Minnesota Sports Forum

FNG wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

PorkChop wrote:McDaniels might be one of those players we always obsess about teams like the Spurs finding in the draft. Might be nice for a change if we hold on to him and find out if we got our diamond in the rough. He showed a lot of promise, if Okogie and Culver have held roster spots than this man has more than earned his chance to prove himself further.
I consider him to be a building block.

He could potentially be a better pro than Ant. Don't get me wrong, I think Ant will contend for a scoring title some day. But I think Jaden could be a top 3 player on a championship team too.

I don't necessarily agree with your take, Cool. And I will also add that among all the smart posters here, your view of the current Wolves roster probably most dovetails with mine. So lay your cards on the table. If the asking price for Simmons is DLO plus McDaniels, do you pull the trigger.

Wow, you are really putting me in the vice here. I really like Simmons, and in combination with Jaden we could be terrific defensively. I don't hate DLO, but I've always said the trade to bring him here created a low ceiling. I'm tempted to pull the trigger on that deal but I wouldn't do it for the following reasons. First and foremost Simmons has had a lot of back issues. I'd be afraid to make the deal for fear that he spends more time on the training table than on the court. And secondly, I am looking so forward to watching Jaden develop over these next few years, and don't want it to be for another team. He's just so intriguing. A blend of basketball smarts, toughness, competitiveness, and natural gifts that in combination is so rare to find. Maybe he just becomes a good player and that would be okay. But if he gets the proper coaching and they build up his body and offensive game, it's hard to even see his ceiling. This may surprise you, but I would rather trade Ant and Rubio or Beasley, than trade DLO and McDaniels. In a perfect world it would be DLO and Beasley, but I can't see the Sixers doing that.

Great question Fungo

Cool - You mention an important issue that's been overlooked so far in discussions about a positive Simmons trade, namely his durability or lack thereof. He's missed 15 games in each of the last two seasons. I believe those missed games were due largely to back issues. As we all know, bad backs generally get worse and become extremely debilitating to a high-caliber athlete. Just ask Larry Bird. Note also that Simmons missed his entire first season to repair a foot defect. While successfully repaired and not problematic the past several years, that's something that could come back. None of this is dispositive, but it's another factor.

I wouldn't even trade DLO and Beasley for Simmons. That's giving up a lot of young, talented offensive firepower for one great defender who can't shoot. The back issue adds another layer of concern. My highest offer would be DLO, our 2023 lottery protected 1st and a future 2nd round pick. Of course, that's not going to be enough. Rosas should make that offer and then just move on to focus on adding a defensive big to the roster with assets Rubio, Culver, Layman, future 2nd round picks and possible a future lottery-protected 1st. At a minimum, I would think we could trade Culver + a 2nd round pick to get his $6.5M salary space. That would give the Wolves nearly $8M to to work with under the luxury tax to sign a quality big.

Cool and Lip, you both mention durability as a reason to avoid Simmons, but he has been much more durable in his career than DLO since they began playing in the league. Simmons has averaged 70 games in his 4 seasons, while Russell has only averaged 60 games. Russell has played in fewer than 50 games in 4 of his 6 seasons, while Simmons has never played fewer than 50 games (or once, if you count his rookie year when he sat out as part of The Process). And if we're more worried about recent history, the story gets worse for DLO...Simmons has averaged 57.5 games the past two seasons, while DLO has only averaged 43.5. I think it's safe to say that one of the two players is injury prone, and it ain't Simmons! Does it make sense to worry about a sore back that Ben has mostly played through without being more worried about the knee, ankle and thumb injuries that have caused DLO to miss so many games?

I sense that because Simmons is an all-NBA defender (as opposed to being defensively-inept, like DLO and Beasley), and is also a horrible long-distance shooter, some here conclude that Simmons is a poor offensive performer. But that is far from the truth, and many stats actually show him to be superior to DLO on the offensive side of the ball too. DLO is clearly a better 3-point shooter and free thrower, and can also create his own shot much better (42% of Simmons' 2-point shots are assisted, while only 22% of DLO's are), but almost all other offensive stats favor Simmons. Because he is so extraordinarily accurate within 10 feet, Simmons is a much more efficient scorer than DLO is. Basketball Reference clearly emphasizes efficiency, because Ben's career ORtg of 113 is a full 10 points higher than DLO's 103. Ben provides far more assists and offensive rebounds, and while DLO is known as a volume scorer and Ben is not, DLO only averages a measly 1.7 PPG more than Simmons...hardly enough to make up for all the other areas in which Ben is clearly superior.

So to me these two basketball players shouldn't even be talked about in the same conversation. While DLO scores 1.8 more points a game than Simmons and makes 3-points shots at about the league average percentage (while Simmons wisely doesn't shoot any), Simmons is the far better defender, rebounder, facilitator and efficient shooter, and has also been significantly more durable during his career. The chasm between the two max players is so wide, we shouldn't be the least bit concerned if Philly wants us to throw in another injury-prone 1-way player (Beasley) or a 19-year-old who impressed us in his rookie year while putting up numbers that were pedestrian at best. This one shouldn't be tough for Rosas to figure out. The problem is going to be convincing Morey and Brand that DLO is better than his stats indicate.

FNG, the problem is the Wolves are reluctant to give up DLO and the Sixers are not likely to want him. I agree with most of the analysis you present, but it doesn't seem relevant to this particular trade discussion. This isn't a Simmons or DLO question. It's more of what would you give up other than DLO to make a deal happen.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:FNG, the problem is the Wolves are reluctant to give up DLO and the Sixers are not likely to want him. I agree with most of the analysis you present, but it doesn't seem relevant to this particular trade discussion. This isn't a Simmons or DLO question. It's more of what would you give up other than DLO to make a deal happen.

Fair enough. With that framework, I would give them anyone they wanted other than KAT and Ant, along with a couple firsts. I think a core of KAT, Ant, Simmons, DLO and filler would put any draft pick well into the 20s, and I'm willing to give that up. So any combo they asked for (say, McDaniels, Rubio, Beasley, Naz and two firsts), I would not balk at...I think Simmons is that good at both ends of the court, and still very young and an unbelievable fit with KAT.

All that said and departing from the "what would you give other than DLO" framework, I put little credibility into Jon K's statement that Rosas is unwilling to give up DLO. What's he gonna say? If he can't put together a deal involving DLO, at least DLO will feel loved in that Rosas said publicly he wanted to keep him. And if Rosas can convince Philly to take him, he can just say after the fact "We really valued DLO, but the chance to pick up a former #1 pick and all-NBA defender was too good to pass up". Like you, I don't think Philly will value DLO enough to give up Simmons, but I also think it's our only reasonable chance to get him.

FNG wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:FNG, the problem is the Wolves are reluctant to give up DLO and the Sixers are not likely to want him. I agree with most of the analysis you present, but it doesn't seem relevant to this particular trade discussion. This isn't a Simmons or DLO question. It's more of what would you give up other than DLO to make a deal happen.

Fair enough. With that framework, I would give them anyone they wanted other than KAT and Ant, along with a couple firsts. I think a core of KAT, Ant, Simmons, DLO and filler would put any draft pick well into the 20s, and I'm willing to give that up. So any combo they asked for (say, McDaniels, Rubio, Beasley, Naz and two firsts), I would not balk at...I think Simmons is that good at both ends of the court, and still very young and an unbelievable fit with KAT.

All that said and departing from the "what would you give other than DLO" framework, I put little credibility into Jon K's statement that Rosas is unwilling to give up DLO. What's he gonna say? If he can't put together a deal involving DLO, at least DLO will feel loved in that Rosas said publicly he wanted to keep him. And if Rosas can convince Philly to take him, he can just say after the fact "We really valued DLO, but the chance to pick up a former #1 pick and all-NBA defender was too good to pass up". Like you, I don't think Philly will value DLO enough to give up Simmons, but I also think it's our only reasonable chance to get him.

When The Cavs wants Love David Griffen said Wiggins was off the table. I think it was Jon K that said he talked to Flip and Flip basically joked about Wiggins being off the table he knew Wiggins was eventually going to be available.

Let's not forget that Rosas and Morey know each other well. If there is a trade there is a good chance nobody will know and they aren't exactly going to play games with each other.

If the Sixers trade Simmons why wouldn't they be interested in Russell? They need a guard that can score and be somewhat dynamic. They will want Ant but I would guess Rosas will say no pretty fast on that. I'm not saying the Sixers will be dying to add Russell but he makes some sense the question is how much more will the Wolves have to add to make the Sixers even consider a trade.

FNG wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:The Wolves alleged unwillingness to give up Russell is baffling. And whether the Wolves get Simmons... trade McDaniels... bury Ant on the bench... whatever...

If the current Wolves brass thinks Russell is THAT important... they're going to fuck up A LOT along the way which will keep the Wolves from truly competing anyway.



[Note: I think everybody here digs McDaniel... me included. But I think part of the love affair is more about just how bad the Wolves have been... than about how good he was or even how much potential he has. Finally a good promising rookie for the Wolves drafted lower. The same could be said for lots of guys. We're just not used to it around here.]

I'm totally in agreement with both points. IF the Wolves are reluctant to move DLO for an attractive return, then there is no hope for this franchise under this administration. But I continue to think the Jon K report is being overblown or at least misinterpreted. Sure, they may not WANT to move DLO after giving up Wig and a lottery pick for him. But I continue to believe Rosas is smart enough to know there is far more potential for the Wolves with Simmons than with Russell.

Unfortunately, Abe's second point is an eye opener for me. I've probably been as squarely on the McDaniels' bandwagon as anyone. I love his footwork on defense. I love his poise on offense. I see a sweet stroke that may result in a better 3-point percentage than the 36% he put up this year. And I love the fact that he was a top 10 recruit coming out of high school. But his results don't measure up to the pedestal I (and others) have put him on based on our respective eye tests. We overlook his quite ordinary year in college. And we ignore his rather meh per 36 stats his rookie year...10.2/5.5/1.7 is not an impressive per 36 line. Neither is his 60% free throw percentage. Do I think the kid has potential? Sure. But to Abe's point, my love affair with Jaden is certainly colored by the general ineptness of this franchise and the hope that maybe we finally got one right. If Philly needs him in the Simmons deal instead of Beasley, I don't hesitate to throw him in. Yeah, he may turn out to live up to the hype on this board, but it's just as likely he becomes the next Wolves' unspectacular draft pick. We know who Simmons is, and in my opinion we would be lucky to get him for DLO/Jaden. I would prefer tossing in Beasley rather than Jaden, but I don't think that will be nearly enough for the 76ers.

How sexy would Jaden McDaniels be if he was the next Mikel Bridges? I'd be thrilled and his stats as a much younger player are easily comparable to Bridges first year. I'm with Cool I'm not interested in giving him up with another significant asset for Simmons. I'll live with it if he ends up falling flat. 3 years from now we may be looking at McDaniels as a really high level player. Remember he was supposed to be a project. He already exceeded expectations in year one.

Regarding picks being central to any Simmons trade I'd question if Philly sees it that way. Their window is now, not down the road when those picks would come to them. They need players that they believe give them the best chance to win it all now.

TheSP wrote:Regarding picks being central to any Simmons trade I'd question if Philly sees it that way. Their window is now, not down the road when those picks would come to them. They need players that they believe give them the best chance to win it all now.

You make a good point unless they think they can flip those picks in another trade to add another player that can help them now.

monsterpile wrote:

TheSP wrote:Regarding picks being central to any Simmons trade I'd question if Philly sees it that way. Their window is now, not down the road when those picks would come to them. They need players that they believe give them the best chance to win it all now.

You make a good point unless they think they can flip those picks in another trade to add another player that can help them now.

SP is right about the Sixers being in win-now mode. So I agree with you, Monster, that the Sixers would view picks from Minnesota as assets to acquire veteran talent. If the Wolves end up doing a Simmons deal, I suspect there will be a third team involved. If DLO's off the table, then the Sixers would be looking to acquire a good PG along with Beasley and McDaniels. I could see a third team getting the picks and maybe Layman in exchange for a PG going to the Sixers. Maybe OKC gets involved and Kemba Walker ends up with the Sixers.

But again, I'd be really unhappy if we end up giving up Beasley, McDaniels and two future 1st-round picks for Simmons.