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monsterpile wrote:lipoli390 wrote:Saw something on twitter this morning about the Bucks possibly making Vanderbilt an offer. There was some panic among the faithful that Rosas might not match an offer from the Bucks. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the Bucks have already spend most of their taxpayer MLE on George Hill. So I don't think they could even offer as much as his $2.5M qualifying offer.
I wouldn't be surprised if a team makes Vanderbilt and offer, but it's not going to be the Bucks. I can't foresee any team offering more than $5M per year and that's an amount I'd want Rosas to match. Ultimately, I see Vanderbilt re-signing form somewhere around $3-4M per year - perhaps a 2-year deal with a player option on the 3rd.
I don't think Rosas is holding off on re-signing Vanderbilt because he wants to test his market value. Instead, I suspect that Rosas is holding off to preserve salary flexibility for a potential trade. At this point, I think that's silly. I'd just re-sign Vanderbilt and move on. A significant deal is highly unlikely and this team badly needs defensive bigs, which means Vanderbilt should be considered an essential keeper no matter what kind of deals might emerge in the next couple months. What Rosas should do to preserve roster and salary flexibility is hold off on signing Bolmaro. Ideally, I'd like to see Bolmaro spend another year playing in Europe. Rosas can and should also hold off on inking a deal with JMac for a while longer. But he should just get on with re-signing Vanderbilt. Rosas is a checkers player who seems to believe he's playing chess.
I believe both Dane Moore and Wolfson reported that the Wolves offered 3 million and Vanderbilt is wanting 6 million. Jon K didn't report numbers but basixay what he said backed up that reporting. If that's all true don't think Rosas is playing some sort of 3 D checkers. :) Note that multiple times Rosas has said that their own FAs are a priority. There are actually a few signs to indicate that is the case including being steadfast in that making additions are likely coming through trade. Without the Rubio deal Wolves fans that want Vanderbilt to come back would be worried as any kind of deal would put them in danger of the Tax.
3D checkers. Good one, Monster. I like that. :) Maybe Vanderbilt's agent is out there trying to solicit an offer for $6M per year. God bless him if that's true. He's not going to get that sort of offer, period, exclamation point. I suppose the Khem Birch contract gives him some hope, but it's false hope. The birch contract is an outlier. The actual market for bigs of Vanderbilt's proven caliber is defined by a long list of free-agent bigs signed in the past week:
Robin Lopez: 1 year, $5M per year
Bobby Portis: 2. yrs, $4.45M per year
Gorgui Dieng: 1 year, $4.0M per year
Alex Len: 2 years, 3.8M per year
Mike Muscala: 2 years. $3.5M per year
Trey Lyles: 2 years, $2.5M per year
Markeiff Morris: 1 year, $2.6M per year
Dwight Howard: 1 year, $2.6M per year
Enes Kanter: 1 year, $2.6M per year
Taj Gibson: 1 year $2.6M per year
Blake Griffin: 1 year $2.6M per year
Hassan Whiteside: 1 year, $2.4M per year
Cody Zeller: 1 Year, $2.4M per year
Bjelica: 1 year, $2.1M per year
Frank Kaminsky: 1 year, $2.1M per year
Tony Bradley: 2. years, $1.9M per year
Semi Ojeleye: 1 year, $1.8M per year
Jarrell Brantley: 1 year, $1.7M per year
That's a broad mix of young and old players, some signing with contenders and some signing with bad teams. The common thread is that they are all solid but not upper tier bigs and the vast majority got short-term deals with annual salaries primarily in the $1.7 to 2.5M range. Four of the 18 received annual salaries in the $3.5 to 4.5M range. One of them received a one year deal for $5M.
The Birch contract was from his current team. I can't explain it, but it doesn't provide any sort of market price for Vanderbilt. And note that teams have less salary flexibility now than they did when all these other bigs were signed.
So the bottom line is that Vanderbilt can't reasonably expect much more than his $2.5M qualifying offer. He can probably get a little more from the Wolves and, if he wants stability, he can probably get 2 or three years with a player option to reward him if he has a breakthrough season. But he's not getting any offers for $6 per year. And I don't see him getting any offers significantly higher than his $2.5M qualifying offer.
If his agent wants to wait, then so be it. Otherwise, Rosas should keep his $3.0M per year offer on the table. Make it a 2-year deal with a player option on a third year. Rosas might consider raising it to $3.5M per year.