Minnesota Sports Forum

bleedspeed177 wrote:Projecting top 10 PFs for 2014-15

7. Thaddeus Young, Philadelphia 76ers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.8 | Win%: 58 percent

If the rumored trade does finally go down, you can see that in going from Love to Young, Minnesota would be losing about six wins of value from its starting power forward position. Young turned into a do-it-all performer toward the end of the Sixers' horrid 2013-14 season after Evan Turner was traded, showing heretofore unseen passing skills and using more possessions than ever. However, that's not his game on a good team.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11384089/nba-projecting-top-10-power-forwards-warp-2014-15

Good to see Young getting some love from ESPN. I'd like to read the whole article if possible and I'm interested to see who's rated higher/lower than him.

1. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 14.3 | Win%: 66 percent

Davis has already blossomed into the kind of player the Pelicans hoped he'd be when they won the 2013 draft lottery and, at 21, he can still get much better. Davis' offensive game exploded last season as he put up the usage rate of a high-scoring wing and the true shooting percentage of a solid, close-to-the-basket big man. Add it all up and Davis' 15.1 WARP ranked fifth in the league. The other players to hit that WARP before reaching age 22: Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Shaquille O'Neal and Tracy McGrady.

While Davis claims the top projection by our new methodology, this system does hurt him a bit because his real plus-minus (RPM) values, while positive, suggest his impact doesn't quite boost his teammates as much as his production suggests it should. Don't worry, that part of his game will come next, along with a lot of MVP votes.

2. Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 14.2 | Win%: 69 percent

Love's 20.2 WARP ranked third in the league behind James and Kevin Durant in 2013-14. The new methodology used for ranking purposes generates WARP scores a bit lower at the top end of the scale, but even though it's RPM-based that doesn't mean Love is penalized by an inability to impact a team's bottom line. His plus-6.4 RPM was elite, and he was positive on both ends of the floor. There are a lot of reasons Minnesota never made the playoffs with Love, but he was in no way one of those reasons.

3. Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 13.3 | Win%: 65 percent

In many respects, including both statistically and stylistically, Griffin has evolved little as a professional player. Which is mostly fine, as his 37.2 WARP over the past three seasons puts him ahead of 98.5 percent of all NBA players. Griffin's one weakness is his performance has generally dropped off in the playoffs. Not much, but a little. For L.A. to eventually break loose on a title run, Griffin needs to explode when he's needed most. When Chris Paul was out last season, Griffin raised his level of play, especially as a playmaker, so it's good to know he has more in reserve if it's needed.

4. Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.3 | Win%: 61 percent

Millsap was just as good last season in Atlanta as he was the season prior in Utah, which is plenty good, but for whatever reason he seemed to garner more attention after moving to Atlanta. His offensive arsenal evolved in Mike Budenholzer's system, as Millsap turned many of his midrange shots into 3-point attempts, which he converted at right about the league average. His usage rate jumped by 3.4 percent, which is why his true shooting percentage was stagnant despite the improved shot selection. Hopefully Millsap can ratchet up the efficiency with Al Horford back in the lineup. Even if he doesn't, Millsap is an extremely valuable two-way player.

5. Josh Smith, Detroit Pistons
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.8 | Win%: 59 percent

Smith has enough of a track record that his 1.6 WARP disaster from last season doesn't wreck his forecast going forward. He's still just 28, and healthy, so there is little reason he can't return to his days as a double-digit WARP performer -- if used correctly. That means putting a stop to habits like finishing 17 percent of his possessions with 3-point attempts, even though he made just 26 percent of them. One thing saving Smith's outlook is his RPM profile; it actually was positive on the offensive end and was again well in the black on defense. Stan Van Gundy will figure this out.

6. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.7 | Win%: 58 percent

Aldridge has had better seasons, but few seem to realize it after his volume shot up in the 2013-14 regular season and he left us with some breathtaking performances in the playoffs. He has to be careful, as his 30 percent usage rate is high for a big man, and his .507 true shooting percentage doesn't justify it. Not that it's that cut and dry. His offensive RPM was plus-2.6, and with his offensive arsenal focused on all those baseline face-ups, his turnover rate was very low. As long as Aldridge is impacting the team in a positive way, who's to complain?

Ibaka
8. Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.6 | Win%: 57 percent

This ranking seems low for Ibaka, who has put up 9.6 or more WARP in three straight seasons, and is still at an age (24) when his numbers should be expected to improve. The disconnect is a product of RPM, where he was plus-0.4 on the offensive end -- the first positive season of his career -- while his defensive RPM slipped from plus-3.5 to plus-1.9. The hidden narrative is that it seems like the more Ibaka tries to do, the less he helps his team. That's a trend worth watching.

9. Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.4 | Win%: 57 percent

With Faried eligible for an extension, there has been some debate about just how valuable his style of play actually is. There are legitimate reasons for the concern. He's turned into a high-volume offensive performer, and his percentages mostly justify that approach. He's good off the offensive glass and gets to the foul line, keeping his offensive RPM positive. However, his defensive profile is disappointing, and last season his RPM on that end sank to minus-1.6. The bottom line is that while Faried's style of play has evolved considerably over three seasons, his overall value has been stagnant.

10. Amir Johnson, Toronto Raptors
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.3 | Win%: 57 percent

Johnson is among the players benefiting the most by our reliance on RPM in the new ranking methodology. Johnson's 3.7 WARP last season was nothing special, but he was getting 29 minutes per game on a Raptors team enjoying its best season, so he must have been doing something right. Indeed, his plus-6.1 RPM was outstanding, and he split that up on both ends of the floor. In fact, he's been plus-3.2 or better on defense for three seasons running. He fits in well with Toronto's collection of underappreciated standouts.

Next five: Dirk Nowitzki, Ryan Anderson, Derrick Favors, Tim Duncan, Terrence Jones

Come on now, Nowitzki and Duncan are a combined 76 years old. The aging curves are what drags down their projections, though their level of play has never fallen off from elite. They're old, they're good and you shouldn't head to Vegas to wager that either one will indeed finish out of the top 10.

Also notable: Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic, David West, Zach Randolph, David Lee, Kevin Garnett

Some big names are projected to succumb to the ravages of age, and all have already shown signs of slippage. Mirotic, on the other hand, is just getting started and projects better than any other rookie to make an immediate impact.

Rankings methodology
The annual offseason position rankings offer a snapshot of the top players in the league by base position, according to the forecast quantity and quality of performance for the coming season. Players are ranked by wins above replacement player (WARP), an estimate of the number of wins a player adds to a team's bottom line above what would be expected of any easily acquired talent from outside the NBA. Players are measured for usage and efficiency on both ends of the floor, and these ratings are converted to an individual winning percentage. From there, WARP is calculated based on the player's winning percentage and forecast playing time for the coming season. Playing-time projections are based on recent seasons, health and role on the player's current team. Players are assigned a position according to where they appeared most often in their most recent NBA season, though subjective adjustments have been made for some players based on anticipated usage in 2014-15.

The underlying methodology of calculating the player efficiencies used in these rankings has changed since last year and now relies on real plus-minus methodology, with adjustments. Each player's offensive and defensive RPM is converted to efficiency ratings for each end of the floor. Those ratings are then evaluated for "direct" and "indirect" impact. Direct impact is composed of points scored and possessions used, as calculated from traditional box scores. Indirect impact uses RPM to evaluate how a player affects the possessions finished by his teammates while he's on the floor. RPM has been split in this manner for a couple of reasons. First, indirect impact has a higher season-to-season correlation and is less affected by player aging patterns. Also, splitting direct impact and indirect impact is useful for projecting how players will perform in new environments and in calculating team projections. For first-year NBA players, their SCHOENE projection is used as their WARP projection in these rankings.

Thanks for posting I agree with AD #1 although he has to prove it but I think he will. Honestly if Thad is even say #15 PF in the NBA next year that's a pretty good deal.

"@WojYahooNBA 33s
As @JerryZgoda 1st reported, Minny's Luc Mbah a Moute, Alexey Shved and Heat '15 1st-rounder go to 76ers for Thad Young. Deal done Saturday."

We just got Thad Young for pennies on the dollar. Flip is a winner.

Camden wrote:"@WojYahooNBA 33s
As @JerryZgoda 1st reported, Minny's Luc Mbah a Moute, Alexey Shved and Heat '15 1st-rounder go to 76ers for Thad Young. Deal done Saturday."

We just got Thad Young for pennies on the dollar. Flip is a winner.

agreed, also I know you don't like Bennett but we can know see if bennett can be the future PF, I actually Love that Bennett will be our backup PF.

Hell of a job Flip

IF those are the details, this is a super solid, multi level and layered deal! He has masterfully handled not only the media, but alos Love and the Cav's and 76ers. I am impressed with Flip on this, he is playing chess, and Mchale and Kahn were notorious for playing checkers.

This is pretty much the best case scenario that I thought was reasonable. Super excited.

yeah buddy

Not only will there be potential for the future, but we should be more competitive than even I thought we would be this season.