Where Will the Elite Free Agents End Up

[KG4Ever]

I've seen a lot of talk on this board about how we might be able to get Russell.

Anybody else wary of paying that guy something near a max salary? I need to watch him play more, but I'm worried people feel like we need to try to get him just because of the rumors are out there that we could. Just because some people say some popular girl might date you doesn't mean it's a good idea to get engaged. I fear we'd regret that contract.

All-Stars get paid, especially 23-year old ones. Not worried about paying the players with proven production. It's when you pay guys based on a pinky promise that they'll get better... That's when you get into trouble.

Even replacement all-stars like DLO who suck at defense, score inefficiently and has had only one season where he was an above average player? Not all all-stars get paid big money. What about all-stars like Jameer Nelson, Devin Harris and Mo Williams? Playing in an all-star game doesn't mean you deserve a max deal: Think of Chris Kaman, David Lee, Andrew Bynum, Mehmet Okur, Josh Howard and Brad Miller. KG, KAT and Love deserved max deals, but what about Wolve all-stars like Googs, Wally, Laettner and Luol Deng? D. Rose is a multi-time all star and MVP and he's getting paid the minimum. I'm happy with letting another team overpay for an "all-star" like DLO.

Look at the examples you've provided. Think about the era in which they played in -- mid-range focus, post play, traditionalism. Now think about the era of the NBA that the league is currently in -- pace and space, ball-handling, perimeter shooting. The two eras are not the same. The structure of the league is not the same. Frankly, the overall talent in today's NBA is much better than it was in the early to mid 2000's -- when all of your player examples played. Now, how many of the players you listed were still on their rookie contract when they were named to the All-Star team? Any of them?

Jameer Nelson (26) - No
Devin Harris (25) - No
Mo Williams (26) - No
Chris Kaman (27) - No
David Lee (26) - No
Andrew Bynum (24) - No
Mehmet Okur (27) - No
Josh Howard (26) - Yes
Brad Miller (26) - No

Max contracts for 23-year old All-Stars aren't overpays. That's market value. That's usually a good investment.

B1: I've mentioned this before, but Russell is not an inefficient scorer. He's middle of the pack in scoring efficiency with the likes of Luka Doncic, Demar DeRozan, Trae Young, Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell, and Josh Richardson. It's fair to speculate that he might improve upon his efficiency when playing with more talented players, especially someone like Karl-Anthony Towns.

B2: Using Derrick Rose as an example in this context doesn't help the credibility of your argument. It just shows how far you're having to reach for names that fit your narrative. Rose literally has an inclusion in the CBA because of how good he was and consequently he was paid appropriately.

My point, is I don't give two rats about DLO being in the all star game. He wasn't voted in by fans, players or media, but put in by Adam Silver's office. There were multiple injuries and Silver's office put him in there. I thought Eric Bledsoe was more deserving. But whether or not he deserved it isn't the point. He is just not worth paying the max and losing assets to clear space for. DLO was horrible in the playoffs and he wasn't all that impressive in the regular season, despite being improved over his first three unremarkable years. Not really a fan of his off the court behavior either.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I've seen a lot of talk on this board about how we might be able to get Russell.

Anybody else wary of paying that guy something near a max salary? I need to watch him play more, but I'm worried people feel like we need to try to get him just because of the rumors are out there that we could. Just because some people say some popular girl might date you doesn't mean it's a good idea to get engaged. I fear we'd regret that contract.

All-Stars get paid, especially 23-year old ones. Not worried about paying the players with proven production. It's when you pay guys based on a pinky promise that they'll get better... That's when you get into trouble.

Even replacement all-stars like DLO who suck at defense, score inefficiently and has had only one season where he was an above average player? Not all all-stars get paid big money. What about all-stars like Jameer Nelson, Devin Harris and Mo Williams? Playing in an all-star game doesn't mean you deserve a max deal: Think of Chris Kaman, David Lee, Andrew Bynum, Mehmet Okur, Josh Howard and Brad Miller. KG, KAT and Love deserved max deals, but what about Wolve all-stars like Googs, Wally, Laettner and Luol Deng? D. Rose is a multi-time all star and MVP and he's getting paid the minimum. I'm happy with letting another team overpay for an "all-star" like DLO.

Look at the examples you've provided. Think about the era in which they played in -- mid-range focus, post play, traditionalism. Now think about the era of the NBA that the league is currently in -- pace and space, ball-handling, perimeter shooting. The two eras are not the same. The structure of the league is not the same. Frankly, the overall talent in today's NBA is much better than it was in the early to mid 2000's -- when all of your player examples played. Now, how many of the players you listed were still on their rookie contract when they were named to the All-Star team? Any of them?

Jameer Nelson (26) - No
Devin Harris (25) - No
Mo Williams (26) - No
Chris Kaman (27) - No
David Lee (26) - No
Andrew Bynum (24) - No
Mehmet Okur (27) - No
Josh Howard (26) - Yes
Brad Miller (26) - No

Max contracts for 23-year old All-Stars aren't overpays. That's market value. That's usually a good investment.

B1: I've mentioned this before, but Russell is not an inefficient scorer. He's middle of the pack in scoring efficiency with the likes of Luka Doncic, Demar DeRozan, Trae Young, Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell, and Josh Richardson. It's fair to speculate that he might improve upon his efficiency when playing with more talented players, especially someone like Karl-Anthony Towns.

B2: Using Derrick Rose as an example in this context doesn't help the credibility of your argument. It just shows how far you're having to reach for names that fit your narrative. Rose literally has an inclusion in the CBA because of how good he was and consequently he was paid appropriately.

My point, is I don't give two rats about DLO being in the all star game. He wasn't voted in by fans, players or media, but put in by Adam Silver's office. There were multiple injuries and Silver's office put him in there. I thought Eric Bledsoe was more deserving. But whether or not he deserved it isn't the point. He is just not worth paying the max and losing assets to clear space for. DLO was horrible in the playoffs and he wasn't all that impressive in the regular season, despite being improved over his first three unremarkable years. Not really a fan of his off the court behavior either.

You can continue to say that Russell isn't worth paying the max or losing assets for, but your supporting argument is lacking. That's really what I was demonstrating in my prior response.

It is rare that players of his caliber are even available coming off their rookie contract, and he assuredly would not be if not for Kyrie Irving showing interest in Brooklyn. Again, I don't understand how fans that share your viewpoint think Minnesota is going to substantially improve their roster enough to be competitive in the Western Conference. Risks have to be taken, especially the ones that land you a top-30 player in the league. If not, we might as well start shopping Karl-Anthony Towns to the highest bidder or else he is going to Anthony Davis, Kevin Love his way out of town.

[Lipoli390]

I've seen a lot of talk on this board about how we might be able to get Russell.

Anybody else wary of paying that guy something near a max salary? I need to watch him play more, but I'm worried people feel like we need to try to get him just because of the rumors are out there that we could. Just because some people say some popular girl might date you doesn't mean it's a good idea to get engaged. I fear we'd regret that contract.

All-Stars get paid, especially 23-year old ones. Not worried about paying the players with proven production. It's when you pay guys based on a pinky promise that they'll get better... That's when you get into trouble.

Even replacement all-stars like DLO who suck at defense, score inefficiently and has had only one season where he was an above average player? Not all all-stars get paid big money. What about all-stars like Jameer Nelson, Devin Harris and Mo Williams? Playing in an all-star game doesn't mean you deserve a max deal: Think of Chris Kaman, David Lee, Andrew Bynum, Mehmet Okur, Josh Howard and Brad Miller. KG, KAT and Love deserved max deals, but what about Wolve all-stars like Googs, Wally, Laettner and Luol Deng? D. Rose is a multi-time all star and MVP and he's getting paid the minimum. I'm happy with letting another team overpay for an "all-star" like DLO.

Look at the examples you've provided. Think about the era in which they played in -- mid-range focus, post play, traditionalism. Now think about the era of the NBA that the league is currently in -- pace and space, ball-handling, perimeter shooting. The two eras are not the same. The structure of the league is not the same. Frankly, the overall talent in today's NBA is much better than it was in the early to mid 2000's -- when all of your player examples played. Now, how many of the players you listed were still on their rookie contract when they were named to the All-Star team? Any of them?

Jameer Nelson (26) - No
Devin Harris (25) - No
Mo Williams (26) - No
Chris Kaman (27) - No
David Lee (26) - No
Andrew Bynum (24) - No
Mehmet Okur (27) - No
Josh Howard (26) - Yes
Brad Miller (26) - No

Max contracts for 23-year old All-Stars aren't overpays. That's market value. That's usually a good investment.

B1: I've mentioned this before, but Russell is not an inefficient scorer. He's middle of the pack in scoring efficiency with the likes of Luka Doncic, Demar DeRozan, Trae Young, Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell, and Josh Richardson. It's fair to speculate that he might improve upon his efficiency when playing with more talented players, especially someone like Karl-Anthony Towns.

B2: Using Derrick Rose as an example in this context doesn't help the credibility of your argument. It just shows how far you're having to reach for names that fit your narrative. Rose literally has an inclusion in the CBA because of how good he was and consequently he was paid appropriately.

My point, is I don't give two rats about DLO being in the all star game. He wasn't voted in by fans, players or media, but put in by Adam Silver's office. There were multiple injuries and Silver's office put him in there. I thought Eric Bledsoe was more deserving. But whether or not he deserved it isn't the point. He is just not worth paying the max and losing assets to clear space for. DLO was horrible in the playoffs and he wasn't all that impressive in the regular season, despite being improved over his first three unremarkable years. Not really a fan of his off the court behavior either.

You can continue to say that Russell isn't worth paying the max or losing assets for, but your supporting argument is lacking. That's really what I was demonstrating in my prior response.

It is rare that players of his caliber are even available coming off their rookie contract, and he assuredly would not be if not for Kyrie Irving showing interest in Brooklyn. Again, I don't understand how fans that share your viewpoint think Minnesota is going to substantially improve their roster enough to be competitive in the Western Conference. Risks have to be taken, especially the ones that land you a top-30 player in the league. If not, we might as well start shopping Karl-Anthony Towns to the highest bidder or else he is going to Anthony Davis, Kevin Love his way out of town.

Cam - You've made strong argument for aggressively pursuing Russell. I think you've acknowledged there are risks associated with Russell, but your point is that it's worth the risk to land an all-star caliber young talent to pair with KAT. I agree with you on that to a point. For me, it turns on how much we have to give up. I'd give up a future lottery-protected 1st round along with Teague and perhaps Reynolds and/or KBD. But I wouldn't give up Okogie. I'm just higher on Okogie than you are even though I know you like him. We need as much young high-upside talent on cheap contracts as possible going forward. We could sign Culver and include him rather than Okogie I think, but I don't think I'd do that either.

Where we disagree more significantly is on the thought that we have to land a top-30 player like Russell via trade or free agency or otherwise start shopping KAT to begin a full rebuild. As we both know, landing a top 30 player is not the only way to build around KAT. There's no reason the Wolves can't draft and develop a top 30 player or two to pair with KAT over the first few years of KAT's 5-year deal. The Warriors drafted Curry at #7, Thompson at #11 and Green at #35. Those three formed the core of a team that set the NBA's all-time win record. The Blazers drafted Lillard at #7 and McCollum at #10. The Nuggets drafted Jokic at #41 and Jamal Murray at #6. The Jazz drafted Mitchell at #13 (draft day trade) and Rudy Gobert at #27. The Spurs dynasty was build around the a #1 pick, Duncan, by adding Tony Parker with the 28th pick and Manu with the 57th pick. The list goes on and I know you're aware of all this.

I know that picks are far short of a sure thing, but so is Russell in my view. I've already identified my misgivings about him - (1) the fact that his one all-star caliber season was a contract year; (2) his really bad defense; (3) his character based on his recent idiotic weed possession, his earlier antics with the Lakers and reports I've read about him being a diva. Committing to a 4-year max for him and giving up significant forward-looking assets like a future 1st AND Okogie would be too much for me and tip the balance in favor of relying on the draft/development approach that has worked so well for a lot of teams such as those I mentioned above. The Wolves have Okogie and just drafted Culver at #6, a player I'm not high on but who many respected analysts consider a great prospect. We can pursue young free agent talent like Mudiay who have great upside but haven't put it all together yet to command a big contract. That's what Detroit did in acquiring Chauncey Billups.

So we agree on pursuing Russell to a point. Then we part company and will just have to agree to disagree.

[MikkeMan]

B1: I've mentioned this before, but Russell is not an inefficient scorer. He's middle of the pack in scoring efficiency with the likes of Luka Doncic, Demar DeRozan, Trae Young, Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell, and Josh Richardson. It's fair to speculate that he might improve upon his efficiency when playing with more talented players, especially someone like Karl-Anthony Towns.

Cam, D'Angelo Russell is currently inefficient volume scorer. Out of 43 players last season whom averaged more than 18pts per game, only three were more inefficient than him: Wiggins, Westbrook and Tim Hardaway jr. Players thsy you listed were also pretty inefficient when compared to other volume scorers but even all of them were little more efficient than Russell.

Main reason for his inefficiency is that he draws very few defensive fouls. If he learns that he could improve quite a lot.

[thedoper]

If Okogie is the hill we die on to not get Russell this team is doomed. I like Okogie, but his upside is nowhere near Russell's.

[AbeVigodaLive]

B1: I've mentioned this before, but Russell is not an inefficient scorer. He's middle of the pack in scoring efficiency with the likes of Luka Doncic, Demar DeRozan, Trae Young, Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell, and Josh Richardson. It's fair to speculate that he might improve upon his efficiency when playing with more talented players, especially someone like Karl-Anthony Towns.

Cam, D'Angelo Russell is currently inefficient volume scorer. Out of 43 players last season whom averaged more than 18pts per game, only three were more inefficient than him: Wiggins, Westbrook and Tim Hardaway jr. Players thsy you listed were also pretty inefficient when compared to other volume scorers but even all of them were little more efficient than Russell.

Main reason for his inefficiency is that he draws very few defensive fouls. If he learns that he could improve quite a lot.

This is what I just learned... he doesn't really drive to the hoop. Only 17% of his attempts are within 4 feet. He "settles" for the mid-range or floaters. Last season, he hit 46% of those... but that was easily his high and probably very near his ceiling for efficiency on that shot.

He averaged 18.7 shots per game... but only 2.5 free throws. That's almost Trenton Hassell-esque. And it has to be a big reason why some stats would label him inefficient.



[Note: Even Terrell Brandon averaged more than 2.5 fta per game... ]

[WildWolf2813]

B1: I've mentioned this before, but Russell is not an inefficient scorer. He's middle of the pack in scoring efficiency with the likes of Luka Doncic, Demar DeRozan, Trae Young, Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell, and Josh Richardson. It's fair to speculate that he might improve upon his efficiency when playing with more talented players, especially someone like Karl-Anthony Towns.

Cam, D'Angelo Russell is currently inefficient volume scorer. Out of 43 players last season whom averaged more than 18pts per game, only three were more inefficient than him: Wiggins, Westbrook and Tim Hardaway jr. Players thsy you listed were also pretty inefficient when compared to other volume scorers but even all of them were little more efficient than Russell.

Main reason for his inefficiency is that he draws very few defensive fouls. If he learns that he could improve quite a lot.

This is what I just learned... he doesn't really drive to the hoop. Only 17% of his attempts are within 4 feet. He "settles" for the mid-range or floaters. Last season, he hit 46% of those... but that was easily his high and probably very near his ceiling for efficiency on that shot.

He averaged 18.7 shots per game... but only 2.5 free throws. That's almost Trenton Hassell-esque. And it has to be a big reason why some stats would label him inefficient.



[Note: Even Terrell Brandon averaged more than 2.5 fta per game... ]

Dinwiddie is the main guy on the team who primarily drives to the hoop. The team as a whole was middle of the pack at that (because they shoot so many threes) but Dinwiddie's job was to attack the basket (which also explains partially why Dinwiddie would close out games earlier in the season over Russell)

[WildWolf2813]

If Russell signs with Phoenix, the countdown to Towns being dealt to Phoenix officially begins.

[thedoper]

If Russell signs with Phoenix, the countdown to Towns being dealt to Phoenix officially begins.

If Russell signs with the Lakers the countdown might happen there too. We better be ready to outbid them.

[crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]]

According to woj, celtics are now the frontrunners for kemba.

If that happens, teague woukd be great for Charlotte.

He played college ball there.
They have no point guard on the roster.
Next year is a heavy pg draft, so teagues expiring fits perfectly.

It also likely means that rozier will hit the market as a free agent (dont want him though).