Minnesota Sports Forum

mrhockey89 wrote:

TeamRicky wrote:
Murray is nothing like Winslow or Marion. In fact, almost the exact opposite. I loved Winslow last year and have been a big Marion fan because they are two way players with many tools. Murray is someone I don't want us to draft because he is pretty much a one trick pony and his three point shooting was only 32% (NBA 3 point line) when he played for Team Canada. He is also slow, short armed and didn't seem to put much energy on defense. He also had more turnovers than assists (I'd trust Tyus at PG before him).

I noticed you omitted Dragan Bender. I think he'd be a great fit on this team, but I like 1-4 too. So as long as we get one of Ingram, Simmons, Bender, Hield or Dunn, I'll be happy.

I'm not sure you read my post very thoroughly. I didn't say Murray is just like Shawn Marion, I said he could fill a similar type of supporting role on a top team. Marion's not an alpha and I don't see Murray as an alpha in the NBA on a top team either. But I think he's got good upside and can be more than just a decent starter. Both are smooth as well.

I disagree with you that he's not similar to a guard version of Winslow though. I'll concede on the defender aspect to their games however. However you're crazy if you think he's a one trick pony. A guy that can get to the hoop and finish with ease and a silky smooth shooting stroke are two right there. Plus he has a solid basketball IQ. On offense, he resembles Bradley Beal a bit to me, and that's not a bad thing (figured you'd prefer an apples to apples comparison as opposed to my role comparisons from before).

As for Bender, he was left out on purpose. I think if we're going to go after a big, I want to have complete confidence that he'll be dominant on the defensive end. Bender is going to get bullied down low early in his career in my opinion, and if he's not a good rebounder now, he's not likely to become one with the Wolves, and that's something we could use. I also really am not wanting a perimeter big right now, and from what I've seen and read, that's a big part of his game. Going further, unless there's a big that's got all the production and tools to be a surefire stud at the next level, I feel like you can get quality defensive bigs deeper in the draft. (see Marc Gasol, Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan, Rudy Gobert, etc)

Murray has shown the ability to score in college with range, but I didn't see much else in his game. By the way, I wasn't that impressed with him when he played for Team Canada (I watched all the games) and his three point shooting was 32% (which equates to the NBA line). I watched him get to the hoop and I have concerns about him at the next level. When I watched him he had trouble with tall defenders and he's not very quick. I think he'll still be able to shoot 3s, but less than 40% and will have a hard time scoring at the hole. At best he's a good scorer with little else to contribute. But we don't need another scorer as much as a two way player who can contribute good defense. Bringing in a defensively challenged guy that will take shots away from our core guys is not the best way to go.

monsterpile wrote:

TheFuture wrote:

60WinTim wrote:I don't think there is a single franchise in the NBA that would consider trading KAT for any one. What he was able to do as a rookie was so damn impressive. And when you consider the number of years you control his future...

I agree, KAT likely holds the most value in the NBA. It was amusing seeing 6er fans argue against the trade though. There was a whole lot of people stating that both Embiid and Simmons will be better than Towns. Good luck with that. The post about Philly trading their whole team for Towns was more realistic.

I'm not sure that I would trade Towns for the Sixers who roster AND all those picks (if all that was even possible) they accumulated plus their #1 pick. That's sort of extreme but Towns is that good.

I know we're just playing around here, but as much as I love KAT, I am trading him (and Pek and Payne to make the dollars work) for "portions" of their roster and picks. I'm taking Embiid, Noel, Okafor, Covington, Smith and the picks. Trade Okafor to Denver for the 3rd pick, draft Simmons #1, Bender #3, Hield #5, Ben Bentil #24 and Thon Maker #26. Trade Bazz for a future 2nd, and let KG and Rudez go. Send Bender and Maker to the D League for awhile until they seem ready for the NBA

Embiid/Noel/Maker
Gorgui/Belly/Bentil/Bender
Simmons/Covington
Wig/LaVine/Hield
Rubio/Smith/Jones

That might be a pretty good team for Thibs to coach!

longstrangetrip wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

TheFuture wrote:

60WinTim wrote:I don't think there is a single franchise in the NBA that would consider trading KAT for any one. What he was able to do as a rookie was so damn impressive. And when you consider the number of years you control his future...

I agree, KAT likely holds the most value in the NBA. It was amusing seeing 6er fans argue against the trade though. There was a whole lot of people stating that both Embiid and Simmons will be better than Towns. Good luck with that. The post about Philly trading their whole team for Towns was more realistic.

I'm not sure that I would trade Towns for the Sixers who roster AND all those picks (if all that was even possible) they accumulated plus their #1 pick. That's sort of extreme but Towns is that good.

I know we're just playing around here, but as much as I love KAT, I am trading him (and Pek and Payne to make the dollars work) for "portions" of their roster and picks. I'm taking Embiid, Noel, Okafor, Covington, Smith and the picks. Trade Okafor to Denver for the 3rd pick, draft Simmons #1, Bender #3, Hield #5, Ben Bentil #24 and Thon Maker #26. Trade Bazz for a future 2nd, and let KG and Rudez go. Send Bender and Maker to the D League for awhile until they seem ready for the NBA

Embiid/Noel/Maker
Gorgui/Belly/Bentil/Bender
Simmons/Covington
Wig/LaVine/Hield
Rubio/Smith/Jones

That might be a pretty good team for Thibs to coach!

Nope I was thinking you were going to make a good case but looking at that really I would still rather have Towns and there are future picks I said would be part of the deal like the Lakers pick. Part of that is because we have plenty of talent already and we don't have to add much more talent than we already have. Would you trade a 20 year old Tim Duncan for what may turn into a bunch of good players? No. 2 years from now Towns is highly likely to be a top 5 player maybe even higher. I'll keep that thanks.

Bender would be the best pick if we could get him. A 7' stretch 4 who protects the rim. The best part is he doesn't have to come here and be a top option right off the bat. He can actually develop on our team which is going to be best for his chances to succeed. I think Bender and Dunn are the best potential 2 way guys on the board when we draft.

monsterpile wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

TheFuture wrote:

60WinTim wrote:I don't think there is a single franchise in the NBA that would consider trading KAT for any one. What he was able to do as a rookie was so damn impressive. And when you consider the number of years you control his future...

I agree, KAT likely holds the most value in the NBA. It was amusing seeing 6er fans argue against the trade though. There was a whole lot of people stating that both Embiid and Simmons will be better than Towns. Good luck with that. The post about Philly trading their whole team for Towns was more realistic.

I'm not sure that I would trade Towns for the Sixers who roster AND all those picks (if all that was even possible) they accumulated plus their #1 pick. That's sort of extreme but Towns is that good.

I know we're just playing around here, but as much as I love KAT, I am trading him (and Pek and Payne to make the dollars work) for "portions" of their roster and picks. I'm taking Embiid, Noel, Okafor, Covington, Smith and the picks. Trade Okafor to Denver for the 3rd pick, draft Simmons #1, Bender #3, Hield #5, Ben Bentil #24 and Thon Maker #26. Trade Bazz for a future 2nd, and let KG and Rudez go. Send Bender and Maker to the D League for awhile until they seem ready for the NBA

Embiid/Noel/Maker
Gorgui/Belly/Bentil/Bender
Simmons/Covington
Wig/LaVine/Hield
Rubio/Smith/Jones

That might be a pretty good team for Thibs to coach!

Nope I was thinking you were going to make a good case but looking at that really I would still rather have Towns and there are future picks I said would be part of the deal like the Lakers pick. Part of that is because we have plenty of talent already and we don't have to add much more talent than we already have. Would you trade a 20 year old Tim Duncan for what may turn into a bunch of good players? No. 2 years from now Towns is highly likely to be a top 5 player maybe even higher. I'll keep that thanks.

Kind of a fun discussion, monster. What you're saying is you wouldn't trade Towns for this year's first pick (Simmons), last year's 3rd pick (Okafor), 2014 3rd pick (Embiid), 2013 6th pick (Noel), a back-up PG who put up 15-7-4 last year, a 3 and D 6'9" SF (Covington) and 2 more first round picks from this year. That team would have defense, athletes, rebounding, outside shooting and outstanding depth...you gotta make that trade!

But your Duncan question is a good one, so I looked up the corresponding picks in the years before and after he was drafted. The haul would be Sharone Wright, Jerry Stackhouse, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Chauncy Billups, and the 1st, 24th and 26th picks in the 1998 draft...which turned out to be Felipe Lopez, Sam Jacobson and.......................................................................................................








Michael Olowokandi...OK, monster, you win this argument!

khans2k5 wrote:Bender would be the best pick if we could get him. A 7' stretch 4 who protects the rim. The best part is he doesn't have to come here and be a top option right off the bat. He can actually develop on our team which is going to be best for his chances to succeed. I think Bender and Dunn are the best potential 2 way guys on the board when we draft.

I've been trying to research Bender, khans, especially since some mocks have him available at 5. At first I was excited about the prospect of him dropping based on the hype. But after watching some video, I wasn't so sure. I loved his ability to run the court, and he appears to be a terrific passer. And his length and footwork make him potentially a great defender. But I can't find much video of him doing anything inside. He seems to only hang around the perimeter shooting open threes, and while the highlights show a lot of makes, he's only around 25% lifetime and his shooting stroke needs some work. I recognize he's only 18 years old, but you'd like to have more to go on than 2 PPG and just over 1 RPG in only 10 MPG, especially since we're not going to be able to work him out. I mean really...if he was ready at all to contribute, wouldn't he be scoring more than 2 PPG for Maccabi? Trevor Mbakwe is almost averaging a double double for them.

I was really high on Porzingis last year and surprised when he dropped to 4, but there was so much more relevant video available for him...this is a different situation. Bender may turn out to be a great player, but I'm not smart enough to come to that conclusion based on available information. Some team will be taking a very high risk with potentially a high reward.

It's a little rose colored glasses of a scouting report on Bender, but if it's true he's the perfect fit next to Towns.

What are Dragan Bender's strengths?

Kevin Pelton: Chad, there's one top-10 prospect we've yet to discuss this season: Croatian forward Dragan Bender, who is currently fifth on your big board.

With the conclusion of the regular season in the Israel BSL, I used the ratio of performances by players like Bender who played both in Israel and either the Euroleague or EuroCup international competitions to translate Bender's Maccabi Tel Aviv stats to their NBA equivalents.

With projections for Bender in the NBA in hand, it's time to consider where he belongs among this year's top draft picks. What do scouts see as his strengths?

Chad Ford: He's (theoretically) a perfect big man in modern NBA offenses and defenses.

Offensively, Bender can stretch the floor (he shot 38.6 percent from 3-point range in Israel during the regular season), has above-average court vision and can finish at the rim. If you're a triple-threat 7-footer who can pass, shoot or drive, there's a place for you in the NBA.

Defensively, Bender is even better right now -- a versatile 7-footer who can guard multiple positions both on the perimeter and in the paint. He has the physical tools, the basketball skills and the relentless motor to be a Swiss Army knife in the NBA.

Pelton: Beyond the shooting, the versatility you mention stands out in Bender's translated statistics. As compared to power forwards in the draft, he rates as above average in assist, steal and block rates. In fact, his block percentage ranked fourth in the BSL, and two of the players ahead of him (Hamady N'Diaye and Mickell Gladness) are centers who previously played in the NBA.

In addition to that, it's important to mention Bender's age as a strength. He managed to hold his own in a competitive Israeli league despite starting the season at age 17. He's the youngest player among your top 100 draft prospects.

What are Bender's weaknesses?

Pelton: All right, where do the scouts see Bender needing more development?

Ford: Experience, piggybacking off what you mentioned with his age. Bender has gotten limited playing time this year for Maccabi. He's averaging 12 minutes per game, but his role is quite limited, especially offensively.

Bender's lack of significant development on the court over the past 18 months (he sat out last summer's FIBA Under-19 world championships because of a shoe dispute) makes him a bit of a wild card. With Kristaps Porzingis, scouts got to see him play a big role in the best league in Europe before drafting him. Bender is more theory than practice right now.

He also needs to get stronger. He's tough and plays really hard, but he'll get pushed around at first in the NBA.

Pelton: That lack of strength shows up a couple of places in Bender's statistics. His foul rate is astronomical -- nearly seven per 36 minutes. And though Bender has been pretty good on the offensive glass, his translated defensive rebound percentage would be poor for a small forward, let alone a 7-foot-1 big man.

You're also right about Bender's small role. He's used on 16.9 percent of Maccabi's plays, which translates to a tiny usage rate in the NBA. Lastly, in part because Bender was spacing the floor, he rarely got to the free throw line.

Is Kristaps Porzingis the best NBA comparison for Bender? Joe Robbins/Getty Images
How does Bender compare to Porzingis?

Pelton: Given the success the aforementioned Porzingis enjoyed as a rookie, and their physical similarity, comparisons between the two players are inevitable. How does Bender compare as a draft prospect? And if not Porzingis, who might be a good comparison for Bender?

Ford: It's a sexy comparison. They're both 7-footers with great motors and versatile skill sets.

But there are differences. Porzingis is a better athlete and shot-blocker and came with much more experience. Bender is arguably a more versatile defender, better shooter and better passer. Most of the international scouts I've spoken with think Porzingis is a better prospect -- though Bender has his fans.

Bender loves a Toni Kukoc comp. That's his hero. But he's not as skilled offensively.

I'm not sure he has an ideal comp. Perhaps the closest I can come is a much bigger Draymond Green. Same versatility on both ends. Similar motor and athleticism. Just a lot taller and skinnier.

Pelton: Agreed on all counts regarding Bender and Porzingis. They're different players.

Bender has broader perimeter skills. We didn't see his playmaking much for Maccabi, given his limited role, but Bender's performance for Croatia in the 2014 FIBA U-18 European Championships is instructive. He averaged 4.9 assists, third among all players.

Because Porzingis was a year further along in his development, it's tough to compare the two players at the point they were drafted. But if we compare Bender to Porzingis in 2014, when Porzingis was the same age, the comparison is more reasonable -- and favorable to Bender.

His translated NBA winning percentage (the per-minute component of my wins above replacement player metric, or WARP) is .444. During 2013-14, Porzingis had a translated .389 winning percentage in the Spanish ACB. (He improved to .461 in 2014-15.)

As a result, Bender performs slightly better in my WARP projections, which factor in age and projected NBA performance. His 3.4 WARP projection is tied with Clint Capela for the best from a prospect in Europe since Ricky Rubio in 2009 (3.7), just ahead of Jusuf Nurkic (3.3), Porzingis (3.2) and Nikola Jokic (3.1).

My SCHOENE projection system has an equally difficult time finding a comp for Bender. Comparing him to NCAA prospects, no player has a similarity score of better than 90 at the same age -- which means there are no easy statistical comps.

Where does Bender rank?

Pelton: All right, so factoring that all in, where do scouts have Bender on draft boards? Has he dropped after getting buzz as a possible No. 1 pick last fall?

Ford: Most view him as an elite prospect in the three to six range. A handful have him slightly lower, in the seven to 10 range.

I'm not sure he's "slipped" all that much. It's more that both Jamal Murray and Kris Dunn made their case to be top-5 picks. Guards are in vogue, and Bender's lack of experience makes him a bigger gamble.

Nevertheless, I'm projecting Bender to go No. 4 to the Suns. Given their needs in the wake of the Markieff Morris trade, I think he's a great fit.

Pelton: I think there's a case to be made that even No. 4 is too low for Bender.

Factoring in his ranking on your big board, Bender's consensus projection is for 3.5 WARP -- second in this year's draft behind Ben Simmons. Nobody else is above 3.0, with Brandon Ingram at 2.9. Murray (2.6) and Dunn (2.3) are far below Bender.

While Bender is unlikely to help quite as much right away as the guards, particularly the 22-year-old Dunn, if teams are patient I think he's got a much better chance of becoming a star.

Based on Bender's projections, not only should the Boston Celtics be strongly considering him with the No. 3 pick, he also deserves consideration from the L.A. Lakers at No. 2.

For what it's worth, I live in Phoenix, I'm guessing if Bender is available to the Suns at #4, there's no way he gets past them. If Bender is not there for them, I also wouldn't be surprised if they went with Jaylen Brown. I really don't think they want one of the guards (Hield, Dunn or Murray).

longstrangetrip wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:Bender would be the best pick if we could get him. A 7' stretch 4 who protects the rim. The best part is he doesn't have to come here and be a top option right off the bat. He can actually develop on our team which is going to be best for his chances to succeed. I think Bender and Dunn are the best potential 2 way guys on the board when we draft.

I've been trying to research Bender, khans, especially since some mocks have him available at 5. At first I was excited about the prospect of him dropping based on the hype. But after watching some video, I wasn't so sure. I loved his ability to run the court, and he appears to be a terrific passer. And his length and footwork make him potentially a great defender. But I can't find much video of him doing anything inside. He seems to only hang around the perimeter shooting open threes, and while the highlights show a lot of makes, he's only around 25% lifetime and his shooting stroke needs some work. I recognize he's only 18 years old, but you'd like to have more to go on than 2 PPG and just over 1 RPG in only 10 MPG, especially since we're not going to be able to work him out. I mean really...if he was ready at all to contribute, wouldn't he be scoring more than 2 PPG for Maccabi? Trevor Mbakwe is almost averaging a double double for them.

I was really high on Porzingis last year and surprised when he dropped to 4, but there was so much more relevant video available for him...this is a different situation. Bender may turn out to be a great player, but I'm not smart enough to come to that conclusion based on available information. Some team will be taking a very high risk with potentially a high reward.

He is more risky but this draft isn't last year's draft either if you know what I mean.

Thanks, khans and mike, for the additional information. While I'm intrigued by Bender, I think Mike's take that the Suns take him if he's available at 4 (or Brown if Bender is gone) is really good news...I think those 2 guys are the riskiest picks in the lottery.