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Re: Lamelo Out for The Season

Posted: Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:14 pm
by Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
Why most of us messed up on LaMelo is simple - we aren't the experts. In his case without a large body of work in a league we are more familiar with, like a 35 game NCAA year for example, we were largely left with scraps of data that one could then turn into a full picture only by incorporating the types of preconceived biases you admitted to having.

I suppose had he gone a more conventional path and played a full season in college like his brother Lonzo did, we may be would have been more aligned with the likes of Givony.

I have newfound respect for Givony and his more media-friendly sidekick Kaminsky. They put in the work on these prospects, starting with watching them play in tournaments as young teenagers.

By the way, their take on Edwards was pretty good too. They had him pegged as the best pure scorer in the draft. Is there any doubt about that at this point? Certainly they acknowledged his pitfalls as well, but just felt the upside was too tantalizing for him to slip out of the top couple picks, regardless of who was drafting.

Re: Lamelo Out for The Season

Posted: Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:40 pm
by AbeVigodaLive
Camden wrote:Sometimes the pre-draft assessment can be spot-on and the player just improves his game significantly or outperforms expectations. This is what I believe happened with LaMelo Ball. He was statistically one of the worst defenders in the entire NBL, especially in defending the pick-and-roll, which is the most executed action in the NBA. He had a broken outside shot (25.0 3P% on 80 attempts) and trouble consistently finishing at the rim, which is a recipe for disaster especially considering he was playing in a league with inferior length and athleticism to the NBA. His effort/motor was inconsistent on both ends of the floor and his maturity was rightfully questioned, especially after reports concerning his pre-draft interviews were leaked. Don't be confused by the results. There were very real red flags based on what he showed in his limited time in Australia and through the shortened pre-draft process.

What I didn't expect and certainly couldn't have predicted was Ball significantly retooling his shot mechanics -- specifically to be more of a set shot than a natural jumper. The early results have been staggering. Raise your hand if you expected Ball to shoot 37.5-percent from three on more than five attempts per game. Okay, now put your hand down because I don't believe you. Who could have expected Ball to become an elite finisher at the rim making more than 60-percent of his attempts within 0-3 feet? These were valid weaknesses in Ball's game that he has transformed into strengths in a short amount of time. And to his credit there haven't been any signs of him having effort or engagement concerns this season.

Add these improvements to his prior strengths of being an above average facilitator, good rebounder for position, and overall size for position and you have a really intriguing player. But make no mistake about it, there were legitimate reasons to be concerned leading up to this.



But it's also largely in part because none of us are draft experts. We simply don't have the access.

So we have to give more weight to a 12-game sample in an Australian league, where a guy shows drastic improvement. Or 3 college games. Or one season as a ball dominant player on a bad team.

It's all an inexact science. Otherwise, the Wolves would have figured it out decades ago.



[Edit: Damn it, Q. That's twice now! I gotta start reading through threads before responding...]

Re: Lamelo Out for The Season

Posted: Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:54 pm
by FNG
Q and Abe nailed it. I'm as guilty as anyone in thinking I have all the answers and that the experts are wrong, but we all should learn a lesson from this last draft. The experts kept saying Ball, and this board said anyone but Ball and turned it into a Wiseman vs. Edwards debate. Who knew that guys who evaluate basketball talent for a living might know more than a bunch of bobos on a message board?

Re: Lamelo Out for The Season

Posted: Mon Mar 22, 2021 1:12 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
There was no consensus in last year's draft amongst the media -- or experts as we're calling them -- for a reason. Each of the top prospects had their own strengths and weaknesses which left plenty of room for debate. Some favored LaMelo Ball. Some favored James Wiseman. Others favored Anthony Edwards. There wasn't even a consensus among NBA franchises as both Golden State and Charlotte reportedly had Wiseman at the top of their boards whereas Minnesota favored Edwards. This board had their own internal debate. This was not an Anthony Davis or John Wall draft where the top guy was head and shoulders above the rest.

Also, we've seen Mike Schmitz, Jonathan Givony, Chad Ford, Kevin O'Connor, etc. all be wrong more times than one. These are guys that have more access to video as well as the prospects themselves and they still get it wrong occasionally. Why? Because drafting and talent evaluation is difficult and rarely a sure thing. Not to mention there are various levels of progression for these young kids along the way that can't be predicted. All you can do is make your assessments based on what you know and what you've researched and analyzed.

Re: Lamelo Out for The Season

Posted: Mon Mar 22, 2021 1:39 pm
by thedoper
Is it a sure thing that Lamelo is a good NBA player? He had a nice stretch. I think the media is going to go on an all out blitz to make him ROY in spite of the fewer games. There is so little fanfare on this rookie class that I think Lamelo is going to get it. The media made the case in the past for Embid and Zion, I think that narrative will win out this year.

Re: Lamelo Out for The Season

Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2021 2:36 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
For perspective, if Ball's season truly is over, he will have played in 56.9% of Charlotte's games (41 of 72). The lowest percentage ever by a Rookie winner was 61% by New York center Patrick Ewing in 1986 (50 of 82).

So unless somehow Ball were able to mend, rehab and return for at least three games near the end of the Hornets' regular season, one of two things is going to happen: We're either going to have a new floor established for availability/durability in ROY consideration. Or some other newcomer is going to get the award.


Link: https://www.nba.com/news/kia-rookie-ladder-march-24-edition?amp=1

Re: Lamelo Out for The Season

Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 3:44 pm
by Monster
The ROY it means nothing it's just nice for the player to have or something fun to talk about. Seriously can you think of any player that you say 4 years later or whatever well damn that guys was a ROY...usually if ROY is brought up it's because that guy ended up not being anywhere near what expectations are for him.

Going back in history a bit remember the debate about whether Embiid or Brogdon should win the ROY? Turns out Brogdon is a pretty good player. Brogdon wasn't a high draft pick maybe if he was he would have played more minutes and had more opportunities to pile up stats which it seems like he may have deserved looking back at some of the guys that got minutes over him.

Re: Lamelo Out for The Season

Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 3:52 pm
by KG4Ever
FNG wrote:Q and Abe nailed it. I'm as guilty as anyone in thinking I have all the answers and that the experts are wrong, but we all should learn a lesson from this last draft. The experts kept saying Ball, and this board said anyone but Ball and turned it into a Wiseman vs. Edwards debate. Who knew that guys who evaluate basketball talent for a living might know more than a bunch of bobos on a message board?


FWIW, I had Ball ahead of Edwards. ;-)

Re: Lamelo Out for The Season

Posted: Sat Mar 27, 2021 12:57 am
by Porckchop
I still think Wiseman would've been the right pick. For the simple fact that he could've been penciled in as our center where he could've focused on rebounding , blocks and put backs. More importantly it would have put Towns further out to the perimeter where his full offensive arsenal could be put on display . It also would've filled the teams current biggest weakness . The PF position.

Re: Lamelo Out for The Season

Posted: Sat Mar 27, 2021 1:04 am
by kekgeek
PorkChop wrote:I still think Wiseman would've been the right pick. For the simple fact that he could've been penciled in as our center where he could've focused on rebounding , blocks and put backs. More importantly it would have put Towns further out to the perimeter where his full offensive arsenal could be put on display . It also would've filled the teams current biggest weakness . The PF position.


Wiseman has been pathetic on the defensive end this year. There is a reason why he has limited minutes on a team with below average bigs