Minnesota Sports Forum

lipoli390 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:Here's a very well-written article about the five most difficult choices facing the Wolves this summer:

https://zonecoverage.com/2018/timberwolves/moore-the-five-pivot-points-of-the-minnesota-timberwolves-offseason/

Yes, an interesting article. Thanks for posting. One thing seems clear to me. Extending Butler this summer isn't realistic because it would require the Wolves to get temporarily below the salary cap, which means trimming $9 million in guaranteed contracts from the payroll. That's fine because I wouldn't want to commit to him yet anyway. I want to see how this team perform and how Butler holds up physically next season following his last knee surgery. He's played in 70 or more games only twice in his 7 year career. That's not a good track record of durability. Now that he's about to turn 29 after just undergoing meniscus surgery, I think it would be a mistake to commit long term to him at this point.

This is where Glen Taylor is going to have to assert himself and just say no because I suspect Thibodeau will be pushing to extend Butler this summer. I also suspect Thibodeau will be pushing to use at least part of the MLE to re-sign Rose and pushing to trade the first round pick we got for Rubio. Again, in my view, Glen needs to say no to all of the above. Thibodeau and his minions in the front office should be expected to draft a good young player with the 20th pick, sign a good rotation player with the MLE and land another decent veteran with the vet exception. If he can keep Rose at the vet minimum, that would be gravy.

I would also expect Thibodeau and his minions to make a major effort to move Gorgui, Teague or both in an effort to either avoid the luxury tax or improve the roster. But no matter how hard he tries, I can't see a realistic deal to move either of these two unless we also include our first round pick for this year or some future year and I would say no to any such deal. If I'm wrong is concluding that Teague is overpaid, then we won't have to give up a valuable asset like a first round pick to entice a team to trade for him.

I'd leave the door open to offers for Wiggins and I'd listen closely, but I wouldn't actively shop him.

The article omitted what I consider the most important priority for the Wolves front office this summer -- i.e., extending Karl Anthony Towns. He's the foundation for the franchise. Locking him up long term gives this franchise a longer term trajectory built around KAT. Extending KAT this summer would provide the foundation to re-sign Butler next summer if things go really well next season. It would also provide the foundation for retooling around KAT in the event Butler leaves as a free agent after next season.

It's a good article and Lip you have some good thoughts.

Do I think they will he aggressive looking for something with that #20 pick? Sure. Do I think they will find a deal that accomplished what they wan? I doubt they will. I think they will likely have their sights set pretty high. Thibs and Layden seemed to have valued drafts picks pretty high so far. We heard reports they were going to trade their pick for a vet and they drafted Dunn. When they traded their pick (and Dunn) they did it to get a top 20 player in Butler and they got another pick back in that draft. They dealt Rubio for a draft pick and then last offseason and last season did not move that for a vet. When talking about being aggressive Layden basically immediately brought up the Butler deal. Obviously they aren't getting a player that good with that pick but I'd guess they are going to be looking for a pretty solid/good player and or salary relief of moving Dieng. I just don't see how that's going to happen. The one deal that I could see happening is the ever popular Dieng for Bazemore but Bazemore makes more money than Dieng the next 2 years (assuming he opts in) so whether it accomplishes the takes of unloading salary and bringing in a better player for the team...eh sorta but not really. The team seems to be doing its due diligence on the draft as usual. One other possibility is the Wolves could offer Patton as a sweetener. I'm sure his value isn't high right now with his foot tissues but a rebuilding team might have interest in him and see him as a decent lottery ticket. It might be enough to get something done. I don't know enough about his injuries to say if I would do this or not. I'm just sayin.

I'm a bit worried about paying Rose more than the minimum but less worried than most people. Thibs and Layden seem like they know what everyone else does that they need versatile wings that can shoot and defend. Whatever they have of the midlevel has to be used on one of those guys. I think that they will actually be firm on not using the midlevel on Rose unless they absolutely strike out on everyone or something. That could happen but I bet someone takes that 5 or 8 million whatever we have.

What I am probably more worried about is whether Belly comes back. He is an important part of what this team needs going forward but he also isn't absolutely essential. How much does he want to come back? If he wants to be back I think he and the Wolves can get something done that makes sense for both sides. Jon K has said Belly has had some frustration with his role so...maybe he would look elsewhere. On the other hand I'm also guessing he might not be dying to move on from where he is at. It took him a while to get comfortable when he came over. Time will tell. If he isn't retained that's another hole to be filled and we just lost one of the best and largest volume shooters on the team. YIKES.

I just don't see Butler signing an extension this summer as realistic just because how much salary you would have to move. The other advanatage to doing it besides him being locked in is that doing a deal this summer would lock him in at a lower number than what he could get next summer which would be a pretty big advantageous doing it now. I'd guess if the Wolves had a reasonable way to get the extension done all parties including Glen would have interest in making it happen. I just don't see the path to doing it. This group valued Rubio enough to hold out for a 1st round pick for him and a guy like Teague that probably could be moved probably has move value to them right now than Rubio did.

Honestly I think this offseason is probably mostly going to be mostly boring with the intruige of whether Belly and Rose returns and who they get with the midlevel (and when the dust really settles the vet min and the draft picks.

Also people say Thibs won't play a young player. I think that's not quite true. He will play that guy if he thinks he can play. Don't be shocked if whoever they pick at #20 gets regular playing time especially depending on what happens with the rest of FA.

Good point, Monster, on Belly. I forgot to mention him in my post. I agree that resigning him is important if we can to so without compromising our ability to make effective use of the MLE. It would appear that we can use our full $8.6 million MLE as long as salaries and cap holds don't push us over the luxury tax threshold. I'm not sure how much we can pay Belly without causing us to lose our full MLE.

You're right that so far Thibodeau has valued first round picks. But I fear that he's starting to feel desperate about keeping his job and will make short-term win-now decisions as PBO because Thibs the head coach will be in control. I hope I'm wrong.

In my view, the Wolves top priorities this summer should be the following in order of importance:

1. Sign Towns to a max 5-year extension
2. Use the MLE to sign the best available 2-way wing
3. Re-sign Belly, but only if that can be done without limiting our MLE
4. Draft the best player available at #20 and the best available with our 2nd round pick

Here's a list of things the Wolves should aggressively try to do in order of importance without giving up our #20 pick or any future first round pick and without giving up Tyus Jones:

1. Attempt to trade Gorgui for a similar salary on a shorter contract or a comparably paid player at the wing position who could help the team - e.g., Bazemore

2. Attempt to trade Teague for a lower priced return to help avoid the luxury tax

Question: Who, if anyone, on the list of free agents in the article should the Wolves pursue with their MLE?

lipoli390 wrote:Good point, Monster, on Belly. I forgot to mention him in my post. I agree that resigning him is important if we can to so without compromising our ability to make effective use of the MLE. It would appear that we can use our full $8.6 million MLE as long as salaries and cap holds don't push us over the luxury tax threshold. I'm not sure how much we can pay Belly without causing us to lose our full MLE.

You're right that so far Thibodeau has valued first round picks. But I fear that he's starting to feel desperate about keeping his job and will make short-term win-now decisions as PBO because Thibs the head coach will be in control. I hope I'm wrong.

In my view, the Wolves top priorities this summer should be the following in order of importance:

1. Sign Towns to a max 5-year extension
2. Use the MLE to sign the best available 2-way wing
3. Re-sign Belly, but only if that can be done without limiting our MLE
4. Draft the best player available at #20 and the best available with our 2nd round pick

Here's a list of things the Wolves should aggressively try to do in order of importance without giving up our #20 pick or any future first round pick and without giving up Tyus Jones:

1. Attempt to trade Gorgui for a similar salary on a shorter contract or a comparably paid player at the wing position who could help the team - e.g., Bazemore

2. Attempt to trade Teague for a lower priced return to help avoid the luxury tax

Question: Who, if anyone, on the list of free agents in the article should the Wolves pursue with their MLE?

Lots of good stuff Lip. One thing I think people underestimate about Thins is his ego when it comes to young players. All coaches to one extent or another thing they can get the best out of tough players. We have heard that Thibs had guys he wanted the Bulls to draft in Chicago including Dieng. I'm not suggesting that he is some genius talent evaluator just that his desire to add and coach a good young player is downplayed because he plays his starters a lot. Look at this rookie class just this year. It's simply been terrific and guys have made an impact right away. Thibs might be feeling pressure but what about pressure to get more out of some young players? He got unlucky with Patton being hurt and it's a shame all around. I know people are down on him as a talent as well but obviously right now the number one concern is health. There were players in this last year that could have helped this team right away. I'm sure that is not lost on Thibs. Picking the right player at #20 or even unearthing a gem in the 2nd round could solve a lot of problems with this team. That has to have been discussed. They aren't going to assume that guy will solve anything but let's be honest what FA or trade they and made that they can add would solve these things? They need to keep trusting their process...along with tweaking it as well.

As for the mid level...I've been thinking about that. It's just really hard. I mean what role is actually available here? Rose is likely coming back and if healthy he is gonna play some and I don't think he is going to relegate Tyus to no minutes which means...how many minutes are left especially if Belly is back? In one sense there is a giant hole on this roster for a wing but in some ways there is not. To me you need to look for a guy that's tired of losing and just wants to win and pretty much doesn't give a crap about how it happens...and probably isn't at the top of the heap in demand. Maybe a quick strike with a full midlevel offer to Will Barton? Honestly that's probably a best case scenario. Joe Harris is probably more like the guy that I could see is getting. Maybe James Ennis if we don't have the full midlevel. I'd love to get Anthony Tolliver somehow but he shouldnt command huge money. Ellington (probablybthe guy on the list innthe article I think is most likely for various reasons I wouldn't want to give Marco full midlevel) will have plenty of people interested. Garrett Temple if he opts out? Idk none of those guys are super sexy names but I don't think we have a shot at the Tyreke Evans level of player or like I said even Will Barton. There are some interesting guys out there we that i didn't name but it's so tough to know who is interested in what and things are gonna be so tight and will some players set the market and or sign making the market basically dry up? I think you can benefit from trying to stoke in a guy early and also benefit from waiting around.

Thibs and Layden have miscalculated in each of their offseason on free agent moves and I think both times they were defensible. First year they see the same thing most of us did the team needed size girth and rebounding. They got pretty good deals for Cole and Hill. The league changed so much those guys weren't needed. One of them sure but both..nope. Extending Dieng ended up being a bad move also but I separate that out a bit from the whole offseason. For signing both Aldrich and Hill financially they weren't disasters at least. Hill was basically a 1 year deal and Aldrich was more of a commitment but at least he only has 2 million guaranteed for next season. There are much worse deals out there...including Dieng.

Last year they really held out and prioritized bringing back Bazz in the hopes they could have a young player that would be part of their future as a rotation guy. That failed in every way possible except costing them money because he was a vet min guy and gave up his player optionnto get out. That kept them from adding another vet player maybe even 2 that would have helped more. I know Bazz didn't fit the roster but sometimes being able to bring in a guy you think could help at a position that's really valuable around the league makes a lot of sense.

So this year can they make the right moves all around and bring in the right guys in FA? It's hard to expect from any franchise. GS spent a valuable amount of money on Nick young and basically that was a terrible move. Casspi was a better move for the vet min and unfortunately for both parties he got injured. Fortunately They has Quinn Cook step up so that helped mitigate the poor Nick Young addition. Of course now that I say this Young will go out and have a few terrific games the rest of the playoffs and... lol I think there are guys out there the Wolves can add both for midlevel money and for even cheaper that can help them. They need to be better this year and that includes sticking to their guns and telling Rose they are only willing to spend the vet min on him. If they somehow draft a worthwhile player at #20 sign a good wing with the mid-level sign Rose for the vet min and bring in some other solid player that fits well for the vet min...wow it would be a heck of an offseason. That's not unrealistic and it doesn't have to be super sexy to make this team quite a bit better all around. Like I say I think it will be interesting but also kinda boring to watch. Lol

Edit: A guy that would be interesting if nothing happened after the first wave or so is make an offer to our guy Pat Connaughton.

The article ignores an upcoming deadline the Wolves have to make an improvement to the roster: June 20th. That is when the Wolves must decide whether to waive Cole Aldrich, thus saving 5 mil for the '18-19 season. The article just assumes Aldrich will be waived (unless I missed something and he is already gone?!?).

But another alternative is trade Aldrich to a team looking to cut salary. Aldrich's salary could bring back a player making up to 12 mil. Aldrich can then be wavied for 2 mil, saving the team up to 10 mil in salary. Of course, this would put a crimp on using our MLE in free agency. But we would presumably fill a void in our roster that would no longer be needed in free agency.

My personal favorite would be Aldrich and a 2nd rounder for Mo Harkless. Portland needs a lot of cap space to re-sign Nurkic! While I am probably dreaming, there surely are a number of other worthy possibilities out there...

60WinTim wrote:The article ignores an upcoming deadline the Wolves have to make an improvement to the roster: June 20th. That is when the Wolves must decide whether to waive Cole Aldrich, thus saving 5 mil for the '18-19 season. The article just assumes Aldrich will be waived (unless I missed something and he is already gone?!?).

But another alternative is trade Aldrich to a team looking to cut salary. Aldrich's salary could bring back a player making up to 12 mil. Aldrich can then be wavied for 2 mil, saving the team up to 10 mil in salary. Of course, this would put a crimp on using our MLE in free agency. But we would presumably fill a void in our roster that would no longer be needed in free agency.

My personal favorite would be Aldrich and a 2nd rounder for Mo Harkless. Portland needs a lot of cap space to re-sign Nurkic! While I am probably dreaming, there surely are a number of other worthy possibilities out there...

Yeah, they do have to decide what to do with Aldrich. Personally, I know what my choice would be...play him! One of the biggest issues with this team is their lack of physicality inside...the relatively weak base of their bigs causes them to get shoved around (and Patton is not going to change this much), and that led to the Wolves ranking 27th in defensive rebounding. Cole would do a lot to improve our terrible defensive rebounding and to allow KAT to rest a little and not be so burned out by playoff time...and at a very attractive price tag too. Keep him and play him!

I questioned continually going to Dieng over Aldrich AND Crawford over MGH especially when both were struggling. I think part of it is GM Thibs thinking that no vet will come here if he doesn't play him like Crawford did, even if he was a ghost on defense. Same with Dieng, preserving some trade "value" by letting him play through his struggles may have helped a bit.

I think that giving either player a shot or a bigger shot in MGH's case could have helped the team last season. We struggled on defense because of Dieng and Crawford, but of course, much more Crawford. Dieng was just bad all around for a while.

Dieng for Deng might fly... ;-)

longstrangetrip wrote:

60WinTim wrote:The article ignores an upcoming deadline the Wolves have to make an improvement to the roster: June 20th. That is when the Wolves must decide whether to waive Cole Aldrich, thus saving 5 mil for the '18-19 season. The article just assumes Aldrich will be waived (unless I missed something and he is already gone?!?).

But another alternative is trade Aldrich to a team looking to cut salary. Aldrich's salary could bring back a player making up to 12 mil. Aldrich can then be wavied for 2 mil, saving the team up to 10 mil in salary. Of course, this would put a crimp on using our MLE in free agency. But we would presumably fill a void in our roster that would no longer be needed in free agency.

My personal favorite would be Aldrich and a 2nd rounder for Mo Harkless. Portland needs a lot of cap space to re-sign Nurkic! While I am probably dreaming, there surely are a number of other worthy possibilities out there...

Yeah, they do have to decide what to do with Aldrich. Personally, I know what my choice would be...play him! One of the biggest issues with this team is their lack of physicality inside...the relatively weak base of their bigs causes them to get shoved around (and Patton is not going to change this much), and that led to the Wolves ranking 27th in defensive rebounding. Cole would do a lot to improve our terrible defensive rebounding and to allow KAT to rest a little and not be so burned out by playoff time...and at a very attractive price tag too. Keep him and play him!

I agree with you one what should happen. But Thibodeau is returning as head coach. That means he won't play Aldrich. How do I know that? Because he didn't play him at all last season and one thing we should all know about Thibodeau by now is that he doesn't change or adapt. That means the Wolves need to either let Aldrich go to get a little more headroom for free agent acquisitions using the MLE without exceeding the luxury tax threshold or trade him to a team willing to move talent in exchange for cap relief.

I sort of feel sorry for Thibodeau the head coach because his PBO keeps giving him the wrong players. It dates back to his PBO signing Brandon Rush and Jordan Hill for one season, then letting them walk. His PBO went on to sign Cole Aldrich, who Thibs obviously didn't want since he hardly played him. His PBO didn't stop there as he went on to sign Gorgui to a lucrative extension, but then signed Taj Gibson 10 months later. A relieved head coach Thibodeau immediately made Taj his starter and gave him heavy minutes because he couldn't rely on Gorgui who his dunderheaded PBO locked up for 4 years in a virtually untradeable contract. His PBO drafted Dunn, who Thibodeau didn't think was good enough on a 30-win team to play much. His PBO passed over John Collins to draft Justin Patton - a seven footer who averaged only around 6 boards a game in college. I'm sure coach Thibodeau was relieved to learn that Bazz turned down his PBO's offer of $10 million a year, but he must have been disappointed to find out his PBO brought Bazz back at the minimum. Further, I can only imagine how disappointed coach Thibodeau was when he learned that his PBO signed the not-so-defensive minded Teague as the team's starting PG and the even less defensive minded Jamaal Crawford to be his primary wing off the bench. I mean, Thibodeau has always emphasized defense, so he had to be fuming over those two free agent acquisitions. But at least Thibodeau's PBO has a history with the Bulls from 4+ years ago - a historical relationship which led him to trade for Butler and the sign of Taj Gibson.

But I have to believe coach Thibodeau wished he had a better PBO shaping his roster.

Even if Thibs played Aldrich over Dieng, he'd just foul out in 6 minutes as he's good for a foul a minute :)

And for that reason, I'm on bored with the trade him while his contract situation is hot camp.

I finally listened to the Thibs/Layden post-season press conference. Obviously, neither guy revealed much or offered any particularly interesting insights.

Per usual, Thibs was articulate, thoughtful, measured and well-informed. He said the right things such as saying the team needs to take more threes. I like that, when asked whether the key for next season is defensive improvement, he said that we also need to improve offensively as well. He typically says the right things. Let's face it, although I question his coaching, the guy is smart and knows the game of basketball.

Per usual, Layden sounded like a doorknob. Maybe it's just me, but the guy seems clueless as he inarticulately spews rambling platitudes. I went out of his way to mention the possibility of trading our first round pick. Not sure why he felt the need to do that. He indicated that the front office was going to be "very aggressive" this offseason. Well, what the hell does that mean. To me, very aggressive for a capped out team like the Wolves means trying to deal Wiggins or at least Jeff Teague. Otherwise, looking to sign a couple of the best free agents available with the MLE and vet minimum exception is pretty basic and not what anyone would consider aggressive, much less "very aggressive." Or maybe that was another way of saying the front office will try really hard to trade our first-round pick. Then there was his strange comment that the Wolves should have done more at the Feb. trade deadline, saying "that's on me." What the hell was that about?! Was he saying he had offers he should have accepted? What would those have been? Did he mean he didn't bother pursuing Belinelli or Ilyasova via free agency? If that's the case, it's definitly "on him" and he should be fired, but signing those guys had nothing to do with the trade deadline.

Anyway, I think Layden's an idiot. Just my opinion. I recall that the Knicks were voted the worst NBA franchise when Layden was head of that team's basketball operations. I'm told by insiders that Layden isn't much more than Thibs' gopher. That's probably a good thing. Although I have my misgivings about Thibodeau, I think he's clearly the smart one in our front office.