Are you ready for 3-0- Pelicans rematch GDT

[FNG]

Cam, I wouldn't label posters here as "DLo haters". I think they are "Wolves lovers" who recognize how DLo's contract and style of play are holding us back. I see a lot of intelligent evaluators of NBA talent who produce indisputable stats to show how ineffective he has been in his career. And I think his stats would still be criticized if he were making $20 million per year, just as Wiggins would be. I would like someone to prove me wrong, but I think this is true: DLo and Wig are the only two max players in NBA history to NEVER have a positive net rating on basketballreference.com...think about that! (Full disclosure- Wig is off to a positive start this season, but I don't think he will keep it up). DLo and Wig will be forever linked because of the trade, but their effectiveness (or ineffectiveness) is also remarkably similar...both have averaged a net rating of negative 10 for their careers-not good obviously.

Maybe Wig and DLo will magically transform their games after several seasons, but it doesn't happen that often and I don't see it in either of their makeups. I hope you are wrong about the Wolves eventually extending DLo because his history tells me that would doom us to mediocrity. I think Gupta is smart enough to recognize this, and I fully expect him to move DLo for whatever he can get back. And then build around Ant and KAT. That's the hope for this franchise.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I'm well aware that nobody wants to read this given the last couple games of terrible offensive play, but I'd argue it's much more likely that D'Angelo Russell gets an extension in Minnesota before he gets traded or walks in free agency. I can't speak for anyone else, but if Russell was making closer to $20-million a year instead of the $30-million that he is, then we likely wouldn't see as many D-Lo haters as we do. The same could have been said for Andrew Wiggins although his play was worth even less. Could he still be traded after signing a new deal? Of course he could. The Wolves are one suboptimal year away from blowing everything up and building around Anthony Edwards. But if this season goes how I think that it will, then we'll be wanting to keep the nucleus together and see what additional parts can be added to the group. I still see Russell as part of the solution in Minnesota making it back to the playoffs.

I don't know about that.

And this isn't necessarily a knock against Russell. Only that NBA player movement is more pronounced than ever. This is already Russell's 3rd "season" with the team. A lot has to go right for Russell to stick around in MN... either by his own accord or the team's. A lot more can go wrong... or the Wolves might find a great deal for him... or he just wants out ... or...?

He also plays a very specific style. It's sort of like Rubio even if their styles are so vastly different. They're just sorta polarizing because the warts are almost as obvious as the pluses. Every regime wants its own type of players. And Russell's game is not for everybody (right or wrong).

Turnover is just so sky-high right now across the NBA, especially on some of the middling teams like the Wolves, that I wouldn't bank on any long-term projections at this point.

I think a big part of this has to do with what role DLO sees himself playing on the Wolves and whether he can be happy deferring largely to KAT and Edwards in terms of touches and shots. This also assumes that Edwards continues his maturation as a ball handler and decision maker. For all of his explosiveness and emerging leadership qualities, he still settles for a lot of bad shots. He needs to be a bit careful about how much he calls others out.

Yeah... criticism can get dicey. As long as it's issued with a healthy dose of accountability, I'm mostly ok with it. But we hear "all the right things" from Towns, too. Meh.

Now on to the basketball stuff... anybody else notice defenders blitzing Edwards a bit further away from the hoop and forcing him into some awkward situations as if neither Edwards nor the opponent is fully confident in his handle in tight spaces? We've all seen Edward attack with speed and explosiveness, so it's almost like they're trying to get under him before he can build up that head of steam and his handles aren't quite ready yet to fully exploit it.

Might have been a couple/few isolated moments. I'm sure we'll see all sorts of approaches against Edwards if he continues on his ascent.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Yes Abe, I have noticed Edwards getting stymied at the point of attack a bit more. He's also going to have to develop some moxie and touch in that mid-range area because defenses are going to give him that space, but he looks very unpolished whenever he has to stop and pop or attempt a floater.

[FNG]

Apologies if this has already been posted but here is a video of Edwards post game. I haven't watched it all yet.

https://youtu.be/vIw0EYyiQjE

Thanks for this, monster- I had listened to the soundcloud, but seeing his body language is more revealing. I find it interesting how often he mentions Okogie, and I have a take on it. This interview was long after the game, and I'm sure there was much talk in the locker room after a disappointing loss. Josh had only 2 shots in the game (I think) and I suspect he was very vocal about wanting to be more involved in the offense. He has been quite consistent in his comments this fall about his intent to let it fly when he has an open look (whether this is a good thing or not is another matter). I sense Josh is a locker room leader like PatBev, and Ant mentioned him so frequently here because he had heard a lot from JO in the locker room. Just a guess, but I'm trying to understand why JO is so prominent in this interview.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

FNG, no offense, but the statistics you routinely rely on and reference on this board are definitely disputable. You are perhaps the biggest plus-minus junkie on this board despite my constant reminders as to why that metric fails to illustrate anything meaningful on its own. That's why I poke fun at it routinely on this board when the numeric value for a player doesn't match what we're literally watching during a live basketball game.

I also have a quibble with your use of individual Offensive/Defensive Ratings on Basketball Reference. Dean Oliver is the statistician responsible for constructing these stats and he emphasized in his book that these numbers shouldn't be viewed in a vacuum. They simply don't account for the role of said player nor the quality of teammates that share the floor with him. They are helpful metrics when they are used in conjunction with others, but on their own they fall far short of being the go-to stat, which is essentially what you use them as.

[Lipoli390]

Towns has issues but he is easily a max player and very good player. Let's not get too caught up in things here. Also I have zero problems with his overall effort this year. He is playing hard...It's just he is letting the foul game to get in his head. That's the issue.

Also the idea that KG had half the skill of Towns is ridiculous. First of all KG is one of the best defensive players of my lifetime. Towns should be better but just like offense defense is a skill and KG was one of the best ever IMO. Meanwhile KG was a hell of an offensive player too. I'm still convinced he could play any position on the court early in his career. Let's also remember that KG willing his team to the playoff for years was...getting 40-something wins. Towns is a good player and likely will go down and one of the best offensive centers in the game. Will he be a great player? If he has enough around him to win a championship or 2 then possibly. Pau Gasol was not always considered a great player. He needed to toughen up to win a championship. He wasn't the top dog though and Towns can be a really good player and I'll be happy with that. Could he be more? Yes maybe so that's why people are frustrated with him. Oh maybe the most annoying thing about Towns in this game was that rebound he went after when Russell basically had it secured and they lost it out of bounds.

I'll add that while Russell has been bad the past 2 games and I will say that (pretty obvious) I said the same things about Rubio a player ai like quite a bit. Both guys have track records that say they will be worthwhile players so I expect them to do more. Russell is a little more disappointing because he was playing really well in preseason so ai thought he might be ready to really get rolling. Like others have said he looks more engaged defensively so that's the bright spot. To me this game comes down to possibly being one of those games where the ball doesn't go in. That happens. It's too bad it happened game 3 of the season already but like Cam has mentioned they might come out and win against the bucks or some other unexpected with in the next few games and be right where we would like them to be.

The offense? Let's check in after 10-20 games and see if it's still a problem. It's a concern but with Finch I feel reasonably confident especially since the team has actually shown some serious effort on the defensive end. Those 2 aspects of the game are going to swing to some extent.

Great post, Monster. I think you put things in their proper perspective.

[FNG]

FNG, no offense, but the statistics you routinely rely on and reference on this board are definitely disputable. You are perhaps the biggest plus-minus junkie on this board despite my constant reminders as to why that metric fails to illustrate anything meaningful on its own. That's why I poke fun at it routinely on this board when the numeric value for a player doesn't match what we're literally watching during a live basketball game.

I also have a quibble with your use of individual Offensive/Defensive Ratings on Basketball Reference. Dean Oliver is the statistician responsible for constructing these stats and he emphasized in his book that these numbers shouldn't be viewed in a vacuum. They simply don't account for the role of said player nor the quality of teammates that share the floor with him. They are helpful metrics when they are used in conjunction with others, but on their own they fall far short of being the go-to stat, which is essentially what you use them as.

No offense taken- I agree that stats can't be taken in a vacuum or over a sample size that is too small. But that's why I look at a variety of Wig's and Dlo's career stats (now that they both have a large number of years in) and find that they are two outliers when it comes to $30 million players. The one measure they both do well in is PPG...Wig at 19.5 and Dlo at 17.6. But they both score in a remarkably inefficient manner. They have identical career TS% of 52.9%- far below the league average and even further below what you need from a max player. I agree that you can't look at net ratings on their own, but don't you find it interesting that DLo and Wig are the only max players who have never had a positive net rating? That's a telling stat that any objective fan simply can't ignore. And yes, we need to look at +/- stats too, but again not in a vacuum. But again if a fan is totally objective about a player's value, they are going to at least raise an eyebrow when they look at how poorly DLo has performed in this stat throughout his career. I get that the quality of teammates who are on the court with you enters into this stat, but having been on 4 different teams, DLo has probably played with a larger variety of teammates than almost any 7 year player, and I find it quite revealing that he has generally shown up worse than his own teammates in this one particular stat- regardless of the team he is on.

But there's one factor that makes me think DLo's contract hurts his team more than Wig's. As a role player, Wig doesn't dictate the style of play for his team. But there's no question that DLo does dictate the Wolves' style of play. Many have commented on it here. Our offense looks totally different when DLo is at the point compared to JMac, Rubio or even PatBev.

Cam, you're probably the biggest DLo supporter here, and I'm curious about the metrics you look at to evaluate him highly and even think we might extend him. Several here have pointed out metrics which demonstrate how little DLo does to help his team win, and you consistently say you don't put much stock in those measures. What are the stats you favor that might convince the DLo detractors here (and I am clearly one) that DLo is a positive contributor and even worth $20 million- much less a max contract?

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

The +/- stuff is important because it helps capture the hard to measure stuff that you can't measure through the traditional box score advanced metrics. I don't know how you do a comprehensive review of a player and exclude On/Off metrics. Granted, you need a bigger sample size, but it's an important metric.

DLO has a career net rating of -7.3 and a career net On/Off of -3.1 (net on/off is the difference in how the team performs when DLO is sitting vs. playing). And the numbers are pretty consistent. He's had a negative net rating Every. Single. Season. AND....he's had a negative net On/Off almost every single season (he was +.1 positive in '18-19).

That is impossible to ignore when this happens across multiple teams, multiple coaches, and multiple team mates. That means there is something fundamentally off with the way he plays the game. His defense and mediocre shooting efficiency are the things that stare us right in the face as the cause.

Does that mean he's unskilled and the trend will never change? Of course not and a lot of us are hoping that it changes. But this trend of his team doing worse when he plays versus when he doesn't play across multiple contexts simply can't be brushed aside as random noise.

[Monster]

Contracts and their percentage of spending are a significant reality of sports and to be honest that reality steals a piece of enjoyment from being a fan. I think it also can be something that keeps us from having a more accurate view of the player in general.

Personally I dont measure Russell's value up to his max contract (which is slightly lower than most max contracts in the NBA) but I try and figure out what I think his value is or realistically could be. I've said this before but if Russell plays like a guy worth 20 million I think honestly most will be happy here and assuming nothing terrible goes wrong that means Russell will help/be a part of a Wolves team that wins games.

As for the people that are again considering the future of the Wolves without him...him being a FA is now being measured in months rather than years. It's not that hard to move on from him if that's what you want.

If McLaughlin keeps playing well eventually we won't just be measuring based on him basically being a vet min guy we may start expecting more from him. I don't want to be trapped into thinking player X is or isn't worth his contract so that's the frame I look at him through.

Often the good sports franchises find ways around paying a guy too much by filling int he roster with players worth more than they are getting paid. Especially this early in the season I'm looking at what guys are going to be worth for the team this season. Hopefully we will be in the playoff hunt so we can wait till after the season is don't to really assess the roster going forward instead of the usual 1/2 or 3/4 way through the season.

[Jester1534]

My wife gave me a +2 for +- last night in the bedroom. I'm a career -1 if anyone cares lol.

All jokes a side as a nerd when it comes to baseball stats. This Static will always be stupid to me because you literally cant control the outcome of it. Its all about when you were out there and what time.