Morey’s Ever-Shrinking Leverage

[Lipoli390]

https://theathletic.com/2854156/2021/09/28/ben-simmons-believes-playing-with-joel-embiid-has-run-its-course-and-sixers-media-day-messages-fall-flat-with-him/

[Monster]

Here's how much money Ben Simmons will lose if he doesn't rejoin the 76ers (via @Bobby Marks)
#NBATwitter pic.twitter.com/1uSvJlOEyF - 3:08 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAjjo7LXIAE5Na8.jpg

If Simmons sits out the entire season, all 82 games plus training camp, he can be fined a total of just under $23 million. That would mean he'd net about $10 million in salary for the season without playing a single game. As of the end of the day tomorrow, Simmons will have already been paid half of his annual salary - i.e., slightly over $16 million. I suspect he has some other endorsement money coming this season as well. Moreover, the Sixers would have to officially suspend Simmons before they can fine him a penny. If you think Ben's trade value is low now, imagine what it would be after a suspension.

But honestly, the question isn't whether Simmons will return and play any games for the Sixers this season. Clearly he won't. He's not going to completely jettison his pride and self-respect for another $10M that he probably doesn't need. More importantly, he knows the Sixers can't afford to play a significant number of games, much less the entire season, without Simmons or without at least some reasonable value in return that can help the team on the court or facilitate another deal during the season. The only questions are how many days (not weeks) into the season Morey will wait before trading Simmons and who/what the Sixers will ultimately get in return.

Also worth keeping in mind that all money Simmons doesn't make goes straight to NBA charities.

FWIW I believe it was Kendrick Perkins that reported that Josh Harris the managing partner of the Sixers (and NJ Devils) said he is ready to hold out for a good deal for Simmons or...not take a bad one.

I Get Simmons is a really good player (especially defensively) but honestly I think a couple offers that were made (reportedly) a few weeks ago were quite reasonable and maybe you tell one of those teams throw in another asset like another first round pick and get the deal done. Imagine Philly having a pretty good guard, plus possibly another starting level player plus at least another first round pick which you could add to bring in an upgrade in talent during the season. The Bucks won a championship without another star player other than Giannis. Middleton is a very good 2-way player but probably not a "star" but Holiday was also a huge get for the Bucks. The Sixers might not be able to bring in a Jrue Holiday but maybe they could get another piece like when the Bucks added Tucker last season.

[Lipoli390]

Here's how much money Ben Simmons will lose if he doesn't rejoin the 76ers (via @Bobby Marks)
#NBATwitter pic.twitter.com/1uSvJlOEyF - 3:08 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAjjo7LXIAE5Na8.jpg

If Simmons sits out the entire season, all 82 games plus training camp, he can be fined a total of just under $23 million. That would mean he'd net about $10 million in salary for the season without playing a single game. As of the end of the day tomorrow, Simmons will have already been paid half of his annual salary - i.e., slightly over $16 million. I suspect he has some other endorsement money coming this season as well. Moreover, the Sixers would have to officially suspend Simmons before they can fine him a penny. If you think Ben's trade value is low now, imagine what it would be after a suspension.

But honestly, the question isn't whether Simmons will return and play any games for the Sixers this season. Clearly he won't. He's not going to completely jettison his pride and self-respect for another $10M that he probably doesn't need. More importantly, he knows the Sixers can't afford to play a significant number of games, much less the entire season, without Simmons or without at least some reasonable value in return that can help the team on the court or facilitate another deal during the season. The only questions are how many days (not weeks) into the season Morey will wait before trading Simmons and who/what the Sixers will ultimately get in return.

Also worth keeping in mind that all money Simmons doesn't make goes straight to NBA charities.

FWIW I believe it was Kendrick Perkins that reported that Josh Harris the managing partner of the Sixers (and NJ Devils) said he is ready to hold out for a good deal for Simmons or...not take a bad one.

I Get Simmons is a really good player (especially defensively) but honestly I think a couple offers that were made (reportedly) a few weeks ago were quite reasonable and maybe you tell one of those teams throw in another asset like another first round pick and get the deal done. Imagine Philly having a pretty good guard, plus possibly another starting level player plus at least another first round pick which you could add to bring in an upgrade in talent during the season. The Bucks won a championship without another star player other than Giannis. Middleton is a very good 2-way player but probably not a "star" but Holiday was also a huge get for the Bucks. The Sixers might not be able to bring in a Jrue Holiday but maybe they could get another piece like when the Bucks added Tucker last season.

I would expect anyone in Sixers' ownership or management to say what Josh Harris reportedly said. And Perkins would be a good conduit for a statement like that. Of course, the statement itself is generic and meaningless. It begs the question: what is a "good deal" versus a "bad one." What looked like a bad deal 6 weeks ago would probably look like a good deal in today's market. The quality of a deal is invariably tied to the market. So as you were implying, the statement by Josh Harris is worth nothing.

Beyond Ben's market value, what is his intrinsic value (if there is such a thing)? I agree with you completely that the deals reportedly offered by other teams 4+ weeks ago were reasonable by any measure. If it's true that Toronto offered VanVleet, Anunoby and a protected 1st-round pick, Morey really blew it by turning that one down.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I wish I could say I'm surprised by anything that's unfolded over the past couple months, but the signs were there showing how this would end up. The longer Daryl Morey waited, the messier this situation was going to get, and the more risk would be involved in determining the return Philadelphia eventually gets back for Ben Simmons. Like I said in another thread, I don't even think Portland moves C.J. McCollum for Simmons at this point. There are various players who might have been available for trade who aren't anymore and that's a product of the Sixers front office overplaying their hand.

[Lipoli390]

I wish I could say I'm surprised by anything that's unfolded over the past couple months, but the signs were there showing how this would end up. The longer Daryl Morey waited, the messier this situation was going to get, and the more risk would be involved in determining the return Philadelphia eventually gets back for Ben Simmons. Like I said in another thread, I don't even think Portland moves C.J. McCollum for Simmons at this point. There are various players who might have been available for trade who aren't anymore and that's a product of the Sixers front office overplaying their hand.

Spot on, Cam. Morey definitely overplayed his hand. But that's not surprising for Morey. In addition to overplaying his hand with Simmons, his arrogance over the years has alienated his colleagues around the League. Therefore, Morey has no good will he can draw on to help him salvage the situation. To the contrary, he has generated lot of ill will around the League. Apparently, that ill will was the reason the Harden deal with Philly fell through last year.

I'd like to see the Wolves get Simmons if the price isn't too steep. But regardless of where Simmons ends up, I'm enjoying the spectacle of Morey falling on his face.

[Monster]

I wish I could say I'm surprised by anything that's unfolded over the past couple months, but the signs were there showing how this would end up. The longer Daryl Morey waited, the messier this situation was going to get, and the more risk would be involved in determining the return Philadelphia eventually gets back for Ben Simmons. Like I said in another thread, I don't even think Portland moves C.J. McCollum for Simmons at this point. There are various players who might have been available for trade who aren't anymore and that's a product of the Sixers front office overplaying their hand.

Spot on, Cam. Morey definitely overplayed his hand. But that's not surprising for Morey. In addition to overplaying his hand with Simmons, his arrogance over the years has alienated his colleagues around the League. Therefore, Morey has no good will he can draw on to help him salvage the situation. To the contrary, he has generated lot of ill will around the League. Apparently, that ill will was the reason the Harden deal with Philly fell through last year.

I'd like to see the Wolves get Simmons if the price isn't too steep. But regardless of where Simmons ends up, I'm enjoying the spectacle of Morey falling on his face.

I'll defend Morey a bit here. Do we actually know why he left Houston? Without more info I don't know if I would lay the blame on Morey for the Simmons trade not going through. Maybe we are seeing why Houston decided to me on from him. Or maybe Morey and owner didn't see eye to eye on the direction of the team. Morey's departure was announced in the middle of October. A few weeks later Harden demanded a trade which was finally granted in January and that was a bit of a shit show all around. Trading for Dipo was a head scratcher. Not everything has gone wrong in Houston the last few months but there are some things to wonder about. I'm not saying Morey had nothing to do with it but I'm not sure what all went on there.

Are there red flags in terms of Morey and how he is perceived around the league? Yep. I also think that if you are pulling the "I'm not trading Ben Simmons for anything less than basically a future HOF player and other assets" type of BS then it rubs people the wrong way as we saw that play out with Thibs also. The league isn't stupid (overall) and they likely had lots of intel about the situation...Rich Paul likely made sure people knew what was going on. Morey acted like it was different or everyone else was beneath him. I can tell you from reading this board nobody likes when that happens whether it's on purpose or not.

Simmons is still a nice player and someone is still going to give up something reasonably valuable at some point but Morey would have been better off acting more quickly. I don't blame him for waiting longer than maybe it seemed reasonable to see if there was a shot at Beal and Dame. At some point it seemed that chance was not happening and it was time to pivot. His pivot was digging in harder and it's not going to end all that well. I do think his reputation is now going to be tarnished because of how he played this situation and IMO it should be.

Also I agree with Cam that we could see this type of thing coming. It's not exactly a huge surprise.

[thedoper]

I think Morey rightly knows the asset doesnt change. As long as Simmons is healthy someone will eventually pony up for him. Im sure other GMs find him annoying, but I find car salesmen annoying too, unfortunately they usually stand between me and the asset I want. Simmons has yet to go full nuclear (a la Butler) so for now Morey is fine to hold out for a better deal. I think he will end up with something decent.

[Lipoli390]

I wish I could say I'm surprised by anything that's unfolded over the past couple months, but the signs were there showing how this would end up. The longer Daryl Morey waited, the messier this situation was going to get, and the more risk would be involved in determining the return Philadelphia eventually gets back for Ben Simmons. Like I said in another thread, I don't even think Portland moves C.J. McCollum for Simmons at this point. There are various players who might have been available for trade who aren't anymore and that's a product of the Sixers front office overplaying their hand.

Spot on, Cam. Morey definitely overplayed his hand. But that's not surprising for Morey. In addition to overplaying his hand with Simmons, his arrogance over the years has alienated his colleagues around the League. Therefore, Morey has no good will he can draw on to help him salvage the situation. To the contrary, he has generated lot of ill will around the League. Apparently, that ill will was the reason the Harden deal with Philly fell through last year.

I'd like to see the Wolves get Simmons if the price isn't too steep. But regardless of where Simmons ends up, I'm enjoying the spectacle of Morey falling on his face.

I'll defend Morey a bit here. Do we actually know why he left Houston? Without more info I don't know if I would lay the blame on Morey for the Simmons trade not going through. Maybe we are seeing why Houston decided to me on from him. Or maybe Morey and owner didn't see eye to eye on the direction of the team. Morey's departure was announced in the middle of October. A few weeks later Harden demanded a trade which was finally granted in January and that was a bit of a shit show all around. Trading for Dipo was a head scratcher. Not everything has gone wrong in Houston the last few months but there are some things to wonder about. I'm not saying Morey had nothing to do with it but I'm not sure what all went on there.

Are there red flags in terms of Morey and how he is perceived around the league? Yep. I also think that if you are pulling the "I'm not trading Ben Simmons for anything less than basically a future HOF player and other assets" type of BS then it rubs people the wrong way as we saw that play out with Thibs also. The league isn't stupid (overall) and they likely had lots of intel about the situation...Rich Paul likely made sure people knew what was going on. Morey acted like it was different or everyone else was beneath him. I can tell you from reading this board nobody likes when that happens whether it's on purpose or not.

Simmons is still a nice player and someone is still going to give up something reasonably valuable at some point but Morey would have been better off acting more quickly. I don't blame him for waiting longer than maybe it seemed reasonable to see if there was a shot at Beal and Dame. At some point it seemed that chance was not happening and it was time to pivot. His pivot was digging in harder and it's not going to end all that well. I do think his reputation is now going to be tarnished because of how he played this situation and IMO it should be.

Also I agree with Cam that we could see this type of thing coming. It's not exactly a huge surprise.

Do we KNOW that the Harden deal fell through because of Morey? I can't say we know anything. We just rely on reports we read. In this case it was reported widely that it was disdain for Morey that caused the deal to collapse. I don't recall the sources, but I generally recall concluding that the sources were ones most would view as credible. But it's not just the Harden deal. There have been a number of reports over time about Morey's arrogance and how he's alienated colleagues around the League. I can add that watching video of him talking and reading some of the things he's said over the years has left me with the impression that his an arrogant a-hole. In any event, he's certainly screwed up here by thinking he could command a price for Simmons that grossly exceeded what anyone was willing to pay - to the point where he caused other team executives to hang up on him in disgust.

I actually like that Morey has screwed up. But if I were a Sixers fan or owner, I would definitely blame him for what's happened. Honestly, if you, Cam and I could see it coming, then Morey should have been expected to see this coming as well. So he absolutely should have moderated his initial expectations quickly and negotiated a realistic deal for a 59% free-throw shooting playmaking guard who wanted out. He apparently thought he could get Beal or Lillard, but it became clear fairly quickly that wasn't going to happen. I think Morey is too arrogant to believe that others won't bend to his will or that things won't eventually break his way. That's his issue. I've negotiated countless deals. The best negotiators always look at the situation through the eyes of those they're negotiating with are able to assess things realistically. Morey made his career taking advantage of the difficult predicaments of other organizations that needed to do a deal to rebuild, clear salary or something similar. We're seeing that Morey's not so smart after all now that the shoe's on the other foot.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I think Morey rightly knows the asset doesnt change. As long as Simmons is healthy someone will eventually pony up for him. Im sure other GMs find him annoying, but I find car salesmen annoying too, unfortunately they usually stand between me and the asset I want. Simmons has yet to go full nuclear (a la Butler) so for now Morey is fine to hold out for a better deal. I think he will end up with something decent.

Decent, yes, but Bradley Beal or Dame Lillard!? I don't think so. I have to believe there are "decent" deals available.

Now may be the gamble Morey takes is thinking the Sixers will be good enough that they can withstand sitting on Ben with no other help-now players in return. In the meantime, there will be some percentage of teams who go south quickly in the first couple months of the season. Those are perhaps the teams he'd hold out for, assuming they have assets he covets.

My hope is that the Sixers get off to a shaky start without Simmons, in which case the fans will turn on Morey and Co. in a hurry and demand they get some help rather than sitting on an idle asset.

[KiwiMatt]

If I was Gupta my offer would be DLO, our 2023 1st and 2nd (that they owe us). I would also ask for Paul Reed in return and add their choice of Okogie or Layman to match salaries. I would also be comfortable adding a 1st round pick swap.

If they ask for McDaniels or another 1st then walk away.

Beverley / McLaughlin
Edwards / Beasley / Nowell
McDaniels / Reed / Okogie
Simmons / Vanderbilt
Towns / Reid