage and giving each other much-needed breaks. It's not beautiful basketball, but it works because the Celtics can really spread the floor with shooters.

I think the best fit for Ant offensively are guys that have some combination of handles, passing, and shooting. Conley (before this year), DDV, and Ayo all seem to check these boxes to varying degrees. Ayo may ultimately be the best of them all; time will tell.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2026 10:49 am

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2026 9:37 am

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2026 7:51 am

Their net rating as a player pairing is +5.2 this season, which is not elite but solid. It's Ant's 3rd highest net rating player pair after Rudy and DDV.

That's fair. It's probably too far for me to say that work together at all, and I'm having a bit of tunnel vision there.

But again, I think it's worth highlighting that their true shooting numbers together aren't all that remarkable and also aren't as good as other pairings. TS is a good indicator of offensive efficiency and sustainability and these two just aren't that synergistic in this element.

For some reference; Murray and Jokic have a +14.3 ORTG this year, and +6.1 in TS above average when they share the floor. Ant and Ju have an ORTG of 4.8 and TS is +1.7 which is the lowest mark among starter pairings with Ant besides Rudy.

Ant just isn't a great "two-man game" type of player. Jokic and Murray are probably the best ever at it.

I've always felt that Ant is the perfect fit for the Celtics offense over the last few years, which is (mostly) a 5-out offense predicated on hunting mis-matches and breaking down guys one on one, with ball movement coming as a result of breaking down the defense versus causing the breakdown. How much of a two-man game do Tatum and Brown play? Hardly none. But they each take turns breaking down whoever has the advantage and giving each other much-needed breaks. It's not beautiful basketball, but it works because the Celtics can really spread the floor with shooters.

I think the best fit for Ant offensively are guys that have some combination of handles, passing, and shooting. Conley (before this year), DDV, and Ayo all seem to check these boxes to varying degrees. Ayo may ultimately be the best of them all; time will tell.

I think you're right about the lack 2 man play in Ant's game, or at least in regard to a big.

Obviously it was a bit unfair to compare them to Murray and Jokic hehe.

I will say that Ant seems to find better synergy with other guard's and he's also very adapt at using Rudy's screens. So maybe I'm wish casting but I can't help but wonder if you subbed Rudy with another good screener but with better handle and play making. Like even a Hartenstein type, who can do just a little more in the short roll. Even more so, I really don't understand why a player with Julius's strength and speed can't do this!

Ant often, correctly, answers double teams with a pocket pass to Rudy with seemingly 50/50 results. Why is it that they can't ever do that with Randle or Naz? I'm asking seriously, I'm not enough of a ball guy to know the answer there. Are there good Xs and Os reasons or is it a poor skill match?

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2026 11:13 am

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2026 10:49 am

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2026 9:37 am

That's fair. It's probably too far for me to say that work together at all, and I'm having a bit of tunnel vision there.

But again, I think it's worth highlighting that their true shooting numbers together aren't all that remarkable and also aren't as good as other pairings. TS is a good indicator of offensive efficiency and sustainability and these two just aren't that synergistic in this element.

For some reference; Murray and Jokic have a +14.3 ORTG this year, and +6.1 in TS above average when they share the floor. Ant and Ju have an ORTG of 4.8 and TS is +1.7 which is the lowest mark among starter pairings with Ant besides Rudy.

Ant just isn't a great "two-man game" type of player. Jokic and Murray are probably the best ever at it.

I've always felt that Ant is the perfect fit for the Celtics offense over the last few years, which is (mostly) a 5-out offense predicated on hunting mis-matches and breaking down guys one on one, with ball movement coming as a result of breaking down the defense versus causing the breakdown. How much of a two-man game do Tatum and Brown play? Hardly none. But they each take turns breaking down whoever has the advantage and giving each other much-needed breaks. It's not beautiful basketball, but it works because the Celtics can really spread the floor with shooters.

I think the best fit for Ant offensively are guys that have some combination of handles, passing, and shooting. Conley (before this year), DDV, and Ayo all seem to check these boxes to varying degrees. Ayo may ultimately be the best of them all; time will tell.

I think you're right about the lack 2 man play in Ant's game, or at least in regard to a big.

Obviously it was a bit unfair to compare them to Murray and Jokic hehe.

I will say that Ant seems to find better synergy with other guard's and he's also very adapt at using Rudy's screens. So maybe I'm wish casting but I can't help but wonder if you subbed Rudy with another good screener but with better handle and play making. Like even a Hartenstein type, who can do just a little more in the short roll. Even more so, I really don't understand why a player with Julius's strength and speed can't do this!

Ant often, correctly, answers double teams with a pocket pass to Rudy with seemingly 50/50 results. Why is it that they can't ever do that with Randle or Naz? I'm asking seriously, I'm not enough of a ball guy to know the answer there. Are there good Xs and Os reasons or is it a poor skill match?

Randle and Naz aren't big on rolling to the rim because neither are lob threats, which takes out an option on how to react to the defensive scheme. The ideal roller can both catch a pocket pass AND a lob for the dunk. One of those isn't available in their case.

That being said, I've often seen Conley run "pick and roll lite" with these guys as a way to initiate the offense, where they set the screen and then Conley gets the ball back to them almost immediately, but still on the perimeter. Ant has done a little of this too when Finch calls for Randle to get the ball. It gives them a bit more space to operate in since their defender is helping on Conley(or Ant) for a second or two. But they almost never roll all the way to the rim. Rudy and Joan are really the only two pure rim-runners on the team.

Since joining the Wolves, Ayo has a net rating of:

+7.5 (114.6 / 107.1)

As a Bull the numbers stood at:

-3.8 (111.1 / 114.8)

An 11 point swing in 19 games. Depending on how this season finishes out, is this the greatest trade deadline move in franchise history?

Alan Horton
@WolvesRadio
With last night's road victory...

MIN winning road records last 3 seasons -- 3
MIN winning road records prev 19 seasons -- 0

Previous 34 seasons -- 3

Most double-doubles on 75%+ FG ever:

203 — Rudy Gobert
151 — DeAndre Jordan
139 — Dwight Howard
123 — Wilt Chamberlain