Minnesota Sports Forum

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Jester1534 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:I think Patrick Beverley is my MVP up to this point in the season. He has done what Thibs, Butler, and Taj couldn't do and that's change the defensive culture of this team. Obviously it helps that he has some capable sidekicks like Vando, McDaniels, and Okogie. I also think the scheme they use is more suited to our player personnel. But the key is getting the trio of Ant-DLO-KAT to be net positives on that side of the floor, or at least not the train wrecks they have historically been.

Watch out Q you might get in trouble saying a change coaching scheme and philosophy has helped this team be best wolves defensive team in years. I've been told coaching doesn't matter at all. It's almost like a coaches job is to put his players in the next position to succeed and with our big three on defense Finch has done that this year.

I agree 100%, although I refuse to give CLQ stallion jester a "like". I agree with Q that PatBev is our MVP so far by almost singlehandedly changing our defensive culture. But Finch has a role in this also. For the second consecutive game, I winced when KAT doubled up top on the initial offensive play of the game allowing an easy bucket for the opposing center. But Finch encouraging KAT to avoid the drop defense and press the action up top has produced terrific results. And I'm guessing Satoransky had nightmares last night about Mr. 94 Feet getting up in his grill all night. I don't think any guard in the NBA looks forward to playing against him.

I'm sure I'm not alone being on pins and needles wondering what our defense will look like when PatBev inevitably goes down. We have to hope the culture change trumps his on-court presence, but concerns are still valid.

Who would have thought we would have a top 10 D moving closer to 20 games? We might actually be good if the recent offensive bump trends.

thedoper wrote:Who would have thought we would have a top 10 D moving closer to 20 games? We might actually be good if the recent offensive bump trends.

Not me...many of us expected a Beverley Effect, but I don't think anyone thought we would go from bottom 10 to top 10 overnight.

Some necessary perspective though. In addition to playing a lot of home games against a lot of teams with losing records, the Wolves are one of the healthiest teams in the league during the first 17 games of this Bizarro Season. The Wolves rank in the top 5 teams in terms of fewest games lost to injury (certainly a 180 turn from previous years), while 6 of our 17 games have been played against teams that rank in the top 5 of most games lost to injury (and that doesn't include the 3 games against NO, the 2 games against Memphis, and the games against Denver and Golden State...teams not in the top 5 of worst injury luck, but still missing key players).

How this team performs if their injury luck and that of their opponent regresses to the mean will determine whether this is a 40-win season or a 30-win season.

Updated Stats after 30 games.
Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, Net Rating, Box-Score +/-

Ant - 109.4, 107.7, +1.7, +1.1
KAT - 111.2, 107.2, +4.0, +4.5
DLO - 108.8, 99.0, +9.9, +1.2
PBev - 113.0, 106.9, +6.0, +1.6
Vando - 112.3, 104.2, +8.1, +.3
Beasley - 104.7, 108.8.1, -4.1, -2.2
JadMac - 102.9, 104.0, - 1.1, -.5.5
Naz - 97.6, 109.5, -11.9, -.7
Prince - 97.7, 111.1, -3.7
Okogie - 98.0, 99.0, -4.1

How to think about Box Score Plus-Minus numbers:

10.0 is an all-time season (think peak Jordan or LeBron)
+8.0 is an MVP season (think peak Dirk or peak Shaq)
+6.0 is an all-NBA season
+4.0 is in all-star consideration
+2.0 is a good starter
+0.0 is a decent starter or solid 6th man
-2.0 is a bench player (this is also defined as "replacement level")
Below -2.0 are many end-of-bench players

If there was a stat that somehow measured the amount of time I watch a player who doesn't have the ball in his hands, Vando would lead the team for me. He's got such a nose for rebounds and loose balls, when a shot goes up or the ball gets poked away, my eyes are starting to instinctively find him on the court because it's so obvious he's most likely to go all out to get it. Love watching that guy play.

Updated Stats after 45 games.
Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, Net Rating, Box-Score +/-

Ant - 112.1, 107.4, +4.7, +1.8
KAT - 113.5, 109.3, +4.2, +5.1
DLO - 111.9, 103.9, +8.0, +1.9
PBev - 112.7, 108.3, +4.4, +3.1
Vando - 114.5, 106.9, +7.6, +.6
Beasley - 106.7, 109.4,1, -2.8, -1.7
JadMac - 105.1, 107.3, -2.2, -.4.3
Naz - 100.3, 107.4, -7.1, -.3
Prince - 103.9, 110.2, -2.9
Nowell - 106.6, 109.4, +2.7

Q-was-here wrote:Updated Stats after 45 games.
Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, Net Rating, Box-Score +/-

Ant - 112.1, 107.4, +4.7, +1.8
KAT - 113.5, 109.3, +4.2, +5.1
DLO - 111.9, 103.9, +8.0, +1.9
PBev - 112.7, 108.3, +4.4, +3.1
Vando - 114.5, 106.9, +7.6, +.6
Beasley - 106.7, 109.4,1, -2.8, -1.7
JadMac - 105.1, 107.3, -2.2, -.4.3
Naz - 100.3, 107.4, -7.1, -.3
Prince - 103.9, 110.2, -2.9
Nowell - 106.6, 109.4, +2.7

DLO is our highest rated defensive player? Must be a good system. I like DLO the player. I love DLO the teammate, but DLO the defensive stalwart? No.

Based on these numbers, we have an all-star in KAT; good starters in DLO, PBev, and Ant; a decent starter in Vando; and an excellent bench piece in Nowell.

By the numbers, nearly everyone else is pretty shaky.

I always liken our situation to Memphis. Like the Wolves, they only have three guys with a BPM above 2.0, only one of whom would be considered an all-star (Morant). But they have waaaaay fewer negatives up and down the rest of their roster: Tyus Jones, John Konchar, Xavier Tillman, De'Antony Melton, Kyle Anderson. They just have a vastly more effective bench.

I'll continue to maintain that I think the core might be in place here, so long as they continue to stay reasonably healthy and get along with each other. Gupta has got to upgrade the bench. We should have the assets and flexibility to get that done hopefully.

Our starting 5 has been really good. Like I said in the other post, we need more from the other guys. Nowell is probably the only guy really starting to step up, I'm happy with his progress. Need more from whoever is in the game beyond those starters. Bease, Naz, Jaden, whoever it may be that night playing.

Was it a couple games ago we had like 85 points from KAT, DLO and Ant but still lost. Part of it can be those three also getting open looks for the others too. So it's not just on them to score, which is fine, but make the others better too.