Minnesota Sports Forum

AbeVigodaLive wrote:Maybe I missed something... too lazy to read it all...

But why would the Wolves want TWO more super young guys? Eventually, this team needs a veteran presence. They won't win nearly as much with all rookies and super young guys.

I'd rather have the potential talent in the 9-12 spots on a team (we have Prince and KG in the 8-10 range on the bench). Cheap contracts and they may develop. They still have roster spots to sign vets with 2 draft picks. If it is a vet for regular minutes they really only need to sign one as far as I am concerned. The real danger is to not draft youth on a team. Joe Smith still haunts me.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:Guys C'mon now. The #5 pick is worth a lot more than #16 and #23. And Lip for what it's worth, I don't like the idea of signing Deng either.

Cool, I assume your opinion that 5 is much better than 16 and 23 is subjective. But the data says otherwise. 82games.com analyzed 20 years of draft data, and based on the eventual careers of players drafted in various spots, assigned a value to each first round slot. Here's their analysis:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Their data gives the 5th pick a value of 21.1, but the combined value of 16 and 23 is 23.1. I can assure you that it's not just rubes like us that look at these charts...all GMs (and even owners) know about them, and use them to protect themselves to their bosses on deals. And as I have argued before, in a year like this where there are so many questions about every lottery pick but also consensus that the draft is very deep, the results may be even more skewed than normal. For that reason, Boston may not do the deal, since they are getting back less value. But here's why I think they might:

1) While combined value of 16 and 23 is higher than 5, 5 has a 60% chance of becoming a "star" while 16 and 23 only have a 5% chance of producing a star. Boston doesn't have any likely future stars on their current roster, and they really need one. The Wolves on the other hand have at least 2 future stars, and have a much greater need for depth than more stars.

2) Several pundits think Boston may trade the third pick for Okafor. If they do that, they will be more likely to want to replace that traded pick with another high lottery pick, even if they have to give up more value to get it.

LST, I totally disagree with the conclusions you draw from this analysis: It's a star driven league. If one guy can have roughly the same value as two, I'd take that one player every day of the week.

1995: #5 Kevin Garnett, #16 Alan Henderson, #23 Travis Best
2003: #5 Dwayne Wade, #16 Troy Bell, #23 Travis Outlaw
1987: #5 Scottie Pippen, #16 Christian Welp, #23 Greg Anderson
1996: #5 Ray Allen, #16, Tony Delk, #23 Efthimios Rentzlas
1998: #5 Vince Carter, #16 Bryce Drew, #23 Tyronn Lue
1988: #5 Mitch Richmond, #16 Derrick Chievous, #23 Jerome Lane
2010: #5 Demarcus Cousins, #16 Luke Babbitt, #23 Trevor Booker

John Stockton was by far the best pick ever taken at #16. The only other real notable one I can find was Ron Artest. At #23 you have no stars that I can find. AC Green, Bobby Jackson, Nikola Mirotic, and Kosta Koufas are some of the better names you have. In my opinion it's way more valuable to have a chance at a true star than get two guys who combined likely won't produce a high end starter.

82games.com would agree with you that you're much more likely to find a star at 5 than 16 or 23...their analysis found 60% of #5's became stars, and only 5% of 16's did. There's no disputing that, although I would charge you with blatant cherrypicking in the #5's you listed, without also including Nicholaz Tskitisholi and Jonathan Bender :(, .

And while I also agree with you that the NBA is a star driven league, I would argue that once you have 2 or 3 stars, finding solid rotation players becomes a more important priority. 82games analysis says it's more likely than not that you are going to get at least a role player or solid starter at 16 (60% chance) and 23 (70% chance), and having two shots at those odds is very attractive to me. If we were a team like Boston with no likely stars on the current roster, I would probably want 5 over 16 and 23...for Boston, Hield sounds better than Valentine and Bentis. But the Wolves' roster is substantially different from Boston's, and our greatest need right now is depth. With the way our roster is structured right now, Valentine and Bentis (or whoever you might like at 16 and 23) seems to have a lot more value than Hield.

Hopefully we aren't going to have another chance at drafting this high for a long time. I like the odds of getting a very good player, if not all star level talent at our #5 position. Personally I think we could use another potential star young player to go along with our core.

And sure I cherry picked the list I provided. But I left some off like Love who I thought might not make the grade with you. :d

Draft Dunn and be done! Or just "Dunn and done", for short.

(or whoever is left at #5 out of Dunn, Hield and Bender...)

If we could get a Rodney Hood at #23 then sign me up. He stats are less impressive than I expected but he is a nice player.

I get where LST is coming from but the reality is trading form #5 down to #16 is a lot. You should be getting a future first rounder or something pretty good for that. Sam Hinkie got a future first rounder for going down a couple of spots. I like having picks but #23 seems a little less valuable when there may be picks a little later in the first round teams just have to settle for cash or 2nd rounders because they have so many. #16 you could lose out on the guy/s you really want. If have to really be unimpressed with he talent at #5 (that's possible) to do that deal and like I said I LOVE lots of picks. Lol

60WinTim wrote:Draft Dunn and be done! Or just "Dunn and done", for short.

(or whoever is left at #5 out of Dunn, Hield and Bender...)

I try not to get excited about Bender falling. It's kinda weird. The other option that could come up is make a team pay a real premium to get one of those players. Of course if the Wolves really like one of the guys available you take them for yourself and see if you can make a deal to get a pick later if there is a guy you just gotta have in the late first or 2nd round.

thedoper wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:Maybe I missed something... too lazy to read it all...

But why would the Wolves want TWO more super young guys? Eventually, this team needs a veteran presence. They won't win nearly as much with all rookies and super young guys.

I'd rather have the potential talent in the 9-12 spots on a team (we have Prince and KG in the 8-10 range on the bench). Cheap contracts and they may develop. They still have roster spots to sign vets with 2 draft picks. If it is a vet for regular minutes they really only need to sign one as far as I am concerned. The real danger is to not draft youth on a team. Joe Smith still haunts me.

I agree that maybe the Wolves shouldn't exactly be actively looking to add more young guys hit they should keep their eyes open for talent. If you are looking at the draft and you are seeing a guy you really think can play even if they are 19 and you already picked a 19 year old what do you do? If you have reasonable means to pick that guy you pick them. Now that's ASSUMING there is someone you REALLY feel that's strongly about and you can get them. To me you add talent if it's there plenty of young guys have made and impact early in their careers in the NBA and they weren't all lottery picks. It's still a long shot but I don't like passing up good young talent ONLY because the team is so young. This team does need to add vets but there are enough possible open roster spots to do that and add 2 young players IF you feel really strongly about that 2nd guy.

This will probably be our last lottery pick (or at least our last top 10) for a long time, assuming Thibs is what we think he is and the team performs as it should. So I think it's important to make the most of our #5 pick this summer. Assuming Bender doesn't drop, we'll have either an elite long-range shooter with some slash in his game in Hield or an elite defender with playmaking ability in Dunn. Both are known to be fierce competitors and hard workers. Both are upperclassman with the experience and physical development to contribute right away. I think it would be a huge mistake for the Wolves to do anything with the 5th pick other than draft and keep one of these two guys or perhaps Murray.

We will have cap space this summer to add quality free agents. If we keep our FA power dry on any higher priced FAs like Noah or Deng this summer, then we'll have at least as much if not more cap space next summer. We'll have next season's February trade deadline as an opportunity to deal guys like Bazz and Payne. During the season the Wolves organization will have the chance to evaluate all our young guys under a top head coach as a good measure of their potential, how well they'll fit here long term and what we need to add. Among other things, we'll have the chance to see if Pek has regained anything close to his old form after supposedly successful surgery and extended rehab period.

I just don't see any compelling reason to trade our #5 pick or any of our core young players, including KAT, Wiggins, LaVine, Dieng, Ricky and even both Shabazz and Belly. In fact, the most sensible thing to do is keep them here at least through the first half of next season and this summer draft one of several talented nearly NBA-ready players who will be available when we're on the clock. My advice to Thibs and Layden regarding trade offers for our 5th pick or any of those core young guys? JUST SAY NO!!!

lipoli390 wrote:This will probably be our last lottery pick (or at least our last top 10) for a long time, assuming Thibs is what we think he is and the team performs as it should. So I think it's important to make the most of our #5 pick this summer. Assuming Bender doesn't drop, we'll have either an elite long-range shooter with some slash in his game in Hield or an elite defender with playmaking ability in Dunn. Both are known to be fierce competitors and hard workers. Both are upperclassman with the experience and physical development to contribute right away. I think it would be a huge mistake for the Wolves to do anything with the 5th pick other than draft and keep one of these two guys or perhaps Murray.

We will have cap space this summer to add quality free agents. If we keep our FA power dry on any higher priced FAs like Noah or Deng this summer, then we'll have at least as much if not more cap space next summer. We'll have next season's February trade deadline as an opportunity to deal guys like Bazz and Payne. During the season the Wolves organization will have the chance to evaluate all our young guys under a top head coach as a good measure of their potential, how well they'll fit here long term and what we need to add. Among other things, we'll have the chance to see if Pek has regained anything close to his old form after supposedly successful surgery and extended rehab period.

I just don't see any compelling reason to trade our #5 pick or any of our core young players, including KAT, Wiggins, LaVine, Dieng, Ricky and even both Shabazz and Belly. In fact, the most sensible thing to do is keep them here at least through the first half of next season and this summer draft one of several talented nearly NBA-ready players who will be available when we're on the clock. My advice to Thibs and Layden regarding trade offers for our 5th pick or any of those core young guys? JUST SAY NO!!!

Agree with this. I think we should keep this team together, including Bazz, Dieng, and Belly for as long as we can. Draft Buddy (not a Dunn fan but I could live with it), sign medium priced FA and call it an offseason. Don't need to exhaust all our cap space this summer.

Since we need a rebouder here is a list of the 5 best rebounders in draft.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2607384-ranking-the-best-rebounders-available-in-2016-nba-draft

Part of the reason I would trade down all of these guys but Simmons will be available later in the draft and I just am not sold on Dunn as much as some of you, but I see teams like the Kings, 76ers, and Bucks wanting him.