The Case for Towns

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

:)

[mrhockey89]

The writing seems to be on the wall....

TimberWolves
ToWns
Towns-Wiggins

[A Friendly Flatulence [enjin:8907904]]

The writing seems to be on the wall....

TimberWolves
ToWns
Towns-Wiggins

Sound logic, no complaints here

[Crazysauce]

Or you could say
M for muhammad and minnesota
T for towns or timber
W for wiggins and wolves

Our last three drafts spells it out. Mr hockey your a genius. Now i have no doubt it has to be towns. The final piece to our puzzle. Unless we change our names to the the minnesota otter wolves here soon its got to be towns

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I'm curious what people missed all year long that kept Towns below the top spot literally until the tourney and now they have him ranked in the same tier as Griffin, Wall, AD and nobody else. There were never questions during their college campaigns that they were the top guys those years. I hope Towns can live up to the hype because the train has traveled a long distance this year and doesn't appear to have any brakes.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

I don't think I'm necessarily representative of the consensus, but maybe my shift on Towns can help explain what, I agree, seems to be a significant shift toward Towns at the very end of the season and now in the offseason.

I highly doubt Towns will be as good as Griffin, Wall, and AD as an offensive player. I think people who think he will be that good offensively are taking things too far. But I'm now definitely and thoroughly convinced he's the best pick for #1 because his of his combination of defensive impact and overall versatility for a big man. This combination is the sort of thing that doesn't necessarily show up eye-poppingly in the box score, but will significantly help a team. I don't think he'll be as good defensively as Gobert or Jordan, but he'll be close, and at the same time give the team some (efficient) options offensively that those guys don't give. I was skeptical of his ability to stretch the floor, and I'm still a little wary of any potential 3 point shooting from him, but after these videos and testimonials about his shooting have come out, I'm much more satisfied about that than I was during the season. That overall flexibility will be key as the league evolves, plus he just fits in to so many different lineups because of it. Others have fleshed this out in more detail, but I think that's the overall explanation for why he deserves to be the #1 pick.

So why didn't the consensus think this earlier? A few reasons, I would guess.

1) Part of it has to do with people looking at Okafor more critically. Clearly, Okafor was the better player in terms of raw numbers during the season. Nobody can dispute that at all, and even the extrapolations that people make of Towns' numbers are still just that, extrapolations. But I think in particular as Golden State made its run in the playoffs, people starting thinking more and more about the future of the league going small, and guys like Okafor don't seem to fit into that picture as well as guys like Towns. I think some of these folks are being way too dismissive of Okafor based on Golden State's run (and the idea of small ball is oddly becoming a new kind of conventional thinking coming from people who have long criticized the conventional thinking of a low-post scorer). But there's something legitimate to it. If the league is changing, having more flexible players (especially if they can play the toughest positions (PG and C)) is just a safe bet that you can adjust with the league, and also with the talent you have. Okafor doesn't bring that flexibility. Towns does.

2) Towns WAS impressive down the stretch. All of his meager statistical games (which still give me a little pause) through the year that made many of us convinced Okafor was a safer bet, started to seem less and less significant when Kentucky relied more and more on him down the stretch and he delivered. Interestingly, I've seen several reports that have shown that relying on players' performance in the tourney usually makes people overvalue (remember Derrick Williams!) or undervalue players. Maybe that's happening here a little bit. But still, watching Towns in the tourney made me less afraid of him as a prospect.

3) Towns' draft stock improved even more (he was already getting talked about as being a potential number 1 during the tourney) when the season finished and the number crunchers started looking into more advanced stats and driving the narrative. During the season, the most obvious thing to look at are the immediate numbers, and Okafor is clearly better there. And just watching video, frankly, Okafor is SO impressive on the offensive end, and in such a rare skill the league hasn't seen for such a long time, it's not surprising to think of how he was the longtime consensus number 1 pick. But when we turned from watching games to crunching advanced numbers, these analytics guys started to join forces with the theoretical guys who talked about the game going small, and the picture just pointed more and more to Towns.

4) Towns' shooting went from something that was a rumor to something people had enough video of and testimonial about to believe.

If we're honest with ourselves, who knows?! Maybe Mudiay or Russell or Porzingaling end up becoming the best player in the draft. But based on what we know right now, I agree with the consensus that it's Towns. That's a consensus that may have coalesced later than usual with a number 1 pick, which is a reason to stop and be careful about this pick (which I'm really glad Flip seems to have done despite the very unfair criticism from some pro-Towns posters here who should get ready for the possibility they'll eat crow after predicting for months that Flip is sure to pick Okafor because he's an idiot and a traditionalist--you guys know who you are). But in the end, I think the late shift to Towns is based on enough solid evidence and reasons to say he's the best pick for #1. Sometimes you don't come to the right decision until the end, and it's better to go through due diligence to sort this out carefully to make the best decision rather than be the first to tout a player (especially if you do that in a very one-sided manner). That's why I've been really thankful for some of the thoughtful posts from guys like Q, who have treated this decision more like a discussion than a debate. That's what's always made this board (and the ESPN one before it) great, and it's what good decision makers should do as well.

[60WinTim]

Nicely done, Drew!

Two points that are worth emphasizing are 1) Calipari forced Towns to develop an NBA low post game this college season, and 2) Towns minutes were limited not because of production, but primarily due to depth on the Kentucky roster. Towns game grew during the college season, which is a significant reason he over took Okafor for the #1 spot. And after playing a full college season, Okafor's warts, defense and free throw shooting, became exposed, while none developed on Towns.

And I will add one more factor you did not touch on: the difference between the two in interviews. There is a stark difference in personality, charisma and intellect between Towns and Okafor. Towns looks the part of a #1 pick in interviews. I don't see that in Okafor. And it goes farther back than just this past year if you spend time reviewing interviews over the past few years.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Nice post Drew and very well explained. I agree that Towns may not be a dominant star that will go 25 and 12 night in and night out. I liken him to a bigger version of Al Horford or LaMarcus Aldridge, which is a smart, really good 2-way player.

I was on the Okafor as #1 pick train for quite a while, until two things happened: 1) Towns improved throughout the year and started making more and more of an impact; 2) DX put him at #1. I respect DX more than any other draft site/pundit, so that really influenced me.

Cam is really the only guy on this board (that I can remember) that started with Towns as #1 and stuck with him through and through. Props to him.

[Phenom]

It's not unprecedented that the consensus top guy holds the top spot throughout most of the year only to lose it in the end. Jahlil Okafor was #1 until April. Shabazz Muhammad was #1 until late May. Ricky Rubio was #1 until late March. Michael Beasley was #1 until late May. This is just a product of the one and done system I think. These highly touted kids come into college with a ton of hype and it takes a long time for draft experts to come to terms with moving them down a peg or two. It has to be played out in the season and for Towns, it was and now he is here.

[Monster]

Okafor has some legit weaknesses including defense (questioned from the beginning of the season) 1.4 blocks a game for someone that size with that level of basketball talent is not impressive Kevin Love averaged that many. Guys unlikely to be drafted were better than him defensively in the Chanpionship game.

Everyone seems to be saying he is a gifted scorer and has that star quality because of it. Why despite ridiculous shooting percentages did he only score 17ppg? He only got to the line 5 times a game.

What's Okafor's real ceiling? Can you realy project him to be anything above a slightly above average defender?

Towns it's easy to project him as a terrific defensive player plus he has some legit signs of being a good offensive player. A hook shot 80% from the FT line plus plenty of athletic ability. I see way more chance of Towns becoming a pretty good scorer than Okafor becoming a pretty good defender.

To me there are just some real issues with Okafor that give me pause. I don't like his lack of physicality on both ends of the court. That's big to me. Towns has more upside to me than Okafor. I think some people underrate his offensive potential. Keep in mind I am not really a fanboy of any of these top 3 guys. You can bet all the people in the NBA that get paid to evaluate talent have picked over all the Okafor's weaknesses as much or more than what we have on this board. Towns isn't a perfect prospect either however I will take a guy that's shown promise in shorter periods of time with higher upside and I think that's what Towns is the better prospect.