thedoper wrote:Allotting substantial minutes to Culver who has no business being in a professional depth chart at this point seems totally counter-intuitive to a winning culture. Finch has been giving him spot minutes as an alternative Layman a points, I think that is as far as you want to go. Culver barely bumping up his numbers on a team deliberately tanking games isnt going to get us an asset in a trade. The only way for him to change is to actually earn some pt on this shit team, which for someone with his size and athleticism, should theoretically still be possible.
Finch has an unorthodox coaching style that I have to admit I like. He will put a guy in, say Culver, Vando or Layman...but if he sees something he doesn't like, he'll yank him within a minute. We saw it happen Monday when Barnes blew by Culver in his first minute, and Finch benched him. I have no problem with him continuing to throw Culver out there if he senses it's a good matchup, as long as he is willing to pull him right away if it's just not happening for him.
thedoper wrote:Allotting substantial minutes to Culver who has no business being in a professional depth chart at this point seems totally counter-intuitive to a winning culture. Finch has been giving him spot minutes as an alternative Layman a points, I think that is as far as you want to go. Culver barely bumping up his numbers on a team deliberately tanking games isnt going to get us an asset in a trade. The only way for him to change is to actually earn some pt on this shit team, which for someone with his size and athleticism, should theoretically still be possible.
Finch has an unorthodox coaching style that I have to admit I like. He will put a guy in, say Culver, Vando or Layman...but if he sees something he doesn't like, he'll yank him within a minute. We saw it happen Monday when Barnes blew by Culver in his first minute, and Finch benched him. I have no problem with him continuing to throw Culver out there if he senses it's a good matchup, as long as he is willing to pull him right away if it's just not happening for him.
Based on the few games I've watched this year, nobody has to worry. They are not going to start rattling off enough wins to move the needle for the draft. Nobody is "pulling back the reigns" on this roster. They are simply not good enough to win. The only hurdle I see this time of year is that other teams will be intentionally trying to lose. So the real question is..."Can this team trying to win actually beat a team trying to lose". I think it will be toss up most nights.
thedoper wrote:Allotting substantial minutes to Culver who has no business being in a professional depth chart at this point seems totally counter-intuitive to a winning culture. Finch has been giving him spot minutes as an alternative Layman a points, I think that is as far as you want to go. Culver barely bumping up his numbers on a team deliberately tanking games isnt going to get us an asset in a trade. The only way for him to change is to actually earn some pt on this shit team, which for someone with his size and athleticism, should theoretically still be possible.
Finch has an unorthodox coaching style that I have to admit I like. He will put a guy in, say Culver, Vando or Layman...but if he sees something he doesn't like, he'll yank him within a minute. We saw it happen Monday when Barnes blew by Culver in his first minute, and Finch benched him. I have no problem with him continuing to throw Culver out there if he senses it's a good matchup, as long as he is willing to pull him right away if it's just not happening for him.
I agree and I love it. As much as I want Culver to get lots of minutes to help with my tanking strategy and possibly enhance his trade value, Finch is making the right basketball decisions when he yanks him.
I see the Wolves winning at least 5 of their remaining 20 games. I see them winning their games against Houston and Detroit as well as both of their games against the Kings. That's four sure wins. Other winnable games include Golden State, Chicago, New Orleans and Memphis. I figure the Wolves will win at least one of those other four games. Five more wins and the Wolves end up with 17 wins on the season. That should be just good enough to finish in the bottom three.
So I know I am going to probably be in the minority here but I want the Wolves to keep winning games not because of a winning culture (what I do think its important) but it eliminates the worst case scenario. So based on media reports this is a 5 person draft and then their is a dip (Obviously the there will be good players taken after 5 but there are 5 potential top tier prospects as prospects by the national media) those 5 are Cunningham, Suggs, Green, Mobley and Kuminga. So in my it will be great if the Wolves end up in the top 3 obviously or don't have to give up our pick at 4 or 5. I am cool giving up the pick at 6 or later because the Wolves are going to lose their pick this year or next and if we lose the pick this year at least we have the assets of our 2022 1st and on to trade and that would not be the case if the Wolves were drafting in the top 3.
So in my opinion a great result is the Wolves draft in the top 3 or give their pick up after 6. So here are the odds of that happening if the Wolves end up with the worst record to the 6th worst record (I think 6th is the best the wolves can finish but very unlikely.)
1st: Best Case Getting top 3 pick: 40.1% Worst case picks 4 or 5: 59.9% Medium result 6 or later:0%
2nd: Best Case Getting top 3 pick: 40.1% Worst case Picks 4 or 5 39.8% Medium result 6 or later: 20.1%
3rd: Best Case Getting top 3 pick: 40.1% Worst Case Picks 4 or 5 26.8% Medium result 6 or later: 33%
4th: Best Case Getting top 3 pick: 36.6% Worst Case Picks 4 or 5 18.6% Medium result 6 or later: 44.7%
5th: Best Case Getting top 3 pick: 29.7% Worst Case Pick 4 or 5 12.3% Medium result 6 or later: 57.9%
6th: Best Case Getting top 3 pick 29.5% Worst Case Pick 4 or 5 10.1% Medium result 6 or later: 60.4%
So winning games in my opinion does not do us any harm. The only terrible result is if the pick goes to the Warriors at 4 or 5. The more the Wolves win the more the worst case scenario can happen. Now will the Wolves win enough games to move up in the standing who knows. but I know I will not be complaining if the Wolves do end up with the 4th, 5th or 6th worst record in the NBA. (As we saw tonight that is going to be hard to do)
Interesting take, Kek. Nice work. This is an example of why I like this message board - smart take from a different angle that I hadn't thought about.
With the Wizards win over the Warriors last night, i think it's not a 4-team race for the bottom three: Wolves, Houston, Detroit and Orlando.
When you compare these four teams, the Wolves clearly have the most talented roster by far. The Wolves currently have 13 wins. I see 8 winnable games remaining on the Wolves schedule, including 2 games against the now hapless Kings along with games against the Rockets, Warriors, Pelicans, Magic, Pistons and even the Grizzlies. Even if they don't win all 8 of these, they're bound to get one surprising win against one of the good teams in the League - maybe the last game of the season against the Mavs if the Mavs have nothing to play for by that time. At a minimum, I see the Wolves winning 6 of their remaining 19 games. You can see things coming together. Finch is a good head coach and, while I'm out a fan of DLO, his return definitely improves the team significantly. Winning 6 more games would get the Wolves win total to 19.
Orlando probably has the worst roster. They currently have 17 wins. I can't envision the Magic Orlando winning more than 1 or 2 of their remaining games and they could easily go winless the rest of the season. I think they'll win one more game and end up with 18 wins.
Houston is only a game ahead of the Wolves with 14 wins right now. I think they have 4 winnable games left, including two games against the Warriors along with games against Orlando and Minnesota. I think they'll beat Orlando and maybe one more of those 4 games. So I see Houston ending up with 14 or 16 wins.
Meanwhile, I see Detroit having 5 winnable games left against the Thunder, Wizards, Cavs, Orlando and Memphis. I think they'll probably win two of those - Orlando and either Cleveland or Washington. That would put Detroit at 18 wins.
If I'm right, the Wolves will end up with the 4th worst record. According to your analysis, that might be optimal. The Wolves would still have a nearly 40% chance of getting a top-three pick, but the Warriors would have a significantly smaller chance of getting a 4th or 5th pick (18.6% instead of 26.8% if the Wolves end up with the 3rd worst record).
Yeah, terrific analysis by Kekgeek. I have to agree with lip that Orlando's roster is so bad, the hapless Wolves have a decent chance of passing them...the May game between the two teams may decide it. On the other hand, Detroit is surprisingly playing some good ball recently...better than us probably...so I don't know if we will pick up the 3 1/2 games we are currently behind them. So my guess is the Wolves will finish with the 3rd worst record and have their 40% chance of keeping their pick. And GS will only have about a 1 out of 4 chance of getting the 4th or 5th pick still.
More reason to try to keep winning to see if this roster actually has a chance of being good.
FNG wrote:Yeah, terrific analysis by Kekgeek. I have to agree with lip that Orlando's roster is so bad, the hapless Wolves have a decent chance of passing them...the May game between the two teams may decide it. On the other hand, Detroit is surprisingly playing some good ball recently...better than us probably...so I don't know if we will pick up the 3 1/2 games we are currently behind them. So my guess is the Wolves will finish with the 3rd worst record and have their 40% chance of keeping their pick. And GS will only have about a 1 out of 4 chance of getting the 4th or 5th pick still.
More reason to try to keep winning to see if this roster actually has a chance of being good.
You're right about Detroit playing surprisingly well lately. I didn't expect that to happen. But I'd agree that Detroit is our best hope of remaining in the bottom three. But we appear to have an easier schedule than Detroit going forward - based on the number of games left against the least formidable teams in the League.
Even though I favor a soft tank to ensure a bottom three finish, I find myself rooting for the Wolves every game and ending up disappointed when we lose. I just want Detroit to stay hot and win at least 4 of their 5 remaining winnable games. That should be enough to secure a bottom three finish for the Wolves. But if we end up with the 4th worst record, our odds of a top 3 pick remain almost as good.
