Sundog60 wrote:I'm wondering what discount Russell might take in order to *not* play out an expiring deal? I know about players wanting to "bet on themselves" and take on the risk of injury, etc, in the hopes of improving their market opportunities. But I don't think we know what Dlo's risk tolerance is.
I think the other reason he COULD theoretically want to take less than he could get is that he wants to stick around instead of end up somewhere else. I have no idea if that's something that will matter or not.
To me I think it's fair for Russell to say anything less than say 20 million is not even a reasonable offer. Beasley will make just a few million less than that next season and I think most of us would agree that Russell is more valuable than Beasley. I think Russell's market value is probably at least 20 million. Is there a chance he ends up not getting that much next offseason? Sure but that seems unlikely. Heck in 2017 the Wolves paid Teague 3 years 57 million. Some will argue that was an overpay but let's say he should have gotten more like 17million the cap will have gone up a significant amount by 2023 so what 17 million is then will be low 20's in 2023.
Ok so the real issue here is not just money but Russell and the Wolves commitment to each other. Are the Wolves willing to commit Russell as there PG for the next 4 seasons? Is Russell willing to reciprocate that commitment to the Wolves? Let's say the Wolves did want to commit to Russell if there was some sort of reasonable number they could agree to. What number is that? 22 or 23 or 25 million? Is Russell willing to take that? What if the Wolves in a 14 months find out they have the right guy on their roster already and they don't need Russell as their starting PG anymore? Is he a bench player? Do they trade him? There are scenarios where a Russell gives up money to stay and then gets traded somewhere else and doesn't get to make the extra money he maybe could have if he had gone into FA.
FWIW Jon K said on his last podcast that the Wolves did discuss some Russell trades before the draft. Nothing came of them and who knows what they were but it seems very possible he is moved. He also said they are wanting something back for him they aren't just dumping him and certainly not paying someone to get rid of him. Maybe the Wolves and Russell have an understanding that if they can made a deal and Russell moves to another place that could be good for both parties.
That is interesting Monster. I thought we were so far over the cap that even losing DLO's salary wouldn't bring us that far under it. I wasn't thinking about PatBev's money coming off the books either. Now that I look into it, the Beasley money is a team option that year too. So I guess we could clear a max slot and still have room to fill out the roster if somebody wanted to come and play with KAT and Ant. But how likely is that? It's tough to say. We don't have a great track record of attracting free agents.
SameOldNudityDrew wrote:That is interesting Monster. I thought we were so far over the cap that even losing DLO's salary wouldn't bring us that far under it. I wasn't thinking about PatBev's money coming off the books either. Now that I look into it, the Beasley money is a team option that year too. So I guess we could clear a max slot and still have room to fill out the roster if somebody wanted to come and play with KAT and Ant. But how likely is that? It's tough to say. We don't have a great track record of attracting free agents.
Well we haven't had a Anthony Edwards type guy (talent and personality) on the roster combined with cap space plus Tim Connelly a high level GM and a coach Intuink FAs may want to play for. If a guy like McDaniels takes another step forward this COULD be a pretty appealing destination. The Wolves might still need to overpay someone but if the Wolven equal their win total from last season they could still seem even more like a team on the rise.
I would do anything I could to go get Ayton. D'Lo, Naz, and next years protected pick or two. Offer Nowell 4 years/22 mil. Go after Patty Mills or Tyus for around 9 mil per over 3 years. Offer Javale McGee, Jalen Smith, or Isaiah Hartenstein 6 mil per over 3.
Mills or Tyus/Beverley/Jmac
Edwards/Beasley/Nowell
McDaniels/Prince/Moore
KAT/Vando
Ayton/Smith/Kessler
Not worth thinking about IMO, markets run high and low. Right now it seems the market has been gauged for DLO's value and nothing could be found that would be better than just keeping him. For DLO his value is that he could try and play his ass off and get a nice check unless something nasty health wise happened. Even if he has a down year, he's still worth 15-20ish million that most would be ok with.
So why would it make sense to for DLO to sign a mediocre offer when MN just sat him with the season on the line and has publicly shopped him. He's at market low, he ain't doing any favors after being benched, his best option is to go out and put up points and assists cause that's how he earns the most come next year.
TheFuture wrote:I would do anything I could to go get Ayton. D'Lo, Naz, and next years protected pick or two. Offer Nowell 4 years/22 mil. Go after Patty Mills or Tyus for around 9 mil per over 3 years. Offer Javale McGee, Jalen Smith, or Isaiah Hartenstein 6 mil per over 3.
Mills or Tyus/Beverley/Jmac
Edwards/Beasley/Nowell
McDaniels/Prince/Moore
KAT/Vando
Ayton/Smith/Kessler
I could like that.
There is a thing called a salary cap. I understand that you are saying though
TheFuture wrote:I would do anything I could to go get Ayton. D'Lo, Naz, and next years protected pick or two. Offer Nowell 4 years/22 mil. Go after Patty Mills or Tyus for around 9 mil per over 3 years. Offer Javale McGee, Jalen Smith, or Isaiah Hartenstein 6 mil per over 3.
Mills or Tyus/Beverley/Jmac
Edwards/Beasley/Nowell
McDaniels/Prince/Moore
KAT/Vando
Ayton/Smith/Kessler
I could like that.
There is a thing called a salary cap. I understand that you are saying though
I believe a sign and trade for ayton, exceptions on say Tyus and Smith, nowell extension after would all work.
TheFuture wrote:I would do anything I could to go get Ayton. D'Lo, Naz, and next years protected pick or two. Offer Nowell 4 years/22 mil. Go after Patty Mills or Tyus for around 9 mil per over 3 years. Offer Javale McGee, Jalen Smith, or Isaiah Hartenstein 6 mil per over 3.
Mills or Tyus/Beverley/Jmac
Edwards/Beasley/Nowell
McDaniels/Prince/Moore
KAT/Vando
Ayton/Smith/Kessler
I could like that.
There is a thing called a salary cap. I understand that you are saying though
I believe a sign and trade for ayton, exceptions on say Tyus and Smith, nowell extension after would all work.
Your suggested moves would be legal, but they would push Minnesota over the luxury tax threshold. That's something to consider from a financial standpoint.
Basketball-wise, I'm not sure that team is better than one that keeps the current roster and signs Isaiah Hartenstein.
TheFuture wrote:I would do anything I could to go get Ayton. D'Lo, Naz, and next years protected pick or two. Offer Nowell 4 years/22 mil. Go after Patty Mills or Tyus for around 9 mil per over 3 years. Offer Javale McGee, Jalen Smith, or Isaiah Hartenstein 6 mil per over 3.
Mills or Tyus/Beverley/Jmac
Edwards/Beasley/Nowell
McDaniels/Prince/Moore
KAT/Vando
Ayton/Smith/Kessler
I could like that.
There is a thing called a salary cap. I understand that you are saying though
I believe a sign and trade for ayton, exceptions on say Tyus and Smith, nowell extension after would all work.
Your suggested moves would be legal, but they would push Minnesota over the luxury tax threshold. That's something to consider from a financial standpoint.
Basketball-wise, I'm not sure that team is better than one that keeps the current roster and signs Isaiah Hartenstein.
This front office has obviously calibrated really carefully to ensure they can fill all their roster spots and use the full MLE without exceeding the luxury tax threshold. Therefore, I don't see the Wolves making any moves this summer that would push them over that line. I have two key take aways so far on the strategic framework the Wolves front office is working within:
1. The Wolves will not make any moves that put them over the luxury tax threshold this summer. They might be willing to do that in a year or two, but they've clearly determined that this franchise is not yet at a point where it makes sense to pay the luxury tax and face the resulting loss of financial flexibility. I agree with this approach.
2. The Wolves will not mortgage their future by trading away multiple 1st-round picks. Knowing that they declined to do so to get Murray, I don't see them doing so for any potential trade target this summer. Again, I agree with this approach, although it was really tempting to give up those assets for Murray - a 25 year old PG with two very team-friendly years left on his contract who just averaged 20 points, 8 rebounds, 9 assists and 2 steals per game last season.
Lip, I'm not so sure about your first point above. I think it depends on which part of the ownership group would bear the brunt of the lux tax. If Glen is absolved, I don't know that the lux tax is off the table. Glen and ALore are both billionaires, but that's where the similarities end. Glen is smart and strategic to be sure, but he also has a Midwestern cautiousness inherent in him that would never allow himself to pay such a punitive tax...even if it didn't have a material impact on his net worth. Lore and ARod are cut from an entirely different cloth. They are brash and willing to take on significant risk in order to meet their goals. Look at some of the things Lore has done in his life, and you see a guy who likes living on the edge and will do whatever it takes to come out on top. That's why so many of us were excited when they announced they were getting involved. If TC wants Ayton, Gobert, or heck even Simmons, and says that's the piece that can put us over the top, I don't know that the new ownership group will let a tax get in the way. Of course they would have to find a way to protect Glen for a cash outlay, but if they can do it, I don't think the lux tax will be a barrier. And thank God for that if it's true!
