Minnesota Sports Forum

Q-was-here wrote:I'm a little shocked at how much guys here are lamenting the loss of these late first rounders. Let's look back at franchise history and go see how many of those late firsts turned into plus-level rotation players. Two? Three? Four may be? Certainly no stars.

And if we have to do a rebuild in three years because this experiment doesn't work, we'll have a massive expiring deal in Gobert, a still highly valued asset in KAT, plus Ant and Jaden. No one thinks we couldn't deal our way into replenishing those firsts and then some if we tore it down to the studs?

Gobert is a defensive superstar. Literally one of the best paint protectors to ever play the game. And durable (unlike Durant!).

I have my own doubts and trepidation about the trade, but I think some folks are making way too big a deal of losing these firsts. This isn't the NFL.

lipoli390 wrote:

Camden wrote:Ha! I empathize with the feelings you're having, Lip, and I wouldn't have made this trade either. That needs to be very clear and on the record.

While the future salary cap issues are extreme with Rudy Gobert on the payroll, and the war chest of assets is missing a handful of first-round picks, I truly believe that the upcoming season of Timberwolves basketball will be one of the best and most successful in franchise history -- a low bar to exceed, no doubt. The 2022-23 roster looks like the best and most talented that we've seen in a long time, and maybe ever. I can get excited about that even though I'm aware of what was given up.

In terms of value, I think Minnesota gave up too much for Gobert. Four first-round picks plus the rights to 2022 first-rounder, Walker Kessler, and more is a bitter pill to swallow. I mentioned that the quantity of firsts outgoing for Minnesota would likely have been lower had they been willing to include Jaden McDaniels in their package. That has essentially been confirmed by The Athletic. That's a mighty big detail in all of this and it places even more importance on his player development.

However, Gobert is an elite player in the NBA even though he's often cast aside in those conversations. He's undoubtedly a top-20 player in the league and a future Hall of Famer. The annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate (and three-time winner) is a legitimate team-changer, a ceiling-riser. We went from hoping for an average defense last year and being happy with middle of the ranks to now expecting a top-five defense next year. That's the Gobert effect. He just puts a lid on the basket whether he actually blocks shots, alters the attempt, or intimidates shooters from even challenging him. The impact I expect him to have on this team is insane.

Did Minnesota give up way too much? Yes, I believe they did. But if they make a couple of legitimate runs at the conference finals and beyond, will we look back and think fondly of this move? I tend to believe we will, especially because of how little winning we've experienced as fans of this organization. It's an all-in move with an aggressive front office supported by new ownership who appears to be results-driven and invested as fans of the product. They want to win as much as we do. When you take all of that into account I think you can talk yourself into enjoying the next couple of years. They might have to reshuffle some parts later on, but they likely went from a team that had a fifth-seed ceiling to a team that could be playing in the NBA Finals if things go their way. That has to mean something.

Good post, Cam. A thoughtful analysis that accurately captures the upside of this deal. I still dislike the deal, but I'll have to deal with it. :). Fingers crossed that our two bigs and Ant stay healthy. You and I agree that the Wolves gave up too much in this deal. I think we differ a bit on just how much better this deal made the Wolves. I'll have to ponder how much better this team is right now than it would have been with we Beverley, Kessler and Myles Turner, Capela or Richaun Holmes, all of them likely available for Beasley, Naz and maybe one future 1st. The Caesar's oddsmakers increased the Wolves championship odds from 80-1 to 50-1. That's a significant gain, but 50-1 doesn't seem anywhere close to the value the Wolves just gave up for Rudy. And note the beginning odds of 80-1 did not reflect any further acquisitions like Capela or Turner. One thing for sure is that the Wolves have less depth, a much higher risk profile and far less flexibility to adjust and recover from the trials and unforeseeable events that always come along.

I'm with you in questioning whether keeping McDaniels was worth giving up multiple additional picks. I guess we don't know how many additional picks were substituted for McDaniels, but I believe it was more than one of the four. And I'm a big McDaniels fan who's been preaching patience. On the other hand, he hasn't been more than a role player so far and he was the 28th pick in the draft. To keep him, we apparently gave up probably two if not three picks at 28 or better.

My final thought is that there's a rhythm to things and this deal just seems out of rhythm. I guess that's just another riff on my tone deaf theme. There was an edge to this team with Beverley and even Beasley. There was excitement building in the arrival of Kessler and the potential of Bolmaro. We had all our future first-round picks and some additional moves to make that would have been more measured but still exciting. Beverly gave this team a personality that was infectious among teammates. I don't know what our team's personality is now.

And one final question. If the Wolves suddenly decided they wanted to turn around and trade Gobert, is there another team that would give the Wolves anything close to what we just gave Utah? My answer is absolutely not. That in itself is telling.

Q-was-here wrote:I'm a little shocked at how much guys here are lamenting the loss of these late first rounders. Let's look back at franchise history and go see how many of those late firsts turned into plus-level rotation players. Two? Three? Four may be? Certainly no stars.

And if we have to do a rebuild in three years because this experiment doesn't work, we'll have a massive expiring deal in Gobert, a still highly valued asset in KAT, plus Ant and Jaden. No one thinks we couldn't deal our way into replenishing those firsts and then some if we tore it down to the studs?

Gobert is a defensive superstar. Literally one of the best paint protectors to ever play the game. And durable (unlike Durant!).

I have my own doubts and trepidation about the trade, but I think some folks are making way too big a deal of losing these firsts. This isn't the NFL.

Q-was-here wrote:I'm a little shocked at how much guys here are lamenting the loss of these late first rounders. Let's look back at franchise history and go see how many of those late firsts turned into plus-level rotation players. Two? Three? Four may be? Certainly no stars.

And if we have to do a rebuild in three years because this experiment doesn't work, we'll have a massive expiring deal in Gobert, a still highly valued asset in KAT, plus Ant and Jaden. No one thinks we couldn't deal our way into replenishing those firsts and then some if we tore it down to the studs?

Gobert is a defensive superstar. Literally one of the best paint protectors to ever play the game. And durable (unlike Durant!).

I have my own doubts and trepidation about the trade, but I think some folks are making way too big a deal of losing these firsts. This isn't the NFL.

WolvesFan21 wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

Camden wrote:Ha! I empathize with the feelings you're having, Lip, and I wouldn't have made this trade either. That needs to be very clear and on the record.

While the future salary cap issues are extreme with Rudy Gobert on the payroll, and the war chest of assets is missing a handful of first-round picks, I truly believe that the upcoming season of Timberwolves basketball will be one of the best and most successful in franchise history -- a low bar to exceed, no doubt. The 2022-23 roster looks like the best and most talented that we've seen in a long time, and maybe ever. I can get excited about that even though I'm aware of what was given up.

In terms of value, I think Minnesota gave up too much for Gobert. Four first-round picks plus the rights to 2022 first-rounder, Walker Kessler, and more is a bitter pill to swallow. I mentioned that the quantity of firsts outgoing for Minnesota would likely have been lower had they been willing to include Jaden McDaniels in their package. That has essentially been confirmed by The Athletic. That's a mighty big detail in all of this and it places even more importance on his player development.

However, Gobert is an elite player in the NBA even though he's often cast aside in those conversations. He's undoubtedly a top-20 player in the league and a future Hall of Famer. The annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate (and three-time winner) is a legitimate team-changer, a ceiling-riser. We went from hoping for an average defense last year and being happy with middle of the ranks to now expecting a top-five defense next year. That's the Gobert effect. He just puts a lid on the basket whether he actually blocks shots, alters the attempt, or intimidates shooters from even challenging him. The impact I expect him to have on this team is insane.

Did Minnesota give up way too much? Yes, I believe they did. But if they make a couple of legitimate runs at the conference finals and beyond, will we look back and think fondly of this move? I tend to believe we will, especially because of how little winning we've experienced as fans of this organization. It's an all-in move with an aggressive front office supported by new ownership who appears to be results-driven and invested as fans of the product. They want to win as much as we do. When you take all of that into account I think you can talk yourself into enjoying the next couple of years. They might have to reshuffle some parts later on, but they likely went from a team that had a fifth-seed ceiling to a team that could be playing in the NBA Finals if things go their way. That has to mean something.

Good post, Cam. A thoughtful analysis that accurately captures the upside of this deal. I still dislike the deal, but I'll have to deal with it. :). Fingers crossed that our two bigs and Ant stay healthy. You and I agree that the Wolves gave up too much in this deal. I think we differ a bit on just how much better this deal made the Wolves. I'll have to ponder how much better this team is right now than it would have been with we Beverley, Kessler and Myles Turner, Capela or Richaun Holmes, all of them likely available for Beasley, Naz and maybe one future 1st. The Caesar's oddsmakers increased the Wolves championship odds from 80-1 to 50-1. That's a significant gain, but 50-1 doesn't seem anywhere close to the value the Wolves just gave up for Rudy. And note the beginning odds of 80-1 did not reflect any further acquisitions like Capela or Turner. One thing for sure is that the Wolves have less depth, a much higher risk profile and far less flexibility to adjust and recover from the trials and unforeseeable events that always come along.

I'm with you in questioning whether keeping McDaniels was worth giving up multiple additional picks. I guess we don't know how many additional picks were substituted for McDaniels, but I believe it was more than one of the four. And I'm a big McDaniels fan who's been preaching patience. On the other hand, he hasn't been more than a role player so far and he was the 28th pick in the draft. To keep him, we apparently gave up probably two if not three picks at 28 or better.

My final thought is that there's a rhythm to things and this deal just seems out of rhythm. I guess that's just another riff on my tone deaf theme. There was an edge to this team with Beverley and even Beasley. There was excitement building in the arrival of Kessler and the potential of Bolmaro. We had all our future first-round picks and some additional moves to make that would have been more measured but still exciting. Beverly gave this team a personality that was infectious among teammates. I don't know what our team's personality is now.

And one final question. If the Wolves suddenly decided they wanted to turn around and trade Gobert, is there another team that would give the Wolves anything close to what we just gave Utah? My answer is absolutely not. That in itself is telling.

The only thing I'll mention or disagree with a bit is this. There were numerous reports of the Wolves looking to acquire Rudy, Turner, Capela and others. So that 80-1 was at least reflecting that a decent chance of the Wolves getting a defensive Center was priced in.

Had they stood pat maybe the odds drop to 100-1 or 120-1 instead of increasing to 50-1.

I've seen numerous national media reports and many pundits are grossly undervaluing Rudys impact on winning games.

The Wolves got beat by Memphis because they couldn't rebound the damn ball. They just acquired the best one in the NBA. Defense is not only about making a shot tougher, you need to also rebound. The Wolves couldn't do that. I'm happy we got the best rebounder in the NBA.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

Q-was-here wrote:I'm a little shocked at how much guys here are lamenting the loss of these late first rounders. Let's look back at franchise history and go see how many of those late firsts turned into plus-level rotation players. Two? Three? Four may be? Certainly no stars.

And if we have to do a rebuild in three years because this experiment doesn't work, we'll have a massive expiring deal in Gobert, a still highly valued asset in KAT, plus Ant and Jaden. No one thinks we couldn't deal our way into replenishing those firsts and then some if we tore it down to the studs?

Gobert is a defensive superstar. Literally one of the best paint protectors to ever play the game. And durable (unlike Durant!).

I have my own doubts and trepidation about the trade, but I think some folks are making way too big a deal of losing these firsts. This isn't the NFL.

This is exactly how I feel. Enjoy this, it doesn't come around very often for us. And there are ways to adjust on the fly if needed.