Free Agents - Who do you target?

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

To me, this isn't a "Free Agent Year". You sign free agents when you are close. Is anyone close, other than SAS? If GSW and CLE come back closely resembling what they are now & stay healthy, next season is already written.

So what is this summer? A trade summer for all the idiots who think they are accomplishing something. Do whatever POR deal they can, like Hill for Crabbe/#15 if necessary. Then make Aldrich/Belly/Dieng/Pek/Rubio available for young players and/or draft considerations, taking back all sorts of pupu to then re-trade or use as a bench.

It's time that we as fans write off the next year, and possibly more.

You just don't go from bottom feeder to contender overnight. We need to build a winning culture and that requires signing veteran players who are consistent in supporting our young stars. This constant rebuild needs to end. It's always wait for another draft pick, wait for another draft pick. We have the best young big man in the game. We have a 22 year old wing who is a top 16 scorer already and he doesn't even have a great handle or shot yet. We have another wing who's the dunk champ and can shoot the lights out. When is it enough to start think about getting them the help they need to start building a winning culture? 22 year olds don't run this league. Veterans do. So why are we expecting our 22 year olds to just keep carrying the load with a shit supporting cast holding on to cap space that's just going to be reallocated to them in the next 2 summers with nothing left to add anyone at that point? This summer and next summer are the only two "free agent years" we have left. After that you have to start trading away pieces just to open up the cap space to sign anyone.

Agreed. Of the 5-7 vets I mentioned in my other post, some of those guys will be Kevin Ollie types who will provide mentoring. And yes, 22 y/o's don't run the league, or MIN would be running the league. And I don't really care about "the load" of the next two seasons. Maybe even tee-ay-en-kay.

Yes, I would like to see it end. But to what end? Constant 41 win/#8 seeds? No thanks.

Imagine 2-3 years from now with 8 or so good players right around 25. It could happen. This roster as currently constructed beating GSW or SAS as they are currently constructed? Monumental upset if any chance at all.

You can't sign a free agent for more than 4 years so why is signing someone this offseason just perpetual 8 seed forever? 8 good players in 2-3 years around 25 can't happen in this CBA. You don't think if Dunn and our pick this year and next year in you scenario become those good players that teams will just over price them in restricted free agency and make us get rid of them anyway? We literally won't be able to afford that many good young players at one time. Think of a guy like Green from Memphis this summer. Someone might offer him 20 million just to stick that contract on the Grizzlies or have them lose him and there goes about 20% of your cap if you keep him or he's obviously not on your team anymore if you don't match. In your scenario you'd have to avoid that probably 4-5 times to keep that team together. Won't happen.

The old mentoring vets do nothing for this team at this point. We need the guys that give us 20 minutes a night off the bench to give us 20 good minutes almost every game. That can't be done by the mentoring vets or the Brandon Rush/Cole Aldrich's of the world. Those guys will never lift your bench high enough to win you a game. They are support pieces for stars in GS and LA and we don't have those stars yet.

You bring in vets to get the 8 seed this year and then let the natural development of Towns, Wiggins, Lavine, Dunn and the 7th pick this year take you higher once they start winning and then understanding what it takes to get to an even higher level of contender status. If you just keep waiting we'll just have a bunch of depressed/pissed off 25 year olds who can't make the playoffs consistently and want to get out and go to a better situation because you refused to ever get them proper support pieces. Or do you just want Towns, Wiggins and Zach to end up like Love and we perpetually rebuild again by trading them?

Well, I was going to keep this civil, but since you're losing your widdle temper again, here goes.
1. What's with you and the #8 seed? Are the kids on the activity bus with Parise jerseys giving you crap again? And I live in Orlando. I've seen lottery to #4 seed to Eastern conference champs. So it can be done, but you have to do it right (and get some luck, but still).

2. How is it that The Vikes were about 8 plays, or 2 running backs and 2 offensive tackles, away from being the best team in the NFC and you have nothing nice to say about them, but the Wolves are 5 players away from being the 8th seed, and you're like "Hey, any day now."? I know why, but I want to hear you say it. You don't know anything, and you get your info from Barriero/Reusse/the rest of the "KFAN gang" and that's how they talk.

3. I will sum up the 16/17 Wolves for you: Two great young players playing out of position putting up good offensive #'s because they played ALL the minutes, 3 passable other starters (BRR, GD, SM who is now a FA), and NOTHING from 6 thru 15. Nothing. There is not 4 moves MIN can make OR afford in F/A that gets them 12 playoff wins against SAS, GSW, and CLE 12 months from now. No. NoNoNoNO.

4. Do you have nothing better to do than dream about which average players MIN can sign to four years deals for more money than they deserve when GSW and CLE may be unbeatable for 3 years? No homework? No Angry Birds? Nothing?

I got some moves for you that makes MIN immediately younger and better. More expensive, but younger and better

Hill to POR for Crabbe/#15/#26. I love this move because POR is another disillusioned franchise that thinks they can complete and this keeps them from a complete overhaul. What is it about these code guys that makes them think they know everything? So now MIN is right at the cap with 10 players signed and 3 firsts.

Next: OK so "The King of Williston" wants Blonde Ricky and hates Carmelo. OK. BRR/CA/NB/#26 to NYK. Carmelo to LAL. Hernangomez/Randle/Russel and the Lakers choice of Mozgov or Deng to MIN (positives and negatives with either one).

AND they still have Dieng to either play or trade, and Pek to send to IND in a George to CLE deal in which they get young assets/picks. (George to CLE, Pek/Dieng to IND, Smith/Schumpert/assets/picks to MIN?)

There. I just got MIN 4 players who will be 25 or younger in 3 years (#15, Hernangomez, Randle, Russell) to go with KAT/AW/ZL/#7, and made them BETTER NEXT YEAR without SIGNING anyone. Now go do your homework and brush your teeth. The Talmud Torah bus will be there at 7am.

I don't even really know how to respond to so much misrepresentation of what I actually think. Maybe don't make up shit in your own head that you think I'm thinking and actually pay attention to what I'm saying. We're years away from contending, but you have to start making the playoffs at some point to ever get to contending. This cycle of free agents Imo should get us into the playoffs and help us build a winning culture for the next 3-4 years so when Towns, Wiggins and Zach enter their prime we have expiring deals to help make a move to find the final piece or two to lift us to contender status whether that be by trade or to help us potentially generate the cap space.

You're great under 25 team lasts 2 years and then gets broken up by basic free agency tactics. That sounds like a great idea. That's what happens when you put so many guys with their contracts up in the same 2 summers on the same team. You think Crabbe got a big deal? Imagine what Russell and Randle will get when everyone knows we have to pay Zach, Andrew and Towns? They'd both be gone in 2 years. Nice fucking plan. Way to do the math on that one dumbass.

You're whole shit post was bashing me for wanting this team to do something I don't even want them to do. Keep up the great work.

Bullshit. You want MIN to overpay now for guys who won't make the Wolves contenders because you consider the #8 seed some important moment. It's not. Go to the Pelicans board and ask their fans. And maybe just stay there.

And all these guys like Crabbe were signed when the cap was really shooting up. It's not going to anymore. So the money won't be there to pluck good players away from MIN once the Wolves start performing. SIGNING guys you don't really want versus just absorbing them in a salary dump is bad policy, and who says they can't be the 8th seed with the moves I suggested, because they will be better. You're done. Now go clean your room.

Who the fuck are you to tell me what I want? You're just wrong. That's not what I'm saying and your plan doesn't work. There are always bad teams with cap space and guys like Russell and Randle would easily be the best guys to pluck away from a team in the last few years in restricted free agency. It wouldn't work. But feel free to keep day dreaming about bullshit and thinking it's ok to keep missing the playoffs saving all that cap space for the right time and then see it completely gone in two years with nothing to show for it.

Don't show up to a board talking about how great an #8 seed would be then say that's not what you want. And don't give me some "daydream" about how the #8 seed automatically leads to something better. Most times it doesn't. Something better leads to something better.

My plan absolutely works. Nobody is beating GSW for at least 3 years. So guys in their late 20's or early 30's aren't helping 3 years from now. You have to plan for that.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: David Kahn used to say he read all the message boards. Now was he the only one, or the only one who admits it? Either way, I am not interested in anybody with any power on the Wolves reading your crap and thinking "Now THAT is a true representation of a Wolves fan." So Wolves Brass, listen up: I WANT A CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!!!!!!!! Not an #8 seed, not Kahns overpaying some guy who had a good NCAA tournament game once, A CHAMPIONSHIP. And if its' not happening in June 2018, don't act like it is and start preparing for a time where it could. I'm old enough that I remember that time Mchale made one good draft pick and then they were #8 seed and swept for like 8 years and didn't get better until THEY GOT BETTER. So GET BETTER or prepare for the future. Full stop.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

What teams have kept the same top 7-8 players for the last 4 years and longer? Not even the Cavs and Warriors can say that. But ya, we can totally do that. What a realistic plan. Now we just wait for those major multi-team trades to happen this offseason and we're set for a decade. Why can't management just do something that easy and then manage to keep them all while their contracts are all up the next two summers without going into the luxury tax? It's so easy how could they not do it?

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Here's the math on your plan Jason and it's the main reason why it doesn't work.

Cap figures with Crabbe, Mozgov (cheaper than Deng), Dieng, Wiggins, Aldrich, Towns, Russell, Dunn, Randle, Lavine, Jones, Hernangomez 12 players and 13-14 are draft picks who I didn't account for in anything but even further complicate things down the line:

2017-18: 88.7 million with 12 players (100.3 if Pek doesn't get his medical retirement) rookies also not included

2018-19: 96 million for 9 players with Randle and Lavine hitting RFA at the same time

2019-20: 109.2 million for 7 players before accounting for Randle and Lavine's salary from the year prior and adding Russell and Tyus to restricted free agency themselves.

So let's say Randle and Lavine get 15 million each which is way under what they will get, but you seem to believe teams won't try to pry them away from us because nobody will have cap space. That puts us at 126 million with 11 players plus our rookies. That's not luxury tax levels yet, but that is over the cap by probably 15-16 million.

Then the next offseason KAT gets his max and Russell hits RFA. We're at 141.2 before even signing Russell so say he gets 15 which is again way under what he will get. That's 156.2 which is in the luxury tax.

Mozgov and Crabbe finally come off the books the following summer in 2020-21 which is too late because you already have KAT, Wiggins, Lavine, Randle and Russell putting us at the cap for only 5 players. Dunn is in restricted free agency and could be easily sniped because of how bloated the team salary is.

So you've now built a team too young to win anything in the next 3 years anyway and you are a tax payer at the end with 2 years on your shortest deals in Zach and Randle still to go so tax payers every year through their prime racking up massive luxury tax bills when our ownership may not even want to go into the luxury tax to begin with. And all that was with extremely conservative salary estimates and not including our rookies from this year's draft. That tax bill is ludicrous if you factor in what all the RFA's would actually make and it would only take 1 team to make a big offer to Randle or Russell to completely fuck us over. Great plan. And that may not even be good enough to be a contender at the end of the day.

[Lipoli390]

This will be our last summer for some time when we have significant cap room. That suggests this is the summer to pursue free agents who are potential difference-makers, not old mentors or bit players who can be signed down the road using the mid level exception. KAT is entering his 3rd NBA season. Wiggins and LaVine are entering their 4th season. Gorgui is entering his 5th season. Ricky is entering his 7th season after years playing pro basketball in Europe. These aren't a bunch of babes in the woods desperately needed old mentors to guide them. They need to improve their individual games through hard work and they could benefit from better players around them.

I don't know who we can realistically expect to sign this summer. Probably not Millsap or any of the true stars who've become free agents. But perhaps a Sefalosha, Redick, Tucker or Taj Gibson. We can debate which, if any, of these free agents would be a "difference-maker." I don't have a strong opinion on who we should pursue, but I'm hoping that Thibs makes the right decision. Nevertheless, at the end of the day, the success of this team rides primarily on the improvement of our young talent and our head coach's ability to get the most out of them as a cohesive team. Michael Jordan's Bulls didn't become a playoff team immediately. They took their big leap to 50 wins in Jordan's 4th season when he was joined by two rookies named Scottie Pippen and Horace Grant. Oh, and that was Phil Jackson's first season. You'll note that no particularly impactful older vets were added that season. Jordan's continued development along with adding a critical mass of high level young talent (Pippen and Grant) and a new terrific head coach added up to a jump from 40 to 50 wins. You can look back at the Thunder's first 50-win season and you'll see that Durant was in his 3rd season, Westbrook in his 2nd season, Harden and Ibaka in their rookie season, Jeff Green in his 3rd season, and Sefalosha in his 4th.

Also needs to be said: CHI began to peak as BOS & DET got old, not when those teams at the top of the conference were in the conversation as best teams ever. And looking back, I have a tough time with proclaiming OKC as the model. Should have traded Perkins and all those firsts they didn't even want for more immediate production. Not-a-great-guy Clay Bennett wouldn't pay the lux to keep Harden. And what becomes OKC if there is better basketball people in POR/MIA/MEM to draft Durant/Westbrook/Harden? And if it worked out so well, why did Durant have the car running in the parking lot for all of June 2016?

I wasn't proclaiming OKC as a model organization, even though I think they've been pretty successful over the past 5 years. My point, using OKC and the Bulls as examples, was that old mentoring vets aren't critical to the success of an NBA team. Instead it's mainly about drafting well and hiring the right coach to get the most out of the talent you draft. Jordan was, and Durant is, a great player. Their teams became really good with the addition of even younger talented players through the draft and, in Chicago's case, with the hiring of a new head coach. That's the model for the Wolves success -- our young talent improving and our coach getting the most out of them. Getting one or two good free agents this summer would help this next season and drafting well would help the Wolves longer term. But If KAT, Wiggins, Zach and Dunn don't improve, then who we sign and draft this summer won't matter much. That's my point.

[Monster]

This is an interesting Q and A with Pelton. He has some data that suggest bigger PGs tend to peak later than smaller PGs do.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19525455/kevin-pelton-weekly-mailbag-including-point-guard-career-arcs

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

This is an interesting Q and A with Pelton. He has some data that suggest bigger PGs tend to peak later than smaller PGs do.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19525455/kevin-pelton-weekly-mailbag-including-point-guard-career-arcs

So Rubio is just getting started according to this! Yeah baby!

I think his sample size is too small to draw any firm conclusions (which he admits). However, if you think about the real small players, they tend to rely on quickness more than the bigger PGs. That lightning quick first step or cross-over may be the first thing to start deteriorating a bit as a player ages. And little PGs don't have much room for error.

I do think Isiah Thomas is fool's gold and my guess is Ainge knows it. I expect them to draft Fulz and then elegantly figure out a way to integrate him with IT, eventually displacing him as their starting PG in a season or two.

[thedoper]

Too bad Marco Jaric didn't read Pelton's article

[Monster]

Jerry West is going to the Clippers. That's very interesting I did not see that coming.

[Lipoli390]

Jerry West is going to the Clippers. That's very interesting I did not see that coming.

As a player? :)

[60WinTim]

Given Taylor's comments, Sefolosha looks like a very likely target. Someone who can slow down the opponents best scorer. We probably have to over pay, but over paying someone like Sefolosha is not going to break the bank. Drew listed Sefolosha, Tucker and Tony Allen as reasonable targets back on page one. Any one of them would be a solid addition, but I like Thabo the best.