West Conference playoff thread

[Monster]

Neither Lebron nor the Lakers will be champions, that sadly is enough to qualify as a good season for this Wolves fan.

It’s not quite as satisfying as Aaron Rogers and the Packers not making the playoffs but I’ll take it.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Neither Lebron nor the Lakers will be champions, that sadly is enough to qualify as a good season for this Wolves fan.

It’s not quite as satisfying as Aaron Rogers and the Packers not making the playoffs but I’ll take it.

As a lifelong Celtics fan (and almost lifelong) Timberwolves fan... I'm especially pleased with the Lakers being bounced.

_____________________

I think everybody has seen the stats I've shared about the Lakers midseason historically unprecedented FTA differential that started almost immediately after NBA officials "lost sleep" over a missed call (on LeBron James' layup) in a game vs. Boston.

But for anybody who digs NBA history, it's not even the first time the Lakers used an incredible (almost too much to believe) FTA advantage to sneak into the playoffs at the end of the season.

_____________________


- The 2013 Lakers team was also dominant from the free throw line (#1 in attempts, #2 in fewest attempts) for the season.
- But just like this season... they got better and better and better down the stretch. The team didn't qualify for the playoffs until the final day of the season. In fact, they had to win 8 of their final 9 games... and the final 5 games of the season... to sneak in as the #8 seed.

They did it... by dominating the free throw line. Some fun statistics:

- 30.7 for the Lakers... 17.5 for opponents over those 9 games. The Lakers took more free throws in every game... just like this season.
- But it's the 4th quarter where they really dominated (115 vs. 49).

What's even more remarkable is what happened in the final 5 MUST-WIN games:

- The Lakers were tied or trailed in every game in the 4th quarter. But they won all 5 games with a 58-20 FTA advantage in those 4th quarters.

But wait... it gets better. We could just chalk it up to Dwight Howard and Kobe Bryant playing together. But not necessarily. Kobe Bryant was lost for the season in Game #80... a game the Lakers won by 2 with a 50-16 FTA advantage.

Thankfully, career journeyman Steve Blake stepped in... and stepped up to the line in his place.

In Game #82, the Lakers battled the Houston Rockets with league-leading FTA guy, James Harden. No worries.
- Down 7 with 9 minutes left... the Lakers start dominating with a 14 - 3 FTA advantage down the stretch to send the game to OT, where they won and made the playoffs.

The Lakers did an especially awesome job changing defensive tactics on James Harden late in the game. After fouling him countless times (12 FTA through 3 quarters)... the Lakers did not foul him a single time during the 17 minutes of the 4th quarter and OT.

__________________________

Has this sort of thing happened before? Maybe. Maybe not. I've looked and can't find anything similar.

But it did happen to the Lakers... TWICE... in 10 seasons as the NBA's most celebrated and popular franchise was battling to make the playoffs late in the season.

_________________________

F that franchise.

[KiwiMatt]

Neither Lebron nor the Lakers will be champions, that sadly is enough to qualify as a good season for this Wolves fan.

It’s not quite as satisfying as Aaron Rogers and the Packers not making the playoffs but I’ll take it.

As a lifelong Celtics fan (and almost lifelong) Timberwolves fan... I'm especially pleased with the Lakers being bounced.

_____________________

I think everybody has seen the stats I've shared about the Lakers midseason historically unprecedented FTA differential that started almost immediately after NBA officials "lost sleep" over a missed call (on LeBron James' layup) in a game vs. Boston.

But for anybody who digs NBA history, it's not even the first time the Lakers used an incredible (almost too much to believe) FTA advantage to sneak into the playoffs at the end of the season.

_____________________


- The 2013 Lakers team was also dominant from the free throw line (#1 in attempts, #2 in fewest attempts) for the season.
- But just like this season... they got better and better and better down the stretch. The team didn't qualify for the playoffs until the final day of the season. In fact, they had to win 8 of their final 9 games... and the final 5 games of the season... to sneak in as the #8 seed.

They did it... by dominating the free throw line. Some fun statistics:

- 30.7 for the Lakers... 17.5 for opponents over those 9 games. The Lakers took more free throws in every game... just like this season.
- But it's the 4th quarter where they really dominated (115 vs. 49).

What's even more remarkable is what happened in the final 5 MUST-WIN games:

- The Lakers were tied or trailed in every game in the 4th quarter. But they won all 5 games with a 58-20 FTA advantage in those 4th quarters.

But wait... it gets better. We could just chalk it up to Dwight Howard and Kobe Bryant playing together. But not necessarily. Kobe Bryant was lost for the season in Game #80... a game the Lakers won by 2 with a 50-16 FTA advantage.

Thankfully, career journeyman Steve Blake stepped in... and stepped up to the line in his place.

In Game #82, the Lakers battled the Houston Rockets with league-leading FTA guy, James Harden. No worries.
- Down 7 with 9 minutes left... the Lakers start dominating with a 14 - 3 FTA advantage down the stretch to send the game to OT, where they won and made the playoffs.

The Lakers did an especially awesome job changing defensive tactics on James Harden late in the game. After fouling him countless times (12 FTA through 3 quarters)... the Lakers did not foul him a single time during the 17 minutes of the 4th quarter and OT.

__________________________

Has this sort of thing happened before? Maybe. Maybe not. I've looked and can't find anything similar.

But it did happen to the Lakers... TWICE... in 10 seasons as the NBA's most celebrated and popular franchise was battling to make the playoffs late in the season.

_________________________

F that franchise.

It's easy for biased officiating to be kept somewhat hidden during the regular season. Unless you dig deep into the statistics like you have Abe. But deep in the playoffs with significantly larger audiences they can't get away with it. Hence why the Lakers got swept 4 - 0 but the Nuggets. Good riddance.


Same thing will keep happening. Big Market bias is alive and well!

[FNG]

I think we all know whom to blame for this Lakers free throw disparity...George Mikan. He AVERAGED 10 free throw attempts per game in his 72 playoff games. By the way, the refs' blatant favoritism for the Minneapolis Lakers during the Mikan era allowed them (us?) to win an incredible 20 out of the 22 playoff series we were in during his 7 years.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I think we all know whom to blame for this Lakers free throw disparity...George Mikan. He AVERAGED 10 free throw attempts per game in his 72 playoff games. By the way, the refs' blatant favoritism for the Minneapolis Lakers during the Mikan era allowed them (us?) to win an incredible 20 out of the 22 playoff series we were in during his 7 years.

Yes. And No.

For example, in the 1950 NBA Finals, George Mikan averaged an incredible 14.3 FTA per game.

But for the series, Minnesota and Syracuse shot almost the exact same number of FTs. (211 vs. 208)

____________________

The real difference was Mikan from the field. He made 63 field goals... the top guy for Syracuse (Dolph Schayes) only made 30 during the series.




[Note: I know you're joking... I just wanted to carry it out a bit.]

[Carlos Danger]

I don't know. I'm not seeing any big conspiracy in the Lakers free throw attempts. I just went back 10 years. The Wolves actually have finished with more FTA than the Lakers 7 out of those 10 years.

2013/14: Lakers were 20th in FTA. The Wolves were #3
2014/15: Lakers were 11th in FTA. The Wolves were #3
2015/16: Lakers were 8th in FTA. The Wolves were #2
2016/17: Lakers were 17th in FTA. The Wolves were #9
2017/18: Lakers were 8th in FTA. The Wolves were #5
2018/19: Lakers were 14th in FTA. The Wolves were #8
2019/20: Lakers were 10th in FTA. The Wolves dropped to #19
2020/21: Lakers were 6th in FTA. The Wolves were right behind them at #7
2021/22: Lakers were 9th in FTA. The Wolves were #8
2022/23: Lakers were #1 in FTA. The Wolves dropped to #16

So our very own Wolves have been top 10 in FTA for 8 out of the last 10 years. I did look at the other side (opponent FTA) and it all looked pretty random for both teams. I'm not seeing any trends myself other than I was surprised to see Wolves getting that many FTAs.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I don't know. I'm not seeing any big conspiracy in the Lakers free throw attempts. I just went back 10 years. The Wolves actually have finished with more FTA than the Lakers 7 out of those 10 years.

2013/14: Lakers were 20th in FTA. The Wolves were #3
2014/15: Lakers were 11th in FTA. The Wolves were #3
2015/16: Lakers were 8th in FTA. The Wolves were #2
2016/17: Lakers were 17th in FTA. The Wolves were #9
2017/18: Lakers were 8th in FTA. The Wolves were #5
2018/19: Lakers were 14th in FTA. The Wolves were #8
2019/20: Lakers were 10th in FTA. The Wolves dropped to #19
2020/21: Lakers were 6th in FTA. The Wolves were right behind them at #7
2021/22: Lakers were 9th in FTA. The Wolves were #8
2022/23: Lakers were #1 in FTA. The Wolves dropped to #16

So our very own Wolves have been top 10 in FTA for 8 out of the last 10 years. I did look at the other side (opponent FTA) and it all looked pretty random for both teams. I'm not seeing any trends myself other than I was surprised to see Wolves getting that many FTAs.

I'm not entirely sure why you're showing LAL vs. Minn FTA to counter my take about FTA (Differential) this season or in 2013... and how it became more pronounced down the stretch of both seasons as the Lakers battled back from slow starts to make the playoffs at the very end of the season.

Additionally, FTA differential is only 1/2 about offense. The Lakers incredible improvement this season actually had more to do with NOT fouling opponents. The Lakers led the league in FTA all season. But they were only about 5th (maybe lower) in Opp FTA through 51 games. Then, over the final 31 games (47 counting playoffs) they allowed about 5 fewer FTA per game, which catapulted them to league-best status.



[Note: And I'm not claiming conspiracy. I might agree, however, that there might be officiating bias sometimes.]

[FNG]

Terrific research here by Carlos and Abe!

[Carlos Danger]

I don't know. I'm not seeing any big conspiracy in the Lakers free throw attempts. I just went back 10 years. The Wolves actually have finished with more FTA than the Lakers 7 out of those 10 years.

2013/14: Lakers were 20th in FTA. The Wolves were #3
2014/15: Lakers were 11th in FTA. The Wolves were #3
2015/16: Lakers were 8th in FTA. The Wolves were #2
2016/17: Lakers were 17th in FTA. The Wolves were #9
2017/18: Lakers were 8th in FTA. The Wolves were #5
2018/19: Lakers were 14th in FTA. The Wolves were #8
2019/20: Lakers were 10th in FTA. The Wolves dropped to #19
2020/21: Lakers were 6th in FTA. The Wolves were right behind them at #7
2021/22: Lakers were 9th in FTA. The Wolves were #8
2022/23: Lakers were #1 in FTA. The Wolves dropped to #16

So our very own Wolves have been top 10 in FTA for 8 out of the last 10 years. I did look at the other side (opponent FTA) and it all looked pretty random for both teams. I'm not seeing any trends myself other than I was surprised to see Wolves getting that many FTAs.

I'm not entirely sure why you're showing LAL vs. Minn FTA to counter my take about FTA (Differential) this season or in 2013... and how it became more pronounced down the stretch of both seasons as the Lakers battled back from slow starts to make the playoffs at the very end of the season.

Additionally, FTA differential is only 1/2 about offense. The Lakers incredible improvement this season actually had more to do with NOT fouling opponents. The Lakers led the league in FTA all season. But they were only about 5th (maybe lower) in Opp FTA through 51 games. Then, over the final 31 games (47 counting playoffs) they allowed about 5 fewer FTA per game, which catapulted them to league-best status.



[Note: And I'm not claiming conspiracy. I might agree, however, that there might be officiating bias sometimes.]

I was just reading your posts on this subject and interpreting them to be implying officiating bias (which certainly wouldn't be impossible). It got me curious to what the data looked like over a longer term (not just this year). I posted what I found. I included the Wolves data because they kept popping up above the Lakers which was a surprise to me and I thought others might be interested in that too.

This year's FT differential looked weird as you pointed out. I just was curious if there was any sort of trend. I'm not seeing it. I even looked a couple players (LeBron and AD) to see if their FTAs went up during their time with Lakers vs. their time with other teams and I didn't see anything there.

That's it. Just adding my 2 cents to the discussion based on what I found when I looked back 10 years.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I don't know. I'm not seeing any big conspiracy in the Lakers free throw attempts. I just went back 10 years. The Wolves actually have finished with more FTA than the Lakers 7 out of those 10 years.

2013/14: Lakers were 20th in FTA. The Wolves were #3
2014/15: Lakers were 11th in FTA. The Wolves were #3
2015/16: Lakers were 8th in FTA. The Wolves were #2
2016/17: Lakers were 17th in FTA. The Wolves were #9
2017/18: Lakers were 8th in FTA. The Wolves were #5
2018/19: Lakers were 14th in FTA. The Wolves were #8
2019/20: Lakers were 10th in FTA. The Wolves dropped to #19
2020/21: Lakers were 6th in FTA. The Wolves were right behind them at #7
2021/22: Lakers were 9th in FTA. The Wolves were #8
2022/23: Lakers were #1 in FTA. The Wolves dropped to #16

So our very own Wolves have been top 10 in FTA for 8 out of the last 10 years. I did look at the other side (opponent FTA) and it all looked pretty random for both teams. I'm not seeing any trends myself other than I was surprised to see Wolves getting that many FTAs.

I'm not entirely sure why you're showing LAL vs. Minn FTA to counter my take about FTA (Differential) this season or in 2013... and how it became more pronounced down the stretch of both seasons as the Lakers battled back from slow starts to make the playoffs at the very end of the season.

Additionally, FTA differential is only 1/2 about offense. The Lakers incredible improvement this season actually had more to do with NOT fouling opponents. The Lakers led the league in FTA all season. But they were only about 5th (maybe lower) in Opp FTA through 51 games. Then, over the final 31 games (47 counting playoffs) they allowed about 5 fewer FTA per game, which catapulted them to league-best status.



[Note: And I'm not claiming conspiracy. I might agree, however, that there might be officiating bias sometimes.]

I was just reading your posts on this subject and interpreting them to be implying officiating bias (which certainly wouldn't be impossible). It got me curious to what the data looked like over a longer term (not just this year). I posted what I found. I included the Wolves data because they kept popping up above the Lakers which was a surprise to me and I thought others might be interested in that too.

This year's FT differential looked weird as you pointed out. I just was curious if there was any sort of trend. I'm not seeing it. I even looked a couple players (LeBron and AD) to see if their FTAs went up during their time with Lakers vs. their time with other teams and I didn't see anything there.

That's it. Just adding my 2 cents to the discussion based on what I found when I looked back 10 years.

Sure. I see your take. It makes sense. But it's not apples to apples with what I've been describing.

To summarize:

- The Lakers were very good at shooting free throws and limiting opponent free throws through the first 50 ish games. They led the league at about +3 per game. The team was 23 - 28 around this point.

- The Lakers lapped the league about 5x over the next 50ish games with a FTA differential that was about +10.

Incidentally, the improvement happened almost immediately after a highly publicized game where LeBron James was fouled vs. Boston at the end but it wasn't called... and the officials sent out an odd "it's gut-wrenching" and "we lost sleep" over it official mea culpa... amid many loud complaints from the Lakers and LeBron James via NBA channels and social media.

It's important to note that Sacramento was #2 in the NBA this season in FTA differential at +2.1.