Reality check for some...

[FNG]

https://www.minnesotasportsfan.com/sportsbooks-draftkings-fanduel-expect-minnesota-timberwolves-to-take-giant-step-back-next-season/

For those who think we're now a perennial 46 win team (or better) as constructed, this might be a huge reality check for you. Like I said previously in other threads, we were probably a 38-40 win team last year, but we played in a conference that got hammered by injuries, while we had pretty good health. Well, Vegas and the sports books seem to agree with me. They have us finishing 10th in the west next season as currently constructed. Obviously you're entitled to your opinion, but it's pretty hard to argue with a prediction that we'll finish somewhere in the 8-10 range next year. So again, we AIN'T a perennial 46 win team now, and when we win 40 games next year I don't wanna hear about how we regressed. If we win 40 games next year (assuming equal health for all teams), we might have actually improved. Im as excited as anyone about the future of this team, but I just think we need to lower the bar a bit still.

This is not a popular take here, d, but I think you are being fairly realistic...although I end up a little more optimistic than you and Vegas. Here's how I look at it. We won 26 (normalized to 82 games) games in 20-21, but I think almost all of us here think we were better than our record and would have had more wins with better injury luck. Personally, I think we were a 32-win team that season with normal injury luck. But if we're going to be intellectually honest, we have to admit that our 46 wins last year were significantly aided by some unbelievably good fortune on the injury front...we were relatively healthy, and more often than not, our opponents were missing either their best player or players or at least multiple starters. I thought the previous season was unlucky, but this season was flat out bizarre. So just as we were not as bad as our record in 20-21, we were not nearly as good as our record in 21-22...it would be totally disingenuous and homeristic to conclude otherwise. I think we were a 39-win team last year with normal injuries on both sides (I see you have arrived at the same conclusion) My proforma analysis given normal injuries:

2020-21: 32 wins
2021-22: 39 wins,
and my prediction for next year (assuming no huge lineup changes):
2022-23: 44 wins

And I think we should be happy with that. I don't think anyone here would argue that we didn't improve this season, and a 7-win improvement on a pro forma basis is significant improvement...22% more wins. I think even without some major moves by Connelly we improve again next year, and we win 44 games and probably at least make the play-in tournament.

But while I'd be satisfied with the kind of pro forma wins improvement above, I'm greedier than that. I see star potential in Ant, a unicorn in KAT, a terrific coach, a win-now ownership group, and some promising young role players (along with PatBev). Like many here, I think this team can make a quantum leap next year if Connelly is able to transform DLo's max contract into a gritty, defensive rebounding PF (and no, I'm not going to surmise who that is...that's Tim's job). If the new power forward is a big upgrade over Vando (and that's a relatively low bar) and you add free agent Jones to the mix to team up with PatBev and JMac at PG, I think we put ourselves in position to challenge for a top 4 seed.

So either way...big off-season moves or not, I'm guardedly optimistic about the direction of this franchise. And I completely agree with your (and Vegas's) conclusion that we were closer to a 38-40 win team last year than a 46-win team...and that's still a very nice improvement over the previous season.

[Coolbreeze44]

The East actually had a small advantage over the West last year in terms of record. The West isn't the juggernaut it once was. If things hold we just need to be better than half the league to make the playoffs again. Not that making the playoffs should be our end game. Decisions made this offseason are crucial to the direction of the franchise. Hopefully Connelly takes some big swings to try and set us up for more growth, even if it doesn't happen next season.

[Lipoli390]

The East actually had a small advantage over the West last year in terms of record. The West isn't the juggernaut it once was. If things hold we just need to be better than half the league to make the playoffs again. Not that making the playoffs should be our end game. Decisions made this offseason are crucial to the direction of the franchise. Hopefully Connelly takes some big swings to try and set us up for more growth, even if it doesn't happen next season.

Good points, Cool. I don't know if Connelly needs to take big swings. But he has to take some healthy cuts at the ball this summer. I totally agree that he should be thinking mid to long term rather than focusing entirely on next season.

[D-Mac [enjin:19736340]]

https://www.minnesotasportsfan.com/sportsbooks-draftkings-fanduel-expect-minnesota-timberwolves-to-take-giant-step-back-next-season/

For those who think we're now a perennial 46 win team (or better) as constructed, this might be a huge reality check for you. Like I said previously in other threads, we were probably a 38-40 win team last year, but we played in a conference that got hammered by injuries, while we had pretty good health. Well, Vegas and the sports books seem to agree with me. They have us finishing 10th in the west next season as currently constructed. Obviously you're entitled to your opinion, but it's pretty hard to argue with a prediction that we'll finish somewhere in the 8-10 range next year. So again, we AIN'T a perennial 46 win team now, and when we win 40 games next year I don't wanna hear about how we regressed. If we win 40 games next year (assuming equal health for all teams), we might have actually improved. Im as excited as anyone about the future of this team, but I just think we need to lower the bar a bit still.

This is not a popular take here, d, but I think you are being fairly realistic...although I end up a little more optimistic than you and Vegas. Here's how I look at it. We won 26 (normalized to 82 games) games in 20-21, but I think almost all of us here think we were better than our record and would have had more wins with better injury luck. Personally, I think we were a 32-win team that season with normal injury luck. But if we're going to be intellectually honest, we have to admit that our 46 wins last year were significantly aided by some unbelievably good fortune on the injury front...we were relatively healthy, and more often than not, our opponents were missing either their best player or players or at least multiple starters. I thought the previous season was unlucky, but this season was flat out bizarre. So just as we were not as bad as our record in 20-21, we were not nearly as good as our record in 21-22...it would be totally disingenuous and homeristic to conclude otherwise. I think we were a 39-win team last year with normal injuries on both sides (I see you have arrived at the same conclusion) My proforma analysis given normal injuries:

2020-21: 32 wins
2021-22: 39 wins,
and my prediction for next year (assuming no huge lineup changes):
2022-23: 44 wins

And I think we should be happy with that. I don't think anyone here would argue that we didn't improve this season, and a 7-win improvement on a pro forma basis is significant improvement...22% more wins. I think even without some major moves by Connelly we improve again next year, and we win 44 games and probably at least make the play-in tournament.

But while I'd be satisfied with the kind of pro forma wins improvement above, I'm greedier than that. I see star potential in Ant, a unicorn in KAT, a terrific coach, a win-now ownership group, and some promising young role players (along with PatBev). Like many here, I think this team can make a quantum leap next year if Connelly is able to transform DLo's max contract into a gritty, defensive rebounding PF (and no, I'm not going to surmise who that is...that's Tim's job). If the new power forward is a big upgrade over Vando (and that's a relatively low bar) and you add free agent Jones to the mix to team up with PatBev and JMac at PG, I think we put ourselves in position to challenge for a top 4 seed.

So either way...big off-season moves or not, I'm guardedly optimistic about the direction of this franchise. And I completely agree with your (and Vegas's) conclusion that we were closer to a 38-40 win team last year than a 46-win team...and that's still a very nice improvement over the previous season.

Thanks FNG, I'm glad you see it the same and I like the wins conversion you did over the three years. If we're going to say we were better than a 26 win team the one year, we also have to admit that we were worse than a 46 win team last year... it just stands to reason.

To Pork, I obviously love Ants potential, but i don't think Ant being a top 10 player next year is the likely outcome. I think he will make the all star team (aided by the exposure he got in the playoffs), so I guess I'd bet on top 20-25 next year and maybe top 10-15 the following year.

I think Jaden makes the biggest improvement next year. Also, I'm predicting that Dlo gets traded this off-season (I'm ok letting him expire, but I think Connelly moves him this off-season) and we take a one year step backward in order to develop some other options at the PG position. Whether that's giving more minutes to nowell, jmac, bolmaro or if it's drafting a PG at 19 or signing someone like tyus, or maybe grabbing someone in a trade, I think Connelly will change course at PG with more of a view toward the future.

I think understanding if we're really a legit 46 win team is so important because it determines what our next steps should be. Usually if a young team wins 46 games and makes a decent showing in the 1st round, it might be time to add a couple good vets. I think Connelly realizes that we were really a 38-40 win team last year and that we're still very much in the building stage.

[Lipoli390]

https://www.minnesotasportsfan.com/sportsbooks-draftkings-fanduel-expect-minnesota-timberwolves-to-take-giant-step-back-next-season/

For those who think we're now a perennial 46 win team (or better) as constructed, this might be a huge reality check for you. Like I said previously in other threads, we were probably a 38-40 win team last year, but we played in a conference that got hammered by injuries, while we had pretty good health. Well, Vegas and the sports books seem to agree with me. They have us finishing 10th in the west next season as currently constructed. Obviously you're entitled to your opinion, but it's pretty hard to argue with a prediction that we'll finish somewhere in the 8-10 range next year. So again, we AIN'T a perennial 46 win team now, and when we win 40 games next year I don't wanna hear about how we regressed. If we win 40 games next year (assuming equal health for all teams), we might have actually improved. Im as excited as anyone about the future of this team, but I just think we need to lower the bar a bit still.

This is not a popular take here, d, but I think you are being fairly realistic...although I end up a little more optimistic than you and Vegas. Here's how I look at it. We won 26 (normalized to 82 games) games in 20-21, but I think almost all of us here think we were better than our record and would have had more wins with better injury luck. Personally, I think we were a 32-win team that season with normal injury luck. But if we're going to be intellectually honest, we have to admit that our 46 wins last year were significantly aided by some unbelievably good fortune on the injury front...we were relatively healthy, and more often than not, our opponents were missing either their best player or players or at least multiple starters. I thought the previous season was unlucky, but this season was flat out bizarre. So just as we were not as bad as our record in 20-21, we were not nearly as good as our record in 21-22...it would be totally disingenuous and homeristic to conclude otherwise. I think we were a 39-win team last year with normal injuries on both sides (I see you have arrived at the same conclusion) My proforma analysis given normal injuries:

2020-21: 32 wins
2021-22: 39 wins,
and my prediction for next year (assuming no huge lineup changes):
2022-23: 44 wins

And I think we should be happy with that. I don't think anyone here would argue that we didn't improve this season, and a 7-win improvement on a pro forma basis is significant improvement...22% more wins. I think even without some major moves by Connelly we improve again next year, and we win 44 games and probably at least make the play-in tournament.

But while I'd be satisfied with the kind of pro forma wins improvement above, I'm greedier than that. I see star potential in Ant, a unicorn in KAT, a terrific coach, a win-now ownership group, and some promising young role players (along with PatBev). Like many here, I think this team can make a quantum leap next year if Connelly is able to transform DLo's max contract into a gritty, defensive rebounding PF (and no, I'm not going to surmise who that is...that's Tim's job). If the new power forward is a big upgrade over Vando (and that's a relatively low bar) and you add free agent Jones to the mix to team up with PatBev and JMac at PG, I think we put ourselves in position to challenge for a top 4 seed.

So either way...big off-season moves or not, I'm guardedly optimistic about the direction of this franchise. And I completely agree with your (and Vegas's) conclusion that we were closer to a 38-40 win team last year than a 46-win team...and that's still a very nice improvement over the previous season.

Thanks FNG, I'm glad you see it the same and I like the wins conversion you did over the three years. If we're going to say we were better than a 26 win team the one year, we also have to admit that we were worse than a 46 win team last year... it just stands to reason.

To Pork, I obviously love Ants potential, but i don't think Ant being a top 10 player next year is the likely outcome. I think he will make the all star team (aided by the exposure he got in the playoffs), so I guess I'd bet on top 20-25 next year and maybe top 10-15 the following year.

I think Jaden makes the biggest improvement next year. Also, I'm predicting that Dlo gets traded this off-season (I'm ok letting him expire, but I think Connelly moves him this off-season) and we take a one year step backward in order to develop some other options at the PG position. Whether that's giving more minutes to nowell, jmac, bolmaro or if it's drafting a PG at 19 or signing someone like tyus, or maybe grabbing someone in a trade, I think Connelly will change course at PG with more of a view toward the future.

I think understanding if we're really a legit 46 win team is so important because it determines what our next steps should be. Usually if a young team wins 46 games and makes a decent showing in the 1st round, it might be time to add a couple good vets. I think Connelly realizes that we were really a 38-40 win team last year and that we're still very much in the building stage.

DL -- Great point about understanding exactly where your team is at. I agree with you that the Wolves aren't a true 46-win team ready to ramp up to 54. They are more in line with what you've described. And that's why I think you're right that this team is still in the building stage, not the final refinement stage of development. For that reason, it's important to keep adding young talent and focus on the mid to long term. Ant is our best player and he's only 21 years old entering his third season. KAT is a vet, but a young one as he just enters him prime at age 26. I agree that Connelly realizes where this team is at and the types of moves he needs to make.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Good grief, we're doing this already? The off-season hasn't even unfolded yet. Not to mention, the Timberwolves were underrated heading into last year too. They've earned that over years and years -- decades -- of incompetence, but things appear to be significantly different now. These oddsmakers set the win total low last season and probably will do the same for next season, but at least wait until after the draft and free agency. The entire league could look different in a matter of a month.

This aged well.

[Lipoli390]

Good grief, we're doing this already? The off-season hasn't even unfolded yet. Not to mention, the Timberwolves were underrated heading into last year too. They've earned that over years and years -- decades -- of incompetence, but things appear to be significantly different now. These oddsmakers set the win total low last season and probably will do the same for next season, but at least wait until after the draft and free agency. The entire league could look different in a matter of a month.

This aged well.

Lol. Sure did!

[kekgeek]

I'm so disappointed in my buddy was in Illinois (where he can legally sports gamble) and the wolves opened up yesterday at 110-1 to win it all and I legit thought about it for trade insurance. Now they are down to 25-1 in some places

[D-Mac [enjin:19736340]]

Good grief, we're doing this already? The off-season hasn't even unfolded yet. Not to mention, the Timberwolves were underrated heading into last year too. They've earned that over years and years -- decades -- of incompetence, but things appear to be significantly different now. These oddsmakers set the win total low last season and probably will do the same for next season, but at least wait until after the draft and free agency. The entire league could look different in a matter of a month.

This aged well.

Seriously? What's wrong with you dude?