Minnesota Sports Forum

thedoper wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Latest Ortg/Drtg/Net Rating by player:


Jones - 111.3/102.6/+8.7
Butler - 111.8/104.1/+7.7
Gibson - 111.3/104.1/+7.2
Wiggins - 111.1/105.0/+6.1
KAT - 112.1/106.3/+5.9
Teague - 110.5/107.6/+2.9
Bjelly - 104.4/104.9/-.5
Dieng - 105.4/110.5/-5.0
Crawford - 104.4/112.0/-7.6

The starting unit is starting to gravitate closer together, which makes sense considering how many minutes they play together.

The biggest move here is KAT's defensive rating. Here it is by month:
October - 115.6
November - 106.4
December - 104.5
January (only 4 games) - 95.6

Holy crap, this is a really good sign. He's moved up on ESPN's Defensive RPM board too, albeit not quite as dramatically. He's in about the middle of the pack with a .85 D-RPM. While there is still a long ways to go, that is far better than where he has been in his prior two years.

Credit to KAT and the coaching staff that is working with him to correct some of his flaws. I'm not sure where his defensive ceiling is, but this is a very positive development for this franchise.

Is it also a good sign how much Wiggins Drtg has improved too?

Wiggins is less noteworthy for four reasons: 1) His defensive rating progress has been a bit less dramatic and lumpier than KAT's, 2) KAT has a larger impact on defense since he is our 5, and he was particularly bad to start the year, 3) Wiggins typically guards the lesser of the two wing matchups, so he is not tasked with nearly the same challenge as KAT or Butler, and 4) Unlike KAT, his D-RPM has not moved up that much, as he is still ranked 80th out of 88 players in that metric. KAT has moved from near the bottom to the middle of the pack.

Now do I think Wiggins is a better defender than, say, Jamaal Crawford or Shabazz Muhammed? Absolutely yes, which is why this silliness of bringing him off the bench doesn't make sense to me. But otherwise, I consider him fairly mediocre overall and he plays less of a featured role defensively than our Center, power forward, and other starting wing.

Jimmy Butler is now 3rd in the NBA in RPM and 1st in the accompanying category of wins. Not too shabby.

Tyus and Taj are pretty impressive with these numbers also. He has the the best DRPM of any PG. :)

After being at or near the bottom Towns is now 35th with a positive 1.00 DRPM which is quite the turnaround and puts him at 4th in RPM overall for centers.

https://fansided.com/2018/01/08/nylon-calculus-calculating-luck-adjusted-ratings/

On-off data is the most basic data available for tracking how a team performs when a player is on-court versus off-court. In the NBA, this is measured by comparing a team's net rating (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) when the player is playing versus when they are on the bench. Unfortunately, raw on-off data is incredibly noisy. Luck-Adjusted ratings allow for a clearer view of team performance with and without a player.

Wolves have 4 in the top 15.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lr1RTnBNNMrbhL0bxww25SBR2lZEQ_xAyjpuGD2KLBo/htmlview

Latest Ortg/Drtg/Net Rating by player:

Jones - 112.2/101.5/+10.6
Butler - 112.4/104.0/+8.4
KAT - 113.3/105.7/+7.6
Gibson - 111.4/104.3/+7.1
Wiggins - 111.2/105.1/+6.1
Teague - 110.4/107.9/+2.5
Bjelly - 106.7/106.2/+.5
Dieng - 106.5/111.5/-5.0
Crawford - 106.1/111.8/-5.7

- Tyus Jones just keeps expanding his net rating. You watch him and he sometimes struggles to create offense and hit open 3's, but good things just seem to happen when he's on the floor. He is 3rd on the team in offensive rating and first in defensive rating. Think about that....he plays a lot of minutes with Crawford, yet he still leads in defensive rating.

- KAT is the biggest mover here, as we are clearly an elite offense when he is on the floor and his defense has improved (sans the dumb Orlando game....).

- Teague....getting harder to see him as anything but a bridge starting PG to eventually Tyus taking over. It might still be another season, but I think eventually Tyus becomes our starting PG. Remember, many NBA point guards take 6 or 7 years to fully develop their offensive repertoire.Tyus WILL keep getting better in shot making. His defense is already more consistent than Teague's.

- Nothing else real notable here...Gibson has taken a bit of a dip lately.

Q... we saw it last night.

By the way, I know basketballreference has a weird Rating system... but for the record... Teague had a 63 ORating and a 133 DRating.

It's good to support the obvious eye test with resounding statistical support.

AbeVigodaLive wrote:Q... we saw it last night.

By the way, I know basketballreference has a weird Rating system... but for the record... Teague had a 63 ORating and a 133 DRating.

It's good to support the obvious eye test with resounding statistical support.

Teague is weird because he really does get a fair number of assists, but they seem to always come out of his ability to attack the defense off the dribble in a scoring position and THEN making the pass. Sometimes he just takes too damn long to probe and decide. By the way, Butler is similar. The ball sticks to these guys hands and their passes come near the end of their sequence versus early.

Jones (or Rubio for that matter!) tend to make the simple swing pass or head man pass. The tradeoff is they aren't as good at getting into the teeth of the defense and creating scoring opportunities for themselves. But if you already have a scoring savant Center and top dog wing, may be that is less important versus other teams that are heavily reliant on their PG to score.

Q12543 wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:Q... we saw it last night.

By the way, I know basketballreference has a weird Rating system... but for the record... Teague had a 63 ORating and a 133 DRating.

It's good to support the obvious eye test with resounding statistical support.

Teague is weird because he really does get a fair number of assists, but they seem to always come out of his ability to attack the defense off the dribble in a scoring position and THEN making the pass. Sometimes he just takes too damn long to probe and decide. By the way, Butler is similar. The ball sticks to these guys hands and their passes come near the end of their sequence versus early.

Jones (or Rubio for that matter!) tend to make the simple swing pass or head man pass. The tradeoff is they aren't as good at getting into the teeth of the defense and creating scoring opportunities for themselves. But if you already have a scoring savant Center and top dog wing, may be that is less important versus other teams that are heavily reliant on their PG to score.

For a guy who was down to do the Teague and a 1st for Rubio swap (still am), I think you are right Q that Tyus is going to be the point guard of the future for the timberwolves especially if he can continue to hit 3s like he did last night, that is huge for him and unlike Rubio I believe he can do that at a very consistent rate in the future also Tyus has a very good floater game.

For this year I am still starting Teague from here on out because I believe that when Teague plays good our ceiling is so much higher. I think Teague has had a good year and he is near his career high in all important categories this year with his lowest usage rating since his 3rd year. We can't forget also that we do have a better win % with Teague as the starter 23-14 (62%) and Tyus 6-4 (60%) and I understand that is not a big difference.

I think we have the perfect situation right now at Point Guard, we have a middle of the road starting point guard and I think the perfect back up point guard in Tyus. Tyus also has the potential to be the perfect "fit" for the future for these wolves. Something I would not said a year ago, so good job on Tyus, just needs to continue to hit his open 3s and if he does that, look out.

Also I was disappointed in Thibs last night with Teague playing so bad why not run Tyus for 25+ minutes, Teague can put up stinkers (what happens) and I wish Thibs would play Tyus more when Teague has those games because Tyus is capable of filling that gap.

kekgeek1 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:Q... we saw it last night.

By the way, I know basketballreference has a weird Rating system... but for the record... Teague had a 63 ORating and a 133 DRating.

It's good to support the obvious eye test with resounding statistical support.

Teague is weird because he really does get a fair number of assists, but they seem to always come out of his ability to attack the defense off the dribble in a scoring position and THEN making the pass. Sometimes he just takes too damn long to probe and decide. By the way, Butler is similar. The ball sticks to these guys hands and their passes come near the end of their sequence versus early.

Jones (or Rubio for that matter!) tend to make the simple swing pass or head man pass. The tradeoff is they aren't as good at getting into the teeth of the defense and creating scoring opportunities for themselves. But if you already have a scoring savant Center and top dog wing, may be that is less important versus other teams that are heavily reliant on their PG to score.

For a guy who was down to do the Teague and a 1st for Rubio swap (still am), I think you are right Q that Tyus is going to be the point guard of the future for the timberwolves especially if he can continue to hit 3s like he did last night, that is huge for him and unlike Rubio I believe he can do that at a very consistent rate in the future also Tyus has a very good floater game.

For this year I am still starting Teague from here on out because I believe that when Teague plays good our ceiling is so much higher. I think Teague has had a good year and he is near his career high in all important categories this year with his lowest usage rating since his 3rd year. We can't forget also that we do have a better win % with Teague as the starter 23-14 (62%) and Tyus 6-4 (60%) and I understand that is not a big difference.

I think we have the perfect situation right now at Point Guard, we have a middle of the road starting point guard and I think the perfect back up point guard in Tyus. Tyus also has the potential to be the perfect "fit" for the future for these wolves. Something I would not said a year ago, so good job on Tyus, just needs to continue to hit his open 3s and if he does that, look out.

Also I was disappointed in Thibs last night with Teague playing so bad why not run Tyus for 25+ minutes, Teague can put up stinkers (what happens) and I wish Thibs would play Tyus more when Teague has those games because Tyus is capable of filling that gap.

Agreed on all points. I'm not suggesting Tyus should start over Teague this year. I think that would create major discord. We've got a good thing going right now with two solid PGs. It just seems like Tyus Jones with a 37%+ 3 point shot is ultimately the better fit. He's not quite there yet.

Latest Ortg/Drtg/Net Rating by player:

Jones - 112.2/102.7/+9.5
Butler - 112.1/103.8/+8.3
KAT - 113.7/107.2/+6.5
Gibson - 111.8/105.5/+6.3
Wiggins - 111.7/106.5/+5.2
Teague - 111.0/108.8/+2.2
Bjelly - 109.7/110.1/-.4
Dieng - 106.5/110.6/-4.1
Crawford - 106.4/112.1/-5.7

- Things not fluctuating much as the sample size gets bigger and bigger. Tyus Jones will likely stay at the top, although I could see Butler eventually passing him. Impressive for Tyus though. Our offense and defense is very good when he's on the floor.

- KAT with clearly the best offensive rating. He needs more touches! Unfortunately, his defensive rating has slipped a bit along with a few of the others.

- Someone has to be 5th out of the 5 starters and that honor belongs to Jeff Teague. Of course he spends a lot more of his time guarding elite opposing PGs than Tyus does, so just some perspective on his soft D-Rating number.

- The bench simply not getting it done on the defensive side of the ball. I am especially disappointed in Dieng, who to this day still doesn't know how to stay square and wall up against penetrating guards.

KAT at career highs in all of the big shooting categories:

2 pt% - 59%
3 pt% - 43%
FT% - 84%
TS% - 65% (this is absolutely sick - Steph Curry/Kevin Durant territory).

Get this man more touches!