Minnesota Sports Forum

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2026 8:56 am

FNG wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2026 4:00 pm

60WinTim wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2026 2:40 pm

Yeah, this is my preferred route as well. It keeps the floor in place, gives Joan time to develop, and creates salary space to address the depth in the front court.

Yes, mine too...and I also think that is the route we are most likely to go. TC and Finchy have shown they are in 100% win-now mode with the offseason moves, and a raw soon to be 20-year old does not fit well in that scenario...no matter how good we might think he's going to be in 4-5 years (and I think very good).

Aussie has mentioned that 5 games is way too small a sample size to make any on/off conclusions with respect to Rudy and Joan, and I agree. My point is I would wager a lot that there will continue to be a sizable gap between the 2 of them by this measure as the season progresses. And I don't think the "playing with reserves" argument holds water...it ignores the fact that he is also generally "playing against reserves"! Joan has been typically out there with either Ant or Ball, Ayo, TJ and Lyles, and most of us continue to be quite high on Ayo and TJ...in fact, I think most of us would say a lineup that includes one of our powerhouse backcourt, Ayo and TJ is going to generally be better than the lineup our opponent puts out there at the first break. I don't believe we're getting outscored because Joan is playing with scrubs...the main reason we're getting outscored when Joan is out there is because (just like last year) our defense just isn't the same when Rudy sits. But I can't think of a better center for him to play understudy to as he learns the basics of NBA defense...keeping Rudy around for a couple more years will be far better for his development than throwing Joan into the deep end and asking him to swim.

FNG, Just coming back to this...sorry for the belated response to this, but referring to the highlighted statement above.....

Sometimes I'm not sure you understand the difference between Net Rating and Net On/Off rating or may be you just mis-typed in this case. We are NOT getting outscored when Joan is on the court. Even before last night's win, Joan had a POSITIVE net rating. The negative On/Off rating is because Rudy's Net Rating is even MORE positive than Joan's. The difference between their Net Rating (Joan net rating minus Rudy's net rating) is what equals the On/Off rating for Joan.

All I care about is that Joan is in the ballpark of neutral with his Net Rating and isn't a liability while on the floor. So far he's exceeded that expectation.

FNG wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2026 11:07 am

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2026 8:56 am

FNG wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2026 4:00 pm

Yes, mine too...and I also think that is the route we are most likely to go. TC and Finchy have shown they are in 100% win-now mode with the offseason moves, and a raw soon to be 20-year old does not fit well in that scenario...no matter how good we might think he's going to be in 4-5 years (and I think very good).

Aussie has mentioned that 5 games is way too small a sample size to make any on/off conclusions with respect to Rudy and Joan, and I agree. My point is I would wager a lot that there will continue to be a sizable gap between the 2 of them by this measure as the season progresses. And I don't think the "playing with reserves" argument holds water...it ignores the fact that he is also generally "playing against reserves"! Joan has been typically out there with either Ant or Ball, Ayo, TJ and Lyles, and most of us continue to be quite high on Ayo and TJ...in fact, I think most of us would say a lineup that includes one of our powerhouse backcourt, Ayo and TJ is going to generally be better than the lineup our opponent puts out there at the first break. I don't believe we're getting outscored because Joan is playing with scrubs...the main reason we're getting outscored when Joan is out there is because (just like last year) our defense just isn't the same when Rudy sits. But I can't think of a better center for him to play understudy to as he learns the basics of NBA defense...keeping Rudy around for a couple more years will be far better for his development than throwing Joan into the deep end and asking him to swim.

FNG, Just coming back to this...sorry for the belated response to this, but referring to the highlighted statement above.....

Sometimes I'm not sure you understand the difference between Net Rating and Net On/Off rating or may be you just mis-typed in this case. We are NOT getting outscored when Joan is on the court. Even before last night's win, Joan had a POSITIVE net rating. The negative On/Off rating is because Rudy's Net Rating is even MORE positive than Joan's. The difference between their Net Rating (Joan net rating minus Rudy's net rating) is what equals the On/Off rating for Joan.

All I care about is that Joan is in the ballpark of neutral with his Net Rating and isn't a liability while on the floor. So far he's exceeded that expectation.

No, I hear what you're saying, Q. I'm merely trying to slow down the "we would be better off with Joan in there than Rudy" train, which even some analysts I like are on. And I also wanted to counter the argument that Joan's numbers are hurt by having to play mostly with either Ant/Ball (pre-injury), Ayo, TJ and Lyles...the 4 players he is generally paired with are usually better than the reserves he is mostly playing against, so if anything, his numbers are helped by the rotations Finchy puts together.

I've been pleased with how Joan is developing, and sometimes throw things at the screen when Rudy fumbles. But our success this season is going to be based on dominating the minutes Rudy is out there and surviving the minutes Joan is out there...and so far it's mission accomplished. Through 6 games Rudy is a +68 ("dominating", and only topped by Jaden and Melo) and Joan is a +13 (second worst on the team to Bones, but more than "surviving"). And while Joan's offensive on/off numbers are far superior to Rudy's, the defensive numbers explain why we just don't look the same when Joan comes in for Rudy...-21.7 points per 100 for Rudy, +25.9 for Joan. Mirror images of each other, but overall working out just fine. Love being 4-2 with our best scorer missing 2 games and being not 100% for the other 4.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2026 11:46 am

FNG wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2026 11:07 am

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2026 8:56 am

FNG, Just coming back to this...sorry for the belated response to this, but referring to the highlighted statement above.....

Sometimes I'm not sure you understand the difference between Net Rating and Net On/Off rating or may be you just mis-typed in this case. We are NOT getting outscored when Joan is on the court. Even before last night's win, Joan had a POSITIVE net rating. The negative On/Off rating is because Rudy's Net Rating is even MORE positive than Joan's. The difference between their Net Rating (Joan net rating minus Rudy's net rating) is what equals the On/Off rating for Joan.

All I care about is that Joan is in the ballpark of neutral with his Net Rating and isn't a liability while on the floor. So far he's exceeded that expectation.

No, I hear what you're saying, Q. I'm merely trying to slow down the "we would be better off with Joan in there than Rudy" train, which even some analysts I like are on. And I also wanted to counter the argument that Joan's numbers are hurt by having to play mostly with either Ant/Ball (pre-injury), Ayo, TJ and Lyles...the 4 players he is generally paired with are usually better than the reserves he is mostly playing against, so if anything, his numbers are helped by the rotations Finchy puts together.

I've been pleased with how Joan is developing, and sometimes throw things at the screen when Rudy fumbles. But our success this season is going to be based on dominating the minutes Rudy is out there and surviving the minutes Joan is out there...and so far it's mission accomplished. Through 6 games Rudy is a +68 ("dominating", and only topped by Jaden and Melo) and Joan is a +13 (second worst on the team to Bones, but more than "surviving"). And while Joan's offensive on/off numbers are far superior to Rudy's, the defensive numbers explain why we just don't look the same when Joan comes in for Rudy...-21.7 points per 100 for Rudy, +25.9 for Joan. Mirror images of each other, but overall working out just fine. Love being 4-2 with our best scorer missing 2 games and being not 100% for the other 4.

I agree with your premise that by no means is Joan ready to replace Rudy as a starter, but I could eventually see him nibbling into some of Rudy's minutes as the season wears on.

We'll also see the On/Off Rating stuff smooth out a bit as the sample size gets larger, as the delta between the two already narrowed a bit after last night.

I'll post an advanced stats update once the Wolves have played 10 games and then update every 10 games after that.