Point Guard Rankings for 2022-23

[Sundog]

I don't know... I love Dlo, but I think there's a general board consensus that his value doesn't match his current max salary. If the front office tried to move him but couldn't, that'd most likely be the reason. Not that Dlo doesn't have value, just that his value doesn't match his contract. But now, I think we generally see that Dlo fits this team much better after the Gobert trade. Do the Wolves want to run the risk of him having a career year, then walking a la Brunson after the season? Before the Wolves went over the salary cap, we had expectations of using that Dlo cap space to bring a semi-max player to Minnesota. But now if Dlo walks next week, the Wolves get nothing in return. That's a bad outcome.

[60WinTim]

We are overthinking how the outcomes of the draft, trades and free agency are made by the people in charge. We see the end-result and assume that was their plan all along. Not so!

All of this is fluid stuff. Teams develop plans on how to improve their roster, but have to be flexible and react to the many different situations that present themselves. I have no doubt that moving on from Dlo was one of the possibilities, as was adding a defensive big to compliment KAT. If the Gobert trade did not materialize, it is certainly possible that TC would have flexed, and made a play for Dejounte Murray and a cheaper defensive big, and perhaps spent an asset or two moving Dlo. But the Gobert trade did present itself, and they decided that would make the biggest impact for winning. An effect of the Gobert trade is they ran out of other assets to do something different than Dlo, but that was also offset with Dlo being a much better fit with Gobert than he was with any other Wolves big man last year (at least on paper).

It will be fun to watch it all play out. Dlo actually had a subpar year in many respects. Hopefully he has a bounce back season like he did the last time he was playing in a contract year... ;-)

[D-Mac [enjin:19736340]]

I speculated before the offseason that he would be tough to move due to his low value around the league. Gotta be fair Cam. I went so far as to say Rosas would continue to be the head idiot until someone gave up something of real value for Russell. Well, we're still waiting for that and I'm not holding my breath.

Ahh, right. The "head idiot" nonsense. Rather than simply accept that the Timberwolves actually valued D'Angelo Russell for what he contributed last season -- and what they believe he'll produce moving forward with a roster that better suits him -- we're instead choosing to speculate that it was a "high priority" to move him and that his value was so low that Minnesota was unable to do so. Good call.

And if Tim Connelly extends or re-signs Russell, then what? What will the spin be?

If Tc extends him for 20/year or higher then he is the new idiot. He already made the gobert trade so he may be well on his way :)

[Sundog]

Another perspective:

NBA Point Guards Ranked by ESPN Real Plus-Minus - 2021-2022
1 Stephen Curry
2 Trae Young
3 Chris Paul
4 Luka Doncic
5 Mike Conley
6 Darius Garland
7 D'Angelo Russell
8 Dejounte Murray
9 Monte Morris
10 LaMelo Ball
11 Kyle Lowry
12 Reggie Jackson
13 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
14 Tyrese Maxey
15 Ja Morant
16 Marcus Smart
17 Tyrese Haliburton
18 Russell Westbrook
19 Patrick Beverley
20 Kyrie Irving
21 Jrue Holiday
22 Devonte' Graham
23 Derrick White
24 Spencer Dinwiddie
25 Damian Lillard
26 Malcolm Brogdon
27 Jalen Brunson
28 Cade Cunningham
29 Cole Anthony
30 Tyus Jones
31 De'Aaron Fox
32 Gabe Vincent
33 Patty Mills
34 Lonzo Ball
35 Jose Alvarado
36 Kemba Walker
37 Ricky Rubio
38 Bones Hyland
39 Jordan Clarkson
40 Tyler Herro

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Most here are well aware that I'm personally not a fan of plus-minus stats in vacuum as I think they're usually a better indicator of team/lineup performance than individual contributions, and they typically don't account for various factors in the game (teammates on the floor, opposing players, game situation, etc.), but there are a number of posters here that absolutely hail the plus-minus gods.

Seeing D'Angelo Russell rank favorably in those metrics puts some of them in a confusing position. Do they continue to knock Russell and ignore one of their preferred tools for assessing players? Or do they partially fold their hand and admit that plus-minus is a flawed way to analyze individual players, especially those that have played on losing teams? Or do they begrudgingly admit that Russell played a huge part in Minnesota's success last season and appropriately value him? Fun stuff! We'll likely get none of the above.

[Coolbreeze44]

Most here are well aware that I'm personally not a fan of plus-minus stats in vacuum as I think they're usually a better indicator of team/lineup performance than individual contributions, and they typically don't account for various factors in the game (teammates on the floor, opposing players, game situation, etc.), but there are a number of posters here that absolutely hail the plus-minus gods.

Seeing D'Angelo Russell rank favorably in those metrics puts some of them in a confusing position. Do they continue to knock Russell and ignore one of their preferred tools for assessing players? Or do they partially fold their hand and admit that plus-minus is a flawed way to analyze individual players, especially those that have played on losing teams? Or do they begrudgingly admit that Russell played a huge part in Minnesota's success last season and appropriately value him? Fun stuff! We'll likely get none of the above.

I'm not a big fan of DLO, nor am I particularly fond of advanced statistics. I mean look at the stupid example above that has DLO ranked considerably higher than Ja Morant. If we had JA instead of DLO you could plan the parade right now. As most of you already know, you can always find a stat that will support virtually any argument you want to make. It's not very hard to do. I wish DLO discussion could be cut by about 90%. But we know that's not going to happen.

[Sundog]

In the 2020-2021, Dlo was ranked 24th among point guards in real plus minus. His offensive rating was about the same as last year, but his defensive rating was much, much better last season, leading to the jump from 24th to 7th.

[kekgeek]

I speculated before the offseason that he would be tough to move due to his low value around the league. Gotta be fair Cam. I went so far as to say Rosas would continue to be the head idiot until someone gave up something of real value for Russell. Well, we're still waiting for that and I'm not holding my breath.

Ahh, right. The "head idiot" nonsense. Rather than simply accept that the Timberwolves actually valued D'Angelo Russell for what he contributed last season -- and what they believe he'll produce moving forward with a roster that better suits him -- we're instead choosing to speculate that it was a "high priority" to move him and that his value was so low that Minnesota was unable to do so. Good call.

And if Tim Connelly extends or re-signs Russell, then what? What will the spin be?

If Tc extends him for 20/year or higher then he is the new idiot. He already made the gobert trade so he may be well on his way :)

Every single player on that list lip posted who isn't on a rookie deal is making more than 20 million a year. I will be shocked if he doesn't get at least 20 million a year and I'm expecting more. It's what the market is at the moment for a starting NBA PG

[Lipoli390]

Count me among those who are not fond of advanced stats generally and the plus/minus stat in particular. We all watch a lot of NBA basketball and we've all seen a lot of DLO and the Wolves. Most of us also spend a lot of time looking at player stats. So we all have a good sense of how the Wolves play and what they need as well as how well DLO fits compared to how alternatives might fit. The way I approach the DLO question is to draw on all those things to answer a simple question. Who would I rather have on this team as our PG between DLO and the other possibilities?

Looking at Sundog's list, here are the players I'd swap DLO for straight up in a theoretically world where that was possible:

1. Steph Curry
2. Luka
3. Trae Young
4. Darius Garland
5. DeJounte Murray
6. LaMello Ball
7. SGA
8. Tyrese Maxey
9. Ja Morant
10. Marcus Smart
11. Tyrese Haliburton
12. Jrue Holiday
13. Damian Lillard
14. Jalen Brunson
15. Malcolm Brogdon
16. Cade Cunningham
17. De'Aaron Fox
18. Lonzo Ball

I left Chris Paul off because of his age even though he was still really good last season. Cunningham and Haliburton get the edge with me because of upside. I wouldn't want Kyrie Irving anywhere near the Wolves roster even though he's a tremendous talent.

In any event, as I see it DLO lands towards the middle, but in the top half, of the PGs on Sundog's list. Then you have to factor in who on that list the Wolves could have conceivably obtained in a trade. I supposed most of them were theoretically obtainable if the Wolves were willing to give up what they surrendered to get Gobert. :) In truth, very few of those on the list were realistically obtainable this summer without giving up Kessler and four unprotected 1st-round picks and even then I doubt Cunningham was gettable even for that haul.

However, we do know what the likely price would have been for a couple of the players listed.

For example, we know that DeJounte Murray cost the Hawks three 1st-round picks - the first one (2023) top 16 protected and the other two unprotected. So there should be no doubt that the Wolves could have traded DLO and three 1st-round picks, although the Wolves probably would have had to offer the 2023 pick with top 12 protection or something like that to outbid the Hawks. And for salary purposes the Wolves probably would have had to take back Doug McDermott to match salaries. Who among us would have made that deal to replace DLO with Murray? I'll confess I would have made that deal as an alternative to giving up the much bigger haul to get Gobert. I think Murray's going to be a star after nearly averaging a triple-double last season. A Murray-Edwards backcourt with McDaniels at the wing and Beverley off the bench would have formed a dynamic backcourt and elite defensive perimeter wall.

We also know now what the market price was for Brogdon. The Knicks gave up two valuable assets to get him: (1) a nice but not great young prospect in Nesmith; and (2) a top 12-protected 2023 first-round pick. Therefore, the Wolves could have probably swapped DLO for Brogdon if the Wolves had been willing to include Bolmaro and their 2023 1st round pick with lottery or maybe top 12 protection. Maybe the Wolves would have had to take TJ McConnell back for salary match purposes. Who among us would have done this deal? Brogdon's salary is more team friendly than DLO's and he's locked up for a few years, which would provide some additional stability. However, I still would not have made this deal since I see don't see Brogdon as much of an upgrade over DLO and I wouldn't be willing to give up draft capital to get him. I'd like to know whether the Wolves looked into swapping DLO for Lonzo Ball, who I think would be a perfect fit here. But we have no way of knowing whether the Bulls we're open to such a swap or what it would have taken to make it happen.

So it really gets back to the question Cam posed when the DLO trade question came up in another thread, i.e., not only who we'd prefer over DLO but who was realistically obtainable? When we consider that question, we shouldn't be surprised that DLO's still here.

I'm disappointed that we didn't end up with DeJounte Murray or Lonzo Ball, but it's clear the Wolves weren't willing to pay the price for Murray given their focus on Gobert and we'll never know what if anything would have landed Ball. What we do know is that the Wolves won 46 games with DLO as their starting PG. I think it's a stretch to assume the Wolves achieved that success in spite of DLO given the central role he played on the team. It's also clear the Wolves would not have won the play-in game without DLO. So it's hard for me to be unhappy that he remains our starting PG. I still have concerns about him. He hasn't been particularly durable over the years. He's tended to stifle ball movement and unnecessarily jack up highly contested shots. He's not a good defender and although he improved last season I wonder whether that improvement will be sustainable, especially without Beverley.

In any event, DLO will be our starting PG again next season. He's talented and smart. He proved to be a really good teammate, which was apparent to those of us watching him in person on the court and the bench. He also seems genuinely excited about this team and his opportunity to be part of it. So while wary of what we might see from him, I'm actually optimistic and excited about what he can do to help this team if he buys into his role as a facilitator who gives 100% defensively every minute of every game.

[Q-is-here]

In the 2020-2021, Dlo was ranked 24th among point guards in real plus minus. His offensive rating was about the same as last year, but his defensive rating was much, much better last season, leading to the jump from 24th to 7th.

Yeah, RPM can get noisy and all these defensive metrics seem to give guys an uplift when their overall team plays good defense. We know that last season he was helped by playing in the high wall scheme with a couple of attack dogs like Bev and Vando flanking him. And now this year he has Gobert.

I'm trying to think of past Title-winning starting point guards that are similar to DLO and it's really hard. Tony Parker comes the closest. He was a shaky defender and solid scorer, but did so at a fairly mediocre efficiency level. I know he had a couple seasons where he was really, really good, but I think he was similar to DLO in 2014 when the Spurs won the title.

Personally, I'd like to see DLO turn into "old Chris Paul", meaning he reduces his usage level but still has a green light in his sweet spots and otherwise sets guys up for easy hoops or spots up while Ant, KAT or Nowell go to work.